Nicolas: De Los Angeles à Kananaskis

2025/06/13 Leave a comment

Discomforting possible parallel. We will see this upcoming weekend:

….Ce qui se passe à Los Angeles représente un tournant, sur deux principaux aspects.

Premièrement, sur le fond, soit la violence politique envers les personnes immigrantes. Les agents de contrôle de l’immigration (ICE) arrêtent des parents sur leurs lieux de travail pendant que leurs enfants sont à l’école et tentent de se déployer dans des écoles primaires pour y interroger des enfants. On a vu d’autres enfants être privés de leur droit à être représentés par un avocat et être interrogés seuls par les autorités. On a déjà vu aussi, un peu partout au pays, des gens être « déportés » vers des prisons du Salvador et à Guantánamo. J’utilise le mot « déportés » entre guillemets, puisqu’il n’est pas question de retourner les gens vers leur pays d’origine : il s’agit plus de kidnappings. Dans une ville comme Los Angeles, s’en prendre à la population immigrante au statut irrégulier, c’est s’en prendre au tissu social, économique et communautaire de la métropole. La population résiste, parce que les personnes qui sont ciblées par ICE sont indissociables de la population même.

Si l’on considère que les personnes qui ne possèdent pas la citoyenneté d’un pays n’ont pas de droits fondamentaux, la démocratie est déjà mise à mal.

Deuxièmement, sur la résistance politique qui se déploie face à ICE. Lorsque des citoyens décident de dénoncer le fait que des parents soient séparés brutalement de leurs enfants, ou que des enfants soient séparés brutalement de leurs parents, ils exercent leur liberté de conscience politique, leur liberté d’expression et leurs droits civiques. En déployant des agents militaires sans le consentement du gouverneur de l’État, et sans que la situation le justifie, Trump franchit encore une autre ligne. La question grave qui se pose désormais, c’est : existe-t-il dorénavant une possibilité que les élections de mi-mandat ne soient pas des élections libres ? Parce que lorsqu’on commence à gérer le débat politique par l’intimidation armée, où et quand s’arrête-t-on, et pourquoi ?

Revenons au Canada, et à la tentation, qui remonte par soubresauts, de « normaliser » nos relations avec États-Unis. Bien sûr, vu que notre économie est en jeu, ça se comprend tout à fait. Mais il existe un risque sérieux, vu le rythme où Washington s’enfonce, que nos liens avec nos voisins nous entraînent aussi vers l’abysse avec eux. Et par abysse, j’entends ici une forme d’abysse morale. Si la démocratie est précieuse pour les Canadiens, on ne peut s’attacher aussi intimement à un régime déterminé à la fragiliser, chez nous comme chez eux.

Alors que le G7 s’ouvre à Kananaskis, en Alberta, j’ai certaines appréhensions. L’Histoire ne se répète jamais, mais je crois que l’on peut tout de même tirer certaines leçons de l’échec monumental des Accords de Munich de 1938. J’espère que les chefs d’État seront plus rapides, cette fois-ci, à reconnaître en leur sein l’acteur qui affiche un mépris ouvert pour la règle de droit.

Source: De Los Angeles à Kananaskis

…. What is happening in Los Angeles represents a turning point, on two main aspects.

First, on the substance, either political violence against immigrants. Immigration Control Officers (ICE) arrest parents at their workplaces while their children are in school and try to deploy to primary schools to interview children. Other children have been deprived of their right to be represented by a lawyer and questioned alone by the authorities. We have also seen, all over the country, people being “deported” to prisons in El Salvador and Guantánamo. I use the word “deported” in quotation marks, since there is no question of returning people to their country of origin: it is more about kidnappings. In a city like Los Angeles, attacking the irregular immigrant population is attacking the social, economic and community fabric of the metropolis. The population resists, because the people who are targeted by ICE are inseparable from the population itself.

If we consider that people who do not have the citizenship of a country do not have fundamental rights, democracy is already being damaged.

Secondly, on the political resistance that is unfolding against ICE. When citizens decide to denounce the fact that parents are abruptly separated from their children, or that children are abruptly separated from their parents, they exercise their freedom of political conscience, their freedom of expression and their civil rights. By deploying military agents without the consent of the governor of the state, and without the situation justifying it, Trump crosses yet another line. The serious question that now arises is: is there now a possibility that midterm elections are not free elections? Because when we begin to manage the political debate through armed intimidation, where and when do we stop, and why?

Let’s go back to Canada, and to the temptation, which is rising by ups, to “normalize” our relations with the United States. Of course, since our economy is at stake, it is quite understandable. But there is a serious risk, given the pace at which Washington is sinking, that our links with our neighbors also lead us to the abyss with them. And by abyss, I mean here a form of moral abyss. If democracy is valuable to Canadians, we cannot be so intimately attached to a regime determined to weaken it, both at home and at home.

As the G7 opens in Kananaskis, Alberta, I have some apprehensions. History never repeats itself, but I believe that we can still learn some lessons from the monumental failure of the 1938 Munich Agreements. I hope that the Heads of State will be quicker, this time, to recognize within them the actor who displays an open contempt for the rule of law.

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Terry Glavin: We’re not Los Angeles yet, but it might be coming

2025/06/13 Leave a comment

Behind the alarmist click bait headline, some serious issues. Striking silence on the impact of social media discourses. They fraying of the consensus is largely based on concerns over housing, healthcare and infrastructure, all exacerbated by Liberal government excessive levels of both temporary and permanent residents, largely encouraged by provincial governments, business and advocates:

…On top of the economic impacts, there’s the matter of Canada’s fraying social fabric.

A huge surge in wealth migration from the People’s Republic of China in recent years has swamped Canada’s long-standing Cantonese communities and introduced grave threats to Canada’s political sovereignty. After all the scandals involving compromised federal politicians and manipulated federal election races, there is still no sign that the Carney government intends to proceed with a foreign influence registry.

With politically active immigrants from the Middle East emerging as a heavy counterweight to Canada’s long-standing affinity with the Jewish state of Israel, profound changes are underway in the formulation of Canada’s foreign policy and Canada’s traditions of religious tolerance.

For all the Liberals’ recent admissions of error, the Trudeau government’s immigration legacy is with us still, and there’s little evidence that a Carney government, despite its reassurances, will be making much of a break with it.

While Toronto has lately adopted an American-style “sanctuary city” policy through its Access T.O. initiative (“Access to City Services for Undocumented Torontonians), this doesn’t mean that Canada is hurtling towards American-style standoffs between federal and local enforcement authorities.

It’s just that while Americans are going through distinctly American convulsions related to immigration, Canada doesn’t have anything to brag about. Canada’s old consensus on immigration has been broken. The public trust in a functioning immigration system has been badly shaken.

It can’t go on like this.

Source: Terry Glavin: We’re not Los Angeles yet, but it might be coming

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More Americans Are Giving Up U.S. Citizenship, New Report Finds

2025/06/13 3 Comments

To date, more for economic reasons (avoiding need to file US taxes) than for political ones. We shall see how that changes as this data is four years old, dating from Trump 1:

Once considered a rare and symbolic act, renouncing U.S. citizenship has become increasingly common — and, for many Americans living abroad, a practical decision. A new Boundless report reveals that annual renunciations have surged from an average of just 200–400 cases before 2009 to a record high of 6,705 in 2020, with numbers remaining elevated ever since.

The primary drivers of rising U.S. citizenship renunciations are complex international tax laws and foreign banking restrictions, but other factors also play a role in the growing trend.

Here are the key findings:

  • Trends: While still relatively rare overall, the consistent rise in citizenship renunciations since 2009 indicates a long-term shift rather than a short-term anomaly.
  • Motivations: The trend is primarily driven by a mix of legal, financial, and logistical challenges related to the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) — enacted in 2010 but fully implemented beginning in 2014. Growing disillusionment with U.S. policy and politics also plays a role in recent renunciation trends.
  • Demographic Insights: Most individuals giving up their citizenship are long-term expats living abroad, middle-income earners, and dual nationals who already possess citizenship in another country. A notable and expanding group includes “accidental Americans,” people unaware of their U.S. citizenship until flagged by overseas financial institutions
  • Global Context: Among other developed countries, the U.S. ranks sixth in renunciation rates relative to population and second in total renunciations. Unlike other countries — where military service or lack of emotional ties to the country drive renunciations — U.S. renunciations are largely driven by complex tax and banking rules applied to U.S. citizens living abroad.
  • Broader Implications: The ongoing rise in citizenship renunciations highlights major policy concerns, especially in areas like tax enforcement, foreign banking compliance, and the changing value proposition of American citizenship in a globalized world.
  • Renunciation Data Delays: Official U.S. renunciation statistics are typically published 12 to 18 months after the fact due to administrative processing and agency cross-referencing. This means data released in 2025 will mostly reflect renunciations from 2023 or early 2024. As a result, any shift in renunciation numbers during Trump’s first year back in office likely won’t be visible in the public record until 2026.

For many Americans living abroad, renouncing U.S. citizenship is less about politics and more about avoiding burdensome tax and banking rules. As more people live and work across borders, the U.S. may need to reevaluate whether its policies support or hinder the lives of its citizens overseas.

Source: More Americans Are Giving Up U.S. Citizenship, New Report Finds

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Saunders: Mexico and Canada fell apart over migration. Could it bring us back together?

2025/06/12 Leave a comment

While regular pathways for workers are preferable to irregular ones, don’t think eliminating visitor visa requirements is the right way to go. Invites perceived abuse and thus contributes to less support for immigration compared to work visas (which of course can also be abused):

…Mr. Carney’s “nation-building” agenda – the accelerated construction of millions of homes and transportation and energy infrastructure projects – will require unprecedented numbers of skilled-trades and construction workers, many from abroad. It’s an opportunity to forge a migration co-operation agreement with Mexico that could provide the incentives and processes needed to restore visa-free travel. 

The G7, given the elephant in the room, is probably not the place to start mending this rift. But the two heads of government should meet soon, and in person, to restore both human mobility and political cooperation between two countries that have more in common with each other than with the untamed animal lying between them.

Source: Mexico and Canada fell apart over migration. Could it bring us back together?

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Poilievre calls for ‘severe limits’ on Canadian population growth

2025/06/12 Leave a comment

Without, of course, giving any numbers. At some point, both Poilievre and critic Rempel Garner need to provide some numbers to define what they mean by “severe”. Halving numbers back to the Harper government, less or more?

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says the Canadian population has grown out of control and is calling on the Liberal government to further reduce immigration.

“We want severe limits on population growth to reverse the damage the Liberals did to our system,” Poilievre said during a press conference Tuesday in the foyer of the House of Commons.“The population has been growing out of control, our border has been left wide open. This has caused the free flow of drugs, illegal migration, human trafficking and much worse.”

Poilievre did not take followup questions from reporters on what he meant by “severe limits on population growth.”Global News has reached out to the Conservative Party of Canada for clarification but did not receive a response at the time of publication…

Source: Poilievre calls for ‘severe limits’ on Canadian population growth

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Visible minorities in the GTA increasingly supporting Conservatives: U of T study

2025/06/12 Leave a comment

Interesting and relevant study. Think the shift largely reflects economic concerns and affordability, particularly among younger voters, whether visible minorities or not, and the effectiveness of Conservative outreach and engagement:

Federal and provincial Conservatives are winning over more visible minority voters in the GTA, a new study has found.

According to researchers at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities, visible minorities in the GTA, who make up more than half of the population, are increasingly backing Conservative candidates in federal and provincial elections. The study, out Wednesday, considers anyone, besides Indigenous people, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour as a visible minority, as defined by Statistics Canada.

The findings are based on federal and Ontario election results over the past two decades, including the two most recent national and provincial elections earlier this year.

“What used to be a weak spot for the right is now a growing base,” Prof. Emine Fidan Elcioglu and research assistant Aniket Kali wrote in the study, noting the Conservatives have historically been seen as the party of the white and wealthy, at least until recent years.

“The more diverse the riding, the stronger the Conservative numbers.”

The researchers point to the federal election in April as an example.

Ridings where visible minorities make up the majority shifted rightward by 10 to over 20 percentage points compared to the 2021 federal election — higher than the Conservatives national gain of 7.6 percentage points in the vote count. Most of these ridings are located in the 905 belt around Toronto, which the Star previously reported denied Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals a majority government thanks to a blue wave.

While the researchers had a sense that some visible minorities have shifted to the right when it comes to voting, the findings still had some surprises. 

“It was quite stark to see just how consistent the polls were over time,” Kali said in an interview.

There are multiple reasons for this shift in voting behaviour, according to the researchers.

First is a decades-long, concentrated attempt by the Conservative party to reach racialized communities through efforts such as multilingual ads and attending religious festivals. Conservatives have also recruited a lot of visible minority candidates — including more than the Liberals and NDP in the April federal election, according to a separate study.

All this, Elcioglu and Kali said, came as the Liberal party was increasingly being seen as “a party of broken promises” around affordability, housing and other issues.

“The Liberal arty and the sort of disenchantment with (Justin) Trudeau is certainly part of the puzzle,” Elcioglu said, “but it doesn’t explain everything.”

Another reason for the shift to the right is changing attitudes among second-generation Canadians.

In interviews with 50 second-generation Canadians around the GTA — most of whom were either South Asian or Chinese — Elcioglu said she heard that people thought voting Conservative meant becoming more “Canadian.”

“It’s a way to say, ‘I made it. I belong. I’m not voting like my Liberal party immigrant parents,’” Elcioglu said of the responses she heard in the interviews.

Although the study shows growing support among visible minority voters for the Conservatives, the researchers stressed that this group of people is not a monolith.

“Immigrants and minorities are a serious political constituency in the GTA.  They have serious issues and the party that organizes them on those issues and speaks to those issues is going to win some loyalty.”

Elcioglu said this understanding will be important for the Liberals and NDP if they want to win seats in future elections.

“Progressive parties shouldn’t assume that they have the support of racialized voters,” she said. “They need to do more listening and speak to the real issues.

“They need to go out into the suburbs.”

Source: Visible minorities in the GTA increasingly supporting Conservatives: U of T study

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Inquiétude palpable au Québec devant la chute marquée du nombre d’étudiants internationaux

2025/06/12 Leave a comment

As elsewhere in Canada:

Le nombre de demandes d’admission d’étudiants internationaux dans les universités québécoises a chuté de près de moitié en un an au Québec. Une situation qui menace de nuire à la survie financière de plusieurs établissements, à la recherche scientifique et à la vitalité économique de plusieurs secteurs, montre une vaste étude obtenue par Le Devoir.

Le document, de plus de 230 pages, a été réalisé par le cabinet de conseil en management Volume 10, qui rendra celui-ci public mercredi au terme d’une démarche marquée par une importante collecte de données gouvernementales et universitaires de même que par la réalisation de plus d’une centaine d’entretiens avec des chanceliers d’université, des acteurs du milieu des affaires et des personnalités, parmi lesquelles figurent Pauline Marois, Jean Charest et le scientifique en chef du Québec, Rémi Quirion.

« Il n’y a tout simplement pas assez d’étudiants québécois qui poursuivent des études avancées en science. Quand j’étais chercheur, sans l’apport des étudiants internationaux, mon laboratoire n’aurait jamais pu connaître un tel succès international », a d’ailleurs déclaré M. Quirion dans un entretien accordé aux auteurs de ce rapport, le président de Volume 10, Félix-Antoine Joli-Coeur, et la chercheuse Leila Dhar.

Or, entre avril 2024 et avril 2025, l’ensemble des universités québécoises a enregistré en moyenne une baisse des demandes d’admission provenant de l’international de 45,9 %, montre ce rapport, qui associe cette chute à une série de décisions prises par Québec et Ottawa dans les dernières années.

Le gouvernement fédéral a notamment mis en place en janvier 2024 un plafond du nombre de permis d’études pouvant être remis à des étudiants internationaux à l’échelle du pays, venant ainsi réduire de 35 % la délivrance de ceux-ci par rapport à l’année précédente. Il a par la suite abaissé ce seuil maximal de 10 % en janvier dernier par rapport à 2024….

Source: Inquiétude palpable au Québec devant la chute marquée du nombre d’étudiants internationaux

The number of applications for admission from international students to Quebec universities has fallen by almost half in a year in Quebec. A situation that threatens to harm the financial survival of several institutions, scientific research and the economic vitality of several sectors, shows a large study obtained by Le Devoir.

The document, of more than 230 pages, was produced by the management consulting firm Volume 10, which will make it public on Wednesday at the end of an approach marked by an important collection of government and academic data as well as by the conduct of more than a hundred interviews with university chancellors, business actors and personalities, including Pauline Marois, Jean Charest and Quebec’s chief scientist, Rémi Quirion.

“There are simply not enough Quebec students pursuing advanced studies in science. When I was a researcher, without the contribution of international students, my laboratory could never have been so successful internationally, “said Mr. Quirion in an interview with the authors of this report, the president of Volume 10, Félix-Antoine Joli-Coeur, and researcher Leila Dhar.

However, between April 2024 and April 2025, all Quebec universities recorded an average decrease in international admission applications of 45.9%, shows this report, which links this fall to a series of decisions taken by Quebec and Ottawa in recent years.

In particular, the federal government implemented in January 2024 a ceiling on the number of study permits that can be issued to international students nationwide, thus reducing the issuance of them by 35% compared to the previous year. It subsequently lowered this maximum threshold by 10% last January compared to 2024….

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Senator Dasko pitches elections law reforms to address enduring issue of candidate diversity

2025/06/12 Leave a comment

Repeat of previous bill that died: Highly unlikely that this bill, should it make it to the Commons, will pass given that political parties oppose being shackled by similar provisions as the public service and federally-regulated sectors, as in the case of privacy:

…Experts offered mixed reviews of Bill S-213, describing it as a ‘baby step’ forward, or as a watered-down attempt to address an already well-known problem….

But one area where Tolley said she wishes the bill went further is in terms of broader—not gender specific—diversity.

“There has been a tendency when we have these conversations about diversification to focus on

gender, and assume that if we figure out the gender piece, all of the other diversities will follow.

The research suggests that’s not really the case,” she said. “When we focus on diversity in this sort of aggregate or generic way, the primary beneficiaries tend to be white women, often to the exclusion of other groups.”

Still, recognizing the “balancing act” in play in regulating political parties, Tolley said she sees the bill as a “baby step” forward….

Andrea Lawlor, an associate political science professor at McMaster University, described S-213 as a “very limited way of introducing some requirements around political parties,” but said the voluntary nature of both aspects of the act—of having policies and programs to disclose, and responding to a demographic questionnaire—undermines its effectiveness.

“It takes a kernel of a really good idea, which is enhanced transparency, but I feel it waters itself down,” said Lawlor, who nonetheless lauded S-213 as a good-faith effort.”

Due to its voluntary nature, the survey could produce an “incomplete picture,” and the bill gives parties “that are weaker on these measures” an out in terms of even having policies, programs, or rules to encourage candidate diversity, said Lawlor.

“A party can kind of say, you know, ‘mind your own business, our internal party processes are our own.”…

Source: Senator Dasko pitches elections law reforms to address enduring issue of candidate diversity

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The Functionary On PM Carney’s Work Style

2025/06/11 2 Comments

Another interesting assessment of Carney’s management style:

“For too long, when federal agencies have examined a new project, their immediate question has been ‘why?’ With this bill, we will instead ask ourselves ‘how?’” he said.

That’s a signal.

He expects the public service to change how it works: less process, more results. Less caution, more action. Fewer barriers, more execution.

The bill also creates a Major Projects Office — a single federal point of contact to help priority projects through assessment and permitting.

It’s a tall order: a major cultural shift from administration to execution. From gatekeepers to doers. Public servants managed to do it during the pandemic, when rules loosened and they were galvanized by the mission to protect the health of Canadians.

But this time around it won’t be easy. As one long-time deputy minister put it, this is about a “client-focused approach to delivery” for a system built on managing risk and compliance.

“This legislation is a test for us to prove we can deliver. People are excited, but we’ll have to work really hard to do it,” said a senior bureaucrat not authorized to speak publicly.

“How do we streamline our processes to be more efficient? How do we actually think about the national interests of the country while recognizing environmental and Indigenous rights? That culture shift is a different way of thinking and focuses on execution.”….

Ready or not, Carney demands answers
Word has spread fast that Carney doesn’t suffer weak briefings. He’s known to cut them short when officials can’t answer his questions — and to call people out when they’re unprepared.

The stories get retold, maybe reshaped — it is Ottawa, after all — but the message has landed: come ready or don’t come at all.

Everyone’s heard a version: Carney meets with a senior bureaucrat who can’t answer a question. He stops the briefing cold and in so many words tells them to come back when they know their file. Ouch.

The risk in that kind of exchange? Officials might start pulling their punches — and stop speaking truth to power.

Carney brings a “toughness,” as one senior bureaucrat told me. He expects the clerk and deputy ministers to know their files cold. No vague answers. No promises to follow up. He wants clear answers in the room. “He digs and digs,” said one official. “People will just have to adjust and be ready for that.”

Source: The Functionary On PM Carney’s Work Style

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Can Near-Historic Low Migrant Encounter Levels at the U.S.-Mexico Border Be Sustained?

2025/06/11 Leave a comment

Good question, force only or with other migration management measures that started under the Biden administration:

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border have fallen to lows not seen since the 1960s. In April, the U.S. Border Patrol reported intercepting fewer than 8,400 irregular crossers—a stark contrast from the record high of nearly 250,000 encounters witnessed in December 2023. And data picked up elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere suggest unauthorized migration headed northward is slowing across the region: Reporting from the Darien Gap, the treacherous jungle that divides Panama and Colombia, shows there were just 200 crossings in March, compared to more than 37,000 the same month a year earlier.

With these near-historic lows, the Trump administration can rightfully claim that it has secured the border at this time, building on declines that began in early 2024 and accelerated in the second half of the year. The longer-term test, however, is whether this success can be sustained through the administration’s new show of force alone, without the less visible migration management ingredients that led to the quieting border the administration inherited.

A Year-Long Story of Reduced Migrant Flows 

The current lows build on a pattern of reduced irregular arrivals that started with changes in Biden administration policies in early 2024. Amid the record level of Southwest border arrivals witnessed in December 2023, which came on the heels of two years of record border encounters during the Biden administration, the U.S. and Mexican governments negotiated increased Mexican enforcement at Mexico’s northern border and throughout the country, including checkpoints throughout well-traveled interior routes.

With this ongoing additional enforcement from Mexico, irregular arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border decreased by 53 percent between December 2023 and May 2024 (see Figure 1). The impact of Mexican enforcement cannot be overstated: Mexican authorities recorded more encounters than did the U.S. Border Patrol  every single month between May 2024 and March 2025 (the most recent month for which Mexican enforcement data are available).

Figure 1. Irregular Migrant Encounters by U.S. Border Patrol at U.S.-Mexico Border, 2023–25

Note: The data here reflect encounters recorded by the U.S. Border Patrol of migrants crossing the border without authorization; U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Office of Field Operations encounters of migrants arriving at a U.S. port of entry without prior authorization to enter are not included here.
Source: CBP, “CBP Nationwide Encounters,” accessed May 29, 2025.

Following implementation of the Biden administration’s June 2024 Secure the Border rule,  irregular encounters continued to drop, with the ongoing aid offered by increased Mexican enforcement. This rule sought to disincentivize illegal entries and incentivize arrivals at a port of entry by further limiting access to asylum for those who crossed between ports of entry and permitting an appointment, through use of the CBP One app, to be screened at an official port of entry. Those who entered through the CBP One app could later go on to apply for asylum.

Irregular crossings dropped from 84,000 that June to 47,000 in December, a 43 percent decrease. Notably, encounters in December 2024 were 81 percent lower than the same month a year earlier. Proof that the carrot-and-stick approach was beginning to turn the tide was seen in November 2024, when for the first time more migrants arrived at ports of entry than between (see Figure 2). Though by a small margin, this shift established a pattern of more migrants seeking to enter lawfully via CBP One rather than risk entering irregularly.

Figure 2. Migrant Encounters At and Between Ports of Entry at U.S.-Mexico Border, 2024

Note: Office of Field Operations (OFO) encounters occur at ports of entry; U.S. Border Patrol encounters occur between ports of entry.
Source: CBP, “CBP Nationwide Encounters.”

Inheriting an Increasingly Quiet Border

Thus, the current lows seen under the Trump administration represent a continuation of trends established during the prior administration—and momentum the Biden team put in place by increasing migration management cooperation with Mexico and other countries in the Western Hemisphere as well as further narrowing access to asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. However, upon taking office, the Trump administration shuttered many of the programs that had become the basis for dramatic reductions in irregular arrivals.

During his first days in office, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the border and a migrant “invasion.” By cancelling use of the CBP One app while leaving the Secure the Border rule restrictions in place, the Trump administration made asylum inaccessible at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Most notably, the administration terminated access to Biden-era humanitarian pathways that had helped reduce chaotic arrivals at the Southwest border. The Trump administration swiftly ended admissions under the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan (CHNV) parole program, which reduced irregular encounters of those nationalities at the border by 92 percent between October 2022 and December 2024. Nearly 532,000 individuals were admitted through the CHNV program, allowing them access to work permits and temporary relief from deportation. The administration also closed the Safe Mobility Offices (SMOs) that had been set up in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala to consider migrants for refugee resettlement or other lawful pathways before they reached the U.S. border. More than 40,000 people were approved for U.S. refugee status through the SMOs.

Source: Can Near-Historic Low Migrant Encounter Levels at the U.S.-Mexico Border Be Sustained?

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