Canada’s latest immigration data revealed: Here’s what happened after a year of seismic changes

Good summary, will be issuing my quarterly update shortly:

…These immigration statistics have been closely watched, with critics arguing the Liberal government’s high immigration intake has contributed to Canada’s runaway population growth and is straining the housing market and health-care system.

In response, the government slashed the 2025 intakes of new permanent residents by 21 per cent to 395,000; new study permit holders by 10 per cent to 305,900; and new work permit holders by 16 per cent to 367,750.

The public data had not been updated this summer, drawing criticism from the Conservative party over the lack of transparency.

“How many illegal border crossings have we had? How many more asylum claims have piled on to an already backlogged wait-list? How many more permits have the Liberals handed out that continue to overwhelm our housing, health-care system and job market?” MP Michelle Rempel Garner, the Conservative party’s immigration critic, said in a statement earlier this month. 

“Whatever the numbers are, Canadians have a right to know.”

According to the Immigration Department, 36,417 new international students arrived in Canada from January to June, down from 125,034 in the first six months of 2024. The number of new work permit holders also dropped respectively to 119,234 from 245,137.

“The number of new students and workers arriving to Canada is declining — a clear sign that the measures we’ve put in place are working,” it said. “This downward trend reflects our commitment to a well-managed and sustainable immigration system.”

The number of asylum claimants, which has drawn attention since U.S. President Donald Trump was elected and made anti-immigration policies a key part of his agenda, also showed a downward trend. From January to June, 57,440 new claims were referred to the refugee board, down from 91,540 over the same period last year.

However, the number of immigration applications in the system has kept growing since March from 1,976,700 permanent and temporary residence files in the queue — including 779,900 that surpassed service standards and are deemed backlogged — to 2,222,600 on July 31, with backlogged cases rising to 901,700. 

As of July, there were 291,975 asylum claims pending a decision by the refugee board, up 25 per cent from 232,751 a year ago July.

Source: Canada’s latest immigration data revealed: Here’s what happened after a year of seismic changes

Falice Chin: Is Canada quietly becoming like the Arab Gulf States when it comes to relying on foreign labour? 

Just asking the question highlights some of the issues:

…Canada’s version is more humane. Our laws offer more protections, and the “low” wages are higher. Foreign workers also don’t make up the bulk of our labour force, but the direction of travel is uncomfortably familiar. The Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) has grown from a seasonal stopgap into a structural pillar for industries from agriculture to warehousing.

And, like in Qatar or the UAE, it’s creating a permanent underclass of workers who are essential to our economy but never fully part of our society.

By design or not, the program gradually reinforces Canadians to devalue the work itself—treating certain jobs, and the people who do them, as disposable.

As Canada tweaks its immigration system, pressure is coming from multiple sides: labour advocates pushing for stronger protections, and a growing anti-immigrant sentiment accusing these workers of “stealing” domestic jobs.

The temptation is to abolish the system entirely, a move that would affect some 140,000 foreign workers across Canada.

But that would be disastrous for the economy….

The harder part to fix

Policy tweaks can improve conditions for both employers and employees, but they won’t touch the deeper problem.

As long as we see certain work as “someone else’s job”—fit only for people from “somewhere else”—we will keep importing workers to do it.

That mindset breeds disposability, the quiet assumption that people doing this work are interchangeable and less deserving of full belonging.

“If you have served tables, you’ll be nice to your server later when you have a different job, right?” Connelly explained. “Or if you’ve had a job cleaning up a campground, you’re going to be very tidy next time you camp there as a customer, right? So, yeah, I think there’s value in all this work. I think there’s something to be said for all of us having this type of job.”

On this point, the two experts agree.

“Fundamentally as a society, when we’re doing our workforce development strategies—whether it be the provincial or federal—consider the fact that we do need individuals in the restaurants…We do need builders as well as engineers as well as IT,” Santini said.

“I don’t know where this current government is going with AI and clean technology,” she continued. “But that element still requires the plumbers, still requires the electricians, still requires the machinists and the cleaners.”

A little self-awareness is needed

In 2022, I returned to Qatar a decade after my stint ended—not as a foreign worker, but as a soccer fan cheering for Canada’s men’s World Cup run.

Scanning headlines and social media posts from afar, I couldn’t help but notice the self-righteous tone in how Canadians condemned the Qatari government for its treatment of foreign workers, particularly the predominantly South Asians who built the country’s shiny stadiums.i

Officially, about 40 workers died, but other estimates range from the hundreds to as high as 6,500.

It’s true that Canada’s workplace fatality rates are much lower, regardless of which stat you believe.

But they’re not zero.

There’s no public tally isolating work-related deaths among TFWs in Canada. Given that these workers are heavily concentrated in agriculture, it’s reasonable to assume that some are among the roughly 62 farm-related fatalities per year recorded nationally.

And when I hear the callous way some Canadians talk about TFWs, it’s hard not to think of the attitudes I saw among some Qatari nationals.

Connelly pinpointed the sentiment perfectly.

“They would have this expectation that these workers should be grateful,” she said. “It wasn’t enough that they just work and be good workers and finish their work and then get a different job. They wanted them to be grateful for this opportunity.”

There is a way forward that keeps the TFWP, treats workers with dignity, and meets employers’ needs. But the most urgent reform is in how we value the work itself, and the people who do it.

Source: Falice Chin: Is Canada quietly becoming like the Arab Gulf States when it comes to relying on foreign labour?

Thompson: Trump’s attempt to control the Smithsonian is an attempt to control the narrative of America

Another sign of division, ignorance and decline…

…Mr. Trump accused the nation’s museums of becoming too “woke,” presumably under the Obama and Biden administrations. But the “New Museology” tradition has a longer trajectory and was rarely led by political elites. Beginning in the 1960s, cultural institutions were pushed by social movements to confront whose histories they highlight and whose they erase. What followed was not a top-down, coordinated political agenda, but rather a slow, uneven shift in the professional practice of curators, as civil society demanded a rethinking of what is considered part of the canon and a reckoning with what it means for cultural institutions to truly represent the nation and its complicated, often violent history. 

It is often said that history is written by the victors. In his 1995 book Silencing the Past, Michel-Rolph Trouillot argues that collective memory is not fixed; it is forged. National narratives are curated through a malleable process shaped as much by remembrance and reverence as erasure and forgetting. Over the past few decades, progressives have found ways to revise national stories to include those who were once marginalized and excluded. Conservatives now seek to do the same, but with the added force of the presidency, able to swiftly, decisively, unilaterally dismantle changes that were never truly hegemonic to begin with. 

Yet national museums, libraries, archives, and performing arts centres remain the capillaries of state power. They are neither the beginning nor the end of the cultural sphere, which has long been animated most auspiciously by those on the margins. As Richard Iton wrote in his 2008 book, In Search of the Black Fantastic, when the excluded were locked out of legislatures, banks and bureaucracies, they instead infiltrated and redefined the realm of popular culture, creating vibrant counter-publics that operate alongside, against, and often in subterfuge of the formal political sphere. 

There will always be efforts to control the narrative of the American nation – through curricula, history books, university campuses, museums, monuments, and even the names of mountains. Sometimes they will succeed, but never fully. When folks on the margins were written out of the official histories of the nation, we told our own stories in our own ways, and those stories survived to bear witness to a resurgence. Art lives in the realm of ideas, discourse, culture and identity: powerful, collective forces that cannot be eliminated by presidential decree. 

Source: Trump’s attempt to control the Smithsonian is an attempt to control the narrative of America

Gaucher: Here’s why Canada’s parents and grandparents reunification program is problematic

Absent, of course, is any real discussion of the various trade-offs between different categories and classes, demographics and impact on the broader population. It’s not just about the needs of migrant families:

…Our preliminary research on grandparent sponsorship explores how elected officials consider the place of migrant grandparents in Canadian society. We’ve so far found they regard permanent family class migration as “good for business” as it attracts economic migrants. At the same time, elected officials believe that certain dependants monopolize health and social safety nets. 

Grandparents, in particular, are treated by governments as human liabilities who must be admitted “responsibly.” 

Admitting grandparents to Canada is tied to their perceived ability to support their sponsors by performing unpaid domestic labour. Our research has found elected officials celebrate sponsored grandparents for the substantial unpaid care work they provide like meal preparation, child care and cleaning. 

In a recent survey on grandparent sponsorship, sponsors describe the unpaid work conducted by grandparents as essential to their participation in the Canadian workforce.

Migrant grandparents are also positioned as providers of cultural care for their grandchildren. Our research draws attention to elected officials often invoking memories of their own migrant grandparents passing along languages, practices and values that shaped their unique cultural identities. 

Despite the benefits migrant grandparents provide, sponsored grandparents are consistently suspected of taking advantage of Canada’s health care and social welfare systems. This is why the super visa is promoted as an alternative pathway. 

Dependent on sponsors

Grandparents who come to Canada through the super visa are financially reliant on their sponsors. Even though the government recognizes that the number of sponsored grandparents applying for old age security is relatively small, treating migrant grandparents as economic burdens allows governments to justify caps and application pauses on PGP sponsorship.

Contrary to governments’ framing of the super visa as aligning with migrants’ families demands for temporary care, our research shows that grandparents often resort to humanitarian and compassionate applications to obtain permanent residence once their super visa has expired. In these cases, their ability to perform care work is further scrutinized.

In terms of grandparent sponsorship, care is largely understood as temporary and one-directional — in other words, migrant grandparents are welcomed when they provide care, but are seen as liabilities when they need care themselves. 

Prioritizing the needs of migrant families

How do we reconcile government claims that family reunification is a “fundamental pillar of Canadian society” with the reality that permanent grandparent reunification remains difficult to obtain?

Intake announcements like the most recent one in July allow governments to celebrate permanent grandparent migration. At the same time, the inconsistency of the PGP and solutions like the super visa keep migrant grandparents in a state of legal, political and economic precarity.

With the Liberal government announcing cuts to family class admissions over the next three years, the impact of these changes on grandparent reunification warrants attention. 

Rather than temporary reforms and routes, the government needs to consider structural changes to Canada’s family class pathway that focus on the needs and interests of families seeking permanent reunification.

Source: Here’s why Canada’s parents and grandparents reunification program is problematic

Bill C-3 could open the citizenship doors to people with little connection to Canada

My latest:

When the Mark Carney government tabled Bill C-3 in June, the purpose of the proposed legislation was to reduce citizenship barriers for any foreign-born children of Canadians who were themselves born abroad, including both second and subsequent generations.  

This would address controversy that surrounded the previous first-generation citizenship cutoff, which resulted in cases where Canadian parents born abroad could not pass on their citizenship to children also born outside of the country.  

However, the biggest effect of these Citizenship Act amendments could be to complicate Canada’s citizenship administration and open the door to applicants who have minimal connection with Canada.  

Bill C-3 is largely identical to the previous government’s C-71, which died on the order paper early this year when Parliament prorogued, followed by a new Liberal Party leader and the general election. 

This citizenship reform was sparked after the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, in 2023, ruled as unconstitutional a 2009 law passed by the Stephen Harper government that ended the right of Canadians born abroad to pass down citizenship to any children born outside of Canada. 

After a year of inaction while Ottawa’s political landscape evolved, this past spring the Ontario Superior Court of Justice gave the federal government a deadline of Nov. 20 to pass and implement the new legislation. 

In addressing issues that led the 2009 law being declared unconstitutional, Bill C-3 significantly expands the definition — and the number — of Lost Canadians by not requiring a time limit under which parents born abroad can meet the cumulative physical-presence requirement of 1,095 days (three years).  

If applicants did not have a five-year limit within which to amass three years of accumulated residency (as is the requirement for permanent residents), the new criteria would end up recognizing many as Canadian citizens whose links to Canada are tenuous. 

Speaking last December to a Senate committee that was studying Bill C-71, then-immigration and citizenship minister Marc Miler said the time limit was being eliminated due to a concern that “we would create another series of Lost Canadians.” A senior official from Miller’s department told the committee that eliminating the time requirement was intended to make it easier for qualified recipients to claim citizenship, including those who “come to Canada to study every summer or visit their grandparents so they have built up that connection to Canada over many years and not in a short time frame.” 

Testimony at the Senate committee also revealed that the government was basing the policy change on the relatively low numbers of previous cohorts of Lost Canadians, some 20,000 since 2009, most recently at a rate of about 35 to 40 per year. Miller stated, “It’s sure to go up, but I don’t think there are these wild scenarios where we’ll have hundreds and thousands of people.”  

This casual assertion, however, contrasts greatly with perceptions held abroad, where headlines proclaimed that the new law would open the door to allow thousands of people to claim Canadian citizenship.  

Given that the department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has not provided estimated numbers and impacts beyond broad statements, how many members of the second generation born abroad could avail themselves of Canadian citizenship? 

The potential number of people affected is substantial. 

Of the estimated four million Canadian citizens living outside Canada, about half were born abroad. As of 2017, two-thirds of them lived in the U.S. Another 15 per cent were in the U.K., Australia, France, and Italy. Unsurprisingly the portion living in all other countries has been rising, from 14 per cent in 1990 to 20 per cent in 2017.  

In the context of Bill C-3, this trend is noteworthy. Securing Canadian citizenship may not be a top priority for second- and subsequent-generation expatriates in the U.S., EU, and other politically stable places. But it would be much more of an urgent concern for those in less stable countries.  

Further complicating the issues surrounding Bill C-3, expatriate Canadians are older than those living in Canada – 45.3 years old compared to 41.7. Citizens by descent (i.e. someone born outside Canada to a Canadian citizen) are younger still, at an average age of 31.7. Given their younger ages, citizens by descent are more likely to have children, who will then be able to obtain Canadian citizenship if their parents have met the residency requirement. 

Without an established timeframe, it will be more challenging for applicants to provide citizenship officials with proof of residency, just as it will be challenging for the government to verify residency and predict citizenship acquisition year over year. For example, a person who has studied in Canada continuously for five years would have an easier time providing proof of residency than someone who has visited or worked in Canada at various times for different reasons.  

In terms of protecting Canada’s sovereignty, the porous timeframe could also provide opportunities for long-term foreign interference by countries like China and India in recruiting and exploiting their own expats who have acquired Canadian citizenship. There is currently no security or criminality vetting for Canadians by descent and presumably the same would apply to the second generation born abroad as well. 

Same rights, divergent pathways 

Under current law my own grandson, who was born in Europe, cannot pass down Canadian citizenship to any of his future children. Under Bill C-3 he would gain that right, but only after first spending 1,095 cumulative days in Canada. For people like him, one strategy for achieving that would be to attend a Canadian university or college and accumulate most or all of the 1,095 days while getting a degree. 

However, for a Canadian born abroad who, say, maintains a cottage in Canada and spends eight weeks a year there each summer, it would take nearly 20 years to acquire the right to give their descendants Canadian citizenship. 

The road is even longer for second-generation Canadians who spend most of their life abroad. Even if they make occasional trips to Canada, they would not likely accumulate the 1,095-day requirement unless they return permanently, say, in retirement. 

Descendants who are temporary residents (perhaps through a job transfer, or as spouses of skilled workers or students) would likely achieve the necessary physical-presence threshold, but temporary foreign workers on seasonal or short-term contracts would probably never meet the requirement. 

Estimates of expected numbers needed  

Citizenship officials say that the number of Lost Canadians who want to be found is much smaller, about 20,000 to date, than the “between one and two million” as claimed by some advocates. (Likewise, the low number of expatriates who register and vote at election time is another indicator that the number of Lost Canadians is lower than many suggest.) 

However, Bill C-3’s potential impact could be disproportionately large, significantly affecting government workload and bloating the current processing time of five months or longer for citizenship proofs. Officials from Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada need to determine estimates for the number of new citizens expected under the new law and the resources required to handle the increased workload. 

Arguably, Bill C-3 would move Canada closer to being a hybrid jus sanguinis/jus soli regime, making it possible for families to maintain intergenerational Canadian citizenship through different scenarios. This currently is not possible. 

In the broader sense, however, citizenship policy is about striking the balance between facilitation (making it easier to become citizens and fully participate in the political life of Canada) and meaningfulness (ensuring that becoming Canadian is a significant step in the integration journey for both applicants and Canadian society as a whole).  

In my view, the accumulated-physical-presence requirement should be time-limited to five years, just as it is for new Canadians.  As former prime minister Justin Trudeau stated, “A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian.” By implementing two time requirements — five years vs. no time limit — the bill would create two categories of Canadians. 

Canadian citizenship is a precious gift. At the committee stage, members of Parliament must be able to fulsomely examine the implications, both good and bad, of an open-ended residency requirement and seriously consider the option of establishing a specific timeframe of five years within which to accumulate the required 1,095 days to qualify for Canadian citizenship.

Source: Bill C-3 could open the citizenship doors to people with little connection to Canada

Trump administration vetting 55 million foreigners with valid U.S. visas for deportable violations 

The latest. More and more approaching a police state:

The Trump administration said Thursday that it is reviewing more than 55 million people who have valid U.S. visas for any violations that could lead to deportation, marking a growing crackdown on foreigners who are permitted to be in the United States.

In a written answer to a question from the Associated Press, the State Department said all U.S. visa holders, which can include tourists from many countries, are subject to “continuous vetting,” with an eye toward any indication that they could be ineligible for permission to enter or stay in the United States.

Should such information be found, the visa will be revoked, and if the visa holder is in the United States, he or she would be subject to deportation.

Since President Donald Trump took office, his administration has focused on deporting migrants illegally in the United States as well as holders of student and visitor exchange visas. The State Department’s new language suggests that the continual vetting process, which officials acknowledge is time-consuming, is far more widespread and could mean even those approved to be in the U.S. could abruptly see those permissions revoked.

The department said it was looking for indicators of ineligibility, including people staying past the authorized timeframe outlined in a visa, criminal activity, threats to public safety, engaging in any form of terrorist activity or providing support to a terrorist organization.

“We review all available information as part of our vetting, including law enforcement or immigration records or any other information that comes to light after visa issuance indicating a potential ineligibility,” the department said….

Source: Trump administration vetting 55 million foreigners with valid U.S. visas for deportable violations

Court strikes down Indian Act provisions that exclude descendants of those who gave up their status

Different but has some parallels with the first generation cut-off for citizenship transmission (that C-3 will replace):

The B.C. Supreme Court has given the Canadian government until April 2026 to change the Indian Act to bring it into compliance with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms after a successful legal challenge by descendants of people who renounced their status under the law.

The court ruled that provisions of the act that denied status to people with a “family history of enfranchisement,” where their parents or grandparents gave up their status and the benefits it entails, infringed upon the plaintiffs’ Charter rights.

The ruling says the Canadian government agreed with the plaintiffs that the registration provisions of the act perpetuated “disadvantage, stereotyping, prejudice and discrimination” tied to enfranchisement by denying people the benefits of Indian status due to their family history.

Source: Court strikes down Indian Act provisions that exclude descendants of those who gave up their status

McLaughlin: On Being a Deputy Minister

More practical focus than the Michael Sabia’s general message to the public service, focussing on deputies, from former Manitoba clerk:

…My core expectations of you to ensure your success as a deputy minister flow from these statements of my roles.

First, no surprises. Government works best when it is informed and advised of issues as early as possible. My expectation is that you ensure your minister and I are made aware of significant and sensitive issues in a timely way.

Second, give your best advice, not just the expected or desired advice.You are there to lead your department in the development and application of sound, evidence-based public policy.

Third, bring solutions not just problems. You are charged with finding ways forward even in the most challenging of circumstances and issues, befitting your overall responsibility for the department you lead.

Fourth, act for today but think about tomorrow. Challenge your departments to think ahead and think differently about where we need to be, not just where we are now. For a government to be preoccupied with the issues of today is understandable; for a government to be unaware of the issues of the future is unforgivable.

Fifth, contribute to the whole-of-government, not just your part of it. You are, in a phrase, ‘corporate officers of the whole government of Manitoba’ not just custodians of your department of that government. Your personal and professional cross-government collaboration as a member of the DMC team or supporting a minister of the Cabinet is essential for this to occur…

Source: On Being a Deputy Minister

Many U.S. Colleges May Close Without Immigrants And International Students, Report Finds

Comparable dependence on international students:

Many U.S. colleges and universities could be forced to close if they’re not able to enroll as many immigrants and international students, according to a National Foundation for American Policy report. That would mean fewer schools for American students and less employment opportunity for U.S. workers in towns with local universities.

Data show a bleak picture without the foreign born. Current immigration policies, including toward international students, affect the future of U.S. higher education.

“Without immigrants, international students and the children of immigrants, the undergraduate student population in America would be almost 5 million students smaller in 2037 than 2022, or about two-thirds of its current size, while the graduate student population would be at least 1.1 million students smaller, or only about 60% of its current size,” according to the NFAP study.

The study’s author, Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, explains why foreign-born students are vital.

“U.S. colleges and universities face a looming demographic cliff. Due to the post-2007 drop in birth rates, the number of U.S.-born traditional college-age young adults is expected to start dropping in 2025,” writes Zavodny, who was an economist in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Source: Many U.S. Colleges May Close Without Immigrants And International Students, Report Finds

Living in the shadows: Stateless people face unique perils during Trump’s crackdown

Of note:

After decades without a country, Karina Ambartsoumian-Clough finally has a home she can call her own.

Last November, she and her husband, Kevin Clough, closed on a charming, single-family home in the beachside city of Asbury Park, N.J.

“I was, like, crying … in the closing. Then coming here, and I was like, ‘Oh my God, I own this,'” she recalls.

Her long and complicated journey began in what was then the Soviet Union, where she was born in what is now Odesa, Ukraine. As a child, her Ukrainian mother and ethnic Armenian father, seeking to escape political and religious persecution and instability in the 1990s, brought her to the U.S. in 1996.

Ambartsoumian-Clough and her family never registered as citizens of Ukraine, the result of bureaucratic chaos and changing nationality laws at the time. Unbeknownst to them, the family was actually excluded from registering as citizens of Ukraine or Georgia (where her father was from) because they fled during the post-Soviet upheaval. Ambartsoumian-Clough has spent nearly her entire life stateless — not legally recognized as a citizen of any country.

Though she is married to a U.S. citizen and is now a lawful permanent U.S. resident, the 37-year-old is still considered stateless.

Ambartsoumian-Clough is part of an invisible crisis in the United States. An estimated 218,000 people in the U.S. are stateless or at risk of becoming so, according to the Center for Migration Studies. UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, estimates there were roughly 4.4 million stateless people around the world at the end of 2023.

Now, President Trump’s administration is pursuing an aggressive crackdown on immigration. That has included uncommon measures such as revoking naturalized citizens of their status and challenging the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of birthright citizenship — moves that could potentially create an entirely new class of stateless people….

Source: Living in the shadows: Stateless people face unique perils during Trump’s crackdown