Permit processing setback for Indian students in Canada

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Of note, primarily colleges (where the excesses and abuses largely occurred:

…Introduced in 2018, SDS enabled students from select countries, including India, to fast-track their applications if they fulfilled certain requirements, including securing a Canadian Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) valued at CA$20,635 (US$14,731) and submitting English or French language test scores. 

It notably shortened the waiting time for permits, allowing successful applicants to obtain visas within weeks, in contrast to the average processing time of eight weeks for Indian applicants under the standard application process.

The changes came into effect on 8 November, but students who submitted applications before that date will still be processed through the expedited stream. Indian students will now have to apply for study permits through Canada’s standard study permit stream. 

Originally accessible to applicants from China, India, and the Philippines, the programme subsequently broadened its scope to include additional countries, including Antigua and Barbuda, Brazil, Colombia, and Morocco, among others.

Canadian immigration authorities state the discontinuation of the SDS and NSE programmes is aimed at “strengthening programme integrity”, and is designed to create “a more equitable process” for international students, ensuring fair treatment for applicants from all countries.

Prioritising university applicants

Students from Punjab are more likely to be impacted as they enrol in Canada’s community colleges, while Canadian universities attract more students from large cities elsewhere in India, education agents said. 

“With Canada’s new cap of 437,000 study permits for 2025, I think this signals a clear shift toward prioritising degree-seeking students over diploma programmes,” said Maria Mathai, director of New Delhi-based education consultancy MM Advisory Services.

Mathai told University World News that the most immediate impact will be felt in the college sector, which accounted for 75% of SDS applications post-pandemic. She noted it could lead to an overall drop in approval rates.

In 2023, 60% of the 400,000 Indian students seeking to study in Canada applied through the SDS programme, which had a significantly higher approval rate – over 70% of applicants from India received study permits. 

In contrast, those applying through the regular study permit stream experienced much lower approval rates, at just 10%.

“Students pursuing diploma programmes, particularly from Punjab, will indeed face processing times which will increase from 1-3 weeks to 4-8 weeks,” said Mathai, adding it was to be expected as the original programme was launched to promote college applications….

Source: Permit processing setback for Indian students in Canada

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects – September 2024 Third Quarter

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Highlights (some data not yet posted on open data)

  • Permanent residents admissions: Increase January-September from 370,000 in 2023 to 379,000 in 2024 or 2.3 percent.   
  • TR2PR (Those already in Canada): Increase January-September from 199,000 in 2023 to 205,000 in 2024 or 3.3 percent. 
  • TRs-IMP: Decrease January-September from 681,000 in 2023 to 584,000 in 2024 or -14.2 percent.
  • TRs-TFWP: Decrease January-September from 160,000 in 2023 to 153,000 in 2024 or -4.0 percent.
  • Students: Decrease January-September from 544,000 in 2023 to 428,000 in 2024 or -21.3 percent. 
  • Asylum Claimants: Increase January-September from 100,000 in 2023 to 135,000 in 2024 or 34.6 percent.
  • Citizenship: Increase from 33,179 in June to 36,070 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): 15.4% (25.0%). Year-to date 2024 compared to 2023 increase of 16 percent OPEN DATA NOT UPDATED FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER
  • Visitor Visas: Increase from 118,402 in June to 127,399 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): -19.7% (37.6%). OPEN DATA NOT UPDATED FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/canadian-immigration-tracker-key-slides-september-2024/273373580

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PBO: Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap 

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Good assessment, particularly with projected outflows of temporary residents. Key findings:

  • Assuming that the population evolves in line with the Government’s projection, we estimate that the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan will reduce Canada’s housing gap in 2030 by 534,000 units (45 per cent). After accounting for the Government’s new immigration plan, we estimate Canada’s housing gap in 2030 to be 658,000 units.
  • Combined with our updated baseline outlook of 1.7 million net housing completions, closing the housing gap in Canada would require a total of 2.3 million housing completions by 2030, which would translate into 390,000 total units completed annually, on average, over 2025 to 2030.
  • We judge that there is significant risk to the demographic projection presented in the Government’s new immigration plan—particularly to the projected outflow of non-permanent residents. Our estimated reductions in household formation and the housing gap are uncertain and likely represent upper-bound estimates.

On October 24, the Government released its 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP), which included permanent resident targets and, for the first time, temporary resident targets for international students and temporary foreign workers. For permanent residents, the plan highlights a decrease in permanent resident admissions from 464,265 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. For non-permanent residents (NPRs), the plan presents arrival targets set with the goal of reducing the number of NPRs to 5 per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

Given the immigration targets announced in this plan, the Government projects that the Canadian population will decline by 0.2 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, before returning to population growth of 0.8 per cent in 2027. If the population evolves as the Government projects, it will be the first time Canada experiences an annual decline in its population. Although the ILP projects fewer permanent resident admissions and fewer NPR arrivals, the projected decline in the population will be driven by large outflows of NPRs. Excluding individuals who will transition to permanent residency, the plan assumes that 2.8 million temporary residents will leave the country over the next 3 years—equivalent to 93 per cent of the current NPR population….

Source: Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap

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More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters may be fake, says top immigration official

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Of note (about 7 percent):

More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters from Canadian colleges and universities have been flagged as potentially fraudulent this year, according to the top immigration official in charge of international students.

Enhanced checks by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada have found scores of would-be foreign students who said they had a genuine place to study may have been attaching a fraudulent acceptance letter to their application to get into Canada.

The tighter checks were introduced after a group of international students applying for permanent residence last year faced deportation because an unlicensed immigration consultant in India had submitted fake acceptance letters with their applications for study permits.

Bronwyn May, director-general of the International Students Branch at the Immigration Department, told MPs last week that since IRCC started verifying acceptance letters from colleges and universities in the past year, officials have “intercepted more than 10,000 potentially fraudulent letters of acceptance.”

She said 93 per cent of the 500,000 acceptance letters attached to study permit applications the department checked in the past 10 months had been verified as genuine by a college or university….

Source: More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters may be fake, says top immigration official

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Keller: I’m not crazy about the Trump administration either, but we have to work with them on the border

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Reality:

…Mr. Trump’s nominated “border czar,” Tom Homan, is originally from upstate New York and wants to resolve this issue. Ottawa should be eager to help.

Canada will always have an immigration policy that is different from the U.S., independent of it and (hopefully) a lot smarter. We will decide how many immigrants to accept, and how they are chosen. But on border integrity, a precondition of national sovereignty, Washington and Ottawa should be aligned, regardless of who’s in the White House.

Both countries want to limit the number of people arriving and staying without invitation or legal justification. And Canada badly wants refugee claims decided in the first country of arrival.

On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said that when it comes to border security, “there is no daylight at all between the goals of our two countries.” Ottawa needs to keep saying that.

Roxham Road is closed because of the expanded Safe Third Country Agreement, under which someone who comes to Canada from the U.S. to make a refugee claim can generally be returned to the U.S., for their claim to be decided there. That’s also what the U.S. wants Mexico to agree to, and Canada should share that goal. It’s profoundly in our national interest for the Trump administration to embrace and honour this principle.

Canada is not ready for a refugee crisis, because we’re already in one. More than 132,000 refugee claims were made in the first nine months of this year. Many are people on tourist visas who filed their claim after they got off the plane; others are visa students. The numbers have been steadily growing. In 2019, there were 62,000 claims. Between 2011 and 2016, the annual average was just 18,250….

Source: I’m not crazy about the Trump administration either, but we have to work with them on the border

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Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he expects tough conversations with the U.S. on border security

2024/11/15 Leave a comment

Understatement?

…Mr. Miller said Canada and the U.S. have had “equal challenges with respect to the flow coming from the U.S. into Canada, and have taken measures to secure it and to close some of the ways people get in here in an irregular fashion.”

“That’s going to continue,” he added, saying he would keep on working in the national interest of Canadians, which he believes “is aligned with the current administration and the one that is coming in to replace it.”

“I expect that conversation to continue fully, and I expect there to be some tough conversations,” he added.

In 2017, Haitians streamed into Canada from the U.S. after the first Trump administration ended temporary protected status for Haitians who had fled to the U.S. The policy sparked an influx of Haitians claiming asylum at the “irregular” Roxham Road border crossing into Quebec. After talks with the U.S., Roxham Road was closed in 2023. The Safe Third Country Agreement was renegotiated, barring migrants making it to Canada through irregular crossings, including Roxham Road, from claiming asylum.

With an estimated 11 million undocumented residents in the U.S. facing removal, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has predicted that the “saga of Roxham Road” could begin again.

Mr. Miller said the agreement has allowed Canada to have a managed flow of migrants that is important to Canada’s economic relationship with the U.S.

“Are there changes to be made at any particular point in time when we see behaviours changing, when we see our security agencies advising us to adopt a different posture? I think absolutely,” he said. “Those are conversations that won’t be had in public.”…

Source: Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he expects tough conversations with the U.S. on border security

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Urback: In preparation for Trump 2.0, Ottawa must broadcast that our border is closed, Kheiriddin: In the age of Trump, Canada must stem the refugee tide

2024/11/14 Leave a comment

Two commentaries with similar suggestions:

…So what can Canada do? Start sucking up to Mr. Trump to try to protect the revised STCA? Hire more officers, more border control agents, more immigration staff? Build a wall, and make Mexico pay for it? Two of three are probably prudent actions. But there is something else Canada can do in the interim that is much more simple: start broadcasting, now, that asylum-seekers from the U.S. will be denied entry to Canada.

In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rather infamously published a welcome to migrants of the world, tweeting, “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada.” To now broadcast the opposite – through tweets, diplomatic missions, perhaps even advertisements – would be entirely off-brand for a government whose belief in its own sanctimony is probably powerful enough to run cars, but extraordinarily necessary considering the circumstances. Asylum-seekers risk their lives with human smugglers, treacherous conditions, and a dearth of resources and services when and if they do make it to Canada. It wouldn’t be fair to them, nor is it fair to those already in the country, for the government to leave the misconception that Canada can accommodate unchecked.

Source: In preparation for Trump 2.0, Ottawa must broadcast that our border is closed

…To discourage people from coming, the government must remove the 14-day exemption and require all refugee applications to be made solely from outside of Canada. It must also allocate more resources to speed up claim processing times.

Critics will say that this will drive migrants underground, like in the U.S., where they cross the border illegally and never seek status for fear of being deported. This is a risk notably in Canada’s seven designated “sanctuary cities,” where illegal migrants can receive services and benefits without having to disclose their status: Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal, Ajax, Edmonton, Hamilton and London. Since cities are legally creatures of the province, Ottawa needs to cooperate with provincial government to find a legal means of revoking or outlawing the designation.

Unfortunately, we may not get a lot of cooperation from our neighbours. American cities have already encouraged migrants to leave, including to Canada. All the more reason to send a tough signal now that we won’t let this happen, before Trump takes office — and before the migration tsunami hits.

Source: Tasha Kheiriddin: In the age of Trump, Canada must stem the refugee tide

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Immigration minister says ‘not everyone is welcome’ in response to concerns about Trump deportation plan

2024/11/13 Leave a comment

Needed message from the minister and lawyers identifying a possible loophole:

…On Monday, several immigration lawyers urged Ottawa to change a policy that allows migrants fleeing from the U.S. to claim asylum here if they cross the border illegally and evade the authorities for two weeks.

In 2017, Haitians streamed into Canada from the U.S. after the first Trump administration ended temporary protected status for Haitians who had fled to the U.S. The policy sparked an influx of Haitians claiming asylum at the “irregular” Roxham Road border crossing into Quebec.

After talks with the U.S., the Safe Third Country Agreement was revised and Roxham Road was closed in 2023. The changes tightened the rules, but allowed someone entering Canada illegally from the U.S. and remaining undiscovered for 14 days to file a refugee claim in Canada. Those arriving from the U.S. at airports and regular border crossings are usually turned back.

The lawyers cautioned that unless Ottawa changes the policy quickly, record numbers of people facing deportation by Mr. Trump would try to make it to Canada, where they could qualify for a work permit and health care while waiting for their claim to be processed.

Winnipeg refugee and immigration lawyer David Matas urged the government to speak to the Biden administration now, before Mr. Trump takes office in January, about changing the agreement. He said the 14-day provision is “an incentive to traffickers to get round the system.”…

Source: Immigration minister says ‘not everyone is welcome’ in response to concerns about Trump deportation plan

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Esses: Canada’s immigration strategy: How reduced targets can preserve positive attitudes

2024/11/13 Leave a comment

More wishful thinking than based on evidence and public opinion research. Striking her focus on Permanent Residents only, with no mention of temporary residents, which have grown the most. Perhaps she is trying to provide a case for pro-immigration academics and the like that there is a silver lining in the cuts. But control or management needs to be demonstrated in implementation, which Miller has started to do:

….In announcing the new targets for immigration levels, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said “Canadians want the federal government to better manage the immigration system.” By managing immigration, Miller suggests that the integrity of the immigration system will be preserved. 

These statements, paired with reduced immigration targets, may help restore Canadians’ sense of control over immigration. This, in turn, could prevent the potential cycle of perceived lack of control, negative attitudes toward immigrants and poor immigrant integration.

We recommend that public leaders continue to show that Canadians have control over immigration. At the same time, it is important for them to highlight the benefits of immigration for Canada. They should also express favourable views of all classes of immigrants, whether they are coming to work, join family in Canada or come as refugees. 

Expressing these views can help restore Canadians’ positive attitudes, as seen during the Syrian refugee crisis. In 2015, newly elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared positive messages about Syrian refugees. This messaging, amplified by the media, made Canadians more open to the arrival of Syrian refugees. It also promoted more positive attitudes toward refugees in general. 

Reducing immigration levels could reinforce the blame placed on immigrants for current societal problems. However, it also provides an opportunity to promote more positive views. Political leaders can shift the focus away from negative views by emphasizing Canada’s control over immigration and the importance of immigrants to the country’s future. Business leaders are already proclaiming this importance and can contribute to the promotion of positive attitudes toward immigrants and immigration. 

By emphasizing both control and the benefits of immigration, leaders can preserve positive attitudes toward immigrants. They can also maintain support for the immigration system, ensuring it continues to meet Canada’s evolving needs. This approach can help build a welcoming society that values and recognizes immigrants as essential to Canada’s future.

Source: Canada’s immigration strategy: How reduced targets can preserve positive attitudes

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Trump is stacking his White House with immigration hawks

2024/11/13 Leave a comment

Will be a bumpy ride and the direction is clear. As the economic and human toll becomes clearer, there may be some pushback:

President-elect Donald Trump is set to install immigration hawks for two major White House roles, key positions that don’t require Senate confirmation and will enable them to enact his sweeping immigration agenda across the federal government.

Tom Homan, his pick for “border czar,” and Stephen Miller, his deputy White House chief of staff for policy, won’t formally helm any arms of government, but they are likely to carry enormous sway with cabinet secretaries and agency directors. They are expected to be viewed as the president’s direct emissaries, empowered to push for specific actions and track progress implementing Trump’s agenda.

But beyond DHS, they will likely take interest in the Department of Health and Human Services — which plays a role in handling refugee resettlement and unaccompanied migrant children — and the Labor Department, which issues key certifications for certain employment-based visa programs.

The State Department, which issues visas, will also be a focus, as will the Justice Department, which runs the immigration courts.

The expected installation of Homan and Miller signals Trump intends to deliver on his promise of mass deportations. The Trump transition didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Homan formerly headed the DHS division responsible for arresting, detaining and deporting undocumented immigrants. He spent much of his career working on immigration enforcement, holding leadership roles at Immigration and Customs Enforcement during both the Obama and Trump administrations.

And Miller has spent more than a decade in Washington working to reduce legal immigration to the United States and increase deportations. He was one of the earliest supporters of Trump’s 2016 presidential bid and has remained closely allied with the president through the tumultuous years since.

“Trump is clearly being far more deliberate about how he’s making his appointments and spending his time working with people he knows and trusts,” said Daniel Stein, the president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which advocates for increased restrictions on immigration.

Source: Trump is stacking his White House with immigration hawks

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