Number of US expats to climb throughout 2025

2025/08/01 2 Comments

From the citizenship-by-investment marketing firm Aston’s. Still relatively small number for a country with such a large population of millionaires and ultra wealthy:

Number of US expats set to reach 5,000 per year in 2025

The latest analysis from Astons, reveals that the number of US citizens choosing to leave the States is forecast to hit almost 5,000 by the end of this year, marking the highest annual total since 2020.

Astons’ analysis of US Federal Register data* reveals that in 2024 an estimated 4,819 US citizens chose to expatriate themselves and settle in another country.

This marked an annual increase of 47.8%.

Further data shows that following this annual increase, the number of US expats has continued to increase at an incredibly sharp rate, with the first quarter of 2025 recording a rise of 102.4% compared to the final quarter of 2024.

This means that in the first three months of this year alone, an estimated 1,285 US citizens become expatriates.

Based on these recent trends, Astons’ now estimates that by the end of 2025, the total number of US citizens expatriating themselves will reach 4,936 – based on the most conservative of forecasts.

This will be equivalent to an annual increase of 2.4%, and mark the highest number of US citizens leaving America in a single year since 2020, the height of the pandemic.

Senior Consultant for Residency and Citizenship Programs at Astons, Suzanna Uzakova, commented:

“We’re seeing a significant shift in the mindset of affluent Americans who are no longer just looking to invest their money wisely, they’re actively seeking new homes and lifestyles beyond U.S. borders. The rising cost of living, political uncertainty, and a desire for greater personal freedoms are pushing many to explore permanent residency abroad.

Europe is especially attractive thanks to its quality of life, healthcare, and cultural richness. Among all European destinations, Greece has emerged as a standout choice — not just for its beauty, but for its accessible Golden Visa programme, favourable tax incentives, and lifestyle that blends luxury with a much sought-after simplicity.

The investment required to access Greece’s Golden Visa programme starts from just €250,000 provided it goes into real estate – making it one of the most affordable residency-by-investment routes in Europe. For many Americans, Greece offers the perfect balance: EU access, property investment potential, and a relaxed pace of life that feels a world away from the rush back home.”

Data tables and sources
*US expat data sourced from the US IRS (US Federal Register)

Full data tables can be viewed online, here.

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Americans apply to revive Canadian citizenship to escape the U.S. under Trump

2025/04/01 Leave a comment

Still mainly anecdotal. Unfortunately, IRCC does not publish citizenship application data on open data

…Immigration consultants and lawyers say they have also had a surge in inquiries from “Lost Canadians” in the U.S. about moving to Canada.

Some “Lost Canadians” told The Globe they want to leave the country out of fear of being detained based on their race, while others said they don’t want to raise children in Mr. Trump’s America.

“In the past few weeks, we have received an increased number of inquiries from American citizens of various backgrounds asking about immigration to Canada, including Lost Canadians,” said Annie Beaudoin, an immigration consultant based in California who used to work for Ottawa’s federal Immigration Department.

Melissa Babel, founder of Babel Immigration law in Ontario, said on Thursday: “I’m getting a lot of calls from people who remember that their grandfather was Canadian – three yesterday.”…

Source: Americans apply to revive Canadian citizenship to escape the U.S. under Trump

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Immigration to Canada from the U.S. has been shifting. Here’s how

2025/03/28 Leave a comment

Interesting shift:

Over the last decade, the majority of Canadian immigrants from the U.S. have been either non-U.S. citizens or Americans who previously lived here as temporary residents, says a new study on migration trends.

According to the Statistics Canada analysis released Wednesday, almost all American immigrants in the early 1980s were U.S. citizens, with more than three-quarters born and last residing in the United States. While this share declined in the following decade, it remained above two-thirds until the early 2010s.

Since then, the proportion of non-citizen U.S. residents immigrating to Canada rose sharply from the early 2010s, reaching 45 per cent or 9,307 in 2019 — the year before the COVID-19 pandemic. This group includes legal and undocumented residents in the country.

Meanwhile, the share of U.S. citizens who were previously on temporary permits in Canada also increased significantly during this period, peaking at 54 per cent (6,454) in 2017 and fluctuating in subsequent years.

“As a result of these shifts, the majority of U.S. immigrants to Canada in recent years have been either U.S. non-citizen residents or U.S. citizens who had already been living in Canada,” said the report, “Recent trends in migration flows from the United States to Canada.”

Who occupies the White House does affect American immigration to Canada, in driving U.S. citizens and temporary residents to seek permanent residence north of the border, it said….

Source: Immigration to Canada from the U.S. has been shifting. Here’s how

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US billionaires’ demand for ‘golden passport’ schemes rockets by 337% in three years

2022/05/09 Leave a comment

Yet more demand by Americans, with interesting reasons stated by consultants (suggesting a mix of right and left leaning ultra wealthy):

Soaring numbers of wealthy Americans are buying ‘golden passports’ that grant them citizenship to New Zealand, Portugal and other ‘safe’ countries over fears of impending civil war in their home country.

Henley & Partners, a firm that helps the wealthy shop around for citizenship across the globe, said sales to American nationals worth between $50 million and $20 billion have shot up more than 337 percent since 2019, Business Insider reported.

Countries involved – including Portugal, Malta, New Zealand and Austria offer citizenship or visas that lead to citizenship in return for heavy investment in the host national, and a visit of just a few days there each year.

Latitude Residency & Citizenship and Dasein Advisors, two other citizenship firms, said they too have seen more inquiries from American clients over the past three years than in the previous 20 combined.

‘We’ve all lived through the past two and a half years,’ Reaz Jafri told Insider, referencing the pandemic and the civil unrest that followed.

‘It all just reminded us how vulnerable and frail we are, and people who have means are accepting that it will happen again — and they don’t want to be caught off guard.’

Other issues said to have seen the demand for foreign passports spike include the likely end of Roe V Wade, which legalized abortion across the US, Florida’s Parental Rights in Education Bill – better known as the Don’t Say Gay Bill, as well as fears for the future of America’s democracy following the Black Lives Matter and January 6 riots.

Dominic Volek, head of private clients at Henley & Partners, said clients were worried over the ‘four Cs: COVID-19, climate change, cryptocurrency and conflict.’

Volek told Insider his firm saw an uptick in clients during the Trump administration, and once the pandemic hit, wealthy Americans were hit by the realities of their country’s COVID restrictions.

‘In the very strict lockdowns there was a point where if you only had an American passport, you could not enter Europe,’ Volek said. ‘I think that made a lot of particularly ultra-high net worth individuals realize that they’re potentially a little bit more fragile than they thought.’

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt was one of the rich elites seeking a ‘golden passport’ in 2020 as he applied for European citizenship in 2020 through Cyprus’s now defunct program.

Along with fears of another pandemic, worsening storms fueled by climate change and worries over an economic collapse, the billionaires are also afraid of civil unrest from a divided nation that only seems to be getting worse everyday.

In the past three years, America saw nationwide protests over pandemic restrictions, the Black Lives Matter movement, laws restricting abortion which have gained new steam as the Supreme Court is poised to overturn Roe V. Wade, voting rights and Critical Race Theory in schools.

The country also received a shock on January 6, 2021, when supporters of former President Donald Trump stormed the Capitol in a deadly riot to attempt to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s victory.

In 2022, Americans continue to be divided over these issues as well as Florida’s so-called ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill and nationwide police reform efforts, where liberal cities that embraced the new laws are experiencing surges in violent crime.

Jafri said the issues plaguing America have caused billionaires to share a single concern, a fear about the future of American society.

Among the most popular countries billionaires are seeking citizenship for is Portugal, which offers a five-year residency permit that allows visa-free travel to 26 countries in the European Union.

Portugal’s program requires a minimum investment of $200,000 in real estate and an average stay of just seven days a year in the country. After the permit expires, individuals can apply for full-time citizenship, which takes an additional three years.

New Zealand, another popular country for ‘golden passports,’ grants permanent residency status to those investing in residential or commercial property, as well as high growth investments and government bonds.

The country’s Investor 1 visa asks for about $6.5 million in investments over three years and requires applicants to stay in the country for 88 days over that timespan.

The Investor 2 visa asks for about $2 million in investments over four years and requires applicants to be 66 or older and to stay in the country for 438 days over four years.

New Zealand golden passport holders include PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, who’s worth an estimated $5 billion.

Malta offers European citizenship to those who contribute more than $740,000 to the national development fund, more than $860,000 into real estate investment, more than $12,000 to charity, and provide proof of at least 36 months of residency in the country.

The nation also offers an expedited process that only calls for proof of 12 months of residency so long as the applicant contributes more than $925,000 to the national development fund.

Austria provides ‘golden passports’ through investment directly, asking foreign applications to invest more than $12.3 million into a business or make a $3.7 million contribution to the government development fund.

Alternatively, applicants can make a nearly $50,000 contribution to the government fund for residency approval and then apply for full citizenship after 10 years.

Source: US billionaires’ demand for ‘golden passport’ schemes rockets by 337% in three years

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Apex Capital Partners Launches Discounted Citizenship by Investment Program for Concerned Citizens Following Flood of Inquiries from Conservative Americans Looking to Relocate Abroad After Biden’s Presidential Victory

2020/11/26 Leave a comment

Almost funny but reflects a certain mindset (don’t recall any similar pitches from citizenship-by-investment firms targeted at Democrats following Trump’s election (the Cape Breton site encouraging Americans was more a welcome site):

 Apex Capital Partners, a boutique financial advisory firm specializing in advising international individuals and governments on Citizenship by Investment Programs (CIPs), today announced the availability of its “American Second Passport Program,” a new option intended for US citizens who are concerned with the country’s direction under President-Elect Joe Biden, and are now serious about moving abroad. Ultimately, CIPs provide individuals and their families with the legal means for acquiring second citizenships, passports and permanent residency in other countries, often in the Caribbean or Europe.

Apex Capital Partners typically receives approximately five inquiries from American citizens per year but is now hearing from numerous concerned citizens on a daily basis, experiencing a 650% increase in interest since the November 3rd election alone, when compared to 2019. This comes as no surprise, as leading up to the election the team has been inundated with requests from high net worth individuals, particularly conservatives, seeking to relocate abroad should now President-Elect Biden emerge victorious. Now, the Company is offering 35% off its American Second Passport Program until January 20, 2020 – Inauguration Day.

Many Americans are now very concerned about proposed significant increases to their income tax payments, as well as continued social unrest. Further, this year’s “American nightmare” fueled by COVID-19 has resulted in very restricted travel for Americans, limiting recreational or business trips for anyone possessing just a US passport. For these reasons, citizenship by investment in other parts of the world is widely considered a safe, financially secure passport diversification option.

Americans concerned by a Biden administration are turning to Apex Capital Partners, a leading, internationally recognized Company that works directly with both international governments and those pursuing citizenship abroad to implement strategies needed to acquire foreign citizenships. These alternative citizenship opportunities are made possible through CIPs, a legal transaction in the form of a real estate or infrastructure investment in exchange for citizenship, in countries such as the Caribbean and Europe – with popular examples such as St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Grenada and Montenegro.

“CIPs are especially valuable now for three key reasons. One, with an alternative to a US passport, travelers and business executives can bypass the current travel COVID 19 restrictions in place. Two, people can reside in a safe, unthreatened place amid shaky US social and political conditions that they perceive are dangerous. Lastly and right now the most popular reason, is that citizenship abroad enables for more financial security and often reduced taxes – a concern felt by many conservatives and HNWI,” said Nuri Katz, Founder of Apex Capital Partners.

Interest to leave the country after Biden’s victory has also been expressed publicly to the nation by none other than President Trump himself, who recently suggested “maybe I’ll have to leave the country.” Prior to the outcome of the 2016 Election, many liberal individuals and families across the country threatened to leave if Trump was elected. Some people left, while many more turned to social media to state their displeasure with Trump’s administration. Four years later, the same trend came during the first 2020 presidential debate, when Google searches for “move to Canada” greatly spiked.

“Talk about leaving the country after an election outcome is certainly not new, but we’re now seeing it become a reality after such a difficult year. In 2017, around 5,000 people internationally obtained CIPs, but this year I estimate it to be 25,000,” said Katz. “Despite all the potential and personal reasons for wanting to leave the United States, it is still a very difficult decision and should be conducted with an experienced team of migration advisors as well as tax and legal professionals. Using a network of legal advisors, our team informs investors on viable options to seek citizenship and evaluate all financial consequences. Throughout this process, we’re here to help answer any and all questions.”

About Apex Capital Partners

Apex Capital Partners is a full-service advisory firm specializing in investment consulting and wealth management for a multinational, high-net-worth clientele. APEX provides services with end-to-end execution in areas such as second citizenship and immigration, wealth and asset management, financial services, and international real estate sale and development.

For more than two decades, APEX consultants have guided affluent individuals and their families through the complexities of foreign investing, and of obtaining second citizenship and residency. The APEX team also advises governments in establishing Citizenship by Investment programs, and provides support services to financial institutions, law firms, and family offices representing the interests of high-net-worth investors. For those interested in pursuing a citizenship by investment opportunity, please contact Apex Capital Partners by visiting http://apexcapital.partners/

Source: Apex Capital Partners Launches Discounted Citizenship by Investment Program for Concerned Citizens Following Flood of Inquiries from Conservative Americans Looking to Relocate Abroad After Biden’s Presidential Victory

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Has Trump increased U.S. immigration to Canada?

2020/10/03 Leave a comment

Good analysis by Kareem El-Assal (spoiler, mainly US residents, not citizens, overall not much in percentage terms):

Each year, Canada targets roughly 60 per cent of its new permanent resident arrivals under economic class immigration programs. In addition, it welcomes just over 25 per cent under the family class, and the remaining 15 per cent on refugee and humanitarian grounds.

When we solely focus on immigrants arriving from the United States under the economic class, we see there has been an exponential increase since 2015.

One may think the purpose of looking at the 2015 to 2020 period is to assess the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump on immigration to Canada.

However, using 2015 as the reference period is useful because it marks the year Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) overhauled the way it manages economic class applications. That year, it introduced Express Entry to manage skilled worker applications in a more dynamic and quick fashion.

The number of immigrants coming to Canada from the U.S. under Express Entryhas risen by leaps and bounds. Upon Express Entry’s launch in 2015, only 600 U.S. residents obtained invitations to apply for permanent residence. Last year, this figure stood at over 10,000 people.

The big question is: How much of this is due to Trump?

Understanding U.S. immigration to Canada

It is important to make a distinction between U.S. citizens immigrating to Canada, and U.S. residents immigrating to Canada.

Most of those who move north as skilled workers are actually U.S. residents. They are individuals who lived in the U.S. for whatever reason, be it as workers or students, for example, and then decided that they wanted to pursue permanent residence in Canada.

The number of U.S. citizens arriving as economic class immigrants has also increased on an absolute basis since 2015. There were 4,800 individuals who did so in 2019 compared with 3,300 in 2015.

One may attribute this to Trump, however it would be a mistake to do so.

On a relative basis, U.S. citizens have comprised about 2 per cent of all new economic class immigrants welcomed by Canada since 2015.

The reason that more such U.S. citizens have come to Canada over this period is because Canada has increased its overall immigration levels from 272,000 in 2015 to 341,000 in 2019.

So, there has not been a “Trump bump” among U.S. citizens immigrating to Canada.

Now, what about U.S. residents immigrating to Canada?

“Trump Bump” is likely one factor for higher immigration among U.S. residents

IRCC’s Express Entry data shows that just over 10,000 individuals residing in the U.S. obtained permanent residence invitations in 2019. This figure was also 10,000 in 2018, but was 6,000 in 2017, and only 600 in 2015.

IRCC’s data suggests that roughly 85 per cent of these individuals were non-U.S. citizens residing in the U.S. upon the time of invitation. We presume this by subtracting the number of total invitations from the number of U.S. citizens who received invitations (about 10,200 total invitations subtracted by 1,600 U.S. citizens).

One explanation is that again, Canada’s overall immigration increased and IRCC has steadily processed more applications through Express Entry over this period. However, this cannot explain the nearly twenty-fold growth in U.S. residents succeeding under Express Entry.

There are other factors that we need to look at, and Trump is one of them.

In the absence of concrete evidence, we cannot assume a causal linkage between the Trump presidency and higher immigration from the U.S. However, it is highly probably that the immigration uncertainty in the U.S. has contributed to more residents in the U.S. moving to Canada.

It is important to remember, however, that while Trump may not have helped matters, uncertainty for immigrant hopefuls in the U.S. has existed for decades now. Although the U.S. has a population that is nine times bigger than Canada’s and a labour market that is eight times bigger, it welcomes about the same number of skilled immigrants each year as Canada.

This means there are simply not enough spots available for individuals looking to remain in the U.S. as permanent residents.

This issue long predates Trump and is one likely to linger following the November 3rd presidential election. Irrespective of who wins the election, the U.S. is unlikely to increase its permanent residence allocation to a level that would satisfy the demand of aspiring skilled workers and American employers. Come January 2021, the President and Congress will be laser-focused on America’s COVID-19 recovery.

On a practical level, it may prove difficult for U.S. politicians to explore welcoming more immigrants given the ongoing recession in the U.S. caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.

Hence, we can expect immigration among U.S. residents to remain strong in the coming years as such individuals move to Canada in pursuit of certainty.

Certainty is exactly what Canada offers the growing number of U.S. residents that have moved here since 2015. Canada has a stable immigration system with a growing level of permanent residence spots that successful candidates can secure in six months or less. This is a system that Canada put in place prior to Trump’s arrival, and will help it lure many more talented individuals from its southern neighbour well beyond the Trump presidency.

Source: Has Trump increased U.S. immigration to Canada?

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Americans increasingly refused entry to Canada, documents show

2017/03/31 Leave a comment

Interesting trend and possible explanation (not provided by CBSA):

While many Canadians are concerned about having problems at the United States border, it is Americans who are having difficulties visiting Canada with the number turned away rising by 31 per cent last year, La Presse has learned.

According to federal documents, 30,233 Americans were turned away when attempting to enter Canada in 2016. In 2015, 23,052 people were turned back, representing an increase of 31 per cent in one year.

The numbers are all the more striking when compared to 2014, when 7,509 American citizens were refused entry to Canada. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), which is responsible for border security, would not provide reasons for the increase.

“The CBSA is not in a position to speculate,” said Nicholas Dorion, a spokesperson for the agency. “The number of people turned away at the border fluctuates from year to year.”

The announcement of a new intelligence sharing agreement between Ottawa and Washington in 2013 likely played a role, according to Tamara Mosher Kuczer, a lawyer specializing in immigration matters with the law office Capelle Kane in Ottawa.

Under the deal, Canadian border agents can more easily detect Americans with a criminal record who show up at the border. Infractions, some decades old, could not be detected before the deal.

“We receive many more demands from people who travelled for years to Canada without a problem and who are now refused entry for a drinking and driving infractions that dates back 40 years,” the lawyer said.

The CBSA refused to detail the reasons for the 30,233 refusals of American travellers last year. People turned back at the border generally receive “permission to leave,” the federal agency said.

“If an individual is suspected of being prohibited from Canadian territory by a Canadian border agent for a reason cited by the Immigration and Refugee Act, the agent must always consider authorizing the person to leave Canada voluntarily,” said Dorion. “When the agent at the border authorizes a person to take back their request to enter Canada they have to proceed by providing a formula entitled ‘authorized to leave Canada’ “

It is the ‘authorized to leave Canada’ documents that La Presse was able to consult under the Access to Information Act.

Since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadians are less frequently turned away at the U.S. border. According to The Canadian Press, the number of Canadians refused entry at American land crossings dropped by 8.5 per cent over the last five months. That means that 6,875 Canadians could not get across the border between October 2016 and February 2017, compared to 7,619 in the same period a year earlier.

Source: Americans increasingly refused entry to Canada, documents show | Toronto Star

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