Ham: Canada’s immigration crackdown could make for a more willing partner in Trump

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Perhaps but would not count on it. More likely that it will make it easier for a Conservative government as the Liberals will no longer be able to play the xenophobia card.:

…However, recent immigration crackdowns in Canada could move the close allies even closer, making for a more robust and bountiful relationship during Trump’s second four-year term. Recent moves by Ottawa on immigration could be the North Star that guides and even informs a nascent framework, still in the developmental stages, by an incoming administration bent on taking a hardline approach to the challenging issue.

Canada has turned away nearly 4,000 people per month(opens in a new tab) on average in 2024, a 20 per cent  increase over the 3,271 average in 2023. Moreover, immigration officials have refused more visitor visa applications per month than it has accepted.

In fact, in July of 2024, Ottawa turned away 5,853 foreign travellers; the most rejections since January 2019. Data also shows a sharp decline in approved visitor visas(opens in a new tab) as well as study and work permits, which had previously reached record highs in 2022 and 2023. With such an about face on immigration shown by Canada, the incoming Trump administration should be a more welcome and willing partner towards its northern neighbour. ..

Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.

Source: Canada’s immigration crackdown could make for a more willing partner in Trump

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Permit processing setback for Indian students in Canada

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Of note, primarily colleges (where the excesses and abuses largely occurred:

…Introduced in 2018, SDS enabled students from select countries, including India, to fast-track their applications if they fulfilled certain requirements, including securing a Canadian Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) valued at CA$20,635 (US$14,731) and submitting English or French language test scores. 

It notably shortened the waiting time for permits, allowing successful applicants to obtain visas within weeks, in contrast to the average processing time of eight weeks for Indian applicants under the standard application process.

The changes came into effect on 8 November, but students who submitted applications before that date will still be processed through the expedited stream. Indian students will now have to apply for study permits through Canada’s standard study permit stream. 

Originally accessible to applicants from China, India, and the Philippines, the programme subsequently broadened its scope to include additional countries, including Antigua and Barbuda, Brazil, Colombia, and Morocco, among others.

Canadian immigration authorities state the discontinuation of the SDS and NSE programmes is aimed at “strengthening programme integrity”, and is designed to create “a more equitable process” for international students, ensuring fair treatment for applicants from all countries.

Prioritising university applicants

Students from Punjab are more likely to be impacted as they enrol in Canada’s community colleges, while Canadian universities attract more students from large cities elsewhere in India, education agents said. 

“With Canada’s new cap of 437,000 study permits for 2025, I think this signals a clear shift toward prioritising degree-seeking students over diploma programmes,” said Maria Mathai, director of New Delhi-based education consultancy MM Advisory Services.

Mathai told University World News that the most immediate impact will be felt in the college sector, which accounted for 75% of SDS applications post-pandemic. She noted it could lead to an overall drop in approval rates.

In 2023, 60% of the 400,000 Indian students seeking to study in Canada applied through the SDS programme, which had a significantly higher approval rate – over 70% of applicants from India received study permits. 

In contrast, those applying through the regular study permit stream experienced much lower approval rates, at just 10%.

“Students pursuing diploma programmes, particularly from Punjab, will indeed face processing times which will increase from 1-3 weeks to 4-8 weeks,” said Mathai, adding it was to be expected as the original programme was launched to promote college applications….

Source: Permit processing setback for Indian students in Canada

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Public service job cuts loom as Ottawa misses spending and deficit targets

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Will likely be brutal with a change in government:

…Some argue part of the problem is today’s bureaucrats aren’t used to austerity and have only known growth for the past decade.

Today’s leaders may have been in the public service during the Harper government’s downsizing, but few were in senior positions directly responsible for managing those cuts. Back then, the government did regular strategic reviews, which were key to identifying budget cuts and the thousands of jobs that were eliminated. The Liberals had pledged a similar strategic review in their election platform, but it has yet to materialize, leaving some to question how prepared departments are to tackle current fiscal pressures.

It’s unclear what progress the government had made on these reductions. In fact, a PBO report that tracked the Liberals various spending reviews flagged the difficulty tracking the “overall plans, progress, and results” because there is no central document publicly available…

“There’s a coming squeeze here…and something has to give,” said Khan. A Liberal or a Conservative government in the future is “going to face the same stark choice. Before you cut programs that people want or need, the outsized growth of the public service has to be on the table. The unions will face this no matter who’s in power. It’s not going to go away.”

Source: Public service job cuts loom as Ottawa misses spending and deficit targets

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects – September 2024 Third Quarter

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Highlights (some data not yet posted on open data)

  • Permanent residents admissions: Increase January-September from 370,000 in 2023 to 379,000 in 2024 or 2.3 percent.   
  • TR2PR (Those already in Canada): Increase January-September from 199,000 in 2023 to 205,000 in 2024 or 3.3 percent. 
  • TRs-IMP: Decrease January-September from 681,000 in 2023 to 584,000 in 2024 or -14.2 percent.
  • TRs-TFWP: Decrease January-September from 160,000 in 2023 to 153,000 in 2024 or -4.0 percent.
  • Students: Decrease January-September from 544,000 in 2023 to 428,000 in 2024 or -21.3 percent. 
  • Asylum Claimants: Increase January-September from 100,000 in 2023 to 135,000 in 2024 or 34.6 percent.
  • Citizenship: Increase from 33,179 in June to 36,070 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): 15.4% (25.0%). Year-to date 2024 compared to 2023 increase of 16 percent OPEN DATA NOT UPDATED FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER
  • Visitor Visas: Increase from 118,402 in June to 127,399 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): -19.7% (37.6%). OPEN DATA NOT UPDATED FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/canadian-immigration-tracker-key-slides-september-2024/273373580

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PBO: Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap 

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Good assessment, particularly with projected outflows of temporary residents. Key findings:

  • Assuming that the population evolves in line with the Government’s projection, we estimate that the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan will reduce Canada’s housing gap in 2030 by 534,000 units (45 per cent). After accounting for the Government’s new immigration plan, we estimate Canada’s housing gap in 2030 to be 658,000 units.
  • Combined with our updated baseline outlook of 1.7 million net housing completions, closing the housing gap in Canada would require a total of 2.3 million housing completions by 2030, which would translate into 390,000 total units completed annually, on average, over 2025 to 2030.
  • We judge that there is significant risk to the demographic projection presented in the Government’s new immigration plan—particularly to the projected outflow of non-permanent residents. Our estimated reductions in household formation and the housing gap are uncertain and likely represent upper-bound estimates.

On October 24, the Government released its 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP), which included permanent resident targets and, for the first time, temporary resident targets for international students and temporary foreign workers. For permanent residents, the plan highlights a decrease in permanent resident admissions from 464,265 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. For non-permanent residents (NPRs), the plan presents arrival targets set with the goal of reducing the number of NPRs to 5 per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

Given the immigration targets announced in this plan, the Government projects that the Canadian population will decline by 0.2 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, before returning to population growth of 0.8 per cent in 2027. If the population evolves as the Government projects, it will be the first time Canada experiences an annual decline in its population. Although the ILP projects fewer permanent resident admissions and fewer NPR arrivals, the projected decline in the population will be driven by large outflows of NPRs. Excluding individuals who will transition to permanent residency, the plan assumes that 2.8 million temporary residents will leave the country over the next 3 years—equivalent to 93 per cent of the current NPR population….

Source: Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap

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Chris Selley: The perils of ‘defining’ bigotry

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

A valid dissenting view. Although I find illustrative examples are helpful improving understanding and can be the basis for conversation:

…This is the world we live in. If Holocaust denial is illegal (or sort of), then, the thinking goes, why shouldn’t denying the Nakba or the disastrous effects of the residential school system be illegal (or sort of) as well? A reasonable person could give a reasonable answer to that question. But governments aren’t reasonable people.

As I say, I totally understand Jewish groups’ concern. Some of the definitions of anti-Palestinian racism out there certainly seem studiously, deliberately vague. Citing the Arab Canadian Lawyers Association, Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East includes as examples “erasing the human rights and equal dignity and worth of Palestinians,” which is meaningless; and “justifying violence against Palestinians,” which could easily include defending Israel’s right to retaliate against Hamas atrocities.

But it should also be noted that Elghawaby welcomed the prospect of a definition, not any specific definition. I see little point in such “definitions” if they’re not going to be enshrined in law. But it would have made much more sense for Canada to craft its own definition of antisemitism instead of signing on to an international one that, in my view, does activate freedom-of-speech concerns. Free speech in Canada is far more protected than in many of our peer nations, and that’s a good thing.

It probably would have made far more sense still to leave all of this alone. Canadian law sets an appropriately high bar for prosecuting hate speech against any group. We don’t need the added confusion and division of “defining” every single form of bigotry.

Source: Chris Selley: The perils of ‘defining’ bigotry

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More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters may be fake, says top immigration official

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Of note (about 7 percent):

More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters from Canadian colleges and universities have been flagged as potentially fraudulent this year, according to the top immigration official in charge of international students.

Enhanced checks by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada have found scores of would-be foreign students who said they had a genuine place to study may have been attaching a fraudulent acceptance letter to their application to get into Canada.

The tighter checks were introduced after a group of international students applying for permanent residence last year faced deportation because an unlicensed immigration consultant in India had submitted fake acceptance letters with their applications for study permits.

Bronwyn May, director-general of the International Students Branch at the Immigration Department, told MPs last week that since IRCC started verifying acceptance letters from colleges and universities in the past year, officials have “intercepted more than 10,000 potentially fraudulent letters of acceptance.”

She said 93 per cent of the 500,000 acceptance letters attached to study permit applications the department checked in the past 10 months had been verified as genuine by a college or university….

Source: More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters may be fake, says top immigration official

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Keller: I’m not crazy about the Trump administration either, but we have to work with them on the border

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Reality:

…Mr. Trump’s nominated “border czar,” Tom Homan, is originally from upstate New York and wants to resolve this issue. Ottawa should be eager to help.

Canada will always have an immigration policy that is different from the U.S., independent of it and (hopefully) a lot smarter. We will decide how many immigrants to accept, and how they are chosen. But on border integrity, a precondition of national sovereignty, Washington and Ottawa should be aligned, regardless of who’s in the White House.

Both countries want to limit the number of people arriving and staying without invitation or legal justification. And Canada badly wants refugee claims decided in the first country of arrival.

On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said that when it comes to border security, “there is no daylight at all between the goals of our two countries.” Ottawa needs to keep saying that.

Roxham Road is closed because of the expanded Safe Third Country Agreement, under which someone who comes to Canada from the U.S. to make a refugee claim can generally be returned to the U.S., for their claim to be decided there. That’s also what the U.S. wants Mexico to agree to, and Canada should share that goal. It’s profoundly in our national interest for the Trump administration to embrace and honour this principle.

Canada is not ready for a refugee crisis, because we’re already in one. More than 132,000 refugee claims were made in the first nine months of this year. Many are people on tourist visas who filed their claim after they got off the plane; others are visa students. The numbers have been steadily growing. In 2019, there were 62,000 claims. Between 2011 and 2016, the annual average was just 18,250….

Source: I’m not crazy about the Trump administration either, but we have to work with them on the border

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Black Class Action Secretariat apologizes after public disapproval of federal official

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Always a risk for activists:

…Six months later, the group, and its president, Nicholas Marcus Thompson, have retracted their original statement and issued a new one, apologizing to Mohammed.

“The purpose of the press release was to highlight issues of systemic racism at the Canadian Human Rights Commission and ensuring that government appointments are consistent with addressing and combatting systemic racism,” the Oct. 15 release states. “Unfortunately, the Press Release could be fairly interpreted as being critical of Ms. Mohammed. For this, Black Class Action and Nicholas Thompson apologize unreservedly.”

The statement said that Mohammed “understands racism and is an advocate for racial equality and combatting systemic racism and discrimination. Her commitment to fighting anti-black or any other type of racism should not be questioned. She is also committed to upholding the highest values and ethics and she has upheld the public service’s ethics and values.”

At the time of the April press release, Mohammed declined to comment on the matter via her lawyer, Charles Daoust.

In June 2023, Mohammed filed a lawsuit against Thompson and the organization, claiming their statements were libellous and defamatory. The lawsuit said that BCAS’ statements contained “serious false allegations against her” and sought $50,000 in damages.

Daoust said the lawsuit has been settled “during confidential mediation to the satisfaction of all parties.”

“Ms. Mohammed, the plaintiff, will be discontinuing the action without costs,” he said in an email.

Noting that Mohammed is racialized, the claim said Mohammed didn’t have the opportunity to defend herself or respond to the allegations before they were published on the Black Class Action Secretariat’s website.

It also said the comments were published recklessly to “exact pressure, influence and gain leverage over the Government of Canada in the context of the Federal Court class action” and that the actions were “motivated by shameless and careless attention-seeking and greed and by jealousy.” The Black Class Action Secretariat’s lawsuit against the federal government was in Federal Court for more than two weeks for certification hearings that ended Thursday….

Source: Black Class Action Secretariat apologizes after public disapproval of federal official

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Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he expects tough conversations with the U.S. on border security

2024/11/15 Leave a comment

Understatement?

…Mr. Miller said Canada and the U.S. have had “equal challenges with respect to the flow coming from the U.S. into Canada, and have taken measures to secure it and to close some of the ways people get in here in an irregular fashion.”

“That’s going to continue,” he added, saying he would keep on working in the national interest of Canadians, which he believes “is aligned with the current administration and the one that is coming in to replace it.”

“I expect that conversation to continue fully, and I expect there to be some tough conversations,” he added.

In 2017, Haitians streamed into Canada from the U.S. after the first Trump administration ended temporary protected status for Haitians who had fled to the U.S. The policy sparked an influx of Haitians claiming asylum at the “irregular” Roxham Road border crossing into Quebec. After talks with the U.S., Roxham Road was closed in 2023. The Safe Third Country Agreement was renegotiated, barring migrants making it to Canada through irregular crossings, including Roxham Road, from claiming asylum.

With an estimated 11 million undocumented residents in the U.S. facing removal, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has predicted that the “saga of Roxham Road” could begin again.

Mr. Miller said the agreement has allowed Canada to have a managed flow of migrants that is important to Canada’s economic relationship with the U.S.

“Are there changes to be made at any particular point in time when we see behaviours changing, when we see our security agencies advising us to adopt a different posture? I think absolutely,” he said. “Those are conversations that won’t be had in public.”…

Source: Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he expects tough conversations with the U.S. on border security

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