John Ivison: Warnings about too many international students were clear. The Liberals ignored them

Says it all:

…Miller has since reduced the number of international student visas by 35 per cent to around 364,000 and plans to limit the number of hours they can legally work to around 20. But that is the response of a government taking action after finding the stable empty and the horse long gone.

If Miller really wants to fix the problem, he should block students from working at all off campus and should make clear to everyone that there is only one route to permanent residency: that is, through the comprehensive ranking system that awards points based on skills, education, language ability and work experience. That way Canada will get the best and brightest through the front door.

To be clear, foreign workers and students are not to blame for all the housing market’s woes. Land costs and development charges have risen tenfold in the past two decades. Mortgage interest costs were up 30 per cent last year. All of these things operate independently of what is going on with the arrival of non-residents.

But as has been noted by innumerable experts, you can’t add a million-and-a-half people and only build 300,000 new homes.

It’s clear that the minister responsible was warned there would be unintended consequences to messing with the student program’s integrity — and there were.

There is a reason why Pierre Poilievre owns the housing issue, even after the Liberals have purloined some of his ideas.

That is because the Liberals are viewed as being culpable for creating the mess we’re in. Judging by Fraser’s testimony, they deserve the discredit.

source: John Ivison: Warnings about too many international students were clear. The Liberals ignored them

Wells: The end of the high-value economy [immigration aspects]

The usual insightful and acerbic Paul Wells:

….We are going to go on a bit of a stroll today, so before I go further I should emphasize that I see nothing wrong with students from anywhere taking jobs as baristas or dog walkers. I think jobs at pubs or with Uber are a valuable part of the international student experience, and I congratulate Edvoy for their success in connecting young people with Canada’s community colleges and its gig-worker economy. 

But surely all this is useful context for the news that Sean Fraser was told in 2022, while he was immigration minister, that removing the 20-hour weekly cap on work international students could perform would “detract from the primary study goal of international students… circumvent the temporary foreign worker programs and give rise to further program integrity concerns with the international student program.” With that information in hand, Fraser took the 20-hour cap off anyway.

That’s because Fraser attached more value to the first thing the memo said, which was that increasing hours worked would help alleviate labour shortages. In other words, immediate post-COVID Canada was a place where the big problem was the limited number of people available to work. Bringing in more international students was a quick way to address that, and letting them work nearly full-time would help too. 

Ontario became Ground Zero for the rapid increase in enrolment for college students. That’s because Ontario premier Doug Ford was transfixed with what he called a “historic labour shortage” and eager to attract more people to the province — from other provinces, from outside Canada, seriously, wherever. I was told at the time that when Ford and Justin Trudeau met soon after the 2022 elections in Ontario and Quebec returned the incumbents, the PM bonded with Ford by complaining about Quebec’s François Legault behind Legault’s back, because Legault was still trying to limit immigration while Ford wanted the roof blown off. 

A certain creative laxity in international-student visa distribution permitted the overlap between Ford’s interests, Trudeau’s and those of Ontario’s community colleges: Ford could address his labour shortage, at least at the lower end of the skills ladder (I assume international students are often highly skilled and eager to increase their human capital, but in the meantime they’re dog walkers). Trudeau could goose the economy during a shaky period when a lot of people were worried about the prospects of recession. And Ontario’s colleges could enjoy a revenue bonanza, at a time when most other sources of funding for Ontario higher education are capped. Alex Usher’s been covering that part all along….

Source: The end of the high-value economy

The Ontario college with the most international students comes out swinging against Canada’s reforms

Not unexpected. But one third in business programs suggest and three percent in health and life sciences suggest that it may be over stating its case:

The Ontario college that boasts the largest number of international students in the country is unapologetically touting its growth plan in an effort to address what it calls Canada’s “baby deficit.”

Kitchener-based Conestoga College, which has seen new approved study permits up 137 per cent over the last three years, said the prosperity of the local communities is threatened by the pressure on the labour supply — a result of a declining birthrate and an aging workforce — as well as the recent changes to Canada’s international education program.

“The college is responding to these shortages both emphatically and strategically,” Conestoga said in a report released Tuesday that explains its recent growth and the need to meet the region’s demand for a skilled labour force.

“The college has expanded its enrolment and attracted the level of international students necessary to compensate for the ‘baby deficit’ that will be the hallmark of the next several decades.”

The report, titled “The Conestoga Effect,” came in the wake of a two-year cap imposed by Immigration Minister Marc Miller recently to restrict the number of new study permits issued in order to rein in Canada’s fast-growing international student program, which he said has been used as a back entry into the country for jobs and permanent residence. 

According to data from the Immigration Department, Conestoga, a public college with 11 campuses in eight cities, has seen the fastest growth in new study permits received — 12,822 in 2021; 20,905 in 2022; and 30,395 in 2023 — and one of the highest volumes of study permits extended over the three-year period — 2,837, 4,629 and 6,760 respectively.

Those numbers have raised eyebrows and drawn criticisms of the college for running the operations like what Miller has described as “puppy mills,” which Conestoga president John Tibbits vehemently denied on Tuesday.

“I am happy with what we’ve done. And we would do the same thing again,” he told an audience at the unveiling of the report, which was the fourth in a series over two decades that started in 2003, to capture the impact of the institution on the local community and economy.

Source: The Ontario college with the most international students comes out swinging against Canada’s reforms

Government misses deadline for online passport renewals by fall 2023

Yet another operational failing. Always better to under promise and over deliver and striking government tends to the opposite:

…The government processes anywhere between 2.5 million and five million passport every year and as far back as 2020 a review of the system has recommended an online option to streamline the process. Canada’s passport system was overwhelmed in 2022 as people returned to travel following the pandemic, with people waiting months to get a passport or standing for hours outside passport offices for emergency travel.

The government has largely cleared that backlog, but Krupovich said the department’s hope is that an online renewal process will allow the department to better manage volumes.

“This tool will also help us to better manage fluctuating application volumes and help ease the pressure on front-line staff, thereby improving client access to passport services,” he said.

The new proposed system would allow people to renew their passports, upload a new photo and pay any fees all online without going to a passport office. Anyone applying for a new passport would still have to go to an office in person.

Krupovich didn’t give a new deadline for when the online renewal might be made available, saying only that any developments would be announced.

Source: Government misses deadline for online passport renewals by fall 2023

Regg Cohn: How shamelessly has Doug Ford ground down Ontario’s colleges and universities? Let me count the ways

Excellent analysis, including how colleges are treated differently than universities and the resulting incentive for their more rapid growth in international students:

The education of Doug Ford comes at a high price.

Not for him — the premier is doing just fine.

But under his stewardship, post-secondary education has spiralled from crisis to catastrophe. It is a disaster of Ford’s own making, with implications that go far beyond Ontario’s colleges and universities.

Here’s the problem with the premier’s post-secondary playbook: He’s been playing with other people’s money — a shell game — while gambling on the outcomes.

What looked like a good deal for Ford has become a bad bet for the entire province. The chaos over surging foreign enrolments on campus, amped up by the premier, has created panicky headlines.

But if you dig a little deeper, the crisis has also created an unsavoury windfall for the province: A “head tax” on foreign students, on top of a shell game for colleges, which together buff up the provincial treasury by hundreds of millions of dollars.

That’s on top of the savings for Ford’s Progressive Conservatives by freezing funding for higher education in Ontario at a time of rising inflation (disclosure: I’m a senior fellow at Toronto Metropolitan University and also at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy).

Upon taking power in 2018, Ford ordered every post-secondary institution to cut tuition by 10 per cent — without making up the shortfall. Those fees have been frozen ever since, while government funding stagnated year after year — inflation be damned.

Ontario’s colleges, left to fend for themselves after the tuition cut and freeze, were encouraged to make up the difference by recruiting high-paying foreigners with abandon. The inflated cash flow propelled all but one of Ontario’s 24 colleges into sudden surpluses worth more than $660 million in 2022.

Conveniently, that windfall benefited Ford’s Tories because the colleges’ balance sheets show up on the books of the provincial treasury. That’s a sweet deal for Ford and his surplus-addicted finance minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy.

But the province’s universities, most of which resisted the temptation to feast on foreign students — are now in dire financial straits, with 10 of 23 now running deficits.

Happily for Ford’s Tories, those university deficits are seemingly not the province’s problem — neither fiscally nor politically. That’s because any university’s red ink doesn’t show up on the province’s balance sheet, since they are deemed autonomous institutions (unlike colleges which report directly to the government).

It’s an accident of history that manifests as an accounting quirk. But it amounts to a handy political payoff for the premier.

Moreover, Ford’s Tories have been shamelessly milking foreign students with a de facto “head tax,” which is dressed up as an international “recovery fee” for every warm body lured to Ontario. It’s not a massive amount — more than $140 million a year — but it’s profiteering all the same.

Campuses are at the breaking point. Communities are at the boiling point over housing shortages exacerbated by an unplanned foreign influx.

Forced into action by the province’s inaction, the federal government imposed a cap on foreign students and work permits last month. With cascading abuses, Ottawa had little choice but to act — Ontario broke the system, and now Queen’s Park has to take responsibility for fixing it.

The boom will fall especially hard on Ontario, which already fills 51 per cent of the permits with only 39 per cent of the population. And it will hit universities harder than colleges and private educational institutions, which cornered an outsized share of permits driven by a strategy of greedy growth.

Will the government play hardball with universities when it comes to those scarce international permits, in order to protect the foreign cash flow of colleges who are already Ford’s preferred partners for his policy of promoting the skilled trades?

Last year, it seemed the premier had seen the light. The Tories set up a fancy-sounding Blue Ribbon Panel on Post-secondary Education that quickly focused on fixing the distorted bottom line with straightforward advice:

Stop cutting tuition and stop freezing funding.

“The sector’s financial sustainability is currently at serious risk, and it will take a concerted effort to right the ship,” its report warned in November.

The outside panel recommended a one-time tuition hike of five per cent in 2024-25, followed by increases of two per cent (or higher, tied to inflation) thereafter. By the panel’s calculations, it would take a tuition increase of 25 per cent to make up for lost monies — politically unpalatable, so it urged the Ford government to increase funding by about 10 per cent with subsequent increases of at least two per cent (plus inflation).

Its report urged the government to confront its growing addiction by moving to “reduce or eliminate the student recovery fee for international students paid by colleges,” amounting to $750 a year.

Ford’s reaction? Pull out the populist playbook:

“I just don’t believe this is the time to go into these (Ontario) students’ pockets, especially the ones that are really struggling, and ask for a tuition increase,” he told reporters last month, calling instead for more “efficiencies.”

Let’s not confuse efficiencies with distortions. By profiting from the penury of post-secondary institutions — boosting his own bottom line while starving universities and contorting colleges — Ford is giving the province a costly lesson about false economies.

Source: How shamelessly has Doug Ford ground down Ontario’s colleges and universities? Let me count the ways

Minister was warned lifting international student work limit could undermine program

More on the warning and former Minister Fraser’s policy failure:

Allowing international students to work more than 20 hours a week could distract from their studies and undermine the objective of temporary foreign worker programs, public servants warned the federal government in 2022.

The caution came in documents prepared for former immigration minister Sean Fraser as Ottawa looked at waiving the restriction on the number of hours international students could work off-campus — a policy the Liberals eventually implemented.

The Canadian Press obtained the internal documents with an access-to-information request.

Waiving the cap could help alleviate labour shortages, a memorandum for the minister conceded, but it could also have other unintended consequences.

“While a temporary increase in the number of hours international students can work off-campus could help address these shortages, this could detract from the primary study goal of international students to a greater emphasis on work, circumvent the temporary foreign worker programs and give rise to further program integrity concerns with the international student program,” the memo said.

Canada’s bloated international student program has been heavily scrutinized in recent months as part of a larger critique of Liberal immigration policies that have fuelled rapid population growth and contributed to the country’s housing crunch.

That scrutiny led the federal government to introduce a cap on study permits over the next two years, as it tries to get a handle on the program.

More than 900,000 foreign students had visas to study in Canada last year, which is more than three times the number 10 years ago.

Critics have questioned the dramatic spike in international student enrolments at shady post-secondary institutions and have flagged concerns about the program being a backdoor to permanent residency.

The memo said removing the limit for off-campus work would be in “stark contrast” to the temporary foreign worker programs, which requires employers to prove that they need a migrant worker and that no Canadian or permanent resident is available to do the job.

Fraser ultimately announced in October 2022 that the federal government would waive the restriction until the end of 2023 to ease labour shortages across the country.

The waiver only applied to students currently in the country or those who had already applied, in order to not incentivize foreign nationals to obtain a study permit only to work in Canada.

In December, Immigration Minister Marc Miller extended the policy until April 30, 2024 and floated the idea of setting the cap at 30 hours a week thereafter.

In an interview with The Canadian Press on Monday, Miller said he extended the waiver because he didn’t want to interfere with students’ work arrangements in the middle of an academic year.

“What I really didn’t want to do is impact students in a current year that have made their financial calculations about how they will sustain themselves and how they will be able to pay for the tuition and rent and food,” Miller said.

Miller said internal work by the department shows more than 80 per cent of international students are currently working more than 20 hours a week.

Waiving the number of hours international students could work was the right call given the labour shortages Canada was facing, but the policy was never meant to be permanent, he said.

Job vacancies soared to more than a million in the second quarter of 2022, but have steadily decreased since then as the economy slows.

Miller said he’s now considering making a permanent change to the cap that would set it somewhere between 20 and 40 hours a week.

“It’s not credible that someone can work 40 hours and do a proper program,” Miller said.

He said the goal is to come up with a cap that gives students the ability to get good work experience and help them pay the bills, all while not undermining their studies.

“So what does a reasonable number of hours look like for someone here studying, knowing that they are paying three to four times, sometimes five times the price of a domestic student?” Miller said.

“I think that’s above 20 hours.”

Source: Minister was warned lifting international student work limit could undermine program

Most immigrants with deportation letters are still in Canada, CBSA figures show

As Raj Sharma pointed out on X, “Overstay often receive “voluntary departure orders” which are not removal orders and many that receive the former can and have regularized status (in Canada marriage/common law, refugee claim, H&C, etc).” So numbers likely overstated and it would be helpful to have a breakdown between “voluntary” and “mandatory” departure orders:

Most people living in Canada who have been sent deportation letters in the past eight years are still in the country, according to official figures disclosed by the Canada Border Services Agency.

The figures show that 14,609 people were sent letters informing them they are facing deportation between 2016 and May last year.

But 9,317 of those were still living in Canada last year, including 2,188 people sent deportation letters in 2016 and 2017.

Conservative immigration critic Tom Kmiec, who received the figures in an answer to a parliamentary question he asked last May, said they suggest a lack of enforcement. He said they are a symptom of a “broken immigration system” and are contributing to an erosion in public confidence.

The figures show that 3,087 people – fewer than a quarter of people sent deportation letters since 2016 – have been removed from Canada….

Source: Most immigrants with deportation letters are still in Canada, CBSA figures show

Siavash Safavi: Canada’s clueless immigration policy will not end well

Not one of the most informed critics, inordinately focussed on value concerns, but legitimate reactions to the prevalent ideologies among academics (York U). But concerns about vetting of Syrian refugees are largely unsubstantiated as experience to data has illustrated (Gazan refugees are being subject to even more stringent vetting) but it is natural for those who have fled the Iranian regime to have such views.

And effective vetting for values as he advocates, absent actions or other evidence, is extremely difficult to implement consistently in practice:

I came to Canada as a political refugee. In my home country of Iran, I was arrested, tortured and later received a prison sentence for my student-organizing activities. I had a month to surrender to prison. Instead, I decided to leave the country with the help of a smuggler. I escaped through the mountains, partly on horseback, to Turkey, where I applied for asylum through the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

There, I waited one year for my UNHCR approval, despite all the proof and court documents I had provided. After that, I waited another 18 months for Canadian security agencies to vet me. It was a rough time. At age 28, I found myself in a foreign country with a language I barely understood, no money and no family or friends.

It’s popular nowadays for people to feel sorry for themselves and express feelings of victimhood. But I have no complaints. If someone is kind enough to let me into their home for life, they have a responsibility to their family to at least find out if I am honest or not.

I arrived in Canada after 2½ years of living in Turkey.

In 2013, under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Canada was accepting around 24,000 refugees a year, and the Canadian middle class was surpassing the U.S. to become the richest in the world. Canada was respected worldwide, and I couldn’t wait to become a patriotic Canadian.

In my second year in Canada, I attended York University. As someone who was arrested for their student activism in Iran, I wanted to enjoy the university experience in a free country. And as a classical liberal, I was intent on familiarizing myself with current western thought in the humanities. So I took anthropology and gender studies.

Both courses taught me that almost all the injustice in the world is the fault of white men, that western ethnocentrism is the cause of most conflicts between East and West, and that all cultures are equal, only different. I remember walking out of the class thinking, “I guess the West had a good run. It was bound to end at some point.”

I was pretty shocked at the views promoted through Canadian universities, and quite horrified to find those ideas metastasizing in the cultural fabric. I’m sensitive to this issue because I’ve lived in countries in which a radical ideology has infiltrated the culture, taken over and ultimately undermined the national interest. It happened in Iran following the 1979 revolution, and again in Turkey with the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Two years after I came to this country, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to power and declared Canada the first “post-national” state. Soon after, tens of thousands of Syrian refugees were expedited into Canada, and I couldn’t help feeling insulted. It wasn’t just about the 2½ years of my life wasted away in Turkey, it was also because there were serious concerns that the refugees weren’t being properly vetted.

Proper vetting is very necessary when bringing in people from countries whose cultures clash with our own. There are many Iranians who I wouldn’t want in Canada, including the policeman who lashed me in public when I was 19 for allegedly holding hands with a girl in the street, or the judge who ordered the lashing.

This is not about a certain nationality or ethnicity. Cultures are shaped by their geography and their history. Some are more inclusive than others. It doesn’t mean one is necessarily evil. It simply means it holds values that are incompatible with those of some other cultures.

Newcomers are supposed to adopt the fundamental aspects of the culture of their new country, in order to fit in better and help maintain social cohesion. That’s just common sense. In my orientation before arriving in Canada, we were taught not to relieve ourselves in the street. I could have felt offended, but I understood that there might be refugees from countries with different cultures or no indoor plumbing.

For us to live with people from many different places, we need common cultural threads. Even in a multicultural country like Canada, the native cultural threads are the only things that hold society together. Immigrant cultures can add their own pearls and jewels to that thread, but the thread is the base.

When dealing with refugees from countries in which the dominant culture or state ideology differs from our own, we should invest the necessary time and resources to vet each individual properly, to ensure that those who hold extremist views are not admitted. But when the government imports tens of thousands of people from  these countries each year, a few things happen.

The newcomers, many of whom usually do not speak the language well, will feel the need to stick together in close-knit communities, forming a parallel society with a completely different culture to the country they live in. The culture of the old country is promoted and protected in these communities, usually by self-appointed authoritarian leaders through social pressure, or sometimes by force, leaving the people vulnerable to all kinds of corruption.

Their children, who naturally will go through their own identity crisis phase, will go to university and learn that every negative thing their old country’s culture says about their new country is true. So they will grow to resent their new country.

Newcomers in these communities are also easy prey for the criminals and sociopaths in their own communities, because they are not familiar with the law. And since they mostly come from countries with a negative view of authority, they don’t trust the police, so it is much easier to take advantage of them.

Over time, through mass immigration and high birth rates, their numbers grow, and they will be able to impact the political sphere, led by the most radical or corrupt authoritarians who take advantage of them.

Now imagine millions of Canada citizens who believe that all white people are evil and racist, or that Jewish people are a societal virus, or that the LGBTQ+ are demonic and need to be eradicated, or that women should be subservient to men, or, worst of all, that the use of violence is necessary against people who disagree with, or “disrespect,” their culture.

At that point, you risk balkanization. You cannot force people who have nothing in common — or worse, hold animosity toward each other — to share the same country. And owing to the freedoms afforded to people in a country such as this one, it is hard for authorities to combat citizens who despise their adopted country and are looking to undermine it through legal means.

None of us know what the best immigration policy is, but anyone with common sense should be able to see that if you bring in large groups of people in who hate your culture, while at the same time demonize your own country, it is just masochism, not policy, and it will not end well.

Source: Siavash Safavi: Canada’s clueless immigration policy will not end well

COVID-19 Immigration Effects – December 2023 update

Regular monthly data update.

Highlights on slide 3.

Canadian Immigration Tracker December 2023

‘Labour shortage is real.’ Canadian retailers push back on Ottawa’s foreign labour cap

The next interest group opposing caps:

Canada’s immigration minister is getting pushback from companies that heavily rely on foreign labour following the federal government’s announcement that it will cap international student visas.

Marc Miller said companies, including “big-box stores,” are already lobbying against the planned reduction in permitted work hours for international students in comments made Tuesday to BNN Bloomberg.

“Some of the big-box stores, some of the businesses that have international students, have pushed relatively hard to preserve the 40-hour work week,” Miller said. “Some student groups call for it as well because a lot of employers want you to be able to commit to more than 20 hours.”

The Retail Council of Canada — which represents 45,000 store fronts across the country, including Canada’s largest grocers, Walmart and Amazon Canada — in an email said that “the labour shortage is real, and finding people has never been more difficult.” Many of the big box stores the RCC represents employ international students, said spokesperson Michelle Wasylyshen.

Source: ‘Labour shortage is real.’ Canadian retailers push back on Ottawa’s foreign labour cap