Canada’s limits on immigration targets will cost billions in lost revenue over next five years: RBC report

2024/12/05 Leave a comment

Underlines just how much the government relied on its expansionist immigration policies that increased GDP and related tax revenues but weakened GDP per capita growth:

The federal government’s plan to scale back Canada’s annual immigration targets will lower revenues by billions of dollars over the next five years, according to a new RBC report that urges Ottawa to take a cautious approach to new spending.

Royal Bank of Canada economists Cynthia Leach and Rachel Battaglia’s release Tuesday, which looks ahead to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s coming fall economic statement, says fewer immigrants will translate into lower consumption and employment growth for the economy as a whole – resulting in a significant negative impact on federal finances.

Ms. Leach, a former economist with the federal Finance Department, said in an interview that Ottawa should stay within its self-imposed targets to control the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio.

“I do think it’s important for the government to stick to its fiscal anchors‚” she said.

Ms. Leach said the government is facing several sources of economic volatility, including the immigration changes and talk of higher tariffs from U.S. president-elect Donald Trump.

The economists project that revised immigration policies will lower federal revenues by about $50-billion over five years, which is only partly offset by a $30-billion fiscal improvement tied primarily to lower-than-anticipated interest rates. The overall fiscal landscape has worsened by about $20-billion over five years compared with the 2024 budget estimates, according to the RBC report….

Source: Canada’s limits on immigration targets will cost billions in lost revenue over next five years: RBC report

Filed under Immigration, Multiculturalism Tagged with ,

Clark: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

2024/12/04 Leave a comment

Of note:

…On Sunday, he called for a crackdown on people coming to Canada – tightening visa requirements to make it harder to visit and setting a cap on the number of asylum-seekers.

For a long time, Mr. Poilievre didn’t go there. His party wanted MPs and candidates to steer clear of anything that suggested tough talk on immigration. It’s only in the last few months that Mr. Poilievre has ramped up criticism of the Liberal government’s failure to control a surge of temporary residents.

Now, he’s talking about cracking down on “false refugees” and warning “our Canadian jobs are being taken.”

“I think it is time for a cap. And it is time to get rid of all of the abuse,” Mr. Poilievre said in his press conference on Sunday.

He added: “We need to shut off the flow of false refugee claims who are in no danger in their country of origin but are sneaking in either through our porous border or our weak visa system, and when they land here making a false claim.”

That’s the kind of lexicon Mr. Poilievre had kept from his lips for a long time, and on an issue that wasn’t in the repertoire of attacks against the government in the Commons until November….

Source: The return of Trump has Poilievre talking about a crackdown beyond the U.S. border

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , , ,

Canada pulls refugee welcome mat, launches ads warning of stricter asylum rules

2024/12/04 Leave a comment

Responsible shift:

Once presenting itself as one of the world’s most welcoming countries to refugees and immigrants, Canada is launching a global online ad campaign cautioning asylum seekers that making a claim is hard. The C$250,000 (US$179,000) in advertisements will run through March in 11 languages, including Spanish, Urdu, Ukrainian, Hindi and Tamil, the immigration department said. They are part of a broader shift in tone by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopular government on immigration and an effort to clamp down on refugee claims.

Migrants have been blamed for high housing prices, although some experts argue this is a simplistic explanation, and polls show a growing number of Canadians think the country admits too many newcomers.

The four-month campaign is budgeted to cost a third of the total spend on similar advertisements over the previous seven years.

Search queries such as “how to claim asylum in Canada” and “refugee Canada” will prompt sponsored content titled “Canada’s asylum system – Asylum Facts,” the ministry said.

“Claiming asylum in Canada is not easy. There are strict guidelines to qualify. Find out what you need to know before you make a life-changing decision,” one ad reads. Canada has long been seen as a welcoming place for newcomers. Now its leaders are slashing immigration and trying to get temporary residents to leave and to prevent people fleeing US president-elect Donald Trump from claiming asylum.

“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada is working to combat the spread of misinformation and disinformation about Canada’s immigration system, and to highlight the risks of working with unauthorised representatives,” a department spokesperson wrote in an email.

Refugee case backlog

It may be an uphill battle. Canada’s refugee system faces a 260,000-case backlog amid growing global displacement. The government has little control over who claims asylum. Its immigration minister has hinted at fast-tracking claims deemed unlikely to succeed. The government is hoping millions of people will leave the country on their own when their visas expire, and the immigration minister has threatened to deport them if they do not.

It is a dramatic about-face for a government that for years set out the welcome mat. In January 2017, when Trump took office, Trudeau tweeted: “To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada.” On November 17, nearly eight years later, Trudeau published a video promoting his government’s immigration policies, calling out “bad actors” who “have been exploiting our immigration system for their own interests.” Last month, the Liberal government, trailing in polls, announced it is slashing permanent and temporary immigration. The population is projected to shrink slightly for two years.

Ad campaigns to counter misinformation on how to apply for asylum could be useful, said University of Ottawa law professor and immigration expert Jamie Chai Yun Liew.

“On the other hand, if they’re saying, ‘You’re not welcome’ … it does seem contrary to Canada’s approach in the past,” she said. “They’ve switched their messaging.”

Source: Canada pulls refugee welcome mat, launches ads warning of stricter asylum rules

Filed under Immigration, Refugees Tagged with ,

Elon Musk vs. Stephen Miller: Washington preps for battle on high-tech immigration

2024/12/03 Leave a comment

Will be interesting to watch. I’m betting on Citizen Musk but we shall see:

High tech companies — with Elon Musk seemingly on their side — are gearing up to push the incoming Trump administration to let more high-skilled immigrants into the U.S., setting up a potential conflict with the nativist figures in Trump’s orbit who want to minimize immigration at all costs.

During Donald Trump’s first term, Silicon Valley firms tried to impress upon Washington the importance of high-skilled immigration. They were stymied by people like Stephen Miller, a key figure in the first Trump administration now slated to serve as White House deputy chief of staff for policy.

But the tech lobby now has a powerful new ally in Musk, a key Trump donor and close confidant who since the election has called for fixes that would make it easier for “super talented people” to immigrate.

Other newly minted Trump backers in Silicon Valley, including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have placed high-skilled immigration at the center of their Washington agenda. Their rising influence has already had an impact, prompting Trump himself to float giving green cards to talented students earlier this year.

“We definitely see it as an opportunity,” said Linda Moore, president and chief executive of industry group TechNet.

Silicon Valley views the incoming administration and GOP congressional majority as its best chance in years to pass policies that let in more immigrants with rare skills in science, technology, engineering and math. Though it feels counterintuitive, Trump’s antipathy toward illegal immigration could leave him uniquely positioned to argue for more of the legal kind — especially if it comes wrapped in an argument about making America more competitive.

“In the same way that it took Nixon to go to China — because he was tough on China — President Trump may have an interesting opportunity” to get the GOP onboard with high-skilled immigration, said Vivek Chilukuri, director of the technology and national security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.

But tech lobbyists and Musk aren’t the only ones working Trump on STEM immigration. Hardcore immigration restrictionists — informally led by Miller — are also in the president-elect’s ear, cautioning that foreign STEM workers take American jobs and depress wages in high-tech industries. They prevailed during Trump’s previous presidency, when under Miller’s influence, Trump slashed the number of green cards issued and denied applications and extensions for H-1B and other skilled visas, causing some companies to lose skilled workers.

Dan Stein, president of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, believes Trump is “definitely going to be more receptive to certain kinds of legal immigration expansion” than he was in the past. Like other restrictionists, he’s warily eyeing the emerging influence of tech billionaires on the president-elect — and warning of consequences if Trump and congressional Republicans cave to their immigration asks.

“These tech lobbyists think they’re going to be feeding at the trough, just making all kinds of demands because Elon is going to support them. They’re in for a big surprise,” said Stein. He added that Trump “has to walk a very fine line so that people don’t feel betrayed.”

Other restrictionists are also alarmed. “Will the Trump administration kowtow to Silicon Valley CEOs or will it protect American tech workers? We shall see,” said Eric Ruark, director of research at anti-immigration group NumbersUSA.

The tech lobby has long urged Washington to boost the amount of STEM immigrants allowed into the country — typically through increases to the annual cap of H-1B and other visas, or through programs that would increase the availability of green cards or attach them to diplomas earned by foreign students. From microchip companies to emerging artificial intelligence firms, a wide range of tech interests warn there simply aren’t enough tech experts to staff their facilities or achieve America’s long-term strategic goals.

“AI, quantum, biotechnology — we can’t snap our fingers tomorrow and create the STEM PhDs that we need to compete in all of these areas,” said Chilukuri, whose nonprofit is funded in part by tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon and Google, as well as tech billionaires like Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , , , , ,

Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms

2024/12/03 Leave a comment

Former minister Kenney used the terms “bogus claimants” vs bonafide, Poilievre uses the term those who lie:

With gridlock in Parliament set to continue, Poilievre said Conservatives “will make accommodations to quickly pass a border plan if it goes towards fixing Trudeau’s broken border.”

He said Canada should also cap the number of asylum seekers as it faces a significant influx in refugee claims.

Canada had nearly 250,000 refugee claims in the queue as of Sept. 30, 2024, having approved more than 33,000 claims between January and the end of September.

In all of 2023, Canada accepted 37,000 refugee claims, and in 2022, it accepted 28,000.

“I love real refugees,” Poilievre said. “Our country was built in large part by real refugees who were genuinely fleeing danger, like my wife. But I have no time for people who lie to come into our country, and that is the problem we have to cut off.”

Source: Poilievre calls for asylum seeker cap, border plan as U.S. tariff threat looms

Filed under Immigration, Refugees Tagged with , ,

Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

2024/12/03 Leave a comment

Setting up expectations, dealing with the reality. We shall see:

Republican lawmakers are plotting a major revamp of immigration law and border restrictions, in a bid to deliver on one of President-elect Donald Trump’s signature issues. So far, their odds of going as big as conservatives want are looking bleak.

Despite controlling the House and Senate, the GOP faces major political hurdles down every possible path for enacting the illegal immigration crackdown that was one of their big election promises.

Immigration hardliners and those Republicans who have raised concerns about far-reaching restrictions on asylum or deportations are at odds over just how far to go on border security issues. The GOP will likely have a slim House majority — potentially with no room for error — to pull off immigration changes and will struggle to win over Senate Democrats who could filibuster legislation from the minority. Republicans have a potential procedural tool for sidestepping the filibuster — a process known as budget reconciliation — but it appears that rules governing the maneuver may prevent them from including a big revamp of immigration policy.

“We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican who has clashed with more hard-line conservatives over the issue. “What does a conference in the House want? What does the conference in the Senate want? What does President Trump want? And then that’s when we have a short window to be able to jam that all through.”

The looming struggle over immigration underscores the huge challenges Republicans face in delivering on their policy promises next year with a narrow margin in the House, the chaotic influence of Trump and internal divides even on issues that otherwise appear to unite the party….

Source: Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Watt | The border wake-up call is ringing — bring on the drones, helicopters and patrols

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Just as there is a risk in understating the expected income, there is a similar risk in overstating, as some premiers and commentators have done. But the times provide an opportunity to fix some of the things that need fixing from a Canadian perspective, recognizing that some is substantive and some performative:

…Because for all the supposed people or illicit goods that might flow between our borders, America can handle our “problem,” our traffic — we, on the other hand, cannot even begin to dream of sufficiently handling a mass influx of migrants across our border and into our cities.

We don’t have the resources, space, or public appetite. Moreover, right now, we don’t have clear and focused public discourse on this issue.

We don’t need a sober “reality check” when it comes to this debate. What should be — but evidently is not — abundantly clear to our political class is that Donald Trump will say anything — fact or fiction — to improve his bargaining position and get his way. What we need is a strong plan to reinforce our border. Because that is the only way to prepare and do what we need to do — kill two birds with one stone.

First, to show Trump we’re making progress on a critical political priority for his administration: border security. Second, to prepare for the potential influx of migrants that will look to head to Canada the minute he takes office.

That plan should consist of more drones, helicopters and patrols as the RCMP and our border agency has asked for — but it also must include stricter punishments for the phoney, unauthorized immigration consultants and human traffickers that prey on people’s lives and livelihoods.

Borders are lines in the sand. Symbolic by nature. That’s precisely why they’re such fertile ground for politicians to grandstand, to deceive, to promise then, let down.

It’s also why reinforcing them with action, not words, is what the Canadian public must demand.

Source: Opinion | The border wake-up call is ringing — bring on the drones, helicopters and patrols

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years 

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Some useful data that helps understand USA concerns and provides shared incentives for better managing the border.

…While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet committed to a plan for increasing Canadian border security, Quebec’s Premier François Legault has called for one.“I think now’s not the time to play at whether it’s true or not that our borders are not secure. I think it’s important that a plan be tabled,” Premier Legault told reporters.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Trump’s concerns with the U.S.-Canada borders are well founded. Her government may be sending law enforcement to the province’s shared border with Montana to develop a “specialized border patrol.”“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

Border crossings 

In fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 to September 2024), the number of U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) encounters at America’s northern border with Canada was nearly 200,000. Those at the U.S. border with Mexico, meanwhile, were 2.1 million.

There were just over 10 U.S. Border Patrol encounters along the Mexico-U.S. border for every one encounter along the Canada-U.S. border.

Encounters occur when the USBP locates individuals attempting to enter the country, either illegally between border posts or at official crossings without necessary paperwork like visas. It also includes those turned away because of public health rules, such as those put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Between 2022 and 2024, USBP encounters at the U.S.-Canada border nearly doubled, increasing 81 percent. Meanwhile, those at the Mexican border declined by 10 percent.

At both borders, single adults are the vast majority of those attempting to enter the U.S. At the U.S.-Canada border in 2022, single people numbered 92,737 or 84 percent of all USBP encounters. In 2024 they numbered 155,214 or 78 percent.

Families attempting to enter the U.S. unlawfully have increased remarkably.

At the Mexico-U.S. border, between 2022 and 2024, families rose from 23 to 41 percent of USBP encounters. At the Canadian border in 2022, they were just 13 percent of all encounters. This year they rose to 21 percent.

Who’s coming?

What’s also increased is both individuals and families travelling first to Canada, with the ultimate plan of making it across our southern border to the United States.

“When you see that, increasingly, the open border policies of Justin Trudeau [are] leading to people coming to Canada as a staging area to enter into the United States, to such a point that it has caught [the United States’] attention, we need to address those issues,” said Premier Smith this week.

The increase of USBP encounters at the northern U.S. border, compared to those in the U.S. south, gives some weight to this idea that migrants are increasingly using Canada’s less defended border as a first step to illegally enter the U.S.

As U.S.-Mexico border security has become tighter, human smugglers have increasingly advised clients to travel to the U.S. through the U.S.-Canada border, according to CBC reporting. Taxis services to drive migrants to New York City have reportedly boomed in New York State border towns.

In 2023, Indians were the single largest national group for attempts to cross the Canada-U.S. border, numbering 30,000.

From 2022 to 2023, USBC encounters with Venezuelans along our border increased the most relatively, from 201 to 1,375; followed by Peruvians from 148 to 662; and Mexicans from 3,221 to 11,121. Each relative increase was remarkably higher compared to those at the Mexico-U.S. border.

Other Central and South American nationals like Nicaraguans, Colombians, and Brazilians–whose countries are said to be facing a migration crisis–top the list for 2022 to 2023’s increased USBP encounters at the Canada-U.S. border. In 2023, encounters with Mexican, Nicaraguan, and Brazilian nationals at the Mexico-U.S. border actually declined, as those at Canada’s border rose remarkably.

Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, said Canada’s U.S. border presently represents an “extreme national security” vulnerability for his country….

Source: Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , ,

The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Good long read and overview. Excerpt some of the most interesting comments:

…In the rush to find ways of taming Mr. Trump’s sudden fury about the Canadian border, experts are now calling for the revival of obscure and long-dormant bilateral bodies. Former public safety minister Marco Mendicino said one way to “send a very strong signal to the president-elect” is to immediately reconvene a meeting of the Canada-U.S. Cross-Border Crime Forum, which was revived after several years in abeyance last year.

The forum, composed of Canada’s public safety and justice ministers, and the U.S. secretary of homeland security and attorney-general, is a ready-made platform for sharing intelligence and addressing concerns about human and drug smuggling across the border.

“Being pro-active is crucial, because we want to transmit that we are in total alignment when it comes to shoring up the integrity of the border,” Mr. Mendicino said.

If Canadians often thought of their border with the U.S. as a kind of decorative ticker tape, the Trump administration appears to believe the border is more like a fishing net that is full of holes. And some of the numbers do suggest that our shared border is becoming more porous to migrants and drugs, as Mr. Trump alleged in his social media post.

Statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show that roughly twice as many suspected terrorists have tried to cross from Canada into the U.S. as have from Mexico in recent years.

The data are deeply concerning for Americans in the post-9/11 era and should be taken seriously and investigated by Canadian officials, said Michael Barutciski, a York University professor of international affairs.

As recently as September, he pointed out, a Pakistani man living in the Toronto area was arrested near the border in Ormstown, Que., in September on allegations he was plotting an Islamic State-inspired mass shooting on a Jewish centre in New York. The man entered Canada on a student visa last year.

“It doesn’t look good,” said Prof. Barutciski. “It’s a very sensitive issue and they often turn to Canada as sort of a weak point and they’re paranoid about that and we can’t deny that once in a while we do give them reasons to be afraid.”

Former Conservative public safety minister Peter Van Loan thinks the fear of Canadian terror strikes in the U.S. is overblown and that the perception is worth combatting while the issue is front and centre. After all, the data on terrorists reflect those who tried to enter the country and were prevented from doing so.

“It has been a long running misunderstanding among Americans that Canada has been a source of terrorists,” he said. “None of the 9/11 terrorists came from Canada. I continually ran into American politicians who believe they did come in through Canada, and the fact is, they did not. So Canada has a bit of a public relations issue there.”

The border is certainly under growing strain from irregular migrants – although the perception that they are more likely to be criminals has been harshly scrutinized. A recent U.S. study found that undocumented immigrants in Texas, at least, had lower rates of violent crime than U.S.-born citizens….

Source: The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , , , , , ,

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

2024/11/30 Leave a comment

Of note:

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorships from groups of five or more people and community organizations to help clear a backlog of applications.

The notice was published on the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada website today.

The pause is effective immediately and runs until Dec. 31, 2025.

The government says applications received annually far outpace the number of spaces for private refugee sponsorships.

The government has set a target of admitting 23,000 privately sponsored refugees in its 2025-27 immigration plan, while the total refugee target for next year is just over 58,000 people…

Source: Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

Filed under Immigration, Refugees Tagged with ,

← Older posts

Newer posts →