More commentary on the immigration levels plan
2024/10/28 Leave a comment
The Axworthy comment is particularly biting with respect to immigration and the [mis] functioning of cabinet government and ministerial responsibilities:
Argitis: Trudeau’s new policy upshot? First population decline since 1867: It was a spectacular economic policy error, followed by a spectacular reversal.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government announced on Thursday that it will implement sharp cuts to immigration flows, bringing Canada’s rapid population growth to an abrupt halt. The move, aimed at easing a housing crisis after an unprecedented increase in immigration over the past two years, could have significant effects on wages, interest rates, and the broader economy.
With immigration cuts, Ottawa is rethinking its economic principles: For many years, the federal Liberal Party made strong immigration a central plank of its economic plan for Canada, inviting scores of skilled workers to the country to slow demographic aging. In a policy U-turn, the government’s pro-growth ethos is now on pause.
Ottawa announced at a news conference Thursday that it’s cutting back immigration levels over the next three years, breaking a trend of steady increases. Combined with efforts to reduce temporary resident numbers, Canada’s population is set to post small declines in 2025 and 2026.
It amounts to a dramatic reversal. The country’s population grew by 3.2 per cent last year – the quickest pace since the late 1950s – or nearly 1.3 million people. Canada has ranked among the fastest-growing countries in recent years, easily outpacing its Group of Seven peers.
Axworthy | Justin Trudeau has infantilized his ministers. They need more power for our government to work: That trust has been shattered. Economic consultants from McKinsey promoted population growth as an economic lever. Business lobbies pushed for temporary foreign workers to meet labour shortages, and provincial governments used international students to solve funding shortfalls in higher education. Immigration policy became a tool to solve non-immigration issues, and ministerial leadership was sacrificed in favor of PMO decisions. The result is a system that is now crumbling under the weight of limited ministerial guidance and misaligned priorities.
Wherry: Trudeau’s Liberals are trying to save the Canadian consensus on immigration — and their legacy: It’s too early to say whether the last few years have done any lasting damage to the public’s attitude toward immigration — or whether any future government will see something to be gained from cutting the flow of newcomers even more. But it’s possible that both the broad direction established by the Liberals and the basic imperatives that underpinned the Canadian consensus will prevail.
The federal government’s new targets represent a significant decrease from recent years. In each of the last three years, more than 400,000 people have become permanent residents; that annual intake number is now set to fall to 365,000 by 2027. But that still represents an increase over immigration levels during the previous Conservative government’s time in office — from 2006 to 2015, annual totals were never lower than 237,000 and never higher than 272,000.
While Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has heaped scorn on the Liberals over their handling of the immigration file, he also has stopped short of saying he would implement actual cuts. He has said only that he would use an unspecified “mathematical formula” — one that takes into account housing construction and access to health care services — to determine Canada’s immigration targets.
It’s also notable (though perhaps not surprising) that, the swing in public opinion notwithstanding, the federal government’s announcement this week has drawn some criticism and concern — from economists and business groups, but also provincial politicians.
