Trump’s immigration move may force IT firms to shift staff offsite

Further possible effects for Indian IT services companies and tech in general:

US President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend immigration could further reduce Indian IT services companies’ reliance on H1-B visas.

While tech majors such as TCS and Infosys are increasingly hiring locally in the US and Europe, changes in delivery models following the Covid-19 pandemic could bring down the need for onsite deployment of Indian techies.

Trump, in a tweet, said he intends to sign an executive order to temporarily suspend immigration “in light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our great American Citizens.”

In the likelihood of immigration suspension, companies may not opt for H1-B visas as the Covid-19 pandemic has caused new headaches. TCS is already working on a delivery model that requires only 25 per cent of workforce to be present in an office. If 75 per cent of techies can do their work from outside office, it would not matter if they are in the US or in India.

“My estimate is that demand for onsite work (which requires H1-B) will come down by 50 per cent once things normalise,” said Harish HV, Managing Partner, ECube Investment Advisors.

While H1-B is a non-immigrant visa, Indians as well as others have been taking this route to get US citizenship. Indian nationals are the biggest beneficiaries of the H-1B visas, which the US Centre for USCIS issues to get “qualified” professionals into the US.

“Trump’s decision, albeit temporary, will have significant implications right from people whose citizenship is under process to H1-B renewals,” said a US immigration lawyer whose clients include Infosys, Mphasis and other tech companies. This development comes in the wake of US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) which, last week, gave its nod to extend H1-B visas which have expired or set to expire.

For the fiscal 2020-21, the US received around 275,000 fresh H1-B visa requests, of which 67 per cent were from India, US government data stated. The mandate is for granting 85,000 visas for immigrants.

According to industry estimates, there are around three million H1-B visa holders. While there are no definitive numbers on how many H1-B visa holders apply for citizenship, some lawyers peg that 24 per cent of H1-B visa holders tend to get green cards every year.

Indian software services companies have had it tough in the last few years. Visa rejection rates were around 30 per cent in 2019 and only two Indian companies were among the top ten visa recipients. Companies that BusinessLine reached out to declined to comment on Trump’s tweet since the final policy document has not been released by the US Government.

H1-B visas have been under the lens by US authorities as visa abuse cases have been reported and lawsuits filed against Indian companies, alleging that people of South Asian origin are hired to displace American workers.

On their part, Indian companies have started to hire in the US. However, such restrictions in the current scenario of weak revenue and higher local employees would have an impact in the short term, said an analyst from a brokerage house who did not wish to be quoted.

Shares of TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra all closed lower than Monday’s close after Trump tweeted.

Source: Trump’s immigration move may force IT firms to shift staff offsite

Some refugee claimants can now enter Canada

Good overview of the limited exceptions:

Some refugee claimants from the United States can once again enter Canada.

The Canada Border Services Agency announced Wednesday that claimants eligible for exemptions under the Safe Third Party Agreement between Canada and the U.S. can enter the country through official land border crossings. Those entering through irregular border crossings will still be returned to the U.S.

“People who arrive irregularly between border crossings are still prohibited from entering Canada to make a refugee claim,” the federal agency said on Twitter, in French.

“As of today, claimants can enter the country at designated land ports of entry only if they are among the few who are eligible for exemptions under the Safe Third Party Agreement.”

Those exempted from the agreement include claimants with family in Canada, unaccompanied minors or people who already have permits, like a student visa. They will also be subject to the mandatory 14-day quarantine for new arrivals.

Last month, in announcing the closure of the Canada’s border with the United States, as part of efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government said it would return all refugee claimants coming into the country via irregular crossings back to the U.S. The Americans also said they would do the same for those entering their country from Canada.

At Monday’s sitting of the House of Commons, Public Safety Minister Bill Blair, answering a question from Conservative MP Joël Godin, said that at least 10 people had made irregular crossing since the ban. They were returned to the United States, Blair confirmed.

News of the change to allow some refugee claimants to enter Canada through designated ports of entry first came on Wednesday when Jean-Pierre Fortin, president of the Customs and Immigration Union, gave radio interviews.

Fortin called the change a “surprise” move that was communicated to his members at the end of the day Tuesday.

“We are in a state of crisis,” Fortin said. “We think it is too early to open the border.”

He added that the Canadian Border Services Agency has reserved a nearby hotel, with about 50 rooms, where refugee claimants who take advantage of this new opening would have to go into quarantine for 14 days before the claims could be processed.

Fortin also expressed concerns that Customs officers would need protective equipment and safeguards to deal with people who may have the COVID-19 virus and he said the waiting room for people coming through the border crossing is not large, making social distancing difficult.

In Ottawa, when he was asked about the change at his daily pandemic briefing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said as far as he knows the Canada-U.S. Safe Third Country Agreement is still in force. He then referred the question to Minister Blair.

CBSA media relations staff disclosed the Order in Council to reporters seeking more information. The new rules remain in effect until May 21, the date the Canada-U.S. border is set to reopen.

The change was requested by Health Canada, according to a CBSA official, who said the intent is to “minimize the risk of exposure to COVID-19 in Canada.” The official confirmed that foreign nationals are still prohibited from entering Canada from the United States if they have “COVID-19 or have signs and symptoms of COVID-19” or officials have “reasonable grounds to suspect they have such signs and symptoms.”

Refugee rights advocates have called on the government to reopen the border to all asylum seekers.

Janet Dench, the Canadian Council of Refugees, said the ban is “wrong and unnecessary.”

Still, she said changing the rules to allow refugee claimants who have family members already in Canada to enter represents “a step in the right direction.”

“I doesn’t solve the problem, though,” Dench said, calling on the government to respect the rights of asylum seekers to come to Canada.

Source: Some refugee claimants can now enter Canada

Trump Administration Bars Most International Students From Receiving Coronavirus College Relief

Seems similar to the Canadian approach (Canadian citizens and permanent residents studying at Canadian institutions) but to be confirmed when program guidelines confirmed:

The Trump administration is barring most international students and all students who entered the U.S. illegally from receiving emergency college grants approved by Congress as part of a $2.2 trillion coronavirus rescue package.

Education Secretary Betsy DeVos issued the restriction in new guidelines released Tuesday telling colleges how to distribute more than $6 billion in grants meant to help students cover unexpected costs triggered by the pandemic. Earlier guidance from the Education Department suggested universities would have wide flexibility in distributing the grants, but the new guidelines said that only students who qualify for other federal student aid can receive the aid.

More than 400,000 students are estimated to have entered the U.S. illegally. More than 1 million international students are enrolled at U.S. colleges.

University leaders and immigration groups blasted the change, saying DeVos is imposing new limits that were not included in Congress’ legislation. The rescue package did not specify which students are eligible for grants, and many colleges had planned to distribute emergency grants to needy students regardless of their citizenship status.

Some prestigious universities cited the new policy in decisions to reject the funding. Princeton University announced Wednesday that it would refuse its $2.4 million share of coronavirus relief over the policy. Harvard University also cited the change in its decision to reject $8.7 million in aid.

The Education Department said its guidance is aligned with other federal laws. The agency cited the Higher Education Act, a sweeping law that says only U.S. citizens and a narrow set of “eligible noncitizens” are eligible for federal student aid. Angela Morabito, a department spokeswoman, said the rescue package legislation “makes clear that this taxpayer funded relief fund should be targeted to U.S. citizens, which is consistently echoed throughout the law.”

But some higher education advocates challenged that claim. The American Council on Education, an association of college presidents, said the rescue package placed no limits on student eligibility.

“The statute says almost nothing about who is eligible to receive a grant. The Department of Education owns this decision. Period,” said Terry Hartle, the group’s senior vice president. He added that the group is disappointed by DeVos’ policy. “We strongly believed many of these students needed help.”

The guidelines have created confusion about exactly which students can receive the grants, Hartle said. It’s clear that the department is excluding immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally and international students, he said, but it’s unclear how schools should determine eligibility. Most colleges don’t ask students if they’re U.S. citizens, he said, and officials have no easy way to check.

“A college could give an emergency grant to a Dreamer without realizing the person is a Dreamer,” he said, referring to immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally but allowed to stay under the under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA.

At the University of California, Riverside, officials had been planning to award grants to some of the campus’ estimated 600 DACA recipients. Now, officials will turn to fundraising or other revenue sources to help students excluded by the Education Department.

Chancellor Kim Wilcox said he’s grateful for the federal relief but was disheartened by DeVos’ policy.

“I was disappointed for students here at UCR, for students across California, and I was disappointed for the nation,” Wilcox said. “This is a huge economic hit and there are pressing needs everywhere.”

Student advocates see DeVos’ update as a reversal from her previous guidance. When DeVos made the funding available in early April, she said colleges would be given flexibility in deciding how to award grants. She told colleges to focus on helping the neediest students. And in paperwork that colleges sign to receive the funding, the agency says the relief isn’t considered federal financial aid.

That earlier guidance led some schools to believe the grants were exempt from citizenship requirements.

Sara Goldrick-Rab, a professor of higher education policy and sociology at Temple University, said the new requirements are cruel to students who were counting on the grants to cover food, housing and other costs, and to colleges that now have to scramble to revise plans for distributing the funding. Losing access to the grants will likely force some students to drop out, she said, especially those whose families are dealing with unemployment amid the pandemic.

“They’re not going to have the money that they need to stay connected to their college. And people who drop out of college often do not come back,” said Goldrick-Rab, who founded the nonprofit Hope Center for College, Community and Justice.

Critics say the policy is particularly unjust because the same students now barred from receiving grants were counted in the formula used to allocate money for schools. The rescue package provided $14 billion for the nation’s colleges, offering them varying sums based on their student enrollment and the percentage of students they teach from poorer backgrounds.

The United We Dream Network, which advocates for DACA recipients, said it was “callous” of DeVos to block so many students from access to funding. Sanaa Abrar, the group’s advocacy director, urged Congress and colleges to find other ways to help students excluded by DeVos’ directive.

“Every single relief package being discussed in Congress must include both the health care and financial assistance immigrant communities need,” Abrar said, “especially as the Trump administration continues to attack and scapegoat our communities amidst a pandemic.”

Source: Trump Administration Bars Most International Students From Receiving Coronavirus College Relief

Trump says he will suspend all immigration into U.S. over coronavirus

Not terribly surprising given that has always been his intent and that of his senior policy advisor and anti-immigration hawk, Stephen Miller. Details yet to come:

President Donald Trump said on Monday he will suspend all immigration into the United States temporarily through an executive order in response to the coronavirus outbreak and to protect American jobs.

The move, which the Republican president announced on Twitter, effectively achieves a long-term Trump policy goal to curb immigration, making use of the health and economic crisis that has swept the country as a result of the pandemic to do so.

The decision drew swift condemnation from some Democrats, who accused the president of creating a distraction from what they view as a slow and faulty response to the coronavirus.

Trump said he was taking the action to protect the U.S. workforce. Millions of Americans are suffering unemployment after companies shed employees amid nationwide lockdowns to stop the contagion.

“In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States,” Trump said in a tweet.

The White House declined to offer further details about the reasoning behind the decision, its timing, or its legal basis.

“As our country battles the pandemic, as workers put their lives on the line, the President attacks immigrants & blames others for his own failures”, former Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar said in a tweet.

Immigration is largely halted into the United States anyway thanks to border restrictions and flight bans put in place as the virus spread across the globe.

But the issue remains an effective rallying cry for Trump’s supporters.

Trump won the White House in 2016 in part on a promise to curb immigration by building a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico. He and his advisers have spent the first three years of his tenure cracking down on both legal and illegal entries into the country. Crowds regularly chant “Build the Wall!” at Trump’s political rallies, which are now idled because of the virus.

Trump has lamented the economic fallout of the outbreak; his stewardship of the U.S. economy was set to be his key argument for re-election in November.

The U.S. death toll from the virus topped 42,000 on Monday, according to a Reuters tally.

The U.S. economy has come to a near standstill because of the pandemic; more than 22 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the last month.

“You cut off immigration, you crater our nation’s already weakened economy,” former Democratic presidential candidate Julian Castro said in a tweet. “What a dumb move.”

The United States has the world’s largest number of confirmed coronavirus cases, with more than 780,000 infections, up 27,000 on Monday.

But the president has made a point of saying the peak had passed and has been encouraging U.S. states to reopen their economies.

“It makes sense to protect opportunities for our workforce while this pandemic plays out,” said Thomas Homan, Trump’s former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. “It’s really not about immigration. It’s about the pandemic and keeping our country safer while protecting opportunities for unemployed Americans.”

The United States in mid-March suspended all routine visa services, both immigrant and non-immigrant, in most countries worldwide due to the coronavirus outbreak in a move that has potentially impacted hundreds of thousands of people.

U.S. missions have continued to provide emergency visa services as resources allowed and a senior State Department official in late March said U.S. was ready work with people who were already identified as being eligible for various types of visas, including one for medical professionals.

The administration recently announced an easing of rules to allow in more agricultural workers on temporary H2A visas to help farmers with their crops.

Source: Trump says he will suspend all immigration into U.S. over coronavirus

CDC Hospital Data Point To Racial Disparity In COVID-19 Cases

More on racial disparities:

About 1 in 3 people who become sick enough to require hospitalization from COVID-19 were African American, according to hospital data from the first month of the U.S. epidemic released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Even though 33% of those hospitalized patients were black, African Americans constitute 13% of the U.S. population. By contrast, the report found that 45% of hospitalizations were among white people, who make up 76% percent of the population. And 8% of hospitalizations were among Hispanics, who make up 18% of the population.

Don’t see the graphic above? Click here.

The study of about 1,500 hospitalized patients in 14 states underscores the long-standing racial disparities in health care in the U.S. It also echoes what has been seen in other coronavirus outbreaks around the world — people with chronic health conditions have a higher likelihood of developing a serious illness after being infected with coronavirus. The findings appear in the MMWR, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Overall, the report found that about 90% of people in the hospital with COVID-19 had at least one underlying health condition. Half (50%) had high blood pressure, 48% were obese, 35% had chronic lung disease and 28% had diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

Hospitalizations were highest among people 65 and older, and about 54% of those hospitalized were men.

People who were hospitalized had a wide range of symptoms. The most common symptoms at the time of hospital admission were cough (86%), fever or chills (85%), and/or shortness of breath (80%). Upset stomach and gastrointestinal symptoms were documented as well: 27% had diarrhea and 24% reported nausea or vomiting.

Asked about the reports of health disparities and racial divide at a White House coronavirus task force briefing on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health said that African Americans do not seem more likely to be infected by coronavirus.

But he added that “underlying medical conditions, [including] diabetes, hypertension, obesity, [and] asthma” might make it more likely that African Americans are admitted to the ICU or die from the disease. “We really do need to address” the health disparities that exist in the U.S., Fauci said.

“These findings underscore the importance of preventive measures (e.g., social distancing, respiratory hygiene, and wearing face coverings in public settings where social distancing measures are difficult to maintain),” the authors of the report write, “to protect older adults and persons with underlying medical conditions, as well as the general public.”

Source: CDC Hospital Data Point To Racial Disparity In COVID-19 Cases

As U.S. Health-Care System Buckles under Pandemic, Immigrant & Refugee Professionals Could Represent a Critical Resource

Another good analysis by MPI:

In this time of crisis when health-care workers are not only on the frontlines of fighting COVID-19 but are themselves among its primary targets, it is more essential than ever to have enough qualified professionals to meet the needs of a buckling U.S. medical system. As governors call retired physicians back into service and medical schools graduate students on an accelerated basis, another pool can be tapped: Immigrant and refugee physicians, nurses, and health-care technicians who could offer not only critical professional knowledge but also essential linguistic and cultural skills. Around the globe, a number of countries battling the virus (among them France, Colombia, Spain, Chile, and Ireland) and subnational governments (including New York State, California, New Jersey, and the province of Buenos Aires in Argentina) are actively seeking ways to engage this population.

There are 1.5 million immigrants already employed in the U.S. health-care system as doctors, registered nurses, and pharmacists. At the same time, Migration Policy Institute (MPI) analysis finds another 263,000 immigrants and refugees with undergraduate degrees in health-related fields are either relegated to low-paying jobs that require significantly less education or are out of work. Along with 846,000 U.S.-born adults whose health-related college degrees are similarly underutilized—a phenomenon MPI has long referred to as “brain waste”— these immigrants represent a potentially important source of staff for the U.S. health corps. And because these immigrants tend to be younger than their U.S.-born counterparts, they represent an important pool of responders to a disease that is particularly dangerous for those 60 and older.

Figure 1. Adults (ages 25 to 64) Whose Health-Related Undergraduate Degrees Are Not Fully Utilized, by Nativity and Place of Education, 2017

Source: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) tabulation of U.S. Census Bureau 2017 American Community Survey (ACS) data.

Definitions & Methodological Note

Underutilized adults are defined here as civilians between ages 25 and 64 who currently are employed in jobs that require no more than a high school diploma, are unemployed, or are not engaged in the labor force.

Immigrants refers to persons who were not U.S. citizens at birth. This population includes naturalized U.S. citizens, lawful permanent immigrants (or green-card holders), refugees and asylees, certain legal nonimmigrants (including those on student, work, or other temporary visas), and persons residing in the country without authorization. The term U.S. born refers to those born in the United States or abroad to at least one U.S.-citizen parent.

Foreign trained are defined here as immigrants who came to the United States at age 25 or later and who have at least a bachelor’s degree (i.e., they likely obtained their degrees abroad), while U.S. trained are those who arrived before age 25 and obtained their four-year college degrees in the United States.

Methodological note: The analysis here differs from the Migration Policy Institute’s earlier work on immigrant skill underutilization (also known as brain waste), in that for the purposes of examining an urgently needed talent pool that could be tapped during this crisis, it also includes college-educated immigrants of prime working age who not engaged in the labor force. Foreign-trained health-care graduates are significantly more likely to be out of the labor force than their U.S.-trained immigrant counterparts and could thus represent a substantial potential pool of workers. This analysis finds 140,000 immigrants with health-related degrees ages 25-64 are not employed and not looking for work, representing 53 percent of all 263,000 immigrants with a four-year health-care degree who are underutilized. Forty percent are employed in jobs requiring no more than a high school degree, and the remaining 7 percent are unemployed.

MPI research over the years has shown that a sizeable share of immigrant college graduates faces significant challenges in securing jobs that take full advantage of their prior education and work experience. The analyses presented here affirm that this underutilization is common among the foreign born who hold undergraduate degrees in the health-care field. What, then, are some of the most policy relevant characteristics of this population?

Place of Education

Where immigrants receive their education matters. Almost two-thirds (or 165,000) of all underutilized health-care immigrant workers likely obtained their health-related education outside the United States. The underemployment of these health-care professionals is in some ways not surprising: employers may be reluctant to hire workers with degrees from universities that are unfamiliar to them. Also, immigrants may lack important professional networks that connect them to employment opportunities or a sufficient level of professional English competence to get promoted. Further, their credentials may not be aligned with those required by U.S. health-care systems and licensing authorities. And it is common knowledge that obtaining U.S. licenses to work is difficult, time-consuming, and costly.

Demographics

As with health-care workers overall, college-educated immigrant and U.S.-born workers stuck in jobs requiring no more than a high school degree or out of work are overwhelmingly female (roughly 80 percent). They differ, though, in their age distribution—one factor that may be important in combatting a disease that is particularly dangerous for older persons. These immigrants tend to be younger than their U.S.-born counterparts: 56 percent are between ages 25 and 44, versus 45 percent among U.S.-born underutilized health professionals.

These immigrants also have long years of U.S. residence, with 62 percent having been in the United States for more than a decade. On the one hand, many may have gained or improved their English proficiency and acquired U.S. work experience. On the other hand, many may have been outside the health-care field for years, and their skills and education may have atrophied.

Degree Field

Nursing is the most common degree held by underutilized immigrants and refugees. Approximately 118,000 immigrants with undergraduate degrees in nursing are underutilized, representing 45 percent of all immigrant-health care professionals working below their skill level or sidelined. The data analyzed here indicate that many are working in low-paying jobs such as nursing assistants, home health aides, personal care aides, or as domestic help. Another 10 percent received undergraduate degrees in pharmacy and pharmaceutical sciences, followed by 8 percent with treatment therapy and 5 percent with medical technology technician degrees.

Language Skills

Underutilized immigrant health-care professionals could provide an important linguistic and cultural resource for their own communities now, during this time of crisis, and in the future. More than two-thirds are English proficient, that is, they speak English very well or only English. They also speak a variety of languages other than English, including Spanish (17 percent), Tagalog (15 percent), Chinese (6 percent), Korean and Arabic (4 percent each), as well as Haitian, Russian, Vietnamese, Hindi, Portuguese, French, and Telugu (2 percent each).

States of Residence

State Estimates of Health-Care Professional Underutilization

Find estimates of the size of the population of health-care professionals, immigrant and U.S. born alike, experiencing skill underutilization, as well as their place of education, for the top 20 states. Click here for the data.

More than 60 percent of underutilized immigrant health-care professionals live in traditional immigrant-receiving states. California has, by far, the largest number of such workers: 24 percent of the national total, or 60,000 workers. Other top states: Florida, 11 percent (or 29,000); Texas, 9 percent (23,000), New York, 8 percent (22,000), New Jersey, 5 percent (14,000), and Illinois, 4 percent (11,000).

Figure 2. Immigrant Adults (ages 25 to 64) Whose Health-Related Undergraduate Degrees Are Not Fully Utilized, by State of Residence, 2017

Source: MPI tabulation of Census Bureau 2017 ACS data.

Tapping This Talent?

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the skills of 263,000 immigrants and refugees with college degrees in health-related fields had not been put to the best use in the U.S. labor market. However, in a time of crisis with growing shortages of staff in hospitals, community clinics, health departments, and testing centers, many of these immigrants could be mobilized and re-employed in jobs across the health-care field.

While state governments and medical systems must remain vigilant about the quality of health-care services their residents receive, some opportunities to make adjustments to the arduous licensing process exist. States could speed up the certification process by allowing immigrant health-care professionals who pass all requirements except the final exam to work under supervision, or they could extend short-term, provisional approval for a limited set of tasks. The data presented here indicate that workers with nursing training could represent a promising target group. These nurses could be employed in assisting with testing for the virus. At minimum, these immigrant health-care professionals could be engaged in providing language and cultural assistance to overburdened health systems and frightened patients alike.

As hospital emergency rooms, community health centers, and other medical offices reel from the tremendous strain that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought, immigrant health-care professionals whose skills have not been fully utilized represent a promising candidate pool for policymakers, licensing authorities, and health-care providers to tap in a moment of national crisis.

Source: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/us-health-care-system-coronavirus-immigrant-professionals-untapped-resource

The Coronavirus Has Derailed The Citizenship Oath For Thousands Of Immigrants Who Are Anxious To Vote

As in Canada. Need to look at ceremonies by video conferencing as in Australia.

Of course, for the Trump administration and those Republicans wishing to discourage voting, this is more a feature than a problem:

Luis Molina had waited months to complete the final step in his decadeslong journey to become an American citizen: repeating the oath of allegiance to the United States along with hundreds of other would-be citizens on March 19.

Molina, a 51-year-old who left El Salvador as a young man, had planned to hold a celebratory dinner at his favorite restaurant in Pasadena, California — President Thai — after the naturalization ceremony in Los Angeles.

To become a US citizen, immigrants must go through a long, and at times arduous, process that includes an interview with an immigration officer and a test on American civics and the English language. The final step, however, is the easiest of them all: repeating 140 words in a celebratory event that’s often held in American theaters, convention centers, and courthouses.

This simple, but legally necessary step, is all that stands in the way of Molina being granted citizenship.

But that opportunity has been on hold: In March, naturalization ceremonies across the country were canceled due to the rapid spread of the coronavirus, and the agency that administers immigration benefits, US Citizenship and Immigration Services, closed its offices to the public. The ceremonies are supposed to be rescheduled, but like many other parts of American life, the timing is uncertain.

In the wake of the cancellations, immigrants like Molina fear that they not only won’t get the chance to call themselves Americans anytime soon, but that they won’t be able to vote in the upcoming presidential election. Experts warn that the delayed naturalizations could have an impact on the number of eligible voters in November, as many states require registration by October.

“I’m kind of nervous,” Molina said. He’s watched how the Trump administration has enforced the public charge rule, which penalizes green card applicants for using public benefits, and other restrictive immigration policies. “I’ve been thinking about how they change the rules and the laws and maybe I won’t be able to get citizenship. I feel intimidated.”

A USCIS spokesperson said field offices will send notices with instructions to applicants with scheduled interviews or naturalization ceremony appointments, which will automatically be rescheduled once normal operations resume.

Some ceremonies in Los Angeles that had been scheduled for later in May have yet to be canceled, but California officials have indicated that strict social distancing measures could last beyond that.

Under normal conditions, USCIS is able to naturalize 66,000 immigrants on average every month, according to Sarah Pierce, an analyst at Migration Policy Institute. The agency generally relies on in-person oaths at its office or in larger ceremonies outside of its own facilities.

“So far, because of COVID-19, there are already tens of thousands of immigrants who have had their naturalizations delayed, and these numbers will easily exceed 100,000 as this crisis drags on,” she said.

The agency regularly hosts ceremonies that pack more than 1,000 soon-to-be Americans in one place to conduct the oath altogether. If USCIS offices are able to open as planned on May 3, the agency will still face an inherent challenge: How will large groups of people be quickly naturalized?

“Unless USCIS implements an ambitious series of naturalization ceremonies once they are able to reopen in-person services, there will be tens of thousands of immigrants who will not be able to vote in this fall’s election, despite having completed nearly all the legal requirements to receive citizenship,” Pierce said. “Because naturalization ceremonies entail gatherings of large groups of people, there are a lot of outstanding questions about when USCIS will be able to restart these and what exactly they will look like. If the ceremonies are limited by public health concerns, unless USCIS comes up with innovative solutions, these delays could reverberate for years to come.”

Former senior USCIS leaders told BuzzFeed News the cancellations will inevitably have an impact on the number of people who are able to obtain citizenship this year.

“Field offices are 100% closed, meaning not just no naturalization ceremonies, but no naturalization interviews and also no green card interviews,” said Leon Rodriguez, former director of the agency under the Obama administration. “All of this was already severely backlogged before, so the problem will become much worse depending on the length of the closure.”

As of September 2019, there were already more than 600,000 naturalization applications pending.

The naturalization oath has been a long-held American tradition, spanning back to the late 1700s. Before the early 1900s, courts from across the country administered the oath in various ways, and it wasn’t until 1929 that a standardized oath was created. Later, the Immigration Act of 1950 added language to the oath that made immigrants promise to bear arms for the US and perform “noncombatant service in the armed forces of the United States when required by the law.”

There are waivers for the requirement to recite the oath, like if an individual does not agree to bear arms for the US because of religious circumstances or has a developmental disability that prevents them from understanding the oath, but in most circumstances it is required.

“It’s like being on the 1-yard line and suddenly there’s a timeout that may last for months. If you can’t take the oath of allegiance — a pro forma final step but a moving one — then you can’t become a US citizen,” said Doug Rand, who worked on immigration policy in the Obama White House and is now the cofounder of Boundless Immigration, a technology company that helps immigrants obtain green cards and citizenship. “That means you can’t vote, of course. It also means you can’t count on being safe from deportation or on protecting your family by sponsoring them for US citizenship.”

Rand has advocated for the agency to skip the live event altogether in light of the pandemic, while others have called for oaths to be administered via televideo.

Duncan Williams, a professor of religion at the University of Southern California, had also been scheduled to recite the oath of citizenship in Los Angeles on March 19. Williams, 50, came to the country as a 17-year-old from Japan for college. The Trump administration’s restrictive immigration policies — such as the travel ban and the policy that led to families being separated at the border — created a sense of urgency for Williams to obtain his citizenship.

“What is more unsettling is the uncertainty about the future implicated in the inability to complete the naturalization process,” he said.

Williams had expected to get his US passport and vote in the upcoming elections, confident in his status as an American.

“As a Japanese national,” he said, “I’ve been observing the rising anti-Asian sentiment in the US with some trepidation, with some regret that the protections afforded to citizens is not something I can secure at the present time.”

Source: The Coronavirus Has Derailed The Citizenship Oath For Thousands Of Immigrants Who Are Anxious To Vote

German, French Officials Accuse U.S. Of Diverting Supplies

Failure on humanitarian, ethical and institutional levels.

The best comment, with respect to the US, came from Ontario Premier Doug Ford: “We’re the two largest trading partners anywhere in the world. It’s like one of your family members (says), ‘OK you go starve and we’ll go feast on the rest of the meal.’ I’m just so disappointed right now. We have a great relationship with the U.S. and they pull these shenanigans? Unacceptable.”

As the coronavirus rattles the globe, governments and aid organizations everywhere find themselves in a race to acquire scarce medical supplies and protective equipment — but some say the United States isn’t playing fair.

Earlier this week, officials in both Germany and France accused the U.S. of diverting medical supplies meant for their respective countries by outbidding the original buyers.

As of Saturday, there were more than 1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and more than 60,000 deaths from the virus, according to a tally by researchers at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. has the most cases globally, with Germany and France at the fourth and fifth-highest case count, respectively.

On Friday, officials in Berlin alleged that the U.S. intercepted a shipment of medical equipment in Thailand from American medical supply company 3M and diverted it to the U.S., the German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reported. Berlin’s interior minister called the alleged interception “modern piracy.”

That same day, French officials accused the U.S. of redirecting a shipment of medical masks from Shanghai originally intended for a hard-hit French region to the U.S. by offering a much higher price for the supplies, The Guardian reported.

The accusations come as demand in the U.S. for facemasks surges, particularly after a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendation that all Americans should wear cloth face coverings in public.

The U.S. has flatly denied allegations of diverting supplies from other countries. But President Trump has also tried to force American companies into prioritizing U.S. orders by invoking the Defense Production Act. On Thursday, the president used the DPA to order 3M to stop exporting hospital-grade N95 masks to Canada and Latin America, according to the company.

“We hit 3M hard today after seeing what they were doing with their Masks. ‘P Act’ all the way,” the president said in a tweet Thursday night.

On Friday morning, 3M warned of “significant humanitarian implications” of ending shipments to Canada and Latin America, saying the company is “a critical supplier of respirators.” 3M also said other countries would likely retaliate, reducing the overall number of respirators in the U.S.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau echoed warnings against halting American medical exports to Canada on Friday.

“It would be a mistake to create blockages or reduce the amount of back-and-forth trade of essential goods and services including medical goods,” the Canadian leader said.

3M CEO Mike Roman also pushed back on the president’s threats to the company. “The idea that 3M is not doing all it can to fight price gouging and unauthorized retailing is absurd,” Roman said in a CNBC interview. “The narrative that we are not doing everything we can to maximize deliveries of respirators in our home country — nothing could be further from the truth.”

With no collective global effort to distribute supplies to countries that need them most, little stands in the way of global feuding and price-gouging. The Trump administration has come under criticism for the same issue in domestic markets.

The Washington Post reported earlier this week that states with governors who are allies to the president, including Florida’s Ron DeSantis, have had little trouble getting requests filled with supplies from the national stockpile. Meanwhile, some Democratic governors have struggled to get federal help.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo have repeatedly complained that trying to get federal supplies is like the “wild west”: states must compete against one another as well as other countries, with essential supplies going to the highest bidder.

Trump blamed New York’s shortage of ventilators on the state itself for not having more respirators before the pandemic broke out.

“They should’ve had more ventilators. They were totally under-serviced,” the president said Friday. “We have a lot of states that have to be taken care of, some much more than others.”

New York state has the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the country, with more than 100,000 cases of COVID-19 as of Saturday. The next closest state is New Jersey with just under 30,000 cases.

Source: German, French Officials Accuse U.S. Of Diverting Supplies

How Census Is Building a Citizenship Database Covering Everyone Living in the U.S.

Interesting read on how the US Census bureau is working on getting greater precision on citizenship using statistical modelling. Whether this will provide greater precision than the American Community Survey remains to be seen, as well as protections to ensure privacy and anonymization:

While the 2020 decennial count is underway, the Census Bureau is working on a separate effort to identify the percentage of the U.S. population that has legal citizenship. The result will be a Census-owned database of every person living in the U.S. with a statistical “citizenship estimate” linked to each individual.

The Trump administration initially pushed to include a citizenship question on the 2020 survey of America. However, in June of last year, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to prevent the administration from asking the question, citing poor justification for its inclusion.

A month after the ruling, President Trump signed Executive Order 13880, requiring the bureau to produce data on the citizen voting-age population, or CVAP, by the end of March 2021, and mandating relevant agencies share databases to help Census achieve that end.

Next year, the bureau will release a publicly-available statistical modeling of citizen and non-citizen populations throughout the country, anonymized using a cutting-edge masking system. The effort will also create a dataset with a citizenship estimate for every person in the U.S., which—by law and by practice—should never be seen outside of the Census Bureau.

In an internal document obtained by Nextgov, bureau officials note the Census Unedited File—which is used to determine apportionments, including congressional representatives—will not contain any citizenship data. Instead, the bureau will create a separate micro-data file, or MDF, with the best citizenship estimate associated with each census respondent.

That micro-data file, along with the Census Edited File—an updated version of the CUF that corrects and backfills missing information—will be put through the 2020 Disclosure Avoidance System, “which will do the final record linkage and place a confidentiality protected citizenship variable on the same MDF as will be used to produce the redistricting data,” according to the documents.

While the citizenship status of individuals will not be made public, Census will be publishing CVAP tables that break down citizenship estimates at the block level—the most granular level of census data. Those tables are scheduled for release by March 31, 2021.

However, keeping that amount of public data anonymized is no simple thing. With surprisingly few bits of correlated data, a once-anonymous person can easily be identified. This becomes much easier when coupled with information publicly available on the internet, such as social media profiles.

To prevent criminals and other malicious actors from reverse engineering identities, Census is employing a new disclosure avoidance system for all 2020 census data shared publicly.

“Our decision to deploy a modernized disclosure avoidance system for the 2020 census was driven by research showing that methods we used to protect the 2010 census and earlier statistics can no longer adequately defend against today’s privacy threats,” John Abowd, Census’ associate director for research and methodology and chief scientist, and Victoria Velkoff, chief of the American Community Survey Office, wrote in an October 2019 blog post explaining the new system developed by cryptographers and data scientists.

The new differential privacy system injects “noise” into the datasets by using an algorithm that makes targeted changes to the data to prevent outside actors—malicious or otherwise—from reverse engineering identities.

Census has been using various forms of differential privacy—also known as formal privacy—since 2008, though never at the scale it will be used for on 2020 census data. In the past, Census only added uncertainty to select statistics with a high risk for deanonymization to avoid adding so much noise that the statistics become unreliable.

For the coming count, uncertainty will be added to entire published datasets using state-of-the-art mathematical models.

“The new method allows us to precisely control the amount of uncertainty that we add according to privacy requirements,” Abowd and Velkoff wrote. “And, by documenting the properties of this uncertainty, we can help data users determine if published estimates are sufficiently accurate for their specific applications. In this manner, we can determine the data’s ‘fitness for use.’”

With the public datasets anonymized, it will be up to Census to protect the raw data.

While the disclosure avoidance system is designed to ensure personal data remains anonymous, Robert Groves, provost of Georgetown University, who led the Census Bureau during the 2010 decennial count, said two things will ensure the raw, nonanonymized database is never used to target individuals: law and culture.

Groves, in an interview with Nextgov after reviewing the documents, cited a legal provision known as “functional separation.”

“Once you enter a statistical agency environment, it’s a one-way street,” he explained. “As soon as that Homeland Security dataset enters behind the firewall of Census, the laws of Census apply. It’s no longer a Homeland Security dataset, in a sense. It is controlled by the Census Bureau. And, under the Title 13 law, it is absolutely crystal clear that the combined dataset never exits Census with individual person records on it. Only statistics can exit.”

That protection extends to the highest levels.

“Even if it’s requested by the president, it’s absolutely illegal,” Groves confirmed when asked. “And even if it were an executive order directing Census to do this, the statute would trump the order.”

Beyond the law, Groves said the culture of statisticians and public servants working at the Census Bureau would make it almost impossible for the data to leak out unnoticed.

“If there’s anything I believe most strongly, it’s if there’s any illegal act that is proposed or promulgated, the staff at the Census Bureau would call [reporters] within 30 seconds. They are devoted to supplying the country statistical information under the law,” he said, adding that that devotion is rooted in necessity.

“The reason those laws exist is if individual records were freely given for enforcement procedures from the decennial census, then the cooperation from the public with the census is decimated,” Groves said. “These statistical agencies work with a social confidence—a trust with the public that the laws will be followed—and the laws were established to enhance that trust.”

Estimating Citizenship

While the Census Bureau won’t be able to ask each individual in the U.S. about their citizenship status, leveraging access to data held by other agencies will enable statisticians to match census respondents with information they have shared with the government to build a “best citizenship” estimate for each individual.

The bureau has been working on the algorithm to produce that estimate since April 2018 and planned to finalize the “final specifications and modeling details” before the end of March, according to an internal document.

The bureau did not respond to repeated requests for comments and updates on the status of that work or a comprehensive breakdown of which federal databases are actively being shared for this work.

However, the document offers a look into the main databases being used and the additional data sources most likely to be tapped.

Bureau officials believe about 90% of the U.S. population will be covered by data from two sources: the Social Security Administration’s Numerical Identification System, or Numident, which stores Social Security numbers; and, the IRS’ Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers, or ITINs, which are used as a substitute for those without Social Security numbers. Approximately 94% of SSN records include citizenship information.

However, if officials determine these sources are not sufficient, agencies control a host of other datasets that could be added to the mix, including databases managed by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the departments of State and Housing and Urban Development, and Homeland Security Department components like U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

In the briefing document, Census officials said additional data from Homeland Security, State and other departments “are expected to provide the [personally identifiable information] that enables record linkage for much of the balance of the resident population.” However, that comes with a caveat: “Provided that the PII on the 2020 Census is as reliable as it was in 2010.”

DHS released a privacy impact statement in December outlining how it would share information with Census, though bureau officials did not respond to requests for confirmation that the DHS databases have been accessed or integrated into the citizenship estimates.

That data will be quantified using the finalized algorithm to produce a best estimate for citizenship.

“For a single person, they’ll collect multiple data sources on citizenship. Inevitably, those sources won’t agree. Then, the question is what do you do to estimate the best response for citizenship for that particular person. They will estimate that with modeling across the various databases,” Groves said. “They’ll also use the same sort of model if, despite all their efforts, for you they can’t find a record that you’re a citizen or you’re not a citizen, they will impute your citizenship to that model.”

Groves said we won’t know how accurate those estimates are until well after the fact.

“No one’s ever done this before,” he said. “No one, at this point, I think it’s fair to say, knows what the quality of the resulting estimates will be. We just don’t know that. We’ll know it after this, through evaluation studies. But this is just a good-faith statistical effort.”

“Unfortunately, we don’t have a lot of track record on this,” he added. “These datasets, to my knowledge, have never been assembled the way they’re trying to assemble them.”

Source: How Census Is Building a Citizenship Database Covering Everyone Living in the U.S.

Some U.S. religious leaders flout COVID-19 restrictions

Unfortunately, not that surprising among some evangelical groups:

School buses delivered hundreds of church-goers to Life Tabernacle Church in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Sunday, defying physical-distancing guidelines and the state governor’s direct order banning gatherings of more than 10 people.

Religious service, steeped as it is in community, is one area where people are finding it hard to avoid gathering amid the COVID-19 pandemic. And while some churches in the U.S. are finding innovative ways to continue services, such as conducting them virtually, a few are still gathering in person, potentially exposing many people to the novel coronavirus.

South Korea has experience with the danger of public worship services: More than half of the country’s coronavirus cases were linked to the branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu.

But Life Tabernacle is flouting officials’ pleas in a state where, as of Monday afternoon, more than 4,000 have been infected and 185 have died, according to an ongoing tally by Johns Hopkins University.Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, on March 22 ordered a lockdown of all but essential services, which did not include religious worship services, and prohibited gatherings of more than 10 people.The father of Life Tabernacle’s pastor Tony Spell says the church is an essential service.

“The church is not a non-essential. The church is the most essential thing in all the world,” Timothy Spell told NBC News outside the church Sunday.

“No one is telling anybody you got to come to church. We tell people not to come if you have a fever, if you have any symptoms, if you’re aged, if you’re elderly, don’t come.”

Florida pastor arrested

That’s got local residents like Ryan Tregre fuming.

“If they really worried about just spreading the [spiritual] word, they would go on Facebook Live or YouTube or some kind of way to spread the word where they would not have to go and meet in places and spread this virus that’s killing people every day,” he told NBC.Life Tabernacle wasn’t the only church to defy public orders and open their doors to parishioners on Sunday.A video posted to the Facebook page of the River at Tampa Bay Pentecostal church in Florida on Sunday shows hundreds of parishioners standing side by side.

Rev. Rodney Howard-Browne has said he would close services only for the Rapture and that shutdowns were for “pansies.” He reportedly held two services Sunday, flying in the face of physical-distancing guidelines and attracting the attention of the local sheriff’s department.

Florida has not ordered a statewide shutdown of non-essential businesses, but on Monday the Hillsborough County Sheriff charged him with unlawful assembly and a violation of health emergency rules.

Canadian clergy urge compliance

It’s a different story in Canada.

A statement released by religious leaders across Canada on Monday urged people to follow public health officials’ guidelines.David Guretzki, vice-president of the Evangelical Fellowship of Canada said there were no evangelical services that he knew of this past weekend and noted his group has signed on to statement.Still, members of all faiths are grappling with how to continue practicing.

Some mosques in the Toronto have stayed open after Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a province-wide state of emergency March 17.

In Montreal, police were called to a synagogue after receiving a report that someone saw Hasidic men going inside, CTV reported.

Social distancing measures like working from home, school closures and cancelling sporting events could lead to a drop of new infections of coronavirus. 1:54

“Some wonder if this is too much, too fast, but in general the approach has been that, no, the best approach is just to shut down,” said Daniel Cere, an associate professor of Religion, Law and Public Policy at McGill University in Montreal.

“My impression is that on the whole, in Canada, the religious communities have fallen in line with the government on this.”

‘God will take care of your body’

One religious scholar in the U.S. attributes the defiance to a particular type of Christian teaching.

“There is this strand in modern American Christianity that has rejected the norms of science and medicine and that thinks health can be achieved through discourse with the divine, holy spirit,” said Bradley Storin, director of religious studies at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge.

The philosophy is, he says: “If you are a good and true believer then God will take care of your body.”

He’s noted the church busing people in for services and passing out “anointed” handkerchiefs to people for protection.

“What we see pastor Spell doing is giving way to this ancient tradition of linking faith in God with healing in the body,” said Storin.

“It feels a little violative of the social compact that we have right now,” said Storin.

Source: Some U.S. religious leaders flout COVID-19 restrictions

And meanwhile, in Egypt:

For 55-year-old Coptic housewife Magda Mounir, knowing she can no longer pray at her local church is worse than all the precautions she has had to endure to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus in Egypt.

“The church is our haven; it is where we go to find moral support,” Mounir told Al-Monitor a few days after Egypt closed all places of worship, including mosques and churches.

The Ministry of Religious Endowments, more often referred to as the Awqaf Ministry, and Egypt’s Orthodox Christian Church both released statements March 21 announcing they would temporarily halt communal prayers.

Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Church, to which the majority of Egypt’s Christians belong, said it would lock down churches and suspend masses for at least two weeks.

In multicultural and multifaith Egypt, Christians make up roughly 10% of the country’s 100 million-plus population, with the vast majority of Christians in Egypt belonging to the Coptic Orthodox Church.

“The holy week is coming, and we used to spend these days in the church. It seems this year we will not be able to do so for the first time in our lives,” Mounir said tearfully, referring to the Easter holiday on April 19.

Sandy Emad, a 27-year-old engineer, supports the ministry’s decision. “I support the decision [to close places of worship], and I can’t understand the anger of some people,” she told Al-Monitor. “We can’t kill ourselves and our families and say God will rescue us. God gave us brains to use and protect ourselves from any harm. This is what he ordered us to do,” Emad said.

“This decision is considered the most difficult decision the church has made in decades,” admitted Bishop Boules Boutros of St. Michael Church in the district of Heliopolis in Cairo. “However, it is necessary for slowing down the rapid spread of the coronavirus. God does not only exist in churches; we all have him in our hearts and can pray to him to heal the whole world,” Boutros said.

Boutros said he was not sure just how long the churches would remain closed, but it was unlikely they would be opened in time for Easter mass.

Egypt’s Awqaf Ministry decided to suspend congressional Friday prayers in all mosques nationwide until further notice. The suspension came after controversy erupted over Muslim worshippers insisting on flocking to mosques for Friday’s noon prayers despite a religious edict allowing people to pray at home due to the coronavirus pandemic.

“If it was necessary to shut mosques because of the crowd, why not close down the underground, which carries thousands every day?” Mohamed Abdel Monem, a 45-year-old Arabic teacher, said to Al-Monitor. “Now is the time most people need to resort to God and pray. Praying to God is our only way out of this ordeal,” he added.

But not everyone shares his views. Hassan Khaled, a 28-year-old graphic designer, agreed with the decision to shutter holy places. “Given that people insisted on going to the mosques despite the call to stay home, it is a wise decision to close down mosques,” he said. “If only one person is carrying the virus, thousands will be infected, and then they go home to infect their families,” Khaled added.

Khaled said while it is difficult to be deprived of places of worship during times like these, he also understands it is necessary for public health. “I imagine people will resort to praying in open areas if [prayers in mosques] continue to be banned,” he said.

Religion plays a major role in Egyptian society, so statements by religious authorities carry major weight on keeping people at home. Dar al-Ifta, Egypt’s body responsible for issuing religious edicts, issued March 24 a brief statement warning that “any call for people to gather in the streets in any pretext or under a slogan” would be sinful as it would jeopardize public health.

The statement stressed it is a “duty” under Sharia law to comply with official decisions to “protect people from epidemics and diseases.”

The Awqaf Ministry also modified the adhan — the Muslim call to prayer — to include warnings to stay at home and take precautions on preventing the spread of the coronavirus. The new adhan, broadcast on radio and television a day after religious sites were closed, urges believers to take “the utmost caution in adhering to preventive and precautionary” measures.

Islamic scholars say the special adhan was previously used during natural disasters and pandemics as well as in earlier times in Islam’s history when people were instructed to perform prayers at home.

Meanwhile, Minister of Endowments Muhammad Mukhtar Juma suspended on March 22 an imam and a preacher in Beni Suef governorate, south of Cairo, for violating the ministry’s order to close mosques. The two men were banned from giving sermons from the pulpit for a period of three months.

“Preserving life is a main aspect of Islam, and the faithful should comply with preventive measures taken by the government,” Sheikh Mohammed Mehana of Al-Azhar University told Al-Monitor.

“The images of empty mosques would break any Muslim’s heart, but the priority now is to save people’s lives. This is what Allah asked us to do, and the rest is his will,” said Mehana, adding he hoped the crisis would end before the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which starts on April 24 and goes until May 23, and that everybody would reunite for Taraweeh, the additional prayers carried out at night during Ramadan.

The Ministry of Health has reported some 609 cases of coronavirus and 40 deaths in Egypt so far.

A 7 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew has been imposed countrywide as part of strict measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus, Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly said March 23.

All masses as well as public and private transport are suspended during the curfew.

Source: Egypt Egyptians feel demoralized by empty churches, mosques