How immigration could be impacting the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring down inflation

Of note:

Demand created from a record influx of immigrants could be one factor keeping inflation higher for longer than anticipated, some economists say, though Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem doesn’t appear overly worried about it.

Sticky inflation prompted the Bank of Canada on July 12 to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to five per cent — the highest level since 2001. Though the inflation rate has fallen off its peak of 8.1 per cent last summer to 3.4 per cent in May, prices of more than half the goods in the consumer price index, such as meat, bread, coffee and rent, continue to rise, Macklem said in a press conference following the decision.

The central bank now expects inflation to reach its two per cent target by the middle of 2025, instead of the end of next year as predicted in April.

But even as prices for key goods go up, the economy is proving more resilient than expected and demand momentum and consumption growth has been “surprisingly strong,” the bank said in a statement, pushing it to once again hike rates last week.

An increase in immigration could be one complicating factor keeping inflation higher for longer and stoking demand, Bank of Nova Scotia economist Rebekah Young said.

“There is more risk that inflation may be sticky in months and quarters ahead, versus it coming down faster than we thought and newcomers are a part of that story,” she said. “They are certainly adding to what could be keeping (Macklem) up at night.”

Canada welcomed more than one million immigrants in the past year as the federal government sought to address high job vacancies and labour shortages. Young said the country has traditionally used population growth through immigration as a means to increase workers and enhance supply, especially as “massive surges” of inflation haven’t been something policymakers have worried about for decades. But things have gotten more complicated.

“A lot of things are different now,” she said. “The current juncture that we are in, getting inflation back to two per cent is still fraught with uncertainty.”

Macklem last week said he expects the net-impact of immigration growth on inflation to be “roughly neutral,” though he added it is impacting some parts of the economy more than others.

He said that while newcomers filling job vacancies has been good for company margins, easing inflationary pressures, new entrants are also increasing demand for housing, helping boost rent and home prices. It’s “hard to know exactly” the net effect on the economy, he added, but the main message is that immigration is adding to both demand and supply.

“If you start an economy with excess demand (and) you add both demand and supply, you are still in excess demand,” Macklem said. “What we’re seeing is that the excess demand in the economy is more persistent than we thought and so we’ve raised rates in June and July.”

Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said he agrees with Macklem’s assertion that high immigration adds to both demand and supply. But there’s another element the governor “didn’t talk about much,” he said, and that’s a matter of timing.

“(Strong population growth) does tend to affect things like spending and the housing demand almost instantaneously, whereas the supply side might take a little bit longer to kick in,” he said. “A new worker might enter the labour force relatively quickly, but reaching their full potential might take a little bit of time.”

In the short run, strong population growth tends to “push up the price pressures” a little bit, Porter said, but the impact in the longer run is “broadly neutral.”

Porter assessed economies of 20 nations to better understand the link between population growth and inflation and said he found a “very weak positive relationship.” Most of the impact is on the housing market, since there is a “very clear relationship between strong population growth and home prices,” he said.

Still, Porter also said Canada has fared better than most nations in terms of tackling inflation, meaning there are “larger forces at play here, beyond just population growth.”

Source: How immigration could be impacting the Bank of Canada’s efforts to bring down inflation

‘State of shock’: As Canada ramps up immigration, unsuspecting …

Of note, the reality vs the promise:

A year after hearing “welcome home” for the first time at the Canadian border, Shahzad Gidwani found himself questioning whether he and his wife made the right decision to start a new life here.

The timing wasn’t ideal, arriving in Toronto from India with their son just as the pandemic began sweeping the globe. Yet the 53-year-old held high hopes for his family’s future. He was bringing with him decades of international work experience in sales and marketing, and a master’s degree in business from the U.S.

But as inflation crept toward a 40-year high, eating away at the family’s savings, panic began to set in. Gidwani struggled to secure a permanent job with a living wage because employers didn’t want to hire someone without Canadian experience.

“We hadn’t prepared for inflation,” Gidwani said. He estimated they were spending nearly $6,000 a month on rent, furniture, food and basic necessities when they were first settling in. “We were in a state of shock.”

“We thought about whether we’d made the right decision because we were burning through money. What you spend here in one month would last you nine months back in India,” Gidwani said.

Many newcomers like Gidwani come to Canada dreaming of a better life, but lately they have found themselves pummelled by the highest inflation rate in four decades, unable to afford adequate housing, food and basic necessities. And as the federal government responds to historic labour shortages by ramping up immigration — targeting an unprecedented 1.5 million immigrants over the next three years and issuing work permits to non-Canadians at record highs — newcomers are arriving only to find mostly low-skill, low-paying jobs available to them.

Many Canadians are feeling the strain of exorbitant living costs, but those struggles can be more acute for recent immigrants and those trying to secure permanent residence. Newcomers can face discrimination and precarious work conditions while scrambling to fulfil convoluted immigration requirements. According to a recent RBC report, they earn less than the general population and are more likely to reside in inadequate housing.

“Because of competition and favouritism and racism, the Canadian dream of working your way up after you get here often doesn’t happen,” said Jim Stanford, economist and director of think tank Centre for Future Work.

Source: ‘State of shock’: As Canada ramps up immigration, unsuspecting …

USA: Economists hope a rebound in immigration helps curb inflation

Of note, temporary workers as a way to both address labour shortages and reduce wage pressures:

When the crowds return to Funland this summer, they’ll find familiar rides like the Fire Engines and the Sea Dragon at this small beachside amusement park.

For the first time since the pandemic began, many of those rides and games will be staffed by student guest workers from around the world.

“They are truly important to the success of our business,” said Chris Darr, the personnel manager at Funland. “We saw last year, we couldn’t fill the positions that we had.”

The number of guest workers and immigrants coming to the United States is slowly climbing again after steep declines during the pandemic. Tens of thousands of international students are back at resort towns and amusement parks. The Biden administration has released more visas for seasonal guest workers, and it’s automatically extending work permits for others.

Economists say that should ease labor shortages — and some, though not all, think it could help calm inflation too.

“Hopefully if this trend continues, and maybe accelerates, we will see the easing of some of the shortages,” said Giovanni Peri, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis.

Businesses in Rehoboth Beach rely on seasonal guest workers

Employers in Rehoboth Beach are clearly glad to have these temporary student workers back. Without them, Darr says, he couldn’t hire enough people to keep Funland open every day.

“Especially at the end of the summer, early August, we lose college students, we lose high school students back to sports and theater programs,” said Darr, a fourth-generation member of the family that owns the park.

For decades, he says, Funland has relied on students coming to the U.S. on J-1 visas. But the program was all but shut down in 2020. The numbers were up last year, though still far short of pre-pandemic levels.

“Without the J-1 visa program, we wouldn’t be able to open half of the stuff that is in the park,” he said.

This summer, Darr is expecting about two dozen student guest workers — including 21-year-old Morgan Bennett, a student from Jamaica.

“There was a listing of all the different places that I could have worked,” Bennett said. “When the person had told me the type of job that I would have encountered, I just said yes!”

The State Department says the number of participants in its summer work travel program is rebounding toward pre-pandemic levels. Roughly 30,000 participants have started the program already this year, according to a State Department official, with about 50,000 more in the pipeline. That would put the program at roughly three-quarters of its enrollment in 2019, when more than 108,000 visas were issued.

More guest workers could help ease labor shortages

Overall, the U.S. economy is about two million working-age immigrants short of where it would have been if not for the pandemic and the Trump administration’s cuts, according to Peri. He says that’s contributed to a tighter labor market, putting pressure on employers to raise wages — and in turn, prices.

“If these shortages loosens up — so if there are more workers — this should also reduce the inflationary pressures,” Peri said. That’s especially true, he says, in industries that depend heavily on immigrant labor, like hospitality.

“We were 32 employees short last summer,” said Susan Wood, who owns the Cultured Pearl Restaurant and Sushi Bar in Rehoboth Beach. “It was torture. I mean all of our staff work six, seven days. They killed themselves.”

“I worked 183 days straight at the front desk, and my husband worked more than that in the kitchen,” she said.

Wood is also participating in the J-1 visa program this year. Without those international student workers, she says, her year-round staff worked a lot of overtime last summer, driving her labor costs way up.

“We had to raise prices,” Wood said. “We raised prices because of payroll, but not nearly as much as we had to raise prices because of food costs.”

Some economists doubt that more immigration will cure inflation

The costs of food and energy are still rising fast. Economists say that’s contributing to inflation across the economy — and some are skeptical that a partial rebound in the number of guest workers and immigrants will have a measurable impact.

“I don’t think it’s going to do much to fix our inflation problem,” said Ramesh Ponnuru, the editor of the National Review, and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank in Washington.

Ponnuru argues that inflation right now is largely caused by problems in the supply chain, and that simply bringing immigration back to pre-COVID levels won’t solve those problems.

“We need an immigration policy designed with our economy’s interests in mind. We don’t have that,” Ponnuru said. “And just toggling that so that you have more of a dysfunctional immigration policy seems to me to be a mistake.”

Temporary guest workers are already making an impact on the bottom line at Thrasher’s French Fries in Rehoboth Beach. General manager Dean Shuttleworth is expecting about a dozen international student workers this summer, which means that he’ll have enough staff to reopen another location across the street that’s been shuttered since the pandemic began.

“[Memorial Day] weekend was the first time we opened our 26 Rehoboth Avenue store up in two years,” Shuttleworth said.

“Last year, we had the volume up. We were extremely busy,” he said. “So I’m in pretty good shape this year.”

Source: Economists hope a rebound in immigration helps curb inflation

Immigration Cannot Significantly Reduce Inflation

Of note. Many of the arguments also apply to the Canadian context:

Many immigration advocates have recently called for increasing the number of immigrants allowed into the country to fill lower-wage jobs in order to decrease wages by increasing the supply of workers, thereby lessening inflation. In this post, we attempt to roughly estimate the possible impact of immigration-induced reductions in wages on consumer prices. We focus our analysis on the lower-wage sectors of the economy that primarily employ workers without a bachelor’s degree (the less-educated) because many of those advocating for more immigration have specifically called for more workers in these sectors. Our analysis shows that reducing wages for the less-educated is not an effective means of controlling inflation because such workers earn relatively little and as a result account for only a modest share of economic output. There is also the equally important question of whether reducing the wages of workers who are the lowest-paid is sound public policy.

Among our findings:

  • Reflecting their relatively modest average compensation, workers without a bachelor’s degree account for an estimated 25 percent of GDP. This means that even a substantial reduction of 10 percent in their wages could likely reduce consumer prices by only an estimated 2.5 percent. More educated workers and capital account for most of the economy.
  • If we look at just lower-wage occupations done primarily by those without a bachelor’s degree, we find that they account for only 22 percent of GDP. As a result, a 10 percent reduction in wages in these occupations could reduce prices by only an estimated 2.2 percent.1
  • It might be possible to reduce wages in specific occupations by dramatically increasing the number of workers in relatively few occupations. But since individual lower-paid occupations account for only a tiny share of the economy, the impact on overall consumer prices would be correspondently tiny. For example, the compensation earned by construction and extraction workers is only 2.2 percent of GDP, for cleaning and maintenance it is 1 percent, for food preparation and serving it is 1.1 percent, and for healthcare support it is 0.9 percent.
  • Prior to Covid, workers, including those without a bachelor’s degree, have generally seen their wages decline or grow very little for more than two decades, so reducing their wages by admitting more immigrants can be seen as unfair and unwise.
  • More than one in seven of these less-educated workers are currently eligible to receive cash payments from the Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child tax Credit — the nation’s largest cash assistance programs for low-wage workers. Reducing the wages of such workers could undo some of these important efforts to help low-income workers.
  • Nearly two-thirds of all children in poverty in America are dependent on a worker who does not have a bachelor’s degree. Using immigration to reduce wages for less-educated workers has significant negative implications for American’s low-income children.

Source: Immigration Cannot Significantly Reduce Inflation