Lalande | To successfully fight Trump, Canada needs one thing: more Canadians

2025/02/11 Leave a comment

Certainly, not as many as the CI advocates. Competitiveness is real, and depends less on population growth than smart economic and immigration policies. The grave mistake was CI’s early advocacy for a larger population, Barton’s recommendations, and the Liberal government’s not thinking critically about what that would mean for housing, healthcare and infrastructure:

Time discovers truth.

In this case, it’s a brutal one.

The federal government’s decision to cut immigration targets by 21 per cent in 2025 and 24 per cent in 2026 was a grave mistake. Alarmingly, the consequences are rearing their ugly head at the worst possible time.

By reducing immigration levels, Canada is facing the economic fight of our lives with one arm tied behind our back. This is a moment when we should be projecting strength and growth — yet, instead, we have chosen to shrink. And unfortunately for us, this policy shift is occurring at the same time as another major demographic headwind: the retirement of five million Canadians by the end of the decade.

The economic impacts of these reductions are dire. A new Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) report examined the impact of reduced immigration levels and found that by 2027, Canada will see 1.3 billion fewer hours worked and a $37 billion reduction in nominal GDP, on average, over the next three years. These economic impacts will cripple Canada’s tax base, erode our economic resilience and reduce access to public services that Canadians rely upon.

We also haven’t yet factored in the proverbial elephant in the room that is the ongoing threat of tariffs and trade warfare. When we accept the true extent of economic volatility on the horizon, it becomes clear that Canada is in the midst of an economic emergency.

It’s one made considerably worse by the fact we have undermined our own bargaining power. The Conference Board of Canada has warned of a $6.9 billion reduction in real consumer spending in 2025, growing to $10.8 billion in 2026 — a consequence of both fewer workers, fewer people and a contracting market.

Understanding how we got here is critical. The absence of a national strategy for population and economic growth has left us vulnerable. The only way out is through a renewed focus on Canada’s competitiveness.

First, let’s radically improve our business climate so we can meaningfully diversify the Canadian economy and sharpen the tools in our economic toolbox. Trade wars may be a race to the bottom, but we can at least position ourselves as a stronger and more diversified, self-reliant economic competitor.

In 2023, Canada earned $152 billion from oil and gas exports to the United States, dwarfing all other sectors. Auto manufacturing, by comparison, only accounted for $51 billion worth of exports in 2023. We are doing ourselves a disservice by relying disproportionately on oil and gas exports at the expense of other industries, which can also be sources of innovation, investment and prosperity.

We also need to invest in a pro-growth agenda at lightning speed, attracting entrepreneurs and making it easier for large capital projects to set up shop in Canada and seize our early advantage in burgeoning industries such as artificial intelligence. Highly skilled immigrants are a key part of the equation, bringing entrepreneurial ambition and foreign investment capital with them. This pro-growth agenda must focus not only on attracting new businesses but retaining them for the long-term.

Second, let’s focus on talent.

With U.S. immigration tightening, Canada has a golden opportunity to attract workers — but only with a compelling pitch. Instead of vague promises, we must offer a clear vision: strong job prospects, affordability, accessible health care, and inclusive communities. This pitch should target highly skilled American workers facing growing uncertainty about their residency status, but also prioritize workers for industries where we have shortages such as construction, trades, green economy, and health care.

To win the war for talent, Canada must modernize its immigration points system to prioritize high-demand skills. And we must invest in housing, transit, health care and child care to ensure newcomers don’t just arrive, but stay.

These aren’t new solutions — experts have pushed for them for years. But the current threat of tariffs and trade warfare makes action not only more urgent than ever, but possible. This is a rare political moment where everyone’s attention is focused on Canada’s economic future. Whatever happens in the coming months, we should not look away from the threat.

For once, the political necessity to act is matched by the political will to act. So let’s seize this moment.

Source: Opinion | To successfully fight Trump, Canada needs one thing: more Canadians

Filed under Immigration Tagged with ,

Canada on track for 100 million immigrants but public support can’t be taken for granted: Century Initiative CEO 

2023/05/31 Leave a comment

While not walking back from their fundamental arguments, still a recognition of the reality of the government’s and CI’s approach and advocacy, as is their focus on “growing well” not just growth:

The chief executive of the Century Initiative says Canada “has reached the point of no return” when it comes to welcoming more immigrants, as its modelling shows Canada is on track to more than double its population to at least 100 million by the turn of the century.

But Lisa Lalande warned that existing high levels of public support for increasing immigration cannot be taken for granted.

“If public opinion shifts on immigration, policy will shift, and ultimately that will be detrimental to the future of the country,” she said in an interview.

The Century Initiative, a non-profit lobby group, wants to see Canada’s population grow from 39.5 million to 100 million by 2100. Ms. Lalande says more investment is needed to address problems such as housing shortages, so Canada “grows well” and can accommodate more people.

Current high levels of immigration and government policy decisions – such as making it easier for foreign students to get permanent residence – are putting Canada on track for the first time to meet or even surpass its target, the Century Initiative’s modelling has found.

Canada had record population growth of 703,404 people in 2021-2022, with immigration accounting for 94 per cent.

Ms. Lalande said the Century Initiative was not just in favour of a numerical target. Its research examines housing, investment in infrastructure, and climate adaptation, and it is focused on “making sure we are making investments that accommodate the population growth.”

The Century Initiative, which was co-founded by former Liberal government adviser, Dominic Barton, became the target of sharp criticism in Quebec this month, with Premier François Legault saying its plan for 100 million Canadians was a threat to Quebec.

The backlash in the province followed the announcement of a federal plan for 500,000 more newcomers to Canada in 2025, with some claiming it was part of a government bid to implement the lobby group’s 100 million target.

Referring to the controversy, Ms. Lalande said that its polling shows support for immigration is growing in Quebec, along with the rest of the country.

A poll last fall showed that 69 per cent of Canadians disagreed that there was too much immigration, while just over one in four agreed. Quebeckers as a whole were no less supportive of immigration than Canadians elsewhere in the country.

The Environics Institute survey was based on telephone interviews with 2,000 Canadians conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 30, 2022, with an accuracy within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points in 19 out of 20 samples.

Those who felt there is too much immigration thought it posed a threat to Canadian or Quebec culture, will drain the economy and welfare system, or take jobs away from other Canadians.

The Century Initiative’s third annual “score card,” looking at how Canada is doing in achieving growth and prosperity, said this month that “these types of perceptions highlight the importance of continuing to build the public case for the benefits of immigration” and expanding the housing supply as well as improving infrastructure such as roads and public services.

“While there was strong support for immigration among Canadians in 2022, this situation is critical to monitor and could evolve alongside economic and societal pressures,” it stressed.

Ms. Lalande said Canada’s immigration program is admired by other countries, and “we actually do a good job in integration.”

However, people in smaller communities may be feeling “demographic shifts in a more pronounced way” than other parts of Canada.

She says Canada has “reached the point of no return” when it comes to increasing the population, and immigration is a way to plug job shortages, including in health care and retail.

“We are too late to say let’s put a pause on growth so that we can address all these issues,” she said. “Our demographic realities are such that we are already feeling closures of hospital emergency rooms. There’s some pretty serious issues. And immigration is one way to address them.”

Among the obstacles is getting foreign credentials recognized more swiftly so skilled immigrants, including doctors, can practise in Canada. Strides have been made recently, including making it easier for engineers to work in Ontario.

The scorecard found Canadians’ fertility rate remained low and the COVID-19 pandemic had led to a drop in life expectancy. It also found housing costs have escalated, while investment in infrastructure has declined.

“Without planned and strategic investments in infrastructure, population growth will put a strain on Canada’s economy, quality of life and well-being,” it said.

But Ms. Lalande says it’s wrong to blame the growing number of immigrants for the shortage of affordable housing and the rising cost of living, claims which have crept into the public narrative in recent weeks during the debate on immigration in Quebec.

“It’s easier to scapegoat, point the finger at immigration when there are much more complex issues, “she says. “You need to have that big picture.”

“Even if we pulled back nationally on immigration, we’d still have significant housing shortages.”

Even so, existing support for more immigration in Canada is not “something that we can rely on.”

“We can’t take that for granted,” she said. “It’s a Canadian advantage and we must seize on that advantage.”

Source: Canada on track for 100 million immigrants but public support can’t be taken for granted: Century Initiative CEO

Filed under Immigration Tagged with , ,

Lalande: Is #immigration at risk? Canadian attitudes could shift without proper planning

2022/09/15 Leave a comment

Broadening of the Century Initiative messaging to more explicitly address and mitigate externalities (as described in their scorecard), and a focus on “growing well” rather than just on demography and growth:

Welcoming and accepting successive waves of immigration has been one of Canada’s global advantages. Historically Canadians have recognized that immigration helps us innovate, grows our economy, keeps our public services solvent, develops cultural connections and business relationships with communities all over the world, and contributes to meeting our labour and skills needs – something that requires urgent attention right now.

Whatever their other points of disagreement, Canadians have welcomed immigrants and acknowledged the contributions they make to our economy and our social fabric.

While not yet at the stage it may be at in some other countries, that consensus may fraying and at risk of coming apart.   When Canadians are facing real day-to-day challenges in the forms of rising inflation and interest rates, housing unaffordability, labour shortages in healthcare and crumbling physical infrastructure, it can be difficult to see how welcoming more people in the country could help.

That unraveling is ever faster as divisive political discourse spreads and grows louder. There is deep anger we see reflected online in a rapid increase of hateful, racist and nationalistic comments.  Through my work at Century Initiative, I have experienced this vitriol directly, and I know many of you have too.

In the interest of our economic future we need to act now. Immigration is crucial to our development as a society, an economy and a nation.  We need more immigration and more supports for immigrants. We must continue to be the best country in the world in welcoming immigrants.

At the same time, we need to have an honest conversation about ensuring the benefits of immigration cascade to Canadians already living here – and mitigating any possible negative impacts of a growing population. Those discussions must be civil and focused on finding solutions.

At Century Initiative, we speak a lot about ‘growing well’. This means that not only do we need a growing population, but we need the policies, the public institutions and the physical infrastructure that will allow us to achieve sustainable population growth AND a prosperous country for all of us – old and new.

We need to make sure immigrants can contribute economically to their highest potential – by recognizing their credentials and by ensuring immigrant settlement agencies can support entrepreneurs and small businesspeople.

It also means recognizing the link between population growth and our ability to meet our health care, infrastructure and other needs. For example, with relatively low unemployment, population growth at its lowest in more than 100 years and growing demand for labour, we simply do not have the skilled workforce we need to build houses, highways and other infrastructure or staff our hospitals and other high demand jobs.

Take, for instance, our housing needs. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation recently estimated restoring housing affordability, will mean building nearly six million new housing units between now and 2030. At present, we are nowhere near being able to meet that target, for a variety of reasons, including the fact that we do not have the labour required to build what needs building.

Similarly, our shortage of healthcare professionals is leading to a crisis in a pandemic-battered public healthcare system. Our strained public services – even with respect to things as simple as passports – are creaking under soaring demand.

These are grave structural problems. Immigration can help address them.  Thankfully, no prominent politician has suggested limiting or eliminating immigration.  Let’s make sure it never happens.

The Canadian immigration model is a light unto the world. It’s our secret weapon – allowing our trading and innovating nation to become home to the world’s best, brightest and most ambitious.

But it is also fragile.

If we are going to grow, we need to grow well. And growing well means fixing the structural problems which make growth painful for ordinary Canadians – so that immigration can be part of a long-term solution for sustainable public services, a growing economy, and a prosperous country.

Source: Is immigration at risk? Canadian attitudes could shift without proper planning

Filed under Immigration Tagged with ,