The Census Bureau sees an older, more diverse America in 2100 in three immigration scenarios

2023/11/11 Leave a comment

Of note:

By the end of the century, the U.S. population will be declining without substantial immigration, older adults will outnumber children and white, non- Hispanic residents will account for less than 50% of the population, according to projections released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau. 

The population projections offer a glimpse of what the nation may look like at the turn of the next century, though a forecast decades into the future can’t predict the unexpected like a global pandemic. 

The projections can help the U.S. prepare for change, from anticipating the demands of health care for seniors to providing insight into the number of schools that need to be built over the coming decades, said Paul Ong, a public affairs professor at UCLA.

“As most demographers realize, population projection is not an inevitable destiny, just a glimpse into a possible future,” Ong said. “Seeing that possibility also opens up opportunities for action.”

Population changes due to births and deaths, which are more predictable, and immigration, which is more uncertain. Because of that, the Census Bureau offers three different projections through 2100 based on high, medium and low immigration.

Under the low-immigration scenario, the U.S. population shrinks to 319 million people by 2100 from the current population of 333 million residents. It grows to 365 million people at the end of the century under the medium immigration scenario and to 435 million residents with high immigration. In each immigration scenario, the country is on track to become older and more diverse. 

Americans of college age and younger are already part of a majority-minority cohort.

Aliana Mediratta, a 20-year-old student at Washington University in St. Louis, welcomes a future with a more diverse population and believes immigration “is great for our society and our economy.”

But that optimism is tempered by existential worries that things seem to be getting worse, including climate change and gun violence.

“I feel like I have to be optimistic about the future since, if I’m pessimistic, it disables me from doing things that I want to do, that are hard, but morally right to do,” Mediratta said.

Here’s a look at how the U.S. population is expected to change through 2100, using the medium immigration scenario.

2020s

By 2029, older adults will outnumber children, with 71 million U.S. residents aged 65 and older and 69 million residents under age 18.

The numeric superiority of seniors will mean fewer workers. Combined with children, they’ll represent 40% of the population. Only around 60% of the population that is of working age — between 18 and 64 — will be paying the bulk of taxes for Social Security and Medicare.

2030s

“Natural increase” in the U.S. will go negative in 2038, meaning deaths outpacing births due to an aging population and declines in fertility. The Census projects 13,000 more deaths than births in the U.S., and that shortfall grows to 1.2 million more deaths than births by 2100.

2050s

By 2050, the share of the U.S. population that is white and not Hispanic will be under 50% for the first time.

Currently, 58.9% of U.S. residents are white and not Hispanic. By 2050, Hispanic residents will account for a quarter of the U.S. population, up from 19.1% today. African Americans will make up 14.4% of the population, up from 13.6% currently. Asians will account for 8.6% of the population, up from 6.2% today.

Also in the 2050s, Asians will surpass Hispanics as the largest group of immigrants by race or ethnicity.

2060s

The increasing diversity of the nation will be most noticeable in children. By the 2060s, non-Hispanic white children will be a third of the population under age 18, compared to under half currently.

2080s

Under that medium immigration scenario, the U.S. population peaks at more than 369 million residents in 2081. After that, the Census Bureau predicts a slight population decline, with deaths outpacing births and immigration. 

2090s

By the end of the 2090s, the foreign population will make up almost 19.5% of U.S. residents, the highest share since the Census Bureau started keeping track in 1850. The highest rate previously was 14.8% in 1890. It currently is 13.9%.

FOREIGN BORN AND IMMIGRATION

Experts say that predicting immigration trends is more difficult than in the past when migration was tightly linked to the pull of economic opportunity in the U.S. 

When immigration is instead driven by the push of climate change, social tensions exacerbated by authoritarian rulers and gangs, as well as fluctuating anti-immigrant sentiment in the U.S., it is harder to predict, said Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology and American Studies & Ethnicity at the University of Southern California.

“In the past we would say we get immigration from economics, and you can make some reasonable projections,” Pastor said. “Now, we have these push pressures for people to come to the U.S., and we have a further racialized reaction to migration, we have a much wider band or error, or the potential to make mistakes.”

RELIABILITY

How reliable will the numbers be, especially as race and ethnic definitions change, and immigration levels are hard to predict?

While there is an extreme level of uncertainty projecting almost eight decades into the future, it is a good starting point, said Ong, the UCLA professor.

“Over 80 years, birth and death rates, fertility rates and migration rates can be changed through policies, programs and resources,” Ong said.

Mediratta, the college student, imagines that 20-year-olds like her two centuries ago were also concerned about the future, but they didn’t have TikTok or Instagram to amplify their worries. 

“It seems like things are bad all the time,” Mediratta said. “I feel that things were probably bad all the time 200 years ago, but nobody could tell everyone about it.”

Source: The Census Bureau sees an older, more diverse America in 2100 in three immigration scenarios

Filed under Immigration, Multiculturalism Tagged with , ,

Les baby-boomers du Québec ne sont pas «pure laine» à 95%

2023/04/26 Leave a comment

Of note:

Selon M. Charles Gaudreault, ingénieur chez H2O Innovation, il faudrait s’attendre à un effondrement de la population québécoise d’« origine ethnique française » allant jusqu’à 45 % en 2050. Préoccupé par l’impact de l’immigration sur les populations des pays d’accueil comme le Canada et ses provinces, il n’a élaboré qu’un seul scénario pour couvrir huit décennies dans la revue Nations and Nationalism.

Ses inspirations lui viennent d’abord du Britannique David Coleman, pour qui « la population britannique blanche devrait tomber à moins de 56 % de la population du Royaume-Uni en 2056 ». Elles proviennent aussi des Américains James Smith et Barry Edmonston, qui ont prévu que la population blanche des États-Unis — à l’exclusion des Hispaniques — ne compterait plus que pour 51 % en 2050.
 
Considérant à tort que le recensement de 1971 offre les données les plus sûres sur l’origine ethnique, M. Gaudreault a effectué sa projection à partir d’un Québec dénombrant 6 millions d’habitants. À cette époque, les Québécois d’origine ethnique française comptaient pour 79 % de la population. Ne restent alors que 21 % pour englober toutes les autres origines, notamment les Premières Nations, les Britanniques, les communautés italiennes et grecques.

Pour justifier son choix, Gaudreault se base sur deux sources dont il a pris connaissance de manière distraite. D’une part, il prétend devoir faire un retour à « la démographie ethnique » après que « les démographes se [sont] tournés vers la démographie linguistique ». D’autre part, il s’appuie sur une étude généalogique d’un groupe de chercheurs sous la direction d’Hélène Vézina.

Il est faux d’affirmer qu’une « démographie ethnique » a déjà existé. S’il y a eu jadis rapprochement entre l’origine ethnique et la langue maternelle, c’était par intérêt pour cette dernière. Richard Arès n’a-t-il pas fait remarquer que « plus on va vers l’ouest, plus les chances du français s’effritent » chez les Canadiens français ?

Ensuite, affirmer « que les ancêtres des baby-boomers étaient à 95 % d’origine française », c’est confondre l’origine ethnique des personnes recensées en 1971 avec 2000 généalogies « contenant plus de cinq millions de mentions d’ancêtres », dont la plupart sont arrivés au XVIIe siècle, prenant ainsi une avance jugée « insurmontable ».

M. Gaudreault a ventilé ses résultats en trois classes étanches, plutôt que de les rendre perméables les unes aux autres, comme chez les démographes. Il y a d’abord les Canadiens français (Ethnic French Canadians). Ensuite, les Autochtones, les Britanniques et tous les autres groupes ethniques recensés en 1971 sont identifiés sous l’appellation Non French Canadians. Enfin, tous les immigrants arrivés depuis 1971, leurs enfants et leurs descendants forment une classe à part (Immigrants and Descendants – IAD).

Notons que le troisième groupe (IAD) réunit tous les immigrants originaires de pays francophones (France, Sénégal, Vietnam, Haïti, etc.) ainsi que tous les enfants que la loi 101 conduit, depuis 1977, dans nos écoles françaises ! Partant donc de zéro en 1971, les effectifs de ce groupe sont les seuls à augmenter sous l’effet de l’immigration. Les deux premiers groupes ne peuvent qu’être marginalisés avec le temps.

Le talon d’Achille : la rétroprojection

La partie rétrospective appartenant déjà à l’histoire, nous avons évalué les résultats de M. Gaudreault pour le groupe IAD à partir des faits démographiques observés entre 1971 et 2001.

Charles Gaudreault affirme que « la sous-population des IAD affiche une augmentation constante, de 0,8 million en 2000, à 2 millions en 2020, à 3 millions en 2035, puis à 4,1 millions en 2050 ». Cette suite de résultats dessine une équation mathématique qui ne tient pas compte des fluctuations de l’immigration. Au départ, il y a une sous-estimation de 29 % (1971-1976), suivie d’une surestimation de 24 % (1977-1988), et ainsi de suite.

Au recensement de 2001, on a dénombré au Québec 510 100 personnes immigrées arrivées durant les trois dernières décennies du XXe siècle. Parmi ces personnes, on comptait 150 800 femmes en âge d’avoir des enfants en 2001. Tous calculs faits, parmi ces Québécois recensés en 2001, nous avons estimé que 118 500 personnes âgées de 30 ans ou moins étaient issues des immigrantes de cette époque.

Selon nos calculs, la somme des immigrés de la période 1971-2001 et de leurs descendants n’est que de 617 000 personnes au lieu des 860 000 obtenues selon la projection de Charles Gaudreault. Force est de reconnaître qu’il y a surestimation de 243 000 personnes du groupe IAD. En pourcentage, cette surestimation est très importante : 39,5 % !

La partie rétroactive de la projection de Charles Gaudreault conduit à une proportion d’Ethnic French Canadians de 64,5 % en 2014. Puisque nos calculs donnent une proportion de 71,2 % pour une sous-estimation de près de 7 points, le maintien des mêmes hypothèses jusqu’en 2050 ne peut que produire, après 35 ans, des résultats sans commune mesure avec les données historiques probantes.

Source: Les baby-boomers du Québec ne sont pas «pure laine» à 95%

Filed under Interculturalisme, Multiculturalism Tagged with , , ,

Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories, 2018 to 2068

2019/09/18 Leave a comment

The immigration effect, largely based upon assumptions that the current rate of about .83 percent of the population would continue (for the detailed paper on their immigration expert consultations and analysis, see Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories : Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions, 2018 to 2068):

Today, Statistics Canada looks to the future with the release of a new edition of population projections for Canada, the provinces and the territories.

Population projections investigate how the Canadian population might evolve in the years ahead. Statistics Canada publishes several scenarios to highlight the uncertain nature of population projections, making it clear that the future is not yet defined.

Readers can now access the publications Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043), Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions, as well as the new infographic “What will the population of Canada look like in 2068?”

55 million Canadians by 2068?

While the populations of many developed countries are expected to decrease, Canada’s population is projected to grow over the next 50 years, largely because of strong immigration.

Population growth, however, is likely to vary across the country, with the population of some provinces and territories increasing and others decreasing. As a result, the provinces and territories may experience diverse opportunities and challenges over the coming decades.

The Canadian population has grown substantially in recent years, increasing from 30.7 million people in 2000 to 37.1 million in 2018.

The projections show that growth would continue in Canada over the next 50 years, and that the population could reach between 44.4 million and 70.2 million inhabitants by 2068. In the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would grow from 37.1 million inhabitants in 2018 to 55.2 million by 2068.

According to the low- and medium-growth scenarios, the rate of population growth would slow in the coming years, owing mainly to an increasing number of deaths relative to births. The expected increase in the number of deaths is mainly related to population aging.

In all scenarios, immigration would remain the key driver of population growth over the next 50 years, as has been the case since the early 1990s.

Increasing share of people aged 65 and older, decreasing share of the working-age population

According to all scenarios, Canada’s population would continue to become older in the coming years at both the national and the provincial and territorial levels.

Over the next two decades in particular, the proportion of people aged 65 and older in the population would grow rapidly as the large baby-boom cohort (those born between 1946 and 1965) reaches age 65. This transition could affect Canadian society in various ways, placing additional pressure on pension and health care systems and decreasing the share of the working-age population.

By 2068, the proportion of the population aged 65 and older would reach between 21.4% and 29.5%, depending on the scenario. In comparison, 17.2% of Canadians were aged 65 and over in 2018.

During the same period, the share of the working-age population—that is, people aged 15 to 64, most of whom are in the labour force—would decrease according to all projection scenarios, from 66.7% in 2018 to between 57.9% and 61.4% in 2068.

Centenarians: The fastest-growing age group

By 2068, the number of Canadians aged 80 and older would reach 5.5 million according to the medium-growth scenario, compared with 1.6 million in 2018.

Driven by the baby boomers reaching age 100 and increasing life expectancy, the number of centenarians (people who are aged 100 or older) in Canada would peak at 90,200 people in 2065 according to the medium-growth scenario, compared with 10,000 people in 2018.

As a result, centenarians would be the fastest-growing age group between 2018 and 2068. However, they would remain a very small share of the total population (0.2% or less in all projection scenarios).

Ontario and Alberta would make up more than half of Canada’s projected population growth between 2018 and 2068

According to all projection scenarios, the population of Ontario would increase over the next 25 years, reaching between 16.5 million and 20.4 million inhabitants by 2043. Ontario would remain the most populous province according to all scenarios.

In all scenarios, the rate of population growth in Alberta would be the highest among Canadian provinces over the next 25 years. By 2043, Alberta’s population would number between 6.0 million and 7.3 million inhabitants depending on the scenario, compared with 4.3 million in 2018.

Together, Alberta and Ontario would account for more than half of Canada’s projected growth between 2018 and 2043 in all scenarios.

Alberta’s population could surpass that of British Columbia by 2043 according to almost all scenarios. The other Prairie provinces would also see considerable growth over the next 25 years: by 2043, the combined population of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta would be slightly larger than Quebec’s population in all projection scenarios.

The rate of population growth in Quebec would remain lower than that of Canada in most scenarios. As a result, Quebec’s share of the total Canadian population could decrease from 22.6% in 2018 to between 20.1% and 20.6% by 2043.

A similar phenomenon would occur in the Atlantic provinces. Low—and, in some scenarios, negative—growth rates would cause the populations of the Atlantic provinces to represent either a stable or a decreasing share of the Canadian population by 2043.

While the population of the three territories would increase in all projection scenarios, its share of the total Canadian population would remain stable, at 0.3% between 2018 and 2043.

Large regional differences in population aging

While population aging would continue to occur in all parts of the country, there would be considerable variation in the pace and degree of aging among the provinces and territories.

In 2043, the proportion of seniors aged 65 and older would be lower than the national average in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, varying between 16.5% and 21.8% depending on the scenario.

In contrast, the Atlantic provinces would have the largest proportion of those aged 65 and older in the country, with this proportion surpassing 30% for Newfoundland and Labrador in all scenarios.

In 2043, the populations of the territories are projected to remain the youngest populations in Canada according to all scenarios. The proportion of seniors aged 65 and older would not exceed 9.4% in Nunavut or 17.0% in the Northwest Territories.

Summary

Population projections provide an opportunity to think about changes that the country will probably experience in the future. According to these new projections, the Canadian population would continue to increase over the next 50 years. However, growth rates would vary considerably among the provinces and territories, and some could experience population decrease. Population aging is projected to remain a prominent and inevitable feature of population change in Canada in the coming years. These demographic changes will alter the composition and distribution of the Canadian population, and are therefore likely to have economic, political and social consequences.

Source: Population projections: Canada, provinces and territories , 2018 to 2068 

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Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036

2017/01/26 Leave a comment

sc-2036-vismin-002While I expect most of my readers will have seen the media reports on the latest population projections and will be familiar with the trends, here is the StatsCan summary of their findings.

One of the more striking findings is the likelihood that despite federal and provincial efforts to diversify where immigrants choose to settle and remain, relatively little change is seen from the current concentration in the major census metropolitan areas.

And as is currently the case, Montreal is likely to remain less diverse in terms of immigrants and visible minorities compared not only to Toronto and Vancouver but also Calgary and Winnipeg.

The other finding is the large increase in the number of second generation immigrants, where one in five is expected to be in 2036.

The full report is worth reading given the range of detailed information it provides even if, like all scenarios and projections, a note of caution is required.

And overall, given these trends, it is even more important to ensure that we get our immigration, citizenship and multiculturalism policies right to ensure our continued relative success in integrating newcomers and their children into Canadian society.

Immigrant and second-generation populations

  • Based on the projection scenarios used, immigrants would represent between 24.5% and 30.0% of Canada’s population in 2036, compared with 20.7% in 2011. These would be the highest proportions since 1871.
  • In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of Canada’s immigrant population could have been born in Asia, up from 44.8% estimated in 2011, while between 15.4% and 17.8% could have been born in Europe, down from 31.6% in 2011.
  • The proportion of the second-generation population, i.e., non‑immigrants with at least one parent born abroad, within the total Canadian population would also increase. In 2036, nearly one in five people would be of second generation, compared with 17.5% in 2011.
  • Together, immigrants and second-generation individuals could represent nearly one person in two (between 44.2% and 49.7%) in 2036, up from 2011 (38.2%).

Languages

  • According to all scenarios used for these projections, the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French would be up and could account for between 26.1% and 30.6% of Canada’s population in 2036, versus 20.0% in 2011.
  • As in 2011, immigrants would make up the majority—close to 70% in all scenarios—of the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. However, close to 40% of these other-mother-tongue immigrants would have adopted English or French as the language spoken most often at home, either alone or with other languages.

Visible minority status

  • According to the results of these projections, in 2036, among the working-age population (15 to 64 years), of special interest for the application of the Employment Equity Act, between 34.7% and 39.9% could belong to a visible minority group, compared with 19.6% in 2011.
  • In all the projection scenarios, South Asian would still be the main visible minority group in 2036, followed by the Chinese. However, the most rapidly growing groups would be the Arab, Filipino and West Asian groups, given that they represent a higher proportion in the immigrant population than in the population as a whole.

Religion

  • The proportion of people who report having no religion in the total population would continue to increase, and could represent between 28.2% and 34.6% in 2036 (compared with 24.0% in 2011). This proportion would be similar to Catholics (between 29.2% and 32.8% in 2036, down from 2011 [38.8%]). In 2036, Catholicism would remain the religion with the largest number of followers.
  • The number of people affiliated with non-Christian religions could almost double by 2036 and could represent between 13% and 16% of Canada’s population, compared with 9% in 2011. The Muslim, Hindu and Sikh faiths, which are over-represented among immigrants compared to their demographic weight in the population as a whole, would see the number of their followers grow more quickly, even if it would continue to represent a modest share of the total Canadian population.

Regional analysis

  • The results of the different scenarios show that in all provinces and territories, the number and the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase between 2011 and 2036.
  • Based on all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the estimate in 2011. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a census metropolitan area (CMA). The three primary areas of residence for immigrants would remain Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%), Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%).
  • According to all the scenarios for these projections, more than one in two people in 2036 would be an immigrant or the child of an immigrant in Toronto (between 77.0% and 81.4%), Vancouver (between 69.4% and 74.0%), Calgary (between 56.2% and 63.3%) and Abbotsford – Mission (between 52.5% and 57.4%). In 2011, the corresponding proportions were 74.1% in Toronto, 65.6% in Vancouver, 48.0% in Calgary and 49.7% in Abbotsford – Mission.
  • The results of the projections show that the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) who belong to a visible minority group would increase in all areas of the country, in all the scenarios. This proportion would surpass 40% in Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Abbotsford – Mission. It would remain lower in non-metropolitan areas.
  • The results of the projections indicate that religious diversity would be up in all areas considered by 2036. The increase would be more substantial in areas that were the most homogeneous in 2011, i.e., Quebec (excluding Montréal) and in the Atlantic provinces, primarily because of the rise in the proportion of people who reported having no religion.
  • The most religiously diverse areas in 2011 would remain as such in 2036. Among them, Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton, which had a large proportion of immigrants among their population in 2011, would continue to be diverse, in particular as a result of the increase in the proportion of persons reporting a non-Christian religion.

Source: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036

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