MPI: Repealing Birthright Citizenship Would Significantly Increase the Size of the U.S. Unauthorized Population

2025/05/20 Leave a comment

Of note. Canadian non-resident self-pay births for temporary residents and those on visitor visa suggest equivalent Canadian numbers of those who could be affected would be around 5,000:

Ending birthright citizenship for children born on U.S. soil to unauthorized immigrants or certain other non-citizens would have a contrary result from its stated aim of reducing the unauthorized immigrant population. New estimates from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and Penn State’s Population Research Institute demonstrate how repeal would significantly swell the size of the unauthorized population—now and for generations to come. 

The new projections show that ending birthright citizenship for U.S.-born children with parents who are either unauthorized immigrants or temporary visa holders (or a combination of the two) would increase the unauthorized population by an additional 2.7 million by 2045 and by 5.4 million by 2075. 

Each year, an average of about 255,000 children born on U.S. soil would start life without U.S. citizenship based on their parents’ legal status, the research shows. 

President Donald Trump on his first day back in office signed an executive order ending birthright citizenship for children born to certain non-citizens. The order, which has been stayed by the courts amid questions over its constitutionality, specifies that going forward, only children born to at least one U.S.-citizen or lawful permanent resident parent would automatically acquire U.S. citizenship. The Supreme Court on Thursday will hold an oral argument on the issue. 

Beyond significantly adding to an unauthorized immigrant population that MPI estimates stood at 13.7 million as of mid-2023, the end of birthright citizenship for many children would create a self-perpetuating, multi-generational underclass—with U.S.-born residents inheriting the social disadvantage borne by their parents and even, over time, their grandparents and great-grandparents. By 2075, there would be 1.7 million U.S. born who were the children of two parents who had themselves been born in the United States, yet would nonetheless lack legal status, the authors estimate. 

“This creation of a class of U.S.-born residents deprived of the rights that citizenship conveys to their neighbors, classmates and work colleagues could sow the seeds for significant disruption to economic mobility and social cohesion in the years and decades ahead,” Jennifer Van Hook, Michael Fix and Julia Gelatt write in the analysis published today. 

The researchers’ projections use assumptions that in-migration, out-migration and fertility rates will hold steady. Yet even if the U.S. government fully sealed the border against illegal entries and ramped up deportations significantly, changes to birthright citizenship would still result in an unauthorized population that is 1.3 million larger in 2045 than it would be if current birthright citizenship interpretations held. 

Read the analysis here: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/birthright-citizenship-repeal-projections. 

Source: Repealing Birthright Citizenship Would Significantly Increase the Size of the U.S. Unauthorized Population

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Is Canadian citizenship mostly a convenience? A new study counters the myth

2025/05/20 Leave a comment

Another informative and relevant analysis by StatsCan, providing evidence regarding “Canadians of convenience:”

Contrary to public impression, Canadian citizenship turns out to be more a sign of an immigrant’s commitment to the country than a convenience to leave for greener pastures.

In fact, according to a new Statistics Canada report, immigrants from developed countries and those who took longer to become citizens were the ones more likely to leave the country after getting their citizenship.

“Among naturalized immigrants, active presence typically exceeded 90 per cent in the 10th year after immigration,” said the report released on Friday. “It showed minimal variation across educational levels, official language profiles, age at immigration and immigration classes.”

The findings debunk the myth that immigrants are “Canadians of convenience,” who take advantage of citizenship for the privilege of a Canadian passport but have no intention to stay and keep ties with their adopted homeland.

“It demolishes largely the argument that people just get citizenship so they have mobility and they can leave the country to pursue opportunities,” said Andrew Griffith, an expert on Canadian citizenship.

“There aren’t as many citizens of convenience as people might think. That actually is a measure of a longer-term commitment to Canada.” 

Based on immigration and income tax filing data, the Statistics Canada study examined the relationship between citizenship acquisition and the “active presence” of immigrants in Canada. 

While the absence of an individual’s tax record can mean the person either left Canada or remained in the country without filing taxes, it is unlikely an immigrant living in Canada would stop filing taxes after acquiring citizenship because it gives them access to benefits and services here.

Among immigrants admitted from 2008 to 2012, and 25 to 54 years old at admission, 93 per cent of those who became citizens had an active presence in Canada 10 years later, compared to 67 per cent of their counterparts who did not acquire citizenship.

These rates were higher than that of the immigrant cohorts admitted between 2003 and 2007 — 91 per cent for citizens and 58 per cent for non-citizens. This suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to stay in the country.

Immigrants from developed countries had lower active presence in Canada after 10 years than their counterparts from the developing world. Among naturalized citizens, for instance, 97 per cent of those from the Philippines remained active in Canada a decade after immigration — about 10 percentage points higher than their American and French counterparts, and six percentage points above those from the U.K..

However, among immigrants who didn’t acquire Canadian citizenship, whether they stayed or left relates more to other factors. Those with a graduate degree, who spoke English or French or came as economic immigrants have a remarkably lower presence in Canada after 10 years.

Daniel Bernhard, CEO of the Institute for Canadian Citizenship, said the uptake of Canadian citizenship has been on decline, and the real challenge is for Canada to convince immigrants who have “global options” to stay and devote their talents to the country for the long term.

“Highly educated people are mobile and we select more highly educated people, and that’s going to be part of it,” he said. “Circumstances here are also changing. It’s becoming harder to succeed, to buy properties and get ahead. Most people come here to build a better life. If we can’t provide it, they will take their families and their talents elsewhere.”

The report also tracked immigrants with no tax records and found that about 28 per cent of them had Canadian citizenship. About half of inactive immigrants from Iran were citizens, followed by 39 per cent among inactive Pakistani immigrants and 36 per cent from Colombia. In contrast, only 14 per cent of inactive American immigrants were citizens.

To be granted Canadian citizenship, a permanent resident currently must have lived in the country for at least three years out of the last five, demonstrate language proficiency in English or French, pass a citizenship test and take an oath.

The new report suggests those rules are working, said Griffith.

“You can still argue is it meaningful enough and if we have to change the oath and all those things,” he said. “But I think in a grosso modo sense, people are coming and they’re basically staying despite the retention issues. It’s not a big difference between citizens and non-citizens. I think we’ve roughly got the balance right.”

Source: Is Canadian citizenship mostly a convenience? A new study counters the myth

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Cabinet diversity 2025

2025/05/14 Leave a comment

While media coverage and commentary has understandably focused on gender parity, regional representation and the balance between old and new faces, the table below broadens this analysis to include visible and religious minorities, immigrants, Indigenous and LGTBQ.

In terms of visible minorities, there are 6 South Asians, one Black, one West Asian/Arab and one Filipino. Religious minorities or background include three Sikhs, two Jews, one Muslim and one Hindu.

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Proportion of women in the House of Commons dips, with slight rise in minority MPs

2025/05/01 Leave a comment

Latest article with preliminary analysis of 2025 election results in terms of MP diversity:

…In Canada, Indigenous representation in the House also dipped slightly, according to an analysis by Andrew Griffith, a fellow of the Environics Institute and a former director-general in the federal immigration department. He found that 3.3 per cent of elected MPs are Indigenous after this election, down from 3.5 per cent in 2021. 

However, there was a slight rise in the number of visible minority MPs. Mr. Griffith found that their representation stands at 18.1 per cent now, compared with 15.7 per cent at the last election. 

“We appear to have reached a plateau with respect to women and Indigenous peoples MPs,” he said in an e-mail.

“On the other hand, the combination of growth in immigration and visible minorities, matched with most political party candidates being visible minorities in ridings with high numbers of visible minorities and immigrants, continues the trend of increases in their representation.”…

Source: Proportion of women in the House of Commons dips, with slight rise in minority MPs

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Number of female candidates drops across parties: study

2025/04/23 Leave a comment

Results of the preliminary analysis by Jerome Black and myself:

…Mr. Griffith, who has carried out similar research for previous elections, said he was surprised to see the drop in the proportion of female candidates, particularly among the Conservatives. They had a lot of candidates in place soon after the election was called, whereas the NDP and Liberals were later with nominations, he said.

“It’s surprising that the number of women standing for the Conservatives actually declined very significantly: a third of the nominations in 2021 to not even a quarter of the nominations in 2025,” he said. “Conservatives actually made a concerted effort to recruit visible minorities, but they seem to have dropped the ball with respect to women.”

He said some women may have been deterred from standing by the rise in abuse directed toward female politicians.

“It’s certainly part of it,” he said. “But I’m still surprised at such a dramatic decline.”

Source: Number of female candidates drops across parties: study

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Party Platform Immigration and Citizenship Comparison: Quick Look

2025/04/23 2 Comments

Here is my quick comparative table on the specific immigration and citizenship commitments of the four major parties. Striking no specific mention of either immigration or citizenship in NDP platform:

Party Platform Comparisons Election 2025Download

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Blogging break and election candidate diversity analysis

2025/04/12 Leave a comment

Will be pausing my blog for the next while as I concentrate on the analysis of candidate diversity (gender, Indigenous, visible minority, religious minority, immigration history, and LGBTQ.

Will do the occasional post of election or immigration related articles during this period.

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Kaufmann: If ‘Woke’ Puritanism Is the Disease, Trump’s Amoral Populism Isn’t the Cure

2025/04/12 Leave a comment

Funny to see some of the critics of left wokism become woke to the dangers of right-wing populist wokism and the failure of the right wing intelligentcia to counter the inherent destructiveness of Trump and his acolytes and sycophants:

To what extent should a society demand adherence to moral norms? Three months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, it’s a question worth asking. Having rejected the puritanical “woke” moralism of the 2010s and early 2020s, Americans are now enduring the opposite problem: Trump and his chief corporate enabler, Elon Musk, have over-corrected, embracing a morality-free style of governance fuelled entirely by a drive to hoard power and punish their enemies.

…This behaviour isn’t just amoral and anti-democratic. It’s juvenile. Trump and Musk have become America’s trolls-in-chief—as exemplified by the White House’s posting of an AI-generated cartoon depicting an immigrant crying in handcuffs. This type of “shitposting” is the furthest thing from presidential.

What makes this descent into power-drunk nihilism all the more regrettable is that it’s come on the heels of a historic “vibe shift”: Many serious liberals and centrists joined the campaign against woke overreach. The most interesting new ideas on the left have been coming from moderate leftists such as Matthew Yglesias, Noah Smith, and Ezra Klein, who leaven their pro-immigration sympathies with respect for border control.

In light of this, the intellectual right had a chance to broaden its coalition, and fashion what I’ve termed a “rational populist” consensus that marginalises leftist extremism. Such a development could, among other things, dispel the stigmatisation of “whiteness” and manhood pervading progressive discourse—which itself has become a source of populist grievance. More generally, it would also help spark a return to a moral consensus that promotes cultural wealth, personal resilience, and classical liberal values such as free speech and equality among group identities.

Trump could have shown the world a way forward by embracing this challenge. Instead, he’s provided a dark cautionary tale about what happens when a nation’s leader throws off all moral constraints.

Source: If ‘Woke’ Puritanism Is the Disease, Trump’s Amoral Populism Isn’t the Cure

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Urback: Trump’s policies will send asylum seekers to Canada’s border. What’s our plan?

2025/04/12 Leave a comment

Ongoing issue. One encouraging aspect is that virtually all are entering through official border crossings, number of RCMP interceptions appear stable according to February data:

…Yet even if Mr. Trump leaves the STCA intact, Canada should be ready for a crisis anew at our border with the U.S. (which will only compound the crisis we already have with international student no-shows, and the thousands of international students who have claimed asylum amid policy changes in order to stay in the country). Before he left office, Justin Trudeau committed $1.3-billion to tackle a contrived fentanyl crisis at the U.S.-Canada border. Now that Mr. Trump has revealed that his claimed rationale for his tariffs were an utter fabrication, Canada needs to allocate those funds – and then some – toward the real crisis.

Source: Trump’s policies will send asylum seekers to Canada’s border. What’s our plan?

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Elcioglu: Why are so many second-generation South Asian and Chinese Canadians planning to vote Conservative?

2025/04/12 1 Comment

Striking that this analysis does not compare outreach efforts of the Harper government, that the same immigrant and visible minority ridings switch between parties in both federal and provincial elections, nor acknowledge that in general, ethnic communities tend to follow the overall electoral changes and demographics. The general trend in this election until recently showed younger voters whatever their group, increasingly conservative given housing and other basic concerns. Would also have been nice to see some gender analysis as the overall shift is more with men than women.

Hard economic realities more influential IMO:

…In Canada, ideas about who belongs are often shaped by race, class and respectability. Racialized people must not only prove they are hardworking and law-abiding, but also demonstrate that they’ve “fit in.” For some, voting Conservative becomes a way to show they’ve done just that — a way of saying: “I’m not like them. I’m one of you.”

But this strategy comes at a cost. In reinforcing the very structures that marginalize them, racialized voters may gain individual recognition while deepening collective exclusion. And in rejecting equity-based platforms, they may forgo the policies that could build a more just society.

This dynamic isn’t limited to the second generation. A recent CBC survey found that four in five newcomers believe Canada has accepted too many immigrants and international students without proper planning. 

Some immigrants are increasingly expressing exclusionary views, often toward those who arrived more recently. This, too, is a form of aspirational politics. And it shows just how deeply race, precarity and belonging are entangled in Canada today.

None of this means that racialized Conservative voters are naïve. Their decisions often reflect a clear-eyed understanding of how power works. 

But if we want a fairer political future, we must reckon with the ways race, class and nationalism shape belonging — not just at the ballot box, but in the stories we tell about who gets to be “Canadian.”

As sociologist Ruha Benjamin reminds us, inclusion shouldn’t be treated as an act of generosity. It’s not about “helping” the marginalized — it’s about understanding that we’re all connected. When fear shapes policy and public goods are stripped away, everyone suffers.

Source: Why are so many second-generation South Asian and Chinese Canadians planning to vote Conservative?

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