Trump’s halting of asylum claims prompts fresh calls to suspend Safe Third Country Agreement

No surprise. Reactions below:

…But some experts have warned that suspending the agreement could open the door to an unknown number of asylum claimants who are currently ineligible for protection in Canada, at a time when the federal government is striving to reduce immigration because of pressure on housing.

Fen Hampson, president of the World Refugee & Migration Council and a professor of international affairs at Carleton University, said Mr. Trump’s decision “puts our government on the horns of a real dilemma.”

“The U.S is no longer providing equivalent protection and Canada faces a significant moral and potentially legal obligation to offer asylum to those who cannot get protection in the U.S.,” he said.

“The Canadian government must now decide whether it wishes to exercise its authority to suspend the agreement, create a broader exemption or stick with the status quo,” he said in an e-mail. “With tens of thousands of asylum claims still pending in Canada and fears that suspending the [agreement] could lead to increased irregular border crossing, the government may prefer to do nothing.” …

The Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers and the South Asian Legal Clinic of Ontario have launched a judicial review of the Safe Third Country Agreement, seeking to declare it invalid. Maureen Silcoff, a lawyer who is representing plaintiffs in that case with lawyer Sujit Choudhry, said the agreement requires countries to follow the UN Refugee Convention, but the U.S. has chosen to stop adjudicating asylum claims. 

“The agreement itself anticipated that a situation may arise that requires a suspension,” Ms. Silcoff said.

“That day has arrived. The basis for the agreement has evaporated. It was predicated on the U.S. having a functional asylum system. The U.S. suspension of asylum determination means that the very foundation of the agreement has disappeared.”…

Lawyer James Yousif, who was policy director to former immigration minister Jason Kenney, said the U.S. government’s decision to halt all refugee claims would likely lead the Federal Court to strike down the Safe Third Country Agreement, which requires what he describes as a “functioning” asylum system.

“The extent of a President’s ability to halt asylum without legislation is unclear. But if asylum is halted and deportations begin, the consequences for Canada will be immediate,” he wrote in an e-mail.

If the pact is struck down, Mr. Yousif said, that would allow millions of people currently in the U.S. who are covered by the Safe Third Country Agreement to apply for asylum here.

“That would represent an existential threat to Canada’s immigration system,” he said.

Sharry Aiken, a professor at Queen’s University specializing in immigration and refugee law, said Mr. Trump’s latest edict on halting asylum claims is “the nail in the coffin” of the Safe Third Country Agreement.

She said other anti-migrant policies he has enacted should have already prompted the Canadian government to revisit whether it is still valid.

“If we had any doubts before, we shouldn’t now,” she said. “The agreement is predicated on responsibility sharing and that people have access to asylum in the U.S.”

Prof. Aiken predicted suspending the agreement is not going to lead to Mr. Trump being “upset with Canada” or a big influx of asylum seekers coming from the U.S.

“If necessary, we need to ensure that the IRB [Immigration and Refugee Board] is adequately resourced to deal with a potential increase in the number of claims,” she said.

Source: Trump’s halting of asylum claims prompts fresh calls to suspend Safe Third Country Agreement

Chris Selley: Upset about the state of Canada? Why not pretend it’s better? [non-deportation of immigrants accused of sexual abuse]

Agree, risk of losing immigration status should not be a “get out of jail” card except in extremely rare circumstances:

Again in theory, that should include a 47-year-old non-citizen, living in Bradford, Ont., who recently pleaded guilty to various charges with respect to sexually abusing a young girl — including once when he was on bail for charges of sexually abusing the same girl, whom he reportedly impregnated twice when she was no older than 13. News outlet BarrieToday reports the accused was at one point during his trial “permitted an adjournment to explore the effect his eventual guilty pleas would have on his immigration status.”

Which is, obviously, insane.

Because this is Canada, however, and we can’t ever let anything be simple, the 47-year-old’s immigration status has become something of a controversy in Ottawa.

I don’t have empirical data before me, but I suspect deportation would not strike most Canadians as an intemperate or unjust punishment for Mr. 47-year-old Child-Impregnator from Bradford. It’s neither lenient nor draconian; it’s just common sense. It’s pretty hard to get a six-month sentence in this country, after all. The absolutely vast majority of Canadians, regardless of where they’re born, manage to avoid imprisonment for their entire lives, and they hardly even have to break a sweat avoiding it. I think that’s a reasonable expectation of immigrants as well.

Alas, some of us don’t like this rule, or at least we feel honour-bound not to like it. It’s just so terribly unfancy, if not downright American-style. Judges and Liberals seem to suffer from this disproportionately. So what judges have been doing, in certain cases, is discounting the sentences non-permanent residents are handed, rather than bringing those immigration consequences down upon an offender’s and his family’s heads.

This has been widely reported. It’s not some kind of conspiracy theory. But some of us seem to have great trouble admitting it (perhaps because it’s so obviously inappropriate). In August, Radio-Canada ran an article headlined “Conservatives say the justice system favours non-citizens. Experts disagree.” Only Radio-Canada’s experts didn’t actually disagree; they mostly just seemed to object to the notion that one sentence might be compared to another to begin with, as opposed to each being considered a standalone, perfectly honed diamond of wisdom.

When (a judge) is considering a sentence, they can’t be blind to the fact that this person is not a naturalized Canadian, is still an immigrant and therefore will have additional consequences as a result of the sentence,” a Toronto immigration lawyer told Radio-Canada — which was, of course, the whole question, and it’s not a rhetorical one. Can judges be blind to that? Should they?

The Conservatives, led by immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner, want to make a law that says no: Judges wouldn’t be allowed to consider immigration consequences in handing down sentences, such as against that creep from Bradford, Ont. In the unlikely event I were advising the Liberals, I would suggest agreeing to support that law as quickly and enthusiastically as possible….

Source: Chris Selley: Upset about the state of Canada? Why not pretend it’s better?

Meggs – Immigration : Les vies brisées par un système brisé

Good insights into Quebec’s cancellation of PEQ (equivalent to TR2PR) and the similar impact of changes to those who were applying given their expectations as at the federal level:

Les personnes ayant un statut temporaire au Québec ont-elles le droit de prétendre qu’on leur a fait croire qu’elles pouvaient obtenir la résidence permanente? Oui, absolument.

Avons-nous toujours besoin du Programme d’expérience québécoise (PEQ) pour atteindre l’objectif de transition du statut temporaire au statut permanent? Non.

Avons-nous une obligation morale d’accorder un statut permanent aux personnes à statut temporaire déjà établies au Québec? Peut-être, jusqu’à un certain point, mais… Bonne chance!

Ce sont toutes des questions légitimes découlant de la réaction très négative récente à l’annulation de ce programme. Le PEQ a été lancé en 2010, et il est possible que, au fil des changements de gouvernements, de ministres et de fonctionnaires, son contexte historique ait été oublié. Tentons d’éclaircir la situation.

L’histoire du PEQ comme voie rapide de traitement d’une demande d’immigration

Demande d’immigration permanente — faite avant ou après l’arrivée?

Pendant les 25 dernières années du 20e siècle, la règle générale au Canada était qu’une personne qui désirait immigrer de façon permanente fasse sa demande avant son arrivée au Québec. Les demandes faites sur place n’étaient acceptées que dans des circonstances exceptionnelles. Cela est même stipulé dans l’Accord Canada-Québec sur l’immigration signé en 1991.

Les dossiers étaient traités et la sélection était effectuée selon une grille de points attribués en fonction des caractéristiques recherchées pour les besoins du Québec et de l’intégration rapide de la personne qui arrive. Ces critères comprennent notamment l’âge, les compétences linguistiques, le niveau d’éducation, l’expérience professionnelle, le domaine d’études, un emploi prévu dans le pays et un lien antérieur avec le Québec.

Si le dossier recueillait le seuil minimum de points, un certificat de sélection du Québec (CSQ) était délivré, ce qui garantissait, même aujourd’hui, le statut de résidence permanente du gouvernement canadien. Seules des raisons de sécurité ou de santé publique pouvaient empêcher l’obtention du statut permanent.

Les personnes arrivaient donc avec leur résidence permanente. Fin du parcours d’immigration. Porte ouverte à une demande de citoyenneté après trois ans. Une immigration permanente en une étape.

Au début du siècle, le Canada et ensuite le Québec ont changé de politique en décidant d’accepter des demandes des personnes déjà au pays. C’est à partir de ce moment que l’immigration en deux étapes est devenue de plus en plus courante.

Problème de délai de traitement

Un autre facteur important de cette histoire est le temps de traitement des demandes d’immigration. En effet, ces dernières se faisaient encore sur papier et le calcul du nombre de points se faisait manuellement. De plus, la loi exigeait que toutes les demandes reçues soient traitées par ordre chronologique. Énormément de temps était perdu à analyser des demandes, qui se voyaient refusées parce que le dossier ne comptait pas le seuil minimal de points. C’était le cas pour près de la moitié des demandes traitées.

Le délai de traitement des demandes en 2011 variait entre 8 et 44 mois [1]. En 2016-2017, l’année avant la mise en œuvre d’Arrima, le système informatisé de traitement, le délai moyen de traitement d’une demande d’immigration permanente était de 32 mois. Les demandes des personnes déjà au Québec s’ajoutaient à la pile.

Trois solutions au problème de productivité

Trois « solutions » s’offraient pour résoudre ce défi de productivité :

  1. L’informatisation : La première, évidemment, était l’informatisation du système de traitement. On y reviendra.
  2. Le PEQ : La deuxième était le PEQ. Ce programme était conçu comme une voie rapide de traitement uniquement pour les demandes présentées par des personnes à statut temporaire déjà au Québec. Il y avait un volet pour des détenteurs d’un diplôme postsecondaire obtenu au Québec et un deuxième pour des personnes qui occupaient le même emploi au Québec depuis au moins deux ans. Mais pas n’importe quel emploi. Il fallait que celui-ci exige l’équivalent d’au moins un diplôme collégial, voire universitaire. Auquel s’ajoutaient les exigences linguistiques. Compte tenu de ces conditions d’admissibilité, ces demandes ne passaient pas par la grille de sélection et pouvaient donc être approuvées beaucoup plus rapidement. Le ministère s’engageait à rendre une décision en 20 jours.
  3. L’immigration temporaire : La troisième solution, qui existait déjà, consistait à contourner les délais de traitement d’une demande d’immigration permanente en recrutant des personnes avec un permis temporaire d’études ou de travail. À l’époque, cette procédure était plus rapide que celle pour les demandes d’immigration permanente. De plus, il y avait plusieurs avantages à court terme à accroître le nombre d’étudiantes et étudiants étrangers, ainsi que le recours à une main-d’œuvre souvent à bas salaire, autorisée par le Programme des travailleurs étrangers temporaires (PTET).

Le PTET est particulièrement utile en matière de régionalisation. Les personnes recrutées par ce biais sont liées à leur employeur. Le gouvernement utilise même ce programme pour recruter du personnel de la santé, y compris des médecins et des infirmières, justement pour cette raison.

Ils pourraient facilement être recrutés via le programme d’immigration permanente, ce qui leur garantirait la résidence permanente à leur arrivée, mais pour les lier à un établissement situé en région, le PTET est plus sûr, même si cela les laisse dans la précarité pendant quelques années.

Mais attention! Contrairement à l’immigration permanente, il n’y avait pas de planification du nombre de personnes à recruter par l’immigration temporaire. Alors que le nombre de personnes obtenant la résidence permanente est resté relativement stable au Québec, grâce aux limites imposées chaque année dans les plans annuels, aucun plafond n’a été fixé pour le nombre de personnes arrivant avec un statut temporaire. Par conséquent, le nombre de permis temporaires délivrés a explosé, notamment dans les deux programmes contrôlés par le gouvernement du Québec.

La promesse implicite de la résidence permanente

Beaucoup de personnes à statut temporaire qui réclament le maintien du PEQ affirment qu’on leur avait promis la résidence permanente, particulièrement par le PEQ. Est-ce vrai?

Il est logique qu’elles aient eu cette impression. Dès son lancement, ce programme a bénéficié d’une promotion active auprès des étudiantes et étudiants étrangers, que ce soit lors des sessions de recrutement à l’étranger ou lors des séances d’information organisées dans des établissements d’enseignement supérieur.

Des dépliants ont été distribués à ces jeunes par l’équipe du ministère à leur arrivée à l’aéroport, tandis que des lettres leur ont été envoyées après l’obtention de leur diplôme. Des ententes lucratives ont été signées avec Montréal International pour en faire la promotion auprès des travailleurs étrangers spécialisés. Il y avait même, pendant quelque temps, une mention du programme dans la lettre accompagnant la délivrance d’un Certificat d’acceptation du Québec (CAQ), document requis pour obtenir un permis d’études ou de travail dans le cadre du PTET.

L’appât de la résidence permanente a toujours bien servi les agences de recrutement, les établissements d’enseignement postsecondaires et les employeurs dans le recrutement de l’immigration temporaire. D’autres mesures concrètes renforçaient le même message. Certains titulaires de permis avaient désormais le droit de faire venir toute leur famille, les permis de travail étaient délivrés aux conjoints ou aux conjointes, des permis étaient souvent renouvelables à répétition. Tout laissait croire que « temporaire » voulait dire « jusqu’à la résidence permanente », plutôt que « jusqu’à l’expiration du permis ».

Cette carotte se révélait efficace, mais malhonnête, pour deux raisons. D’abord, la majorité des personnes à statut temporaire ne rempliront pas les conditions des programmes d’immigration permanente, que ce soit le PEQ ou le défunt Programme régulier de travailleurs qualifiés (PRTQ) ou le nouveau Programme de sélection des travailleurs qualifiés (PSTQ). Deuxièmement, comme on le verra plus loin, les volumes annuels établis pour l’immigration permanente ne pourront jamais accueillir sur le territoire toutes les personnes à statut temporaire.

Le PEQ comme « voie rapide »

En 2019-2020, le délai moyen de traitement d’une demande d’immigration permanente régulière était de 127 jours, ce qui représente une nette amélioration par rapport aux 32 mois qui étaient la norme trois ans plus tôt.

Comment est-ce possible? Grâce à l’implantation du système de gestion informatisé Arrima au cours de l’été 2018. Avec ce système, les personnes sur place ou à l’étranger qui sont intéressées à immigrer, à obtenir un CSQ, remplissent un formulaire en ligne dans la plateforme Arrima fournissant presque toute l’information qui anciennement était fournie sur papier, créant ainsi un bassin de candidatures possibles.

Ensuite, un algorithme permet au ministère de repérer des profils correspondant aux critères souhaités, puis à inviter ces individus à soumettre une demande d’immigration en bonne et due forme. Le ministère peut aussi gérer le nombre d’invitations tout au long de l’année. Un système similaire, appelé Entrée Express, avait été mis en place par le fédéral en 2015 pour les demandes d’immigration au reste du Canada.

Dès l’implantation du système, le besoin d’une « voie rapide » comme le PEQ n’était plus vraiment nécessaire. En 2024-2025, on constate même que le délai moyen de traitement d’une demande dans le PEQ (127,2 jours) était devenu plus long que pour le PRTQ (82,2 jours). Pourquoi? Sûrement parce que, tout comme dans l’ancien système, toutes les demandes reçues dans le PEQ étaient traitées, et ce, dans l’ordre chronologique. Le taux de refus des demandes d’immigration permanente avait également chuté en 2019, pour atteindre moins de 1 %.

En ce qui concerne les permis de travail PTET, le délai de traitement semble avoir disparu comme enjeu pour les employeurs. Ils ont même pris goût au programme. Aujourd’hui, ils sont prêts à payer plus cher et à vivre avec des mois de bureaucratie afin d’embaucher des effectifs de l’étranger, captifs et obligés d’accepter des conditions de travail inacceptables à la main-d’œuvre locale.

Le système Arrima peut donc inviter des personnes qui séjournent au Québec, c’est-à-dire des personnes à statut temporaire. En fait, depuis le lancement en juillet du nouveau programme, le PSTQ, 1 038 invitations ont été envoyées à des personnes ayant déclaré leur intérêt d’immigrer sur la plateforme Arrima. Parmi ce nombre, 991 résidaient au Québec (95,5 %), incluant 273 hors de la Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal. Il peut aussi privilégier facilement des jeunes d’ailleurs diplômés au Québec.

On peut en conclure que la majorité des personnes qui auraient pu bénéficier du PEQ présentent les caractéristiques nécessaires pour recevoir une invitation dans le cadre du PSTQ. Même certaines personnes à statut temporaire actuellement, qui n’étaient pas admissibles au PEQ, le seront au nouveau programme, c’est-à-dire celles qui occupent un emploi moins bien rémunéré exigeant un niveau de scolarité un peu plus bas.

La plus grande déception pour les personnes qui comptaient sur le PEQ est de ne plus pouvoir compter sur le fait que leur demande d’immigration sera traitée, car elles ne savent pas si elles seront invitées par le système Arrima.

Leur avenir au Québec, déjà fragile en raison de la date d’expiration de leur séjour, est maintenant encore plus incertain. Cet enjeu est moins grave pour les personnes toujours à l’étranger, puisqu’elles ne feront pas des démarches de déménagement et de déracinement avant d’avoir reçu leur CSQ.

Une clause de droit acquis ou au moins une obligation morale

Après avoir accordé des permis temporaires à des individus en les attirant avec la carotte de la résidence permanente, en leur fournissant des services d’intégration et de francisation, en leur assurant souvent un emploi, en leur facilitant l’arrivée et l’établissement de toute leur famille chez nous, avons-nous une obligation morale de leur délivrer le billet doré que représente le CSQ?

C’est la revendication générale qu’on entend et c’est une des propositions de la pétition lancée par Québec solidaire sur le site de l’Assemblée nationale. [2]

Il n’est pas surprenant qu’il y en ait plusieurs qui répondent spontanément, « oui! ». Cela reflète l’ouverture connue du peuple québécois.

Mais examinons le contexte créé par la gestion de l’immigration au cours des dix dernières années, ainsi que le virage vers l’immigration temporaire.

Au 31 décembre 2024, les données du ministère révèlent qu’il y avait 200 495 titulaires de permis dans les deux programmes contrôlés par le Québec, et 299 685 avec un permis de travail dans le programme où le Québec n’intervient pas. Ça veut dire 500 180 en tout. Il y a fort à parier qu’il y a plus de 200 000 personnes sur le territoire québécois dont le permis temporaire a expiré, si on se fie aux estimations canadiennes de la CIBC. Ces personnes remplissaient des conditions pour un permis temporaire, mais aucune n’a été sélectionnée selon les critères appliqués pour l’obtention d’un CSQ.

En outre, le plan annuel d’immigration pour 2026 prévoit un plafond de 35 600 CSQ pour la sous-catégorie des travailleurs qualifiés (PSTQ) et un maximum de 29 500 personnes admises avec un statut de résident permanent dans la même catégorie.

L’explosion non planifiée et non sélectionnée de l’immigration temporaire fait en sorte qu’on se trouve face à des centaines de milliers de personnes, devenues nos voisins et voisines, qui ont cru au rêve de s’établir durablement au Québec, mais qui ne seront toutefois jamais sélectionnées pour y rester. Pourquoi? Soit parce qu’elles ne satisfont pas aux critères établis pour l’immigration permanente, basés sur l’analyse des besoins socio-économiques et linguistiques du Québec. Soit parce que, par un drôle de raisonnement, elles sont trop nombreuses pour notre « capacité d’accueil », alors que plusieurs contribuent à l’économie et au développement de la société québécoise depuis quelques années.

Une planification qui ne répond pas au plus grand enjeu

La réaction à la décision de mettre fin au PEQ montre bien l’ampleur de la rupture dans notre système d’immigration causée par le virage non réfléchi vers l’immigration temporaire et les conséquences sur les vies des personnes, maintenant parmi nous, les plus concernées.

Rappelons-nous qu’on n’est pas en Europe. Notre frontière terrestre est avec un pays qui, malgré tout ce qui se passe sous Trump, demeure un aimant pour les gens du monde entier. Autrement, l’entrée se fait par avion, ce qui exige un document d’entrée. Les personnes venues du reste du monde au Québec sont arrivées légalement. Ce sont les gouvernements fédéral et québécois qui ont créé et facilité la situation dans laquelle nous nous trouvons aujourd’hui. Le PEQ n’en est qu’un exemple.

Malheureusement, les orientations pluriannuelles en matière d’immigration pour les quatre prochaines années, déposées par le ministre Roberge, le 6 novembre dernier, ne contiennent aucune proposition sérieuse pour résoudre ce problème. Elles incluent une baisse minimale sur quatre ans du nombre de personnes détenant un permis de travail PTET ou d’études, et le gouvernement adopte un discours contradictoire face au fédéral, qui propose quant à lui des coupures plus rapides dans le nombre de nouveaux permis de travail.

Il reste l’épineuse question des personnes à statut temporaire qui n’auront pas droit au renouvellement de leur permis et qui ne seront pas approuvées pour la résidence permanente. L’élan spontané de solidarité envers les personnes qui comptaient sur le PEQ démontre aussi que les Québécoises et Québécois n’appuieront pas facilement des départs forcés. Même aux États-Unis, les méthodes agressives de Trump ont fait considérablement augmenter le sentiment positif à l’égard de l’immigration.[3]

2026 est une année électorale. Ce contexte ne sera pas propice à une réflexion commune et sereine sur les mesures à prendre pour résoudre cette impasse. Cela pourrait être une année marquée par l’inquiétude et les perturbations pour de nombreuses personnes qui souhaitent simplement poursuivre leur vie avec leurs nouveaux amis et amies québécois. Essayons de faire notre part, même à notre niveau personnel, pour les aider dans leur parcours. Il est crucial de trouver des solutions pour éviter d’accroître le nombre de personnes non documentées. C’est le pire résultat, tant pour la société d’accueil que pour les individus concernés et leurs enfants.

Source: Immigration : Les vies brisées par un système brisé

Do people with temporary status in Quebec have the right to claim that they were made to believe that they could obtain permanent residence? Yes, absolutely.
Do we still need the Quebec Experience Program (QEP) to achieve the goal of transitioning from temporary to permanent status? No.
Do we have a moral obligation to grant permanent status to people with temporary status already established in Quebec? Maybe, up to a certain point, but… Good luck!
These are all legitimate questions arising from the recent very negative reaction to the cancellation of this program. The EQP was launched in 2010, and it is possible that, as the changes of governments, ministers and officials, its historical context has been forgotten. Let’s try to clarify the situation.
The history of the EQP as a quick route to process an immigration application
Application for permanent immigration – made before or after arrival?
During the last 25 years of the 20th century, the general rule in Canada was that a person who wished to immigrate permanently should apply before arriving in Quebec. On-site applications were only accepted in exceptional circumstances. This is even stipulated in the Canada-Quebec Immigration Agreement signed in 1991.
The files were processed and the selection was made according to a grid of points awarded according to the characteristics sought for the needs of Quebec and the rapid integration of the person who arrives. These criteria include age, language skills, level of education, professional experience, field of study, planned employment in the country and a previous link with Quebec.
If the file collected the minimum threshold of points, a Quebec Selection Certificate (CSQ) was issued, which guaranteed, even today, the permanent residence status of the Canadian government. Only safety or public health reasons could prevent permanent status from being obtained.
People therefore arrived with their permanent residence. End of the immigration journey. Door open to an application for citizenship after three years. Permanent immigration in one step.
At the beginning of the century, Canada and then Quebec changed their policy by deciding to accept applications from people already in the country. It was from this moment that two-stage immigration became more and more common.
Processing time issue
Another important factor in this story is the processing time for immigration applications. Indeed, the latter were still done on paper and the calculation of the number of points was done manually. In addition, the law required that all applications received be processed in chronological order. A lot of time was lost analyzing applications, which were refused because the file did not have the minimum points threshold. This was the case for almost half of the applications processed.
The processing time for applications in 2011 varied between 8 and 44 months [1]. In 2016-2017, the year before the implementation of Arrima, the computerized processing system, the average processing time for a permanent immigration application was 32 months. The requests of people already in Quebec were added to the pile.
Three solutions to the productivity problem
Three “solutions” were available to solve this productivity challenge:
Computerization: The first, of course, was the computerization of the processing system. We’ll come back.
The EQP: The second was the PEQ. This program was designed as a quick route of processing only for applications submitted by people with temporary status already in Quebec. There was a component for holders of a post-secondary diploma obtained in Quebec and a second for people who had held the same job in Quebec for at least two years. But not just any job. It had to require the equivalent of at least a college degree, or even a university degree. To which were added the linguistic requirements. Given these eligibility requirements, these applications did not pass through the selection grid and could therefore be approved much faster. The ministry committed to making a decision within 20 days.
Temporary immigration: The third solution, which already existed, was to circumvent the processing times of a permanent immigration application by recruiting people with a temporary study or work permit. At the time, this procedure was faster than that for permanent immigration applications. In addition, there were several short-term benefits to increasing the number of international students, as well as the use of an often low-pay workforce, authorized by the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TETP).
The PTET is particularly useful in terms of regionalization. People recruited through this channel are linked to their employer. The government is even using this program to recruit health personnel, including doctors and nurses, for this very reason.
They could easily be recruited through the permanent immigration program, which would guarantee them permanent residence upon arrival, but to link them to an establishment located in the region, the PTET is safer, even if it leaves them precarious for a few years.
But be careful! Unlike permanent immigration, there was no planning of the number of people to be recruited by temporary immigration. While the number of people obtaining permanent residence remained relatively stable in Quebec, thanks to the limits imposed each year in the annual plans, no ceiling was set for the number of people arriving with temporary status. As a result, the number of temporary permits issued has exploded, especially in the two programs controlled by the Government of Quebec.
The implicit promise of permanent residence
Many people with temporary status who claim to maintain the PEQ say that they were promised permanent residence, particularly by the PEQ. Is it true?
It is logical that they had this impression. Since its launch, this program has benefited from an active promotion to foreign students, whether during recruitment sessions abroad or during information sessions organized in higher education institutions.
Leaflets were distributed to these young people by the ministry’s team upon their arrival at the airport, while letters were sent to them after they graduated. Gainful agreements have been signed with Montréal International to promote it to specialized foreign workers. There was even, for some time, a mention of the program in the letter accompanying the issuance of a Quebec Certificate of Acceptance (CAQ), a document required to obtain a study or work permit under the PTET.
The permanent residence bait has always served well for recruitment agencies, post-secondary education institutions and employers in the recruitment of temporary immigration. Other concrete measures reinforced the same message. Some permit holders now had the right to bring their entire family, work permits were issued to spouses, permits were often renewable repeatedly. Everything suggested that “temporary” meant “until permanent residence”, rather than “until the expiration of the permit”.
This carrot proved to be effective, but dishonest, for two reasons. First, the majority of people with temporary status will not meet the requirements of the permanent immigration programs, whether it is the EQP or the defunct Regular Skilled Worker Program (PRTQ) or the new Skilled Worker Selection Program (PSTQ). Secondly, as will be seen later, the annual volumes established for permanent immigration will never be able to accommodate all people with temporary status on the territory.
The PEQ as a “fast track”
In 2019-2020, the average processing time for a regular permanent immigration application was 127 days, which represents a significant improvement over the 32 months that were the norm three years earlier.
How is this possible? Thanks to the implementation of the Arrima computerized management system during the summer of 2018. With this system, people on site or abroad who are interested in immigrating, in obtaining a CSQ, fill out an online form in the Arrima platform providing almost all the information that was previously provided on paper, thus creating a pool of possible applications.
Then, an algorithm allows the ministry to identify profiles corresponding to the desired criteria, then to invite these individuals to submit a formal immigration application. The department can also manage the number of invitations throughout the year. A similar system, called Express Entry, was put in place by the federal government in 2015 for immigration applications to the rest of Canada.
From the implementation of the system, the need for a “fast track” like the PEQ was no longer really necessary. In 2024-2025, we even see that the average processing time for an application in the PEQ (127.2 days) had become longer than for the PRTQ (82.2 days). Why? Probably because, just like in the old system, all applications received in the PEQ were processed, in chronological order. The refusal rate of permanent immigration applications had also fallen in…

Oshiogbele: Dependants? Why Canada should recognize migrant spouses and partners with more accuracy

Hard to see this as a substantive issue compared to the many more pressing issues:

…This issue is not simply about accuracy in terminology, although that is essential. It is also about inadvertently classifying others unfairly, promoting gender inequality and marginalizing some migrant family members.

Most accompanying spouses and partners are women and labelling them uniformly as dependants even when they include co-providers and primary earners, reinforces outdated stereotypes. 

Migrant male spouses and partners also face their own identity struggles, despite their qualifications. 

Statistics Canada data reveals persistent gender differences in labour market outcomes among newcomers, with immigrant women having a labour force participation rate of 78.2 per cent in 2021, significantly lower than the 90.2 per cent for immigrant men. While this arguably reflects global gender norms that many migrant families bring with them, it could also be linked with their sense of identity.

Canada prides itself on being a leader in immigration policy and in creating an inclusive society. Therefore, while other long-established immigration systems across the globe may continue to use this term this way, IRCC could consider clarifying it. Currently, the dependant label may unintentionally reinforce perceptions of dependency that do not reflect the evolving realities of modern migrant families…

Goodnews I. Oshiogbele is a member of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) and the Canadian Population Society (CPS).

Source: Dependants? Why Canada should recognize migrant spouses and partners with more accuracy

The Age of Depopulation

Policy makers have yet to confront the prospect and the related reality that immigration can only partially delay the inevitable:

…Prosperity in a depopulating world will also depend on open economies: free trade in goods, services, and finance to counter the constraints that declining populations otherwise engender. And as the hunger for scarce talent becomes more acute, the movement of people will take on new economic salience. In the shadow of depopulation, immigration will matter even more than it does today.

Not all aged societies, however, will be capable of assimilating young immigrants or turning them into loyal and productive citizens. And not all migrants will be capable of contributing effectively to receiving economies, especially given the stark lack of basic skills characterizing too many of the world’s rapidly growing populations today.

Pragmatic migration strategies will be of benefit to depopulating societies in the generations ahead—bolstering their labor forces, tax bases, and consumer spending while also rewarding the immigrants’ countries of origin with lucrative remittances. With populations shrinking, governments will have to compete for migrants, with an even greater premium placed on attracting talent from abroad. Getting competitive migration policies right—and securing public support for them—will be a major task for future governments but one well worth the effort….

A NEW CHAPTER

The era of depopulation is nigh. Dramatic aging and the indefinite decline of the human population—eventually on a global scale—will mark the end of an extraordinary chapter of human history and the beginning of another, quite possibly no less extraordinary than the one before it. Depopulation will transform humanity profoundly, likely in numerous ways societies have not begun to consider and may not yet be in a position to understand.

Yet for all the momentous changes ahead, people can also expect important and perhaps reassuring continuities. Humanity has already found the formula for banishing material scarcity and engineering ever-greater prosperity. That formula can work regardless of whether populations rise or fall. Routinized material advance has been made possible by a system of peaceful human cooperation—deep, vast, and unfathomably complex—and that largely market-based system will continue to unfold from the current era into the next. Human volition—the driver behind today’s worldwide declines in childbearing—stands to be no less powerful a force tomorrow than it is today.

Humanity bestrides the planet, explores the cosmos, and continues to reshape itself because humans are the world’s most inventive, adaptable animal. But it will take more than a bit of inventiveness and adaptability to cope with the unintended future consequences of the family and fertility choices being made today.

NICHOLAS EBERSTADT is Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and Senior Adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research. Eberstadt has served as a consultant to the World Bank and to the U.S. government, including at the State Department, the Agency for International Development, and the President’s Council on Bioethics. His books include Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis and Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications.

Source: The Age of Depopulation

Canadian Immigration Tracker: Third quarter 2025 update

Regular quarterly update across immigration programs: Permanent Residents, Temporary Residents (workers, students and visas, asylum seekers) and Citizenship. Trend across all programs shows year-over-year and two-year decline.

Here’s how much the cuts to Canada’s international students have hurt Ontario colleges and universities

Starting to get a better sense of the numbers and how governments created this problem through a mixture of underfunding of post-secondary education and over-reliance on international students:

Ontario colleges and universities have been hit with more than $4.6 billion in lost revenues amid the drastic cuts to international students, new post-secondary figures obtained by the Star show.

And with Ottawa just announcing even fewer foreign students for 2026, for universities alone the impact is expected to increase from the $2.1 billion blow they are already dealing with.

The new numbers have the province’s universities now warning they “cannot cut their way out of these growing fiscal challenges.”

…Universities have already cut $550 million in the last few years, mainly through program loss, fewer services and staff cuts, and many schools are staring down deficits this school year. 

Colleges have cut $1.8 billion in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 school years, by cutting up to 10,000 jobs, and 600 programs as well as shuttering a number of campuses. …

Source: Here’s how much the cuts to Canada’s international students have hurt Ontario colleges and universities

Thousands of former international students’ visas will expire soon. What happens next is murky

Would be nice if we had reliable exit data to know:

Tens of thousands of international students who were granted postgraduate work permits will see their visas expire this year, casting doubt on their futures in Canada and leading economists to wonder if some will stay in the country as undocumented residents.

There were 31,610 people with valid postgraduate work permits in the country as of Sept. 30, and those visas will expire by Dec. 31, according to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) provided to The Globe and Mail.

Those numbers have recently come under scrutiny by economists and immigration experts because it’s unclear how many temporary residents remain in the country after their visas expire, adding to the undocumented population….

In a statement to The Globe, the federal Immigration Department said it did not have an estimate of the number of people in Canada on expired postgraduate work permits. 

“Once someone receives a permit, they must abide by the condition of their permit, including the legal requirement to leave Canada at the end of the authorized period of stay,” the IRCC said in the e-mailed statement. 

Last year, the Canada Border Services Agency deported approximately 18,000 people, but the agency does not publicly break that number down by type of study or work permit. 

The latest IRCC data show that the number of expiring postgraduate work permits is down sharply from the same period last year, when approximately 70,000 were due to expire. …

Source: Thousands of former international students’ visas will expire soon. What happens next is murky

USA: New Immigration Policy Likely To Block Many Family Immigrants

Of course, that is the point:

The Trump administration has proposed a new immigration policy likely to block many family-based immigrants from coming to America. The policy would label more family immigrants a “public charge,” allowing officials to prevent their entry. However, new research undermines the policy push, finding that a recent Federal Register notice ignores crucial empirical evidence: Individuals entering as family immigrants start with lower initial earnings but quickly adapt by trying new jobs and investing in skills and education that lead to rapid earnings growth. They are also unlikely to receive public assistance income.

Individuals who immigrate with family members or join them in the United States have been a central feature of immigration throughout American history. After Intel’s Andy Grove immigrated to America as a refugee following the Hungarian Revolution, he immediately pursued ways to sponsor his parents, who joined him in the United States. Years earlier, in 1885, a 16-year-old Friedrich Trump, Donald Trump’s grandfather, immigrated to America to join his sister Katherine, who “had immigrated to New York a year earlier,” according to Trump biographer Gwenda Blair.In 1930, Mary Anne MacLeod immigrated to America from Scotland as an unskilled 18-year-old to live with her married sister in Queens. Six years later, she met Fred Trump at a party, they married and had children, one of whom was Donald Trump. “Donald Trump is a product of (family) ‘chain migration,’” according to Columbia University historian Mae M. Ngai.

…DHS concedes in the Federal Register notice that new immigrants are not eligible for federal means-tested public benefits for at least five years after entering the United States. (The rules differ for refugees and asylees.) DHS also notes that sponsors of family immigrants sign legally binding affidavits of support. If considered, the affidavits of support should mitigate concerns that individuals may become a public charge since sponsors can reimburse benefit costs.

DHS does not express or cite concern that removing a structured review of applicants detailed by regulation in favor of subjective determinations by consular officers and others will, based on previous estimates, result in hundreds of thousands of immigrants annually being denied entry. The proposed rule does not consider it a cost that the DHS action will prevent many Americans from living in the United States with a spouse, child or other close relative, which will be the primary impact of the new policy.

The Federal Register notice cannot detail any quantitative benefits from the new policy, stating “DHS anticipates this proposed rule will produce benefits but is limited to providing a qualitative analysis.” The “qualitative” benefits DHS anticipates will not go to Americans or the U.S. economy, but to government personnel who will not be “unnecessarily” limited in their “ability to make public charge inadmissibility determinations.”

In recent weeks, the State Department issued a notice to consular officers to direct them to deny visas to people with obesity, diabetes or other health issues if they could be considered potential public charges. “A diplomat who received last week’s cable, and also spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, said State Department leadership has been very active in finding new ways to deny foreigners entry into the U.S. or just slow down the system,” reported the Washington Post (November 13, 2025)….

Source: New Immigration Policy Likely To Block Many Family Immigrants

Deportations to be reported to Parliament each month under Conservative changes to border bill 

Hard to argue against more data but the Government and NDP rejected a similar amendment in the case of C-3 (citizenship). But yes, quarterly and annual reports are more informative in terms of trends but given that all IRCC immigration-related data sets are released monthly on open data, same should apply here and on open data, not reports to parliament:

Ottawa would have to report to Parliament every month on the number of foreign nationals who have been deported, including those with criminal convictions, under changes to the government’s border bill pushed through by the Conservatives

A slew of amendments to Bill C-12, including boosts to immigrationenforcement, passed in a marathon meeting of the Commons public safety meeting on Tuesday evening, where MPs scrutinized the bill until midnight. 

The committee voted for detailed monthly reports to Parliament on the number of deportations, including on where people came from and their age and gender, despite objections from a senior border official who argued that quarterly or annual reports would paint a clearer picture.

The amendment, proposed by the Conservatives, follows a report earlier this year that hundreds of convicted criminals facing deportation have gone missing. …

Source: Deportations to be reported to Parliament each month under Conservative changes to border bill