Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years 

Some useful data that helps understand USA concerns and provides shared incentives for better managing the border.

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet committed to a plan for increasing Canadian border security, Quebec’s Premier François Legault has called for one.“I think now’s not the time to play at whether it’s true or not that our borders are not secure. I think it’s important that a plan be tabled,” Premier Legault told reporters.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Trump’s concerns with the U.S.-Canada borders are well founded. Her government may be sending law enforcement to the province’s shared border with Montana to develop a “specialized border patrol.”“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

Border crossings 

In fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 to September 2024), the number of U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) encounters at America’s northern border with Canada was nearly 200,000. Those at the U.S. border with Mexico, meanwhile, were 2.1 million.

There were just over 10 U.S. Border Patrol encounters along the Mexico-U.S. border for every one encounter along the Canada-U.S. border.

Encounters occur when the USBP locates individuals attempting to enter the country, either illegally between border posts or at official crossings without necessary paperwork like visas. It also includes those turned away because of public health rules, such as those put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Between 2022 and 2024, USBP encounters at the U.S.-Canada border nearly doubled, increasing 81 percent. Meanwhile, those at the Mexican border declined by 10 percent.

At both borders, single adults are the vast majority of those attempting to enter the U.S. At the U.S.-Canada border in 2022, single people numbered 92,737 or 84 percent of all USBP encounters. In 2024 they numbered 155,214 or 78 percent.

Families attempting to enter the U.S. unlawfully have increased remarkably.

At the Mexico-U.S. border, between 2022 and 2024, families rose from 23 to 41 percent of USBP encounters. At the Canadian border in 2022, they were just 13 percent of all encounters. This year they rose to 21 percent.

Who’s coming?

What’s also increased is both individuals and families travelling first to Canada, with the ultimate plan of making it across our southern border to the United States.

“When you see that, increasingly, the open border policies of Justin Trudeau [are] leading to people coming to Canada as a staging area to enter into the United States, to such a point that it has caught [the United States’] attention, we need to address those issues,” said Premier Smith this week.

The increase of USBP encounters at the northern U.S. border, compared to those in the U.S. south, gives some weight to this idea that migrants are increasingly using Canada’s less defended border as a first step to illegally enter the U.S.

As U.S.-Mexico border security has become tighter, human smugglers have increasingly advised clients to travel to the U.S. through the U.S.-Canada border, according to CBC reporting. Taxis services to drive migrants to New York City have reportedly boomed in New York State border towns.

In 2023, Indians were the single largest national group for attempts to cross the Canada-U.S. border, numbering 30,000.

From 2022 to 2023, USBC encounters with Venezuelans along our border increased the most relatively, from 201 to 1,375; followed by Peruvians from 148 to 662; and Mexicans from 3,221 to 11,121. Each relative increase was remarkably higher compared to those at the Mexico-U.S. border.

Other Central and South American nationals like Nicaraguans, Colombians, and Brazilians–whose countries are said to be facing a migration crisis–top the list for 2022 to 2023’s increased USBP encounters at the Canada-U.S. border. In 2023, encounters with Mexican, Nicaraguan, and Brazilian nationals at the Mexico-U.S. border actually declined, as those at Canada’s border rose remarkably.

Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, said Canada’s U.S. border presently represents an “extreme national security” vulnerability for his country….

Source: Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years

The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

Good long read and overview. Excerpt some of the most interesting comments:

…In the rush to find ways of taming Mr. Trump’s sudden fury about the Canadian border, experts are now calling for the revival of obscure and long-dormant bilateral bodies. Former public safety minister Marco Mendicino said one way to “send a very strong signal to the president-elect” is to immediately reconvene a meeting of the Canada-U.S. Cross-Border Crime Forum, which was revived after several years in abeyance last year.

The forum, composed of Canada’s public safety and justice ministers, and the U.S. secretary of homeland security and attorney-general, is a ready-made platform for sharing intelligence and addressing concerns about human and drug smuggling across the border.

“Being pro-active is crucial, because we want to transmit that we are in total alignment when it comes to shoring up the integrity of the border,” Mr. Mendicino said.

If Canadians often thought of their border with the U.S. as a kind of decorative ticker tape, the Trump administration appears to believe the border is more like a fishing net that is full of holes. And some of the numbers do suggest that our shared border is becoming more porous to migrants and drugs, as Mr. Trump alleged in his social media post.

Statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show that roughly twice as many suspected terrorists have tried to cross from Canada into the U.S. as have from Mexico in recent years.

The data are deeply concerning for Americans in the post-9/11 era and should be taken seriously and investigated by Canadian officials, said Michael Barutciski, a York University professor of international affairs.

As recently as September, he pointed out, a Pakistani man living in the Toronto area was arrested near the border in Ormstown, Que., in September on allegations he was plotting an Islamic State-inspired mass shooting on a Jewish centre in New York. The man entered Canada on a student visa last year.

“It doesn’t look good,” said Prof. Barutciski. “It’s a very sensitive issue and they often turn to Canada as sort of a weak point and they’re paranoid about that and we can’t deny that once in a while we do give them reasons to be afraid.”

Former Conservative public safety minister Peter Van Loan thinks the fear of Canadian terror strikes in the U.S. is overblown and that the perception is worth combatting while the issue is front and centre. After all, the data on terrorists reflect those who tried to enter the country and were prevented from doing so.

“It has been a long running misunderstanding among Americans that Canada has been a source of terrorists,” he said. “None of the 9/11 terrorists came from Canada. I continually ran into American politicians who believe they did come in through Canada, and the fact is, they did not. So Canada has a bit of a public relations issue there.”

The border is certainly under growing strain from irregular migrants – although the perception that they are more likely to be criminals has been harshly scrutinized. A recent U.S. study found that undocumented immigrants in Texas, at least, had lower rates of violent crime than U.S.-born citizens….

Source: The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

Bill C-71 – The need for a timeframe limit: My submission to the Senate’s SOCI

The Senate will be starting its review of Bill C-71, the government bill replacing the first generation cut-off for citizenship transmission, by a residency test for the second generation born abroad. The Senate will conduct its review this week prior to the House of Commons given that the House is effectively shut down.

I will be testifying on December 4th.

Please find attached my written submission, arguing for a same time limit of five years to meet the 1,095 day residency requirement as is the case for permanent residents applying for citizenship, and for IRCC to prepare and share its analysis of the likely number of persons affected and the operational impacts along with associated costs. (My own analysis is included in the submission).

I hope you find it interesting.

Meeting notice: The subject matter of Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024)

Québec exige la fin de l’exemption religieuse pour la propagande haineuse

Thorny issue, given some of the examples where appears needed and others where more questionable:

Ottawa a démontré peu d’ouverture à une demande du ministre de la Justice du Québec, Simon Jolin-Barrette, qui ne veut plus que le Code criminel permette à des individus de se livrer à de la propagande haineuse « sous le couvert de la foi ». Pour toute réponse, le gouvernement Trudeau a suggéré au ministre québécois de collaborer à l’avancement d’un projet de loi fédéral sur « les préjudices en ligne ».

Le ministre Jolin-Barrette a envoyé une lettre jeudi à son homologue canadien, Arif Virani, afin de lui demander d’abroger deux articles du Code criminel qui contreviennent, selon son interprétation, au principe de laïcité de l’État.

Ces articles — 319 (3) (b) et 319 (3.1) (b) — font partie d’une courte de liste d’exceptions pouvant être évoquées face à des accusations d’avoir fomenté volontairement la haine ou l’antisémitisme. Ils permettent à un accusé de se défendre en faisant valoir le fait d’avoir, « de bonne foi, exprimé une opinion sur un sujet religieux ou une opinion fondée sur un texte religieux auquel il croit », ou d’avoir « tenté d’en établir le bien-fondé par argument ».

De l’avis du ministre Jolin-Barrette, « cette justification est actuellement exploitée pour légitimer des propos discriminatoires ou incendiaires sous le couvert de la foi ». « Ce genre de discours contribue à un climat toxique, menaçant la sécurité et le bien-être des personnes visées », a-t-il écrit au ministre Virani.

Le cabinet du ministre Virani a fait suivre une réponse au Devoir. La directrice adjointe aux communications, Chantalle Aubertin, y a écrit qu’en guise d’« action décisive », Ottawa avait présenté la Loi sur les préjudices en ligne, « une mesure globale visant à lutter contre la propagation des discours haineux, tant en ligne que dans nos communautés ».

« Nous apprécions les observations du ministre Jolin-Barrette et restons déterminés à travailler ensemble pour trouver des solutions », a-t-elle ajouté. « Nous l’encourageons à collaborer avec les parlementaires afin de soutenir l’avancement de la Loi sur les préjudices en ligne en comité, garantissant ainsi que nous disposons des outils nécessaires pour combattre efficacement la haine », a ensuite suggéré Mme Aubertin….

Source: Québec exige la fin de l’exemption religieuse pour la propagande haineuse

Ottawa has shown little openness to a request from Quebec’s Minister of Justice, Simon Jolin-Barrette, who no longer wants the Criminal Code to allow individuals to engage in hateful propaganda “under the guise of faith”. For any response, the Trudeau government suggested that the Quebec minister collaborate in the progress of a federal bill on “online damage”.

Minister Jolin-Barrette sent a letter on Thursday to his Canadian counterpart, Arif Virani, asking him to repeal two articles of the Criminal Code that, according to his interpretation, contravene the principle of secularism of the State.

These articles – 319 (3) (b) and 319 (3.1) (b) – are part of a short list of exceptions that can be raised in the face of accusations of having voluntarily fomented hatred or anti-Semitism. They allow an accused to defend himself by asserting the fact that he has, “in good faith, expressed an opinion on a religious subject or an opinion based on a religious text in which he believes”, or that he has “tried to establish its merits by argument”.

In the opinion of Minister Jolin-Barrette, “this justification is currently exploited to legitimize discriminatory or incendiary remarks under the guise of faith”. “This kind of speech contributes to a toxic climate, threatening the safety and well-being of the people targeted,” he wrote to Minister Virani.

Minister Virani’s office forwarded a response to the Duty. Assistant Director of Communications, Chantalle Aubertin, wrote that as a “recisive action,” Ottawa had introduced the Online Injuries Act, “a comprehensive measure to combat the spread of hate speech, both online and in our communities.”

“We appreciate Minister Jolin-Barrette’s comments and remain determined to work together to find solutions,” she added. “We encourage her to work with parliamentarians to support the progress of the Online Damages Act in committee, thus ensuring that we have the necessary tools to effectively combat hatred,” Ms. Aubertin then suggested.

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

Of note:

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorships from groups of five or more people and community organizations to help clear a backlog of applications.

The notice was published on the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada website today.

The pause is effective immediately and runs until Dec. 31, 2025.

The government says applications received annually far outpace the number of spaces for private refugee sponsorships.

The government has set a target of admitting 23,000 privately sponsored refugees in its 2025-27 immigration plan, while the total refugee target for next year is just over 58,000 people…

Source: Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

McKinnon: The age of Canada’s exorbitant privilege is ending. Now we have to secure our future

From one of my former GAC colleagues and nice to see his thoughtful contribution. Immigration excerpt:

…A stark example of our broken approach to policy making was the decision to dramatically increase immigration levels to maintain economic growth, which seemed like a seemingly painless way (as opposed to serious policy choices) to do so. Ultimately, it failed even at this, as modest headline economic growth masked declining per-capita incomes. It also enabled provinces to underfund higher education by relying on foreign students paying high fees without guaranteeing them quality education. It has had unintended consequences in areas such as productivity, national security and health care. And now, support for large-scale immigration is at risk as Canadians doubt government control over borders and question the ability of governments to meet existing housing, health and education needs.

Our culture of political expediency sees immigration and, by extension, foreign policy, through largely a vote-gathering lens, rather than through the national interest. Thankfully, Canadians have largely avoided xenophobic anti-immigrant populism to date, but that could change if we do not return to an approach that benefits all of Canada. If we discourage a thoughtfully targeted migration approach, we undermine the innovation needed for our success.

That diversity is central to our prosperity, so long as diversity is not seen simply as an end in itself. The advantage of diversity is in the varying knowledge and experiences that can be brought together to find creative, productive and enduring solutions to the challenges we face. But a diverse society still needs to achieve belonging, which comes from finding common ground – not from hype about what divides us.

…It is a sad commentary on the dearth of major Canadian policy innovation and nation building that has taken place in recent decades that we must go back 40 years for inspiration, but so it is.

Back to now. Profound change in the relatively comfortable and undemanding world in which Canada has prospered has been a long time coming, but events in recent years have catalyzed the shift, meaning many Canadians are only now beginning to realize how much has changed. Action is urgently needed. But it is hard to see it happen if we do not find some common ground to bring us together to address the challenges at hand.

We have done it before. We can do it again.

Source: The age of Canada’s exorbitant privilege is ending. Now we have to secure our future

Labman and Gaucher: Why the ‘language of loopholes’ should be avoided if Trump cracks down on the Canada-U.S. border

Representative of the views of most academics/activists and divorced from both domestic and Trump administration realities.

It would be far more productive for them to make practical and realistic suggestions to attenuate the impact for those most in need rather than making these general arguments. (e.g., Rob Vineberg’s suggestion on how to improve asylum claim processing).

The general statement that these restrictions will result in an increase in “undertaking dangerous and sometimes deadly measures to seek protection” is correct but will likely cause some to reconsider the risks.

As to the loophole terminology, the reality is that it is likely perceived as such by migrants themselves and those helping them, as they understandably seek a way to enter Canada:

Refugee advocates on both sides of the Canada-United States border are already gearing up for the next round of battle regarding the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA).

With the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, the incoming appointment of Tom Homan as a “border czar” and stated plans for border crackdowns and mass deportations, there is heightened awareness of the impact on Canadian border crossings.

Trump, in fact, has threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing the border.

STCA timeline

Originally signed in 2002, the STCA permits the return of asylum seekers who arrive in Canada from the U.S. — or vice versa — because both countries are considered safe.

For more than two decades, refugee advocates have called for it to be suspended given the agreement’s negative impact on access to asylum and how it can fuel human trafficking. Instead, the agreement was expanded in March 2023 to make it harder to cross the border.

Simultaneously, Roxham Road, a central crossing point in Québec for asylum seekers travelling from the U.S. to Canada during the first Trump administration, was closed down in 2023.

Supposed loopholes

Debates around the STCA often feature complaints that the agreement contains loopholes that must be closed.

Prior to March 2023, the agreement allowed Canada to refuse refugees coming through the U.S. who sought entry at official border crossings. Crossing at an unofficial border point, however, did not trigger the agreement, a detail described by critics as a legislative loophole.

These critics argued that asylum seekers were exploiting the loophole by avoiding official land ports of entry to make their refugee claims.

To be clear, the decision about official and unofficial border crossings was not accidental. It was an intentional recognition of the expansive reach of the Canada-U.S. border and the impossibility of attentively monitoring or tracking all refugee routes into Canada or the U.S.

Obscuring understanding

Our research, featured in Emmett Macfarlane and Kate Puddister’s upcoming book Disciplinary Divides in the Study of Law and Politics, explores how this language of loopholes works to dangerously obscure our understanding of how migrants move, the STCA’s effectiveness as a tool of border control and whether the U.S. is in fact safe for refugees.

The idea of a loophole implies an error that must be addressed, and, at the border, a hole to be closed or a road to be sealed. The language of loopholes centres on the “security” of the border.

The revised STCA now applies across the entirety of the border between Canada and the U.S., at both official and unofficial crossings. The perceived loophole of crossing at unofficial entry points and being able to claim asylum has been closed. Yet, in the aftermath of the U.S. election, new loophole language is surfacing.

Under the new STCA, migrants who cross into Canada at irregular border points will be returned to the U.S. (or vice versa) — but only if they’re discovered within the first 14 days of their arrival. This incentivizes refugees to evade detection for two weeks so that they can make a claim for protection in Canada.

With the land crossing “loophole” closed, we now see critics pointing to this 14-day provision as yet another loophole, describing it as an ill-considered gap in the revised agreement that must be closed — further limiting access to asylum.

Placing asylum seekers in harm’s way

Many refugee advocates have argued this new 14-day condition puts asylum seekers at greater risk, pushing them into hiding and making them reliant on human traffickers. But these advocates don’t use the language of loopholes — they simply see it as further argument on why the STCA is not the right way to control irregular crossings and should be suspended entirely.

With a Canadian federal election on the horizon and ongoing debates around the agreement looming large, Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledged there may be need to consider a “different approach” to border management. He says the government is focused on a “secure” border.

This public fixation on the type of border crossing migrants undertake isn’t unique to commentary on the STCA.

Migrants arriving in Canada by sea from various South Asian regions on the Komagata Maru in 1914, the Amelie in 1987, the Ocean Lady in 2009 and the MV Sun Sea in 2010 were met with strong opposition from Canadian governments, accused of using a disingenuous channel to seek entry.

Excluding some migrants

Characterizing asylum seekers who are crossing the border as exploiting a loophole is therefore aligned with a Canadian immigration history that, while inclusive in certain respects, has been marked by both legal and illegal attempts to exclude certain groups of migrants.

In fact, crossing a territorial border to trigger a legal right to claim asylum is viewed fearfully in contrast to the airport receptions of resettled refugees who, for the fortunate few with access to this discretionary route to protection, are celebrated.

Debating whether asylum seekers are exploiting perceived loopholes taps into public sentiment about specific migrant arrivals of the past.

It also ignores both Canadian and American complicity in facilitating these unofficial crossings in the first place by choosing to place obstacles in the way of asylum seekers rather than devoting care and resources to a fair and orderly processing of refugee claims.

Closing ‘loopholes’ won’t deter migrants

This language of loopholes suggests that once the loophole is closed, applications for asylum and incidents of trafficking will decrease.

This assumption is empirically false given the grim realities of migration. The presence or absence of loopholes does not prevent asylum seekers from undertaking dangerous and sometimes deadly measures to seek protection.

Conversations around the STCA that focus on loopholes have lost sight of the needs of asylum seekers and our commitments in international law to protect refugees. Instead they emphasize the supposed illegitimacy of border crossers, echoing the country’s longstanding preoccupation with how one negotiates the border.

Source: Why the ‘language of loopholes’ should be avoided if Trump cracks down on the Canada-U.S. border

Canada can’t support influx of migrants fleeing Trump, must prevent border crossings, says former top aide

Clearly the case, for domestic as well as USA reasons:

Canada needs to significantly strengthen its border, says a former chief of staff to Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, because it can’t absorb large numbers of migrants who could flee here to evade U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s pledge of mass deportations.

Peter Wilkinson, who recently spent 21 months as Ms. Joly’s top lieutenant and previously served as chief of staff to former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty, said Canadians should be deeply concerned about Mr. Trump’s plan to deport up to 11 million undocumented migrants after he takes office in January.

While Mr. Trump has vowed to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico in a bid to stop illegal crossings and the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., Mr. Wilkinson worries about the threat of mass deportations.

“We just can’t take 11 million people. We can’t even take one million people or 500,000 people,” he said in an interview. “We have to stop people from coming in. We will be faced with something that as Canadians, that we never really faced before.”

Mr. Wilkinson said the country’s health care and social-welfare systems can’t handle potentially huge numbers of people crossing into Canada. While many groups will argue that this country should accept these migrants, he warned that this issue could fracture the Canadian consensus on immigration.

“Lots of groups in society will be saying ‘no, we can’t do that, it is inhumane,’ and I understand that,” he said. “We are straining a bit now on the consensus in the country in regard to immigration and refugees. This will blow it up.”…

Source: Canada can’t support influx of migrants fleeing Trump, must prevent border crossings, says former top aide

Mexico Could Respond To Trump’s Actions By Helping Less On Immigration

To watch and insights into the success of the Biden administration use of legal pathways and other measures to reduce the number of border crossers:

Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods from Mexico even though the Mexican government has already helped reduce illegal entry into the United States. Economists warn imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported into America from Canada and Mexico would harm the three economies and raise prices for U.S. consumers. In part due to Mexico’s cooperation, illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump was president. Analysts say his tariff threat and other actions could be counterproductive and upend current U.S.-Mexico cooperation on immigration.

Donald Trump’s Threats On Trade And Immigration

Although Inauguration Day remains several weeks away, Donald Trump has roiled relations with America’s neighbors. “In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump mentioned a caravan of migrants making its way to the United States from Mexico, and said he would use an executive order to levy a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border,” reported the New York Times.

“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” wrote Trump. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem,” he said. “We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump also said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from China. “Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” wrote Trump.

According to the American Action Forum, a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would cost the average U.S. household approximately $1,700 a year. The dislocation and lost sales experienced by U.S. companies when Canada and Mexico likely retaliate against the tariffs represent additional economic costs.

Illegal Immigration Is Lower Today Than When Trump Was President

Illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump left office. In October 2024, there were 56,530 Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border, a figure well below the 75,316 encounters in January 2021 when Trump was president. Starting in July 2024, encounters remained under the 60,000 level each month. Border Patrol encounters were higher in January 2021, even though the Covid-19 pandemic slowed the economy during Trump’s last month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the less illegal entry.)

Analysts credit the Biden administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Given this cooperation, Trump’s threats likely surprised the Mexican government.

“You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States,” wrote Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a letter to Trump. “As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection, encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States’ CBP One program.”…

Source: Mexico Could Respond To Trump’s Actions By Helping Less On Immigration

Canada didn’t live up to its values on immigration in recent years, Carney says

Of note (joining the parade):

Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says Canada didn’t live up to its values on immigration over the last few years as it allowed more people into the country than it could absorb.

Carney, who is currently a special adviser to the Liberal party, made those comments during an event in Ottawa held by Cardus, a Christian think tank.

Carney says Canada let newcomers down by admitting more workers and students than it could provide for, including with housing, health care and social services.

Earlier this fall, the Liberal government announced a plan to significantly reduced its immigration target for permanent residents and to dramatically scale back the number of temporary residents in Canada.

Those changes came about after a period of strong population growth that led to mounting criticism of the Liberal government’s immigration policies.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has acknowledged that the federal government did not get the balance right on immigration after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Source: Canada didn’t live up to its values on immigration in recent years, Carney says