Harper’s ‘old-stock Canadians’ line is part deliberate strategy: pollster (Ekos)

2015/09/24 Leave a comment

More on the intent behind ‘old-stock Canadians:’

Conservative leader Stephen Harper’s line about “old-stock Canadians” during  the Thursday leaders’ debate was a deliberate move to energize the Conservative base on an emotional topic, a pollster says.

Frank Graves, president of EKOS Research, says that kind of divisional tactic has been used successfully in the past.

“It’s part of the deliberate strategy to sort Harper’s constituency from the rest of the electorate,” Graves told CBC Montreal’s Daybreak. “It creates a sense of us versus others.”

Graves describes Harper’s comment as a “dog whistle”: something meant to be heard by a target audience, but misheard or ignored by the rest.

Harper made the comment while addressing health care for immigrants and refugees.

Source: Harper’s ‘old-stock Canadians’ line is part deliberate strategy: pollster – Montreal – CBC News

The contrary view is expressed by Andrew Coyne (Andrew Coyne: Harper’s ‘old stock’ faux pas was little more than that) and Lysiane Gagnon (In Quebec, old stock is just a fact of life) who maintain that it simply used in a descriptive sense. But words matter, and are chosen for both explicit and implicit messaging, with ‘old-stock’ having an implicit message in the political context.

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Le niqab, source de discorde: Election positioning

2015/09/24 Leave a comment

Further to Chantal Hébert’s speculation that a future Conservative government would invoke the notwithstanding clause to avoid a Charter challenge to a niqab ban (Proposed niqab ban could be thin edge of the wedge: Hébert):

La délicate question du port du niqab s’est imposée dans la campagne électorale depuis que la Cour d’appel fédérale a confirmé que le gouvernement conservateur n’avait pas l’autorité d’empêcher, par une simple directive ministérielle, le port de ce voile aux cérémonies de citoyenneté. Les troupes de Stephen Harper ont porté le jugement en appel à la Cour suprême et promis de légiférer dans les 100 premiers jours s’ils sont réélus.

M. Mulcair appuiera-t-il une loi conservatrice ? « Pas plus que je voterais en faveur d’une loi qui vous enlèverait la liberté de presse, voyons donc », a lancé le chef du NPD à la journaliste qui venait de lui poser la question. « Un gouvernement ne peut pas enlever votre liberté d’expression ou la liberté de presse, pas plus qu’on ne peut interférer dans d’autres libertés. » L’obligation de se dévoiler en privé pour s’identifier, avant la cérémonie, est jugée suffisante par M. Mulcair.

Justin Trudeau est du même avis. Le chef libéral a fait valoir que personne au pays ne lui avait parlé de cette question et il a dénoncé « ces propositions de [Stephen] Harper, de [Gilles] Duceppe, en matière de division et de peur ».

C’est que les chefs conservateur et bloquiste se trouvent dans le camp adverse, voulant tous deux interdire le niqab pour le serment de citoyenneté. Dès la décision de la Cour d’appel fédérale tombée, l’équipe de Stephen Harper a aussitôt annoncé qu’elle prendrait la voix législative pour empêcher qu’une femme puisse demeurer voilée pendant la durée de la cérémonie.

Qu’adviendrait-il si la loi conservatrice ne réussisait pas le test des tribunaux ? Gilles Duceppe « serait pour le “ nonobstant ” si jamais une telle loi contrevenait à la Charte [canadienne des droits et libertés] ». Car la clause dérogatoire, permettant de l’outrepasser, a été prévue « justement pour faire face à des situations semblables », a fait valoir le chef bloquiste.

Stephen Harper a évité de s’avancer aussi loin, évitant soigneusement de répondre à la question. Le chef conservateur s’est plutôt dit « convaincu que nous avons la position correcte. […] Ça reflète nos valeurs et l’égalité des hommes et des femmes au Canada ». La clause dérogatoire n’a été utilisée qu’à une seule reprise, par Québec pour maintenir la Charte de la langue française.

Source: Le niqab, source de discorde | Le Devoir

Manon Cornellier’s excellent commentary:

Il n’est pas question d’ignorer la montée des intégrismes et leur manifestation dans l’espace public, mais ce n’est pas en transformant quelques femmes en chair à canon électorale qu’on fera avancer les choses. Quand, dans ce genre de débat, des chefs manquent de hauteur de vue et ne cernent pas la juste mesure du problème, ils alimentent, qu’ils le veuillent ou non, les préjugés contre les musulmans et les Arabes, et c’est désolant.

Voile politique

And one of the better English language summaries:

Gilles Duceppe Favours Notwithstanding Clause To Ban Niqab At Citizenship Ceremonies

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Young Muslim voters matter more than ever

2015/09/23 Leave a comment

Interesting contrast between the first generation and the second generation in terms of political engagement.

Canadian Muslims form between 15 and 20 percent in six ridings (Toronto’s Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga Centre and Don Valley East; Montreal’s Saint-Laurent and Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel; and, Ottawa South):

Yet for many Canadian Muslim youth, this country is the only home they have ever known.

Unlike many of their parents, who migrated to the country in the ’70s and ’80s, more than one in four Muslims in Canada were born here, according to a report published earlier this year by Ottawa-based researcher Daood Hamdani for The Canadian Dawn Foundation.

“Both my feet are planted here. There is no ‘back home’ for me,” says 37-year-old Mohammed Hashim of Mississauga, Ont.

‘I want Canada to go back to what it was.’— Sanaa Ali-Mohammed, 26

That’s a sentiment that the older generation doesn’t always share, Ali-Mohammed says. “For my parents, I think it’s more of a transactional relationship. They’ll be good citizens but there’s always this undertone of ‘we don’t really belong here.'”

Islamic Institute of Toronto president Fareed Amin is a first-generation immigrant to Canada and has seen this sentiment among his age group first-hand. “Many of them come from countries where whether you participate or not doesn’t make a difference, so sometimes there’s that skepticism to participate in the political process .”

Some new Canadians also carry with them the view that political involvement is potentially dangerous because of the tenuous political climates they left behind.

“I don’t think our young people have the same baggage that some of the first-generation immigrants have,” Amin says. “They’re born-and-bred Canadians.”

Back in Brampton, Ali says part of being Canadian is the freedom to be whoever you are. “My parents chose to come here because you can’t always be that in Pakistan.”

His hope for the election? “I want Canada to go back to what it was; the country my parents came to.”

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Some 33 federal ridings with more than 50 per cent visible minority population up for grabs on Oct. 19 | hilltimes.com

2015/09/22 Leave a comment

Further to the analysis in my book, Multiculturalism in Canada: Evidence and Anecdote, this Hill Times article provides polling results in these ridings along with some riding vignettes that provide colour to the somewhat dry stats:

Based on the transposition of votes analysis conducted by Elections Canada, which shows the results for the new ridings had the boundaries been in place in the 2011 election, Conservatives would have won 17 of the 33, and the NDP and the Liberals would have carried eight each. The analysis also indicated that in 20 of the 33 ridings, the margin of victory for the winning parties would have been 10 per cent or less.

In the Oct. 19 election, there are a total of 338 ridings up for grabs, 30 more than the last election, to reflect the population increase in the country between 2003 and 2012.

Most national polling numbers last week indicated that the three major national parties were in a statistical dead heat. If this trend continues, the next government will be a minority government in which every seat will count.

A Nanos poll on Thursday showed that the Liberals had the support of 31 per cent of decided voters, with the NDP and Conservatives tied at 30 per cent and the Green Party at six per cent.

According to an online national poll by Innovative Research of 2,121 Canadians conducted between Sept. 4 and Sept. 10, the three national parties were running neck and neck with the NDP support at 31 per cent, Liberals at 30 per cent, Conservatives at 28 and the Green Party at six per cent.

In the 33 ridings where the visible minority population is more than 50 per cent, the online poll indicated that the Liberals were leading the pack with 36.6 per cent, the Conservatives next with 33 percent, the NDP at 22.3 per cent and the Green Party at 7.1 per cent.

In an interview last week, Mr. Griffith said the strategic significance of the 33 ridings in this election is evident from the fact that the national party leaders have frequently visited the GTA and Vancouver areas in recent months.

“Leaders seem to be spending a fair amount of time in these ridings. It’s part of every party’s electoral strategy,” said Mr. Griffith.

For those interested in the riding list taken from my book: Visible Minority Ridings and Religious Minority Ridings.

Source: Some 33 federal ridings with more than 50 per cent visible minority population up for grabs on Oct. 19 | hilltimes.com

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Visible minority communities and the Election

2015/09/21 Leave a comment

From New Canadian Media, some good articles on different communities and the 2015 election.

Pulse: Arab Media Tack Conservative outlines support for the Government’s position among some Arab communities (primarily Syrian and Iraqi Canadian).

Chinese Canadians Step Up to Fill Representation Gap as there have been fewer MPs than their population warrants. A Willingness to Elect People Not Born in Canada explores the relative success of Canadian Sikhs, reflecting both absolute numbers and their relative concentration in a number of ridings in the Lower Mainland and the GTA.

Lastly, Where are the (Ethnic) Women? analyses the number of visible minority women candidates, showing that between 16 and 21 percent (depending on the party) of all women candidates are visible minorities, slightly greater than the number women visible minorities who are Canadian citizens (and thus who can vote).

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Confusing vote rules for expats ‘ridiculous;’ Elections Canada denies blame

2015/09/19 1 Comment

More on expatriate voting and the rules that apply:

The finger-pointing highlights the confusing rules in play, which include:

  • Long-term expats, with some exceptions such as diplomats, cannot vote from abroad;
  • Long-term expats can vote in person at an advance poll or on election day in the riding they lived in before leaving Canada;
  • Long-term expats cannot vote under rules allowing resident Canadians, who will be away during the voting period, to vote at their local returning office;
  • Long-term expats can run in any riding in the country, if they meet other basic requirements;
  • Long-term expats who become candidates cannot vote for themselves, unless running in the riding in which they last lived before leaving Canada.

The current situation is patently absurd, O’Kurley said.

“All this ridiculous hair-splitting over time and place would be so unnecessary if the only litmus test for voting was citizenship,” O’Kurley said. “Policies that suppress Canadians’ ability to participate in their democracy are not worthy of Canadian democratic leadership in the world.”

O’Kurley noted that Elections Canada facilitates voting for long-term expats who work for the Canadian government, but not if they work for a private Canadian company.

Elections Canada conceded the legislation can be confusing but said it only enforces rules made by government _ and it’s up to government to fix any problems.

While I disagree with Kurley (perhaps a better test would be citizenship and filing a Canadian tax return would a future government wish to go down that road), making the rules clearer and more consistent should be doable.

Source: Confusing vote rules for expats ‘ridiculous;’ Elections Canada denies blame

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Beware campaign promises: how immigration policy makers are constrained in what they can do | Canadian Immigrant

2015/09/19 1 Comment

Steven Meurrens on evaluating immigration-related campaign promises:

During this election campaign, when Canada’s political parties make commitments to introduce new immigration programs, reduce processing times, admit as many privately sponsored refugees as possible, remove restrictions on the number of Canadians who can sponsor their parents, or even to allow every Canadian to sponsor a family member from overseas, a discerning voter must analyze how that party plans to manage the program within the above-mentioned limitations. Even if you’re not yet a citizen and can’t vote, you have the right to ask questions and be part of the dialogue.

For example, if a political party promises to expand the family class so that every Canadian citizen and/or permanent resident can sponsor a relative, then a discerning voter — before getting too excited — must ask which element of the impossible trinity will be missing? Is that party committing to a massive, uncontrolled increase in Canada’s population? If not, then will the new program have very slow processing times or a limit on the number of Canadians who can actually sponsor their relative through caps, lotteries or an expression of interest system? If it does, then how many people will actually benefit from the program?

If the political party tries to dodge the issue or pretend that it does not exist, then you will know that it is either hiding the devil in the details, or simply making pandering commitments without having thought the issue through.

My goal in writing the above is to help make sure that you don’t fall for it.

Source: Beware campaign promises: how immigration policy makers are constrained in what they can do | Canadian Immigrant

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Escaping the election cocoon

2015/09/12 Leave a comment

Good piece by Scott Gilmore on the risks of living in a bubble (I try to ensure my newsfeed includes a range of perspectives). As always, it starts from mindfulness of one’s own biases and applies to more than just politics).

Sound advice:

Unfortunately, our habit of tuning out ideas and voices we don’t like is part of our biological programming. “Confirmation bias,” the tendency to search for information that confirms our beliefs and to remember it longer, is a well-documented and inescapable element of our behavior. As a result, we instinctively tailor our universe to limit the emotionally upsetting views that contradict us. Until recently, the shortage of media choices made this hard to do. Left or right, we all watched the same suppertime newscast. Now, it’s finally possible to be bound in a nutshell, and count ourselves kings of infinite space, because we can avoid any bad dreams.

This has been very apparent in the refugee debate. A significant number of Canadians are opposed to allowing in more Syrians, due to the possibility that they would include Islamic State supporters, or that they would spread Islam or because we should be helping our own poor first. If you listen to a specific set of radio stations, read certain blogs and interact with people similar to yourself on Facebook, these ideas aren’t only defensible, they are overwhelmingly obvious.

Likewise, another group of Canadians who subscribe to different newspapers, listen to the CBC and read the Huffington Post are equally convinced of the self evident fact that there is a clear need for Canada to do more, and accepting far more refugees would neither strain our economy nor our social fabric. In reality, both sides are filtering out important pieces of information, making it impossible to see the full picture. Which is why neither group can grasp how anyone could possibly be so asinine as to dispute what is so clearly self-evident.

This is bad, and not just because it prevents us from having civil conversations about Canada’s refugee and immigration policies. It creates a lack of empathy that leads us to denigrate and dismiss the opinions of others. The leaders of all political parties, who are equally unable to acknowledge they do not have a monopoly on the truth, demonstrate this attitude repeatedly.

Our self-made cocoons also impair our ability to make intelligent decisions. In this election, most voters will not watch a single debate, read any of the party platforms or attend any campaign events. They don’t need to. They already know whom they’re going to vote for and, coincidentally, everyone else in his or her cocoon is voting the same way.

And for those we ultimately elect? Their own filters will make their governing decisions less effective. Ruling parties of all stripes tend only to listen to academics who support their agenda, only attend rallies that contain true believers, only read newspapers that  endorse their policies and only engage constituents who already voted for them. If it looks as if the Conservative party has only been thinking about its base for the last nine years, it’s because that’s literally true.

There are ways to cut through these cocoons, however. Just by being aware that you are constantly self-censoring the information that reaches you helps. You can also consciously resist the urge to mute the outspoken critic on Twitter, or unfollow the Facebook friend who shares articles in support of that politician you loathe. One step further would be to actually read some of those articles, or pick up a newspaper you wouldn’t normally read, no matter how much of a rag you think it is.

Source: Escaping the election cocoon

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Parties pigeonhole visible minority candidates

2015/09/12 1 Comment

Visible_minorities_Candidates_2004-11Good analysis and necessary to complement the under-representation of women (see Debate about the women’s debate missed a bigger point: Antoinia Maioni) by Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant and Erin Tolley:

So far, we have heard quite a bit about the selection of women and Indigenous candidates, but comparatively little about visible minority candidates. This is surprising given parties’ efforts to appeal to visible minority voters and Canada’s increasing racial diversity.

Visible minorities now make up 19 per cent of the Canadian population. The proportion of candidates with visible minority backgrounds is basically unchanged since 2004 — hovering around 9 per cent — even though the proportion of visible minorities in Canada has steadily increased.

In 110 of the country’s 338 ridings, visible minorities make up 20 per cent or more of the population, up from 90 ridings in 2011. The visible minority population is thus significant in both magnitude and scope. Even so, just 13.5 per cent of candidates nominated for the three major parties so far have visible minority backgrounds. That’s 131 out of 964 nominated candidates, with 50 nominations still to come.

It is not just about absolute numbers though. Importantly, in 54 per cent of ridings (183 of 338), there isn’t a single visible minority candidate running for any of the three major parties. In those ridings with incomplete nominations, 11 per cent (36 of 338) so far have only white candidates on the ticket. In other words, it is possible that in nearly two-thirds of the country’s ridings, ballots will not include a competitive visible minority candidate.

Although many of these all-white contests are in rural ridings with small visible minority populations, many are not. In Scarborough-Guildwood, for example, visible minorities make up 68 per cent of the population, but the candidates for the three competitive parties are all white (although, notably, the Conservative candidate is a Dutch immigrant). In Ajax, Chris Alexander, the Minister of Immigration and Citizenship, is running against two other white competitors.

Meanwhile, in eight ridings, three visible minority candidates will square off against one another; in these ridings, the visible minority population averages 74 per cent. This suggests that parties’ wholehearted endorsement of visible minority candidacies only occurs in a handful of ridings where visible minority voters are in the overwhelming majority. At the same time, parties clearly have no problem running an entirely white slate of candidates in ridings with large visible minority populations.

The strategic placement of visible minority candidates in only the most diverse ridings lulls us into thinking that our politics is inclusive, while simultaneously capping the number of seats that visible minority candidates might ever win. Not only is this contrary to Canada’s multicultural ethos, but it is a flawed electoral strategy.

Our own research shows that white voters are about as open to visible minority candidates as they are to white candidates. When visible minority candidates run, they can win, even outside the most racially diverse ridings. But parties tend to limit the electoral prospects of visible minority candidates by pitting them against each other and nominating them primarily in the most racially diverse ridings.

The one qualification to their sound analysis lies in using the number of visible minorities that are also Canadian citizens, making the benchmark 15 rather than 19 percent used.

Source: Parties pigeonhole visible minority candidates | Toronto Star

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Débat dans Mont-Royal: Israël au coeur des échanges

2015/09/04 Leave a comment

Diaspora politics in action (Mont-Royal is 30.7 percent Canadian Jews):

Les personnes portant la kippa se comptaient par centaines dans la salle remplie à craquer d’une synagogue de Côte-des-Neiges hier soir où elles étaient venues entendre les candidats des trois principaux partis débattre d’économie, de langue et d’Israël.

C’est dans cette circonscription où le scrutin s’est révélé très serré en 2011 que Stephen Harper avait lancé sa campagne il y a un mois, dans l’espoir de conquérir le fief libéral longtemps détenu par le libéral Irwin Cutler.

À tour de rôle, les candidats du Parti libéral et du Parti conservateur, qui portaient tous les deux la kippa, ont croisé le fer sur la question israélienne.

«Je suis fier d’être Juif. Mon entreprise a des bureaux en Israël, j’y suis allé souvent. Je vais me battre pour Israël !», a lancé Anthony Housefather, le candidat libéral et actuel maire de Côte-Saint-Luc.

Sans s’en prendre à son adversaire libéral, le candidat conservateur a concentré ses attaques sur le chef Justin Trudeau, dont la «boussole morale varie avec le vent».

«Israël est certainement devenu un sujet important de cette élection, il n’y a aucun doute. Mais de dire que la position du Parti libéral sur Israël est la même que celle du Parti conservateur de Stephen Harper est vraiment tiré par les cheveux», a-t-il déclaré.

Le candidat conservateur a remis en question l’approche plus nuancée prônée par Justin Trudeau au sujet de la politique étrangère canadienne.

«Qu’est-ce que “nuance” signifie? Est-ce que ça veut dire que le Canada devrait diminuer son soutien à Israël? Est-ce que c’est ça que Justin Trudeau veut?», a-t-il lancé sous les applaudissements.

«L’appui du Parti libéral à l’endroit d’Israël est sans équivoque. Il n’y a aucune hésitation», a répété son vis-à-vis libéral.

Robert Libman a été chaudement applaudi par la foule lorsqu’il a ardemment critiqué l’accord sur le nucléaire de l’Iran, « pays qui veut détruire Israël».

Devant les attaques incessantes contre son chef, le candidat libéral s’est même senti obligé de préciser que le Parti libéral «ne support[ait] pas le régime en Iran».

«L’Iran est la plus grande menace du monde, je vais tout faire pour éviter que l’Iran n’obtienne la bombe nucléaire», s’est-il exclamé, également applaudi par une bonne partie des quelque 500 électeurs.

Le candidat du Nouveau parti démocratique (NPD) Mario Jacinto Rimbao, un membre bien en vue de l’importante communauté philippine de la circonscription s’est toutefois fait chahuter en évoquant la position néodémocrate sur l’accord iranien.

Source: Débat dans Mont-Royal: Israël au coeur des échanges | Louis-Samuel Perron | Élections fédérales

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