Saunders: Mexico and Canada fell apart over migration. Could it bring us back together?

2025/06/12 Leave a comment

While regular pathways for workers are preferable to irregular ones, don’t think eliminating visitor visa requirements is the right way to go. Invites perceived abuse and thus contributes to less support for immigration compared to work visas (which of course can also be abused):

…Mr. Carney’s “nation-building” agenda – the accelerated construction of millions of homes and transportation and energy infrastructure projects – will require unprecedented numbers of skilled-trades and construction workers, many from abroad. It’s an opportunity to forge a migration co-operation agreement with Mexico that could provide the incentives and processes needed to restore visa-free travel. 

The G7, given the elephant in the room, is probably not the place to start mending this rift. But the two heads of government should meet soon, and in person, to restore both human mobility and political cooperation between two countries that have more in common with each other than with the untamed animal lying between them.

Source: Mexico and Canada fell apart over migration. Could it bring us back together?

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Can Near-Historic Low Migrant Encounter Levels at the U.S.-Mexico Border Be Sustained?

2025/06/11 Leave a comment

Good question, force only or with other migration management measures that started under the Biden administration:

Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border have fallen to lows not seen since the 1960s. In April, the U.S. Border Patrol reported intercepting fewer than 8,400 irregular crossers—a stark contrast from the record high of nearly 250,000 encounters witnessed in December 2023. And data picked up elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere suggest unauthorized migration headed northward is slowing across the region: Reporting from the Darien Gap, the treacherous jungle that divides Panama and Colombia, shows there were just 200 crossings in March, compared to more than 37,000 the same month a year earlier.

With these near-historic lows, the Trump administration can rightfully claim that it has secured the border at this time, building on declines that began in early 2024 and accelerated in the second half of the year. The longer-term test, however, is whether this success can be sustained through the administration’s new show of force alone, without the less visible migration management ingredients that led to the quieting border the administration inherited.

A Year-Long Story of Reduced Migrant Flows 

The current lows build on a pattern of reduced irregular arrivals that started with changes in Biden administration policies in early 2024. Amid the record level of Southwest border arrivals witnessed in December 2023, which came on the heels of two years of record border encounters during the Biden administration, the U.S. and Mexican governments negotiated increased Mexican enforcement at Mexico’s northern border and throughout the country, including checkpoints throughout well-traveled interior routes.

With this ongoing additional enforcement from Mexico, irregular arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border decreased by 53 percent between December 2023 and May 2024 (see Figure 1). The impact of Mexican enforcement cannot be overstated: Mexican authorities recorded more encounters than did the U.S. Border Patrol  every single month between May 2024 and March 2025 (the most recent month for which Mexican enforcement data are available).

Figure 1. Irregular Migrant Encounters by U.S. Border Patrol at U.S.-Mexico Border, 2023–25

Note: The data here reflect encounters recorded by the U.S. Border Patrol of migrants crossing the border without authorization; U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Office of Field Operations encounters of migrants arriving at a U.S. port of entry without prior authorization to enter are not included here.
Source: CBP, “CBP Nationwide Encounters,” accessed May 29, 2025.

Following implementation of the Biden administration’s June 2024 Secure the Border rule,  irregular encounters continued to drop, with the ongoing aid offered by increased Mexican enforcement. This rule sought to disincentivize illegal entries and incentivize arrivals at a port of entry by further limiting access to asylum for those who crossed between ports of entry and permitting an appointment, through use of the CBP One app, to be screened at an official port of entry. Those who entered through the CBP One app could later go on to apply for asylum.

Irregular crossings dropped from 84,000 that June to 47,000 in December, a 43 percent decrease. Notably, encounters in December 2024 were 81 percent lower than the same month a year earlier. Proof that the carrot-and-stick approach was beginning to turn the tide was seen in November 2024, when for the first time more migrants arrived at ports of entry than between (see Figure 2). Though by a small margin, this shift established a pattern of more migrants seeking to enter lawfully via CBP One rather than risk entering irregularly.

Figure 2. Migrant Encounters At and Between Ports of Entry at U.S.-Mexico Border, 2024

Note: Office of Field Operations (OFO) encounters occur at ports of entry; U.S. Border Patrol encounters occur between ports of entry.
Source: CBP, “CBP Nationwide Encounters.”

Inheriting an Increasingly Quiet Border

Thus, the current lows seen under the Trump administration represent a continuation of trends established during the prior administration—and momentum the Biden team put in place by increasing migration management cooperation with Mexico and other countries in the Western Hemisphere as well as further narrowing access to asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. However, upon taking office, the Trump administration shuttered many of the programs that had become the basis for dramatic reductions in irregular arrivals.

During his first days in office, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the border and a migrant “invasion.” By cancelling use of the CBP One app while leaving the Secure the Border rule restrictions in place, the Trump administration made asylum inaccessible at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Most notably, the administration terminated access to Biden-era humanitarian pathways that had helped reduce chaotic arrivals at the Southwest border. The Trump administration swiftly ended admissions under the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan (CHNV) parole program, which reduced irregular encounters of those nationalities at the border by 92 percent between October 2022 and December 2024. Nearly 532,000 individuals were admitted through the CHNV program, allowing them access to work permits and temporary relief from deportation. The administration also closed the Safe Mobility Offices (SMOs) that had been set up in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala to consider migrants for refugee resettlement or other lawful pathways before they reached the U.S. border. More than 40,000 people were approved for U.S. refugee status through the SMOs.

Source: Can Near-Historic Low Migrant Encounter Levels at the U.S.-Mexico Border Be Sustained?

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The Unauthorized Immigrant Population Expands amid Record U.S.-Mexico Border Arrivals

2025/02/10 2 Comments

Helps explain some of the Trump administration concerns with the Southern border (but not the Northern one). Good series of explanatory charts:

Amid record encounters of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal years (FY) 2021 and 2022 and wide use of humanitarian parole to allow entry of migrants arriving without visas, the size of the unauthorized immigrant population has reached its highest level yet. The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates that approximately 13.7 million unauthorized immigrants lived in the United States as of mid-2023, up from 12.8 million the year prior. MPI revised upwards its estimates for 2022 and prior years, using an updated methodology that permits better addressing the Census Bureau’s undercount of new immigrants.

Between 2019 and 2023, the unauthorized immigrant population grew by 3 million, or an average of 6 percent per year (see Figure 1). The nation had not seen yearly increases this large since the early 2000s.

This growth is partially explained by increased irregular arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border, with a rising mix of nationalities from across the Western Hemisphere from countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, and Nicaragua, as well as hundreds of thousands of people who entered with humanitarian parole from Ukraine, Mexico, Haiti, and other countries. And it also stems from sizable numbers of Europeans and others who overstayed their nonimmigrant visa.

Most of the changes are expected continuations of trends that started several years ago. For example, the unauthorized immigrant population from Venezuela started to grow quickly following the severe economic and political turbulence that began there in 2015. Likewise, the unauthorized populations from Honduras and Guatemala grew rapidly starting around 2019….

Source: The Unauthorized Immigrant Population Expands amid Record U.S.-Mexico Border Arrivals

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Mexico Could Respond To Trump’s Actions By Helping Less On Immigration

2024/11/29 Leave a comment

To watch and insights into the success of the Biden administration use of legal pathways and other measures to reduce the number of border crossers:

Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods from Mexico even though the Mexican government has already helped reduce illegal entry into the United States. Economists warn imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported into America from Canada and Mexico would harm the three economies and raise prices for U.S. consumers. In part due to Mexico’s cooperation, illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump was president. Analysts say his tariff threat and other actions could be counterproductive and upend current U.S.-Mexico cooperation on immigration.

Donald Trump’s Threats On Trade And Immigration

Although Inauguration Day remains several weeks away, Donald Trump has roiled relations with America’s neighbors. “In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump mentioned a caravan of migrants making its way to the United States from Mexico, and said he would use an executive order to levy a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border,” reported the New York Times.

“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” wrote Trump. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem,” he said. “We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump also said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from China. “Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” wrote Trump.

According to the American Action Forum, a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would cost the average U.S. household approximately $1,700 a year. The dislocation and lost sales experienced by U.S. companies when Canada and Mexico likely retaliate against the tariffs represent additional economic costs.

Illegal Immigration Is Lower Today Than When Trump Was President

Illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump left office. In October 2024, there were 56,530 Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border, a figure well below the 75,316 encounters in January 2021 when Trump was president. Starting in July 2024, encounters remained under the 60,000 level each month. Border Patrol encounters were higher in January 2021, even though the Covid-19 pandemic slowed the economy during Trump’s last month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the less illegal entry.)

Analysts credit the Biden administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Given this cooperation, Trump’s threats likely surprised the Mexican government.

“You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States,” wrote Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a letter to Trump. “As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection, encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States’ CBP One program.”…

Source: Mexico Could Respond To Trump’s Actions By Helping Less On Immigration

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Axworthy et al: Canada’s plan to require visas from some Mexicans is a dangerous overreaction

2024/03/01 Leave a comment

Predictable reaction but not doing so would be an even more dangerous under reaction. And there is no reason why the visa requirement cannot be combined with longer term measures to reduce the root causes (no matter how sceptical I am about their chances of success):

….Before Mr. Trudeau’s government lifted it, Mexicans were deeply offended by Canada’s cumbersome visa requirement, which required visitors to endure a frustrating process operated by an inadequately staffed bureaucracy. Canadian businesses, farmers, and tourist operators also suffered heavily. But the untold damage of visa requirements may be even more significant today: more than 350,000 Mexicans visit Canada annually, and 2 million Canadians – many of them vacationers – travel to Mexico; the country has become the 10th-largest destination for Canadian investment, with some 2,000 Canadian companies now doing business there. Fortunately, it appears that the reimposed visa restrictions won’t affect those coming to Canada on study or work permits, as seasonal workers from Mexico are the linchpin of our agricultural sector, and academic exchanges between Mexican and Canadian institutions of higher learning have grown dramatically.

Still, the federal government seems to have chosen the quick and easy way out – a short-sighted decision amid growing election fever that fails to address the real roots of the problem.

Source: Canada’s plan to require visas from some Mexicans is a dangerous overreaction

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Organized crime, including Mexican cartels, smuggling migrants to Canada

2024/02/09 Leave a comment

Foreshadowing likely re-imposition of Mexican visa requirement?:

Immigration Minister Marc Miller told the Commons that the government is looking at measures to “tighten the screws” on steeply rising migration to Canada, including examining whether to re-impose visas to visitors from Mexico.

“The flows that are coming into the country – regardless of the country of origin – particularly in terms of asylum seekers and irregular migration are very high,” he said. “I think it is important to take a look at our public policies to see where we can tighten that up – and that includes Mexico.”

Conservative immigration critic Tom Kmiec said there had been a surge in asylum claims from Mexicans to more than 14,000 a year, since the visa requirement was lifted in 2016. He pressed the minister on why action has not yet been taken to reimpose visas, with 70 per cent of Mexican asylum claims rejected.

Mr. Miller said he did not want to “downplay the severity of the issue” and that the acceptance rates from asylum seekers from Mexico were much lower overall than those from other countries. But he said Mexico is one of Canada’s most important trading partners and the issue involved “a process internally as well as with the Government of Mexico.”

Source: Organized crime, including Mexican cartels, smuggling migrants to Canada

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Canada weighing extra border measures for asylum seekers from Mexico, says public safety minister

2024/01/23 Leave a comment

Kind of amusing the impact that the large numbers, ignored for so long, have finally spurred recognition and likely action, as is the case for Monday’s introduction of caps on international students:

Canada is weighing a number of measures to prevent Mexican nationals from flying into the country to request asylum, a top official said on Sunday, after Quebec’s premier said earlier this week the lack of visa requirements for Mexican travellers meant more refugees were arriving by plane.

Speaking to the Canadian Broadcasting Corp., Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said he and the Immigration Minister Marc Miller were considering visas and other measures.

The two ministers are looking for “the appropriate way to ensure that people who arrived from Mexico arrived for the appropriate reasons and that this doesn’t become sort of a side door to get access to Canada,” Mr. LeBlanc said.

“We’re looking at a number of measures that would, in fact, put us in a position to have done what’s necessary to ensure that these flights directly from Mexico don’t become sort of an indirect way to get access to Canada and to claim asylum,” he added.

In a letter last week, Quebec Premier François Legault urged Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to stem the flow of refugees into the province and to compensate it for costs, claiming Quebec’s services were close to a “breaking point” owing to the rising number.

“Mexican nationals represent a growing proportion of the asylum seekers arriving in Quebec, the possibility of entering Canada from Mexico without a visa certainly explains part of the flow of asylum seekers,” Mr. Legault wrote in the letter.

Ottawa is coming under pressure for its immigration policies because they are blamed for exacerbating a housing crunch, and because some services provided by the provinces, like education and health care, are struggling to keep up with population growth.

Source: Canada weighing extra border measures for asylum seekers from Mexico, says public safety minister

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Vastel: Les prévisibles répercussions d’une volte-face irréfléchie [removal Mexican visa requirement]

2024/01/17 Leave a comment

Indeed:

Le résultat était prévisible. Le gouvernement de Justin Trudeau en avait été prévenu. Le premier ministre s’est néanmoins entêté, dès son arrivée au pouvoir, à lever l’obligation de visas imposée par son prédécesseur aux ressortissants mexicains. Et le Canada peine aujourd’hui, inéluctablement, à gérer l’explosion de leurs arrivées et des demandes d’asile, qui aurait pu être évitée, n’eût été l’acharnement politique du premier ministre au détriment de la bonne politique publique.

Le mois dernier, Radio-Canada nous apprenait qu’Ottawa ouvre désormais la porte à un retour sur cette décision mal avisée. Une sage volte-face, si elle se confirme. Car rien ne justifiait d’éliminer en 2016 l’imposition de visas aux voyageurs du Mexique, hormis la volonté de Justin Trudeau d’honorer une promesse électorale, de démanteler du même coup l’héritage de son prédécesseur conservateur et de tenter, sitôt élu, de se forger une réputation sur la scène internationale.

Les fonctionnaires fédéraux avaient même averti les troupes de Justin Trudeau des risques d’un tel amendement à sa politique d’immigration : que des ressortissants d’autres pays se munissent de faux passeports du Mexique pour pouvoir entrer librement au Canada, que des membres du crime organisé se faufilent pour s’installer au pays et que les demandes d’asile injustifiées se multiplient. Sept ans plus tard, voilà précisément ce que constatent les autorités canadiennes, ont révélé une série de reportages de Radio-Canada l’automne dernier. C’est à croire que M. Trudeau aurait mieux fait de se fier à l’expertise de la fonction publique fédérale plutôt qu’à sa simple volonté politique. Quelle idée saugrenue.

L’ancien premier ministre Stephen Harper avait imposé en 2009, au grand mécontentement du Mexique, l’obligation pour ses ressortissants d’obtenir un visa pour voyager au Canada. Le nombre de demandes d’asile présentées par des Mexicains à leur arrivée en sol canadien atteignait alors des records (9500 pour la seule année 2009), après avoir presque triplé au cours des trois années précédentes. L’effet a été immédiat, et ces demandes ont chuté pour ne se chiffrer cinq ans plus tard qu’à 90.

Mais aussitôt le visa remplacé par une simple autorisation de voyage électronique, la tendance s’est inéluctablement inversée. En 2022, à la suite de la réouverture complète post-pandémie des frontières, près de 8000 ressortissants mexicains ont demandé le statut de réfugié aux douanes aéroportuaires canadiennes entre les mois de janvier et octobre — dont 82 % à l’aéroport international de Montréal. Malgré tout, le gouvernement Trudeau — qui avait laissé entendre en 2016, pour apaiser les craintes soulevées par ses propres fonctionnaires, qu’il plafonnerait l’arrivée de migrants mexicains à 3500 par année — refusait alors toujours d’adapter sa politique d’accueil.

Au cours des neuf premiers mois de 2023, ce chiffre aurait atteint 17 500 demandes. Or, à peine 30 % de celles-ci sont acceptées en moyenne. L’arrivée d’un visa, en 2009, avait fait chuter de 85 % le nombre de fausses demandes présentées.

Le Québec s’inquiète depuis l’an dernier de ce nouveau flux d’arrivées par avion, qui ne sont pas équivalentes au nombre d’entrées irrégulières du chemin Roxham, fermé en mars dernier, mais qui se font encore de façon disproportionnée à Montréal. Les États-Unis sont venus ajouter leur voix, constatant que l’entrée irrégulière de Mexicains sur leur territoire, bien que bien moindre par leur frontière nord, avait plus que quadruplé entre 2015 et 2023 (plus de 4800 arrestations l’an dernier).

Pendant que le gouvernement de François Legault attend toujours qu’Ottawa acquiesce à sa demande de remboursement pour l’accueil quasi exclusif de migrants sur son territoire, les doléances des Américains, elles, ont visiblement davantage convaincu le gouvernement canadien que le statu quo était intenable. La sourde oreille réservée au Québec s’est avérée tout ouïe pour Washington.

Il est désormais à souhaiter que le gouvernement Trudeau mûrisse rapidement sa réflexion et admette enfin son erreur. La précarité économique et l’instabilité sécuritaire qui sévissent au Mexique ne permettent pas — et n’ont malheureusement jamais permis depuis 10 ans — une porte ouverte et sans contrôle à ses ressortissants. La liaison aérienne Mexico-Montréal ne peut devenir une passoire, aux répercussions largement documentées ces derniers mois.

Le Québec, d’abord, s’en trouve à accueillir un nombre de demandeurs d’asile de plus en plus difficile à gérer pour ses services publics. Et c’est l’intégrité du système d’immigration canadien qui risque d’être fragilisée. Cette volte-face arbitraire, qui n’a jamais eu lieu d’être, doit maintenant une fois pour toutes être à son tour renversée.

Source: Les prévisibles répercussions d’une volte-face irréfléchie

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Diane Francis: Trudeau’s open immigration policies are becoming a problem for Americans

2023/11/16 Leave a comment

Picking up on earlier CBC reporting and advocating for ending the visa exemption for Mexico:

….

The Americans don’t realize that Ottawa’s immigration system needs a complete overhaul. Toronto and Vancouver are being flooded with newcomers who are overwhelming hospitals and homeless shelters, and driving up real estate prices. Visa-free travel for Mexicans is a loophole that must be closed. And Canada’s loose student visa rules must be tightened immediately.

Source: Diane Francis: Trudeau’s open immigration policies are becoming a … – Financial Post

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What’s behind the rise in undocumented Indian immigrants crossing U.S. borders on foot – NBC News

2023/11/16 Leave a comment

Of interest:

From October 2022 to this September, the 2023 fiscal year, there were 96,917 Indians encountered — apprehended, expelled or denied entry — having entered the U.S. without papers. It marks a fivefold increase from the same period from 2019 to 2020, when there were just 19,883.

Immigration experts say several factors are at play, including an overall growth in global migration since the pandemic, oppression of minority communities in India, smugglers’ use of increasingly sophisticated and in-demand methods of getting people to America, and extreme visa backlogs.

The number of undocumented Indians in the U.S. has been climbing since borders opened post-Covid, with 30,662 encountered in the 2021 fiscal year and 63,927 in the 2022 fiscal year.

Out of the nearly 97,000 encounters this year, 30,010 were at the Canadian border and 41,770 at the Southern border.

“The Southern border has just become a staging ground for migrants from all parts of the world to come to the U.S. most quickly,” said Muzaffar Chishti, a lawyer and the director of non-partisan research group Migration Policy Institute’s New York office. “Why would you wait for a visitor visa in Delhi if you can make it faster to the Southern border?”

The Canadian border, on the other hand, has large stretches that are virtually unguarded at times, said Gaurav Khanna, an assistant professor of economics at the University of California at San Diego, whose research concentrates on immigration.

While not all routes look the same, a journey from India to the U.S. might take migrants on several legs, all while being passed among various facilitators.

“People will get you to, let’s say, the Middle East, or people will get you to Europe,” Chishti said. “The next journey from there would be to Africa. If not Africa, maybe then to South America. Then the next person will get you from South America to the south of Mexico. Then from the south of Mexico to the northern cities of Mexico, and then the next person will get you over to the U.S.”

Long, treacherous journeys often land migrants in limbo, facing overwhelmed immigration systems, he said. CBP told NBC News that families coming to the U.S. illegally will face removal.

“No one should believe the lies of smugglers through these travel agencies. The fact is that individuals and families without a legal basis to remain in the United States will be removed,” a CBP spokesperson said.

But when those migrants are coming from across an ocean, experts say, the reality is far more complicated.

“You can easily turn people back to Mexico — that’s their country, ‘make a U-turn,’” Chishti said. “But you can’t deport people to faraway places that easily. Mexico won’t take them. Why would Mexico take an Indian?”

….

Source: What’s behind the rise in undocumented Indian immigrants crossing U.S. borders on foot – NBC News

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