Turcotte: Under pressure: How immigration is becoming a political fault line in Canada 

Pollara’s take on shifting attitudes. Not much new compared to other public opinion research. The question remains whether the Trudeau government’s trimming of immigration levels, and the Carney government’s maintaining the approach, will result in a positive shift in attitudes or not:

New polling on Canadian attitudes towards immigration

Pollara has been tracking Canadian attitudes toward immigration for decades, and to commemorate our 40th anniversary, we revisited this critical issue in a new national study. In a recent survey of 2,500 Canadian adults conducted from April 10 to 16, the most striking finding is the sharp increase in the number of Canadians who believe immigration levels are too high. When we first posed this question in 2002, only 34 percent held that view. Today, that figure has risen to 60 percent—a substantial 26-point jump that reflects a significant and lasting shift in public sentiment.i

Alberta stands out as the most critical province, with 65 percent of its residents saying immigration levels are excessive. Quebec (63 percent) and Ontario (62 percent) also show high levels of concern, reinforcing a regional pattern that now poses significant political and policy challenges for the federal government.

Cultural anxiety and fractured identity

The study finds a growing unease about the cultural implications of immigration. In 2002, most Canadians (58 percent) believed immigration enriched the national culture. By 2025, this consensus has eroded: just 33 percent of Canadians now hold the same view.

When examining the perceived cultural impact of immigration, the divide across regions is particularly striking in Quebec and Alberta.

Just 26 percent of Quebecers think accepting immigrants from different cultures makes our culture stronger, while 39 percent, the most of any province, think this weakens our culture. Alberta follows (29 percent strengthens/35 percent weakens), pointing to a notable undercurrent of skepticism towards multiculturalism. In contrast, more British Columbians (38 percent strengthens/31 percent weakens) and Atlantic Canadians (35 percent strengthens/28 percent weakens) express more favourable, if still cautious, assessments of immigration’s cultural contributions.

Signs of erosion 

Economic concerns around immigration are more pronounced than ever. In 2002, 40 percent of Canadians believed immigration increased unemployment. Today, a majority of Canadians (52 percent) share the same view. Once again, we see interesting regional differences with Albertans (56 percent) being the most worried.  Also, Canadians with college or high school education (55 percent) are particularly concerned about the impact of immigration on unemployment.

In the same vein, the overall impression about immigration has soured. When asked, “In general, what effect does immigration to this country have on your community?” almost half of Canadians (49 percent) back in 2002 felt positively. Twenty-three years later, only about one-third (35 percent) feel the same way.

This erosion of trust in immigration carries direct and growing consequences for the Carney government, which must now navigate a political landscape where support for immigration can no longer be assumed as a default consensus. For years, Canada’s pro-immigration stance was widely seen as a point of national pride—an expression of openness, pragmatism, and multicultural identity. But that consensus is beginning to fracture. Rising economic pressures, strained public services, and growing cultural anxiety have altered the public mood. What was once a source of political unity is now becoming a point of division.

The Carney government’s electoral focus on the external threat posed by Trump—while understandable and effective in mobilizing voters—has come at the cost of deeper engagement with emerging domestic tensions. The Trump issue remains real and immediate, particularly in the realms of trade, national security, and global democratic stability. But as the old saying goes, “This too shall pass.” The danger lies in mistaking a temporary crisis for a permanent framework of governance.

Source: DeepDive: Under pressure: How immigration is becoming a political fault line in Canada