ChatGPT summary of reactions to immigration section of Budget 2025

2025/11/06 Leave a comment

Reasonable summary (still going through the old way as well):

Nice — here’s a compact, source-backed briefing on reactions to the immigration measures in Canada’s 2025 federal budget, organized by the sub-sections you asked for.

Quick framing: the Budget and accompanying 2026–28 Immigration Levels Plan signal sizeable reductions in temporary resident targets (including international students and temporary foreign workers) and cuts to some refugee resettlement streams. Those policy choices are driving the reactions summarized below. (Budget Canada)

Media commentary

  • Overall tone: widespread note of political risk and policy reset — most national outlets frame the changes as a significant scaling back from the high post-pandemic targets and stress both the political logic (housing, service pressure) and economic trade-offs (labour supply). (Global News)
  • Coverage highlights the scale of reductions: reporters emphasize steep drops in international student arrivals (roughly 60% lower in 2025 vs 2024) and large cuts to temporary worker targets. Coverage also flags the government’s claim that arrivals and asylum claims have already fallen this year. (Budget Canada)
  • Some outlets place the budget in an election-cycle context — discussing short-term political calculations vs longer-term economic impact. (Global News)

Business reaction

  • Broad concern from employer and industry groups that lower targets will worsen labour shortages in key sectors (hospitality, restaurants, health care, construction, seasonal work). Many business groups warn the rollbacks send negative signals to investors and could constrain growth. (HCAMag)
  • Sector example: Restaurants Canada called the reductions “incredibly concerning,” pointing to a fall in temporary resident admissions from ~673,650 (2025 baseline) to ~370,000 by 2027 and warned of staffing crises for foodservice. (Restaurants Canada)
  • Some business commentators acknowledge the government’s stated goals (relief on housing and services) but emphasize that tightening labour supply may raise costs and reduce capacity for many SMEs. (HCAMag)

Provincial reactions

  • Mixed responses across provinces: jurisdictions with tight housing/health pressures (and those with political sensitivity on immigration) publicly welcomed the “sustainable” framing, while labour-short provinces and municipalities expressed alarm about workforce impacts. Local leaders in some cities framed the budget as a cautious “sign of confidence” for fiscal matters but cautiously noted labour impacts. (Global News)
  • Provinces that rely heavily on international students and temporary workers (e.g., provinces with big post-secondary or seasonal industries) have highlighted immediate operational concerns for employers, colleges, and municipalities. (Provincial press releases and municipal reaction pieces stress localized impacts.) (Global News)

Education sector

  • Strong, largely negative reaction from universities and college leaders: cuts to international study-permit targets are described as “alarming” and “deep” (reports indicate new international student arrivals were roughly 60% lower in 2025 vs 2024), creating immediate financial and operational stress for institutions and student supports. (University Affairs)
  • Association and sector commentaries note the budget also funds research recruitment (~$1.7B referenced in sector analysis) — so while research investment is welcomed, the near-term loss of fee revenue and campus diversity from fewer international students is a major concern. (University Affairs)

NGOs / civil society

  • Refugee and migrant advocacy groups are highly critical: NGOs (including Migrant Rights Network and the Canadian Council for Refugees) flag sharp cuts to refugee resettlement slots (e.g., big reductions in privately sponsored and government-assisted refugee allocations for 2026) and warn of humanitarian consequences. They also criticise proposed changes that would increase costs/limits on refugee healthcare supports. (Migrant Rights Network)
  • NGOs frame the budget as reversing prior resettlement commitments and argue the cuts are out of step with global resettlement needs; several are calling for immediate policy reversals or mitigations. (Canadian Council for Refugees)

Key numbers & facts (short)

  • Government/ Budget document: says temporary foreign worker arrivals have already fallen ~50% this year and international student arrivals roughly 60% lower so far in 2025; asylum claims down ~1/3. (Government emphasizes “restoring control” / “sustainable levels”.) (Budget Canada)
  • Industry claim (Restaurants Canada): temporary resident admissions projected to fall from ~673,650 in 2025 to ~370,000 by 2027 (sector-level alarm). (Restaurants Canada)
  • NGOs: significant cuts in refugee streams (e.g., privately sponsored refugees from 23,000 in 2025 → 16,000 in 2026; government-assisted refugees reduced to ~13,250 in 2026 in some NGO tallies). (Canadian Council for Refugees)

Overall read / implications

  • Short term: a mix of political kudos for addressing housing/service pressures and immediate pushback from business, post-secondary institutions, and refugee advocates about labour, revenue and humanitarian impacts. (Global News)
  • Medium term risk: continued sectoral labour shortfalls, reduced international-education revenues for campuses and communities, and reputational/humanitarian questions from refugee/NGO communities unless mitigations are introduced. (HCAMag)

Which do you want next?

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Indian students rejected the most for international student permits in Canada

2025/11/06 Leave a comment

Given most of the growth has been from India, the extent of college recruitment in particular and the examples of fraud, not that surprising:

…For the second year in a row, Canada cut the number of international student permits in order to bring down the number of temporary migrants and to deal with fraudulent applications.

As a result, about 74% of Indian students applying to study at Canadian colleges and universities were rejected in August — a big increase compared to about 32% in August 2023, says Reuters, which was provided with immigration department data.

Indian applicants also dropped from 20,900 in August 2023, when they represented just over one-quarter of all applicants, to 4,515 in August.

During the past 10 years, India has been Canada’s top source of international students and in August,  it also had the highest study-permit refusal rate of any country with more than 1,000 approved applicants….

Source: Indian students rejected the most for international student permits in Canada

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Ottawa seeking mass visa cancellation powers to deter fraud from India: internal documents

2025/11/05 Leave a comment

Useful info to better understand the policy rationale:

The federal government is seeking the power to cancel applications for groups of visa holders at least in part due to concerns of fraud from India and Bangladesh, according to internal documents obtained by CBC News.

A departmental presentation to the immigration minister’s office said that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and unnamed U.S. partners are aiming to identify and cancel fraudulent visitor visa applications.

The Canadian entities and U.S. partners formed a working group looking to beef up authorities to refuse and cancel visas, according to the presentation, which singled out India and Bangladesh as “country-specific challenges.”

A section explaining how mass cancellation powers could be used listed hypothetical scenarios such as a pandemic, war and “country-specific visa holders.”

Publicly, Immigration Minister Lena Diab has listed a pandemic or war as why the government is seeking these powers, but has not mentioned country-specific visa holders. 

The presentation provides a further glimpse into Ottawa’s motivation for gaining those mass cancellation powers.

The provision was tabled in Parliament as part of Bill C-2, the government’s sweeping border legislation. That bill has since been spun off into two pieces, with mass visa cancellation folded into C-12, which the government is hoping  to quickly pass.

More than 300 civil society groups have raised concerns over the legislation. Some, such as the Migrant Rights Network, say group cancellations would give the government the ability to set up a “mass deportation machine.” 

Immigration lawyers have also wondered if the mass cancellation ability was being sought to allow the federal government to reduce its growing backlog of applications. 

Asylum claims from Indian nationals increased from fewer than 500 a month in May 2023 to about 2,000 by July 2024, the document said. 

The presentation says that verifying temporary resident visa applications from India slows down application processing.

It said processing time rose from an average of 30 days at the end of July 2023 to 54 a year later. It said approvals also started to decline in 2024 as it committed more resources to verification, from more than 63,000 in January to about 48,000 in June.

The presentation also noted a rise in “no boards” in India — passengers not allowed to board airplanes — as of the summer of 2024. By July 31 of that year 1,873 applicants had been identified for further questioning and sent procedural fairness letters outlining their rights and potential legal recourse.

No data about claims from Bangladesh was provided in the document. 

Last month, IRCC told CBC News in a statement that new powers were not being proposed “with a specific group of people or situation in mind,” and that “decisions would not be taken unilaterally.”

A separate document from October 2024, a memorandum to then immigration minister Marc Miller, urged him to push for the department to be given extra visa cancellation powers without naming any individual countries.

“The ability to cancel temporary resident documents reduces security risks and limits potential misuse of such documents,” it noted.

The memo also said that the risk of applicants seeking judicial review of the cancellations would “depend on the particular facts of each case, notably whether procedural fairness was followed.” …

Source: Ottawa seeking mass visa cancellation powers to deter fraud from India: internal documents

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Universities may jump to hire foreign researchers if Ottawa allocates funds

2025/11/05 Leave a comment

Pre-budget messaging or lobbying?

Canadian universities expect to be able to move quickly to hire researchers from abroad if the federal government announces new money to attract top scientists in the coming budget.

Universities have been waiting to see what direction the federal government will take as other countries have jumped on the potential hiring opportunity created by recent instability in U.S. academic funding.

Two major proposals to enhance Canada’s scientific capacity have been up for government consideration for several months. One was designed by Quebec’s leading research universities. The other was led by former governor-general David Johnston, Eddie Goldenberg, who was chief of staff to Jean Chrétien, and Alan Bernstein, the former president of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. 

Other jurisdictions, starting with France and the European Union, announced plans several months ago to tempt researchers with financial incentives….

Source: Universities may jump to hire foreign researchers if Ottawa allocates funds

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Briefing: The Public Mood Before Budget Day (Abacus, immigration)

2025/11/04 Leave a comment

More from Abacus on immigration where concerns are more about capacity than culture or values:,

4. Immigration: Skepticism steady, focus on capacity

Views on immigration (new Abacus poll) have barely shifted since last year: 49% negative, 26% positive, 26% neutral. The concerns aren’t cultural, they’re about capacity.

Majorities still say immigration worsens housing (69%) and strains healthcare (around 60%), but opposition has softened slightly as the government lowers targets (67% now say “too high,” down from 72%).

Younger Canadians and Liberal supporters are more likely to see the upside — addressing labour gaps, supporting growth — while skepticism remains strongest in the Prairies and among Conservative voters.

The message: Canadians don’t want the gates closed, they want the system to work.

Source: Briefing: The Public Mood Before Budget Day

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Majority of Canadians say immigration level still too high, but confidence growing in Carney fixing ‘broken’ system: Poll

2025/11/04 Leave a comment

Of note:

The Liberal party has restored some Canadians’ confidence in its ability to manage immigration, though a majority still believe the Conservatives are better equipped to fix the beleaguered system, according to a new poll.

A year after implementing some seismic policy changes to reduce immigration intakes, the Liberals are closing the gap with the opposition Conservatives in public perception of their ability to handle a system what many view as “broken,” said the Abacus Data survey, published on the eve of the release of Ottawa’s 2026-28 immigration levels plan on Tuesday.

Overall, 38 per cent of Canadians favoured the Conservatives to stickhandle this issue, compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals. However, the Liberals’ score has risen 13 percentage points on that question in the past year while those expressing confidence in the Conservatives only grew by four percentage points, said the poll for the Toronto Star.

“It does show how much (former prime minister Justin) Trudeau affected people’s perceptions,” said David Coletto, Abacus chair and CEO. “Now that he’s gone and the government has continued to follow through on that more restrictive immigration policy, they’ve kind of returned to more of a normal place.” Liberal Mark Carney became prime minister in March.

Rapid population growth as a result of high immigration dominated political debates over the last two years, and public concerns about lagging housing, health care and other social services have prompted the Liberal government to make drastic cuts in the admissions of both permanent and temporary residents, including foreign students and workers. Immigration applicants are also faced with backlogs and long processing times.

While 49 per cent of Canadians — virtually unchanged from 50 per cent last November — continue to view immigration through a negative lens, attitudes have largely stabilized, said Coletto, with 26 per cent of people expressing positive feelings toward immigration in Canada. 

Sentiment remains most negative among older Canadians and Conservative voters, while younger Canadians and Liberal supporters are more positive about immigration. Despite the lower permanent resident intake from 500,000 in 2024 to 385,000 this year, 67 per cent of people still said the target is too high; that percentage was down modestly from 72 per cent a year ago.

“Heading into a budget that will set a new immigration plan, the government is navigating a delicate balance,” said Coletto. “Canadians continue to see immigration through the lens of scarcity — too few homes, too much strain on public services, and a labour market that feels stretched. The public pressure is clearly on restraint, not expansion.”…

Source: Majority of Canadians say immigration level still too high, but confidence growing in Carney fixing ‘broken’ system: Poll

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Former immigration minister [Miller] rejected officials’ advice to shelve Sudan humanitarian program

2025/11/04 Leave a comment

Of note, classic case of balancing general objectives with the specific:

Immigration officials advised shelving a special humanitarian program, designed to help Sudanese Canadians bring family members here to escape civil war in the African country, over concerns that plans to reduce immigration could be undermined, sources say.

The officials argued that bringing in Sudanese could affect the government’s immigration levels plan: annual targets that the government sets for the number of permanent and temporary residents it plans to admit.

But former immigration minister Marc Miller, two sources say, last year rejected that argument as he thought Canada should help family members of Canadians caught up in what has been described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. He pressed ahead with establishing a pathway to permanent residence for those with direct family ties to Sudanese Canadians, although processing delays have left thousands who applied stranded. Mr. Miller declined to comment. …

Source: Former immigration minister rejected officials’ advice to shelve Sudan humanitarian program

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A New Era of Immigration Enforcement Unfolds in the U.S. Interior and at the Border under Trump 2.0

2025/11/03 Leave a comment

Another good analysis by MPI:

Unauthorized migration at the U.S.-Mexico border plunged dramatically during the just-ended fiscal year, as the Trump administration leveraged new border controls, further asylum restrictions, and the promise of mass deportations, reaching about 444,000 migrant encounters recorded in fiscal year (FY) 2025. This sharp drop from 2.1 million encounters the prior year was also marked by reversion to a pattern last experienced more than a decade ago: Flows primarily composed of Mexican single adults and Central American unaccompanied children.

The steep decrease in unauthorized arrivals at the border and return to nationalities that are easier to turn back because of existing repatriation agreements has permitted the administration to direct its focus to immigration enforcement in the U.S. interior—in fact deploying significant U.S. Border Patrol assets to cities such as Los Angeles and Chicago. To achieve its goal of mass deportations, the administration has increased coordination among federal agencies, elevated cooperation with state and local law enforcement agencies, rapidly accelerated the build-up of detention capacity, expanded the use of fast-track removal powers, tapped the U.S. military, and established new agreements to repatriate returnees to third countries. As a result, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) recorded more deportations from within U.S. communities during FY 2025 than the Border Patrol apprehended people crossing the Southwest border illegally—the first time since at least FY 2014, according to available data.

While detailed FY 2025 data about ICE arrests and removals have not been released since January, there is no doubt that interior enforcement has risen. But it has become increasingly complicated to track results because only selective statistics have been made public. Returning to regular reporting of detailed data on immigration enforcement across the various Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration agencies could not only improve the public’s understanding of current immigration enforcement activities but also inform state and local stakeholders who want to collaborate or who are affected by enforcement.

Ramped-Up Interior Enforcement and Mass Deportations

While U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues to post border encounter statistics every month, DHS has inconsistently released immigration enforcement data  and its last detailed tables of ICE and CBP actions ended with November 2024 activity. Based on the latest publicly available figures, however, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that ICE conducted about 340,000 deportations in FY 2025, including noncitizens with a formal order of removal and immigration detainees who chose to end their detention with a voluntary departure. This would mark a level of activity 25 percent higher than the 271,000 deportations recorded by ICE in FY 2024. These fiscal year figures do not include deportations conducted by CBP, which DHS has yet to release.

The  administration says it conducted more than 400,000 deportations overall between ICE and CBP in its first 250 days, and was on pace to reach nearly 600,000 by the end of its first year. This projection falls short of the 685,000 deportations recorded by the Biden administration in FY 2024—and is well off the Trump administration’s pledge of carrying out 1 million deportations per year.

Location Matters

Where the deportations are happening is significantly different under the Trump administration, with more occurring within the U.S. interior rather than at the border. This has significant operational impacts, given deportations in the interior are likely to be far more resource intensive and carry higher individual and societal costs with enforcement happening in U.S. cities and against people who, unlike many recent border crossers, often have significant years of U.S. residence and deep community ties.

Of the 400,000 deportations conducted by the Trump administration through its first 250 days, MPI estimates approximately 234,000 were conducted by ICE from the U.S. interior, with another 166,000 by CBP.

ICE daily deportations, in fact, doubled from 600 in January to 1,200 since June. ICE deportations have increased as the number of immigrants being placed in detention centers has surged. Since the start of the Trump administration, the average number of noncitizens in ICE detention centers has grown gradually, reaching about 60,000 by the end of FY 2025 (see Figure 1). And by March, most detainees had been arrested by ICE in the interior, not by CBP at the border or through CBP transfer to ICE, as was usually the case under the Biden administration….

Source: A New Era of Immigration Enforcement Unfolds in the U.S. Interior and at the Border under Trump 2.0

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Canada’s education sector has a new idea to lure international students back. Here’s what it is

2025/11/03 Leave a comment

Doesn’t appear to be a new idea:

…Niagara College president Sean Kennedy said Canada has remained a safe and welcoming country known for its progressive values, cultural diversity and quality education. 

“The messaging to the world through this campaign will be, ‘Come and grow your future as a global citizen,’” said Kennedy, whose school saw international applications drop by half and lost 40 per cent of international enrolment in the past year.

For graduates, that could mean returning home after an amazing education and international experience or staying and working for those who fall in love with Canada, he said.

“Both paths are really laudable, commendable and worth considering,” Kennedy noted. “It’s a bit more of a balanced approach. What we’re offering here is a chance to grow your skills and knowledge and expertise, but also to grow as a person.”

Source: Canada’s education sector has a new idea to lure international students back. Here’s what it is

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Ottawa’s immigration cuts have eased pressure on housing and labour markets: TD Economic report

2025/11/01 Leave a comment

Supply and demand in action:

Ottawa hitting the brakes on population growth by drastically cutting incoming immigration has eased the pressure on social and economic infrastructure, according to a newly released report from TD Economics.

Last year, notes TD, government policymakers acknowledged that the influx of immigration was too high relative the ability of Canada’s social and economic infrastructure to cope. Unemployment rose more than a full percentage point between 2022-2024, while businesses struggled to keep up with a rapidly expanding supply of workers. Meanwhile, housing affordability was being stretched to its limits.

“In response, the government introduced an immigration plan to right-size non-permanent residents (NPRs) and permanent resident (PR) targets to allow for some ‘catch up’ in the needed infrastructure,” writes Beata Caranci, senior vice president and chief economist, and Marc Ercolao, economist.

“That policy shift is evident by a massive tapering in Canada’s population growth from a multi-decade high of 3.2% in Q2-2024 to just 0.9%.”

Now, the TD economists says, the question is whether the policy shift will achieve the intended outcomes for housing and the labour markets.

“The short answer is yes.”

How has Ottawa’s policy change affected the housing market?

Reducing the number of immigrants can relieve housing market pressures a few ways, they write.

In the rental market, drastically slower immigration bears out TD’s softer rent growth forecast of 3-3.5 per cent in 2026, which is roughly half the growth rate of 2024.

Lowering the cap on newcomers has also lowered condo demand for both homeownership and the secondary rental market. It has also caused downward pressure in asking rents across major cities, write Caranci and Ercolao.

The largest shifts were observed in B.C. and Ontario due to a higher proportion of temporary foreign workers and students. Those markets also have the highest supply of condo units where the secondary market was previously attractive to investors.

“Calculating the impact of immigration flows on home prices is a more nuanced exercise. For one, NPRs have limited participation in the ownership market. And when they do, NPRs usually opt for condominium units. So a reduction in NPR inflows carries the greatest weight on this segment of the market.”

Aside from NPRs, write the TD economists, the data shows that recent immigrants are slightly more active in homeownership during their initial years in Canada, with a preference for detached homes. By their fifth and sixth year, they note, immigrant ownership rates tend to converge toward 50/50 toward renting….

Source: Ottawa’s immigration cuts have eased pressure on housing and labour markets: TD Economic report

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