Mexico Could Respond To Trump’s Actions By Helping Less On Immigration

To watch and insights into the success of the Biden administration use of legal pathways and other measures to reduce the number of border crossers:

Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods from Mexico even though the Mexican government has already helped reduce illegal entry into the United States. Economists warn imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported into America from Canada and Mexico would harm the three economies and raise prices for U.S. consumers. In part due to Mexico’s cooperation, illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump was president. Analysts say his tariff threat and other actions could be counterproductive and upend current U.S.-Mexico cooperation on immigration.

Donald Trump’s Threats On Trade And Immigration

Although Inauguration Day remains several weeks away, Donald Trump has roiled relations with America’s neighbors. “In a post on Truth Social, Mr. Trump mentioned a caravan of migrants making its way to the United States from Mexico, and said he would use an executive order to levy a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border,” reported the New York Times.

“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” wrote Trump. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem,” he said. “We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump also said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from China. “Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” wrote Trump.

According to the American Action Forum, a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would cost the average U.S. household approximately $1,700 a year. The dislocation and lost sales experienced by U.S. companies when Canada and Mexico likely retaliate against the tariffs represent additional economic costs.

Illegal Immigration Is Lower Today Than When Trump Was President

Illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump left office. In October 2024, there were 56,530 Border Patrol encounters at the Southwest border, a figure well below the 75,316 encounters in January 2021 when Trump was president. Starting in July 2024, encounters remained under the 60,000 level each month. Border Patrol encounters were higher in January 2021, even though the Covid-19 pandemic slowed the economy during Trump’s last month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the less illegal entry.)

Analysts credit the Biden administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Given this cooperation, Trump’s threats likely surprised the Mexican government.

“You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States,” wrote Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in a letter to Trump. “As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection, encounters at the Mexico–United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. Moreover, half of those who arrive do so through a legally scheduled appointment under the United States’ CBP One program.”…

Source: Mexico Could Respond To Trump’s Actions By Helping Less On Immigration