COVID-19 Immigration Effects – June 2022 update

My latest monthly update.

June numbers reflect a gradual but uneven opening across the suite of immigration-related programs compared to April and May.

The number of TR2PR transitions increased slightly compared to May but remained significantly below the latter half of 2021, again suggesting a decreased “inventory” and/or a conscious government decision to redress the balance and address backlogs.

While TRs/TFWP remained largely stable compared to May, the number of TRs/IMP climbed dramatically for Canadian Interests and the frustrating unclear categories of “other IMP participants” and “not stated.”

International students, applications and permits, continue to reflect normal seasonal patterns.

While last month, I thought that citizenship looked on track to continue whittling away at the backlog of close 400,000 (as if July 4), this appears unlikely at IRCC has been averaging about 30,000 per month in 2022.

The number of Ukrainians arriving in Canada, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel remains significant, but has declined to only about one-third of all visitor visas in June compared to one-half in April and May, while overall numbers have declined somewhat and remain below pre-pandemic levels.

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects – May 2022 update

My latest monthly update.

May numbers are similar to April as the first months of the pandemic resulted in drastic shutdowns and reductions across the suite of immigration-related programs.

The number of TR2PR transitions continued to decline. While in 2021, these transitions (some double counting) averaged about 68 percent of all Permanent Residents admissions, in 2022 this share had dropped to about 51 percent, suggesting a decreased “inventory” and/or a conscious government decision too redress the balance and address backlogs.

Temporary residents (IMP and TFWP) continued reflected an ongoing return to pre-pandemic levels along with the seasonal changes in agriculture workers. The number of not-stated IMP has increased, from forming about 9 percent of all IMP in 2021 to about 23 percent in 2022, possibly reflecting coding issues.

International students, applications and permits, reflect normal seasonal patterns. As noted, given the number of media and other reports regarding private colleges being used more for immigration than study purposes (and related exploitation), IRCC needs to consider seriously disaggregating post-secondary study permits data to separate out public and private sector institutions.

Citizenship looks on track to continue whittling away at the backlog of about 400,000 (as if June 1st).

The number of Ukrainians arriving in Canada, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel remains significant, comprising half of all visitor visas in April and May.