Long form census: Duelling backbencher bills revive House debate

2015/02/04 Leave a comment

Continued triumph of ideology over reason, the Government’s refusal to reinstate the mandatory census:

The response rate for the 2006 long-form census was 93.5 per cent, compared with 68.6 per cent for the voluntary National Household Survey that replaced it in 2011.

Statistics Canada withheld information on thousands of smaller Canadian communities because the information was unreliable.

The census tract of Elgin, in Preston’s southwestern Ontario riding, had a non-response rate of 26.1 per cent for the National Household Survey.

Critics say the problems with the data are compounded by the fact that the survey results cannot be compared with the results from the mandatory censuses going back many decades.

Hsu said filling out the census forms is a civic duty, just as Canadians have a duty to pay their income taxes.

“The fight over this bill is a fight over the soul of this country,” Hsu told MPs last week.

“It is a fight over whether Canadians should collect information about ourselves so that we may have solid evidence with which to govern ourselves wisely.”

Long form census: Duelling backbencher bills revive House debate – Politics – CBC News.

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Damage from cancelled census as bad as feared, researchers say

2015/01/30 Leave a comment

The impact of an ideologically motivated decision, impacting both social research (the intended target, as suggested by Paul Wells in his book The Longer I’m Prime Minister) as well as the business community and municipalities who use census data for planning purposes (e.g., store and school locations):

“It has certainly impacted my own work on what has been happening to middle-class earnings in Canada,” says Charles Beach, professor emeritus of economics at Queen’s University.

More broadly, it has “inhibited research into inequality and identifying winners and losers in economic growth, research into understanding the national problems of the have-nots in the economy, and research into how best to provision local government services.”

In the private sector, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, whose network represents 200,000 businesses across the country, is publicly calling on the federal government to restore the mandatory long-form census.

Some researchers – such as those working on a sweeping long-term study on income polarization in Canadian cities – are choosing to abandon using the NHS altogether. They may be settling for less-detailed tax-filer data, while others, such as some public health units, are still using outdated 2006 census data.

In Canada’s largest city, “it has definitely had an impact in the way we plan for services” for people such as seniors, single parents, youth and immigrants, says Harvey Low, manager of social research at the City of Toronto. “We are less sure ” about the characteristics of people served in communities.

Damage from cancelled census as bad as feared, researchers say – The Globe and Mail.

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Ending mandatory long-form census has hurt Canada – Globe Editorial

2014/11/08 Leave a comment

The Globe on the ideologically driven decision to cancel the Census and the private member bill to restore it:

The warnings were prophetic. The compulsory long-form census in 2006 had a 93.5 per cent response rate. The voluntary one in 2011 had a 68.6 per cent response rate, even though more surveys were sent to more homes. When the 2011 data were released, they came with prominent warnings about contamination due to “higher non-response error.” Information gathered about more than one quarter of all Canadian communities wasn’t released because too few people in those places filled out the voluntary form. Aboriginal communities were particularly underrepresented.

Think-tanks, economists, scientists and academics in Canada and around the world have dismissed the 2011 data as fatally flawed. It can’t be compared in a meaningful way with the 2006 data, because they were gathered using different methodologies. Vital research projects on issues like income, unemployment and poverty that require long-term data have been compromised. And Statistics Canada can’t provide an accurate picture of how Canadians are faring, relative to 2006, since the 2008 economic crash.

Statisticians are statisticians so we don’t have to be. If they say they need accurate, regular, comparable census, then that’s what they should get from the government. Mr. Hsu’s bill may be doomed, but it will go down fighting to reverse a decision that has harmed the country in tangible ways.

Ending mandatory long-form census has hurt Canada – The Globe and Mail.

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Policy making suffering in Canada without the long-form census

2014/11/07 Leave a comment

Unfortunately, the Government will not take advice to reinstate the Census:

Perhaps the biggest casualty of the switch to the new survey is the ability to analyze trends over time – among the most critical components of any research tool. The household survey and the long-form census are so different that we are no longer able to compare different periods in a statistically rigorous way.

We see nothing wrong in requiring Canadians by law to complete a survey as important as this one. Even in the U.S., where trust in government is not exactly high, the American Community Survey is mandatory. The authorities have reasoned – and few citizens have objected – that a mandatory response is the only way to ensure adequate data quality.

If the government in Ottawa can be persuaded to bring back the mandatory long-form survey for the next census, due in 2016, we will have a gap of 10 years since the last such exercise.

That may not be ideal, but it would be acceptable. The full census was conducted at 10-year intervals prior to the introduction of the current five-year cycle in 1986. Indeed, a 10-year break would be less disruptive than continuing with the new household survey, which leaves us with a complete break in historical data.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said recently that “you can’t manage what you can’t measure.” His comments were made in the context of child and maternal health, but they apply equally to other areas of policy making, and drive better performance in business planning and economic analysis.

My experience in working with the NHS and in talking to those more experienced than me, confirms these weaknesses of the NHS compared to the Census.

A short-sighted and ideological move that weakens evidence-based policy for governments and needed information for business decisions.

Policy making suffering in Canada without the long-form census – The Globe and Mail.

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