The diversity of candidates and MPs stalled for some groups in this election

My latest collaboration with Jerome Black on the diversity of candidates and MPs. Stall for women and visible minorities, ongoing increase for visible minorities.

In summary, differences in political-party representation reflect dissimilarities in demographic trends (such as higher growth rates of visible minorities), overall election dynamics, political-party recruitment efforts, and the extent to which groups feel their concerns are reflected in political platforms and messaging.

Source: The diversity of candidates and MPs stalled for some groups in this election

American transgender woman files asylum claim in Canada after Trump’s edict on gender

To watch:

An American transgender woman has lodged an asylum claim in Canada, in what her lawyers say is a test case of whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s edicts on gender and other recent measures restricting equality rights constitute persecution.

Hannah Kreager, from Arizona, on Monday lodged an asylum claim with the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada on the grounds that she has a well-founded fear of persecution in the U.S.

“This case is about safety. It’s about whether Canada will recognize the threat Hannah faces in the U.S.,” her lawyer Yameena Ansari said.

She said Canada considers the U.S. as a safe country to live in, but this is no longer true if you are transgender.

Ms. Ansari added Mr. Trump has singled out transgender people through executive orders, including one saying the federal government recognizes two sexes only – male and female. She said this has trickled down into a wider erosion of their rights and protections across the U.S.

She said the case is “precedent-setting on the basis of it not being safe in the U.S. for being trans.”

Source: American transgender woman files asylum claim in Canada after Trump’s edict on gender

Christopher Dummitt: Systemic discrimination is legal in Canada

Apart from the header, valid questions although I am not convinced the DEI programs necessarily “exacerbate ethnic conflict in Canada:”

…The question is: how long will this remain the case? And, even more importantly, what counts as evidence for disadvantage? Who gets to decide whether current-day disadvantage comes from discriminatory treatment or not?

The reality is that different social groups have different social outcomes. As Thomas Sowell pointed out years ago, it would be bizarre to think that they wouldn’t. The question is: are these differences a result of choices, cultures and random chance — or are they a more nefarious expression of discrimination, either systemic or outright?

One of the odd things to happen in our intellectual circles — our universities and even our law schools — is that this question is rarely asked with an open-ended curiosity as to what the answer might be.

One wonders whether it even comes up when employers or universities set about establishing discriminatory affirmative action programs. Or, more likely, are they working from a consensus within the institution that there really are disadvantaged groups — and that this is obviously caused by discrimination?

We should be clear: it’s entirely possible that disadvantages are caused by subtle forms of discrimination that continue despite Canada’s now very equal legal system. It’s certainly possible — and the idea ought to get a fair hearing.

But in many progressive circles today, it’s now considered rude to even ask the question — to wonder whether social and economic differences between groups might be caused by something other than prejudice.

This is why the topic of viewpoint diversity — in our universities, our law schools, in the world of expertise — isn’t the esoteric topic it might seem.

Even as the wider Canadian society seems to be retreating from the excesses of cancel culture and woke shibboleths (good news on that front), the staffing of our knowledge institutions, our universities and our law schools still overwhelmingly comes from those on the left — from the same groups who assume that socioeconomic variation is, de facto, linked to discrimination.

These are the people who get to decide when — if ever — the only legal form of systemic discrimination allowed in Canada (affirmative action) will ever end.

There’s plenty of evidence coming out of think-tanks and even Statistics Canada that the Canada of 2025 has moved a long way from the Canada of 1981, where affirmative action was justified. The most economically well-to-do Canadians are not those of European ancestry — despite the popular perception to the contrary. The groups of Canadians with the highest income — and highest levels of educational attainment — are those of South Asian and Chinese ancestry. Whites tend to come in the middle of the pack, while Black Canadians and Indigenous people are lower down the economic scale. If affirmative action is going to continue, the public needs to be reassured that those justifying its existence, at the very least, keep up to date with which groups are up and which are down — though even this framing shows how divisive such policies would be.

There’s also plenty of evidence that the “race conscious” programs allowed by the Charter — and pushed by DEI advocates — actually exacerbate ethnic conflict in Canada.

There could, of course, be evidence that continued systemic discrimination justifies affirmative action. But it would help to know that the organizations instituting these types of progressive discrimination are at least open to the idea that Canada can, and will, move on.

Source: Christopher Dummitt: Systemic discrimination is legal in Canada

Savoie: Public service reform is only possible if the Prime Minister champions the project

Yep:

…The government’s agenda can be developed by asking a series of questions. What government structure is needed to promote a unified, single Canadian economy? How can we best redirect resources to high-priority areas such as trade and national defence? How can Ottawa pull back from more areas of provincial jurisdiction? The federal government has nearly 300 organizations, and it’s time to weed out those that are past their best-before dates; the same can be said about some federal government programs. 

But unless the Prime Minister ensures that these questions are answered and action is taken, the government will be like the proverbial goldfish, going around and around in its bowl repeating nice castle, nice castle

Source: Public service reform is only possible if the Prime Minister champions the project

Hiebert: Canada’s Future Depends on Where Immigrants Settle, Not Just How Many Are Welcomed

 Good analysis by my friend Dan Hiebert noting the needed linkages between immigration and other policies:

Immigration alone cannot solve Canada’s regional and demographic challenges, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. Immigration must be paired with regional development; otherwise, Canada risks exacerbating the divide between fast- and slow-growth regions while placing even greater strain on already pressured large urban centres.

In “Fast vs. Slow: How Different Immigration Rates Can Impact Canada’s Economic Challenges and Regional Disparities,” Daniel Hiebert finds that regardless of the number of immigrants Canada welcomes, settlement patterns result in only modest population growth in slower-growth regions.

“Regionalization policies like Provincial Nominee Programs have helped newcomers to settle beyond the big three cities,” said Hiebert. “But the real test is whether they stay – secondary migration is pulling people right back into fast-growing areas.”

Hiebert argues that a multi-stage immigration process – such as beginning with temporary status – can help slower-growth regions retain newcomers by giving them time to build social and economic ties before settling permanently.

“If we’re judging the system by how well it supports all parts of the country, it’s coming up short,” Hiebert added. “Immigration can certainly help address Canada’s demographic challenges, but it’s not the only tool – we need broader regional development to make it work.”

The report emphasizes the need for Canada to pair immigration initiatives with broader efforts to strengthen local economic opportunities, access to services, and overall community attractiveness. It also outlines several policy recommendations to help slow-growth regions thrive, including investing in infrastructure, fast-tracking credentials, and supporting the growth of promising mid-sized cities that can absorb growth and ease pressure on major urban centres.

“With housing costs, productivity issues, and an ageing population dominating the national conversation, building growth and resilience across all regions has to be a top priority,” said Hiebert. “It’s not just about the number of newcomers we bring in – it’s about making sure they have the support and opportunities to thrive wherever they settle.”

Read the Full Report

Immigration Canada rembourse certains frais quand les temps d’attente excèdent ses normes

Welcome change and accountability:

Alors que les délais d’attente de traitement en immigration font de plus en plus la manchette, Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada (IRCC) dépense de plus en plus d’argent pour rembourser des immigrants après ne pas avoir respecté ses propres normes de service.

Cette mesure encore très peu connue a coûté 1,68 million de dollars au ministère fédéral l’an dernier, considérablement plus que l’année précédente, lors de laquelle seulement 72 000 $ avaient été déboursés. Cette politique, qui découle de la Loi sur les frais de service, n’est en vigueur que depuis 2021, et certains des services d’IRCC ne se sont ajoutés à la liste qu’en 2023. Les données pour 2024-2025 seront disponibles l’automne prochain, a indiqué un relationniste au Devoir.

Le remboursement est « automatique », c’est-à-dire que la personne qui a déposé un dossier n’a pas à le demander. « Toutefois, la délivrance peut prendre un certain temps », souvent « entre 2 à 8 semaines », indiquent plusieurs pages d’IRCC. La remise de frais déjà engagés n’est pas non plus à hauteur de 100 % : selon le nombre de jours excédant le délai affiché, ce sont 25 ou 50 % des frais qui sont renvoyés à l’expéditeur. Il s’agit donc, pour la plupart des bénéficiaires, de quelques dizaines ou centaines de dollars tout au plus.

« C’est du jamais vu en 15 ans de carrière », a commenté, surpris, l’avocat en immigration Maxime Lapointe. L’un de ses clients a récemment été avisé par courriel que le montant qu’il a payé à IRCC serait remboursé à 50 %. « Dans le contexte économique actuel, rembourser une partie des frais de traitement est contre-intuitif, car le travail des fonctionnaires est fait quand même », note-t-il.

Surtout, le « client » qui a entamé ces démarches « sort aussi échaudé de son expérience avec IRCC », poursuit Me Lapointe.

Ce ministère fédéral est souvent critiqué, notamment en raison de l’impossibilité de parler à un agent ou à la suite de refus sans demande de document supplémentaire.

Ces remboursements sont en fait si peu connus que deux associations qui représentent des immigrants ont confié au Devoir ne pas être au courant, et donc ne pas pouvoir commenter.

Source: Immigration Canada rembourse certains frais quand les temps d’attente excèdent ses normes

As immigration processing waits are making headlines, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is spending more and more money to reimburse immigrants after not meeting its own standards of service.

This measure, which is still very little known, cost the federal prosecutor’s office $1.68 million last year, considerably more than the previous year, when only $72,000 was disbursed. This policy, which stems from the Service Fees Act, has only been in effect since 2021, and some of the IRCC services were not added to the list until 2023. Data for 2024-2025 will be available next fall, a relations officer told Le Devoir.

The refund is “automatic”, i.e. the person who filed a file does not have to request it. “However, the delivery can take a certain time”, often “between 2 and 8 weeks”, indicate several pages of IRCC. The remission of expenses already incurred is also not up to 100%: depending on the number of days exceeding the posted deadline, 25 or 50% of the costs are returned to the sender. It is therefore, for most beneficiaries, a few tens or hundreds of dollars at most.

“This is unprecedented in 15 years of career,” commented immigration lawyer Maxime Lapointe, surprised. One of his clients was recently notified by email that the amount he paid to IRCC would be refunded at 50%. “In the current economic context, reimbursing part of the processing costs is counterintuitive, because the work of civil servants is done anyway,” he notes.

Above all, the “client” who started these procedures “also comes out scalded from his experience with IRCC,” continues Me Lapointe.

This federal ministry is often criticized, in particular because of the impossibility of speaking to an officer or as a result of refusal without requesting additional documentation.

These refunds are in fact so little known that two associations representing immigrants have told the Devoir that they are not aware, and therefore cannot comment.

Peter Csillag: Is ending the Temporary Foreign Worker Program a good idea? 

More reasonable assessment and approach than that of MP Jivani’s call to abolish the program complemely save for agriculture workers. And good question for policymakers and politicians to ponder and influence policy changes:

…A question for government policymakers would be how to incentivize the private sector to make large-scale training investments for underemployed Canadians, and just as importantly, how to make in-demand professions appealing for young adults and underemployed Canadians? There’s no single answer given that needs would vary across regions and sectors.

There are international examples that serve as a useful start. Germany has a dual education system integrating school-based learning with work-based practice. Approximately 52 percent of young Germans complete dual vocational education and training apprenticeships, and in many instances, they are offered long-term positions at the same companies where they trained. It maintains the country’s status as an industrial powerhouse while proactively addressing youth unemployment. Adopting such an approach would mean a longer timeline to wind down the TFW program, transitioning employers only gradually away from the program to minimize economic disruption.

For regional priority sectors, the answer may be a provincial role. Last year, the Government of Alberta launched a program specifically to transition temporary foreign workers in the tourism and hospitality industry to permanent residency. To support the province’s ambitious tourism growth agenda, the program allows qualified candidates, foreign workers already living and working in Alberta with a job offer from an Alberta tourism and hospitality employer, to apply under the provincially nominated immigration stream.

The unique challenges facing different regions and sectors mean that ending the TFW program cannot be done overnight, and not without a clear path for training workers and addressing regional economic challenges. But after decades of the program swinging between a “more and faster” and “Canadians first” pendulum, only to be left with the same structural problems and displaced Canadian workers, the time to have this discussion is now.

Source: Peter Csillag: Is ending the Temporary Foreign Worker Program a good idea?

MPI: Seeking to Ramp Up Deportations, the Trump Administration Quietly Expands a Vast Web of Data

The surveillance state in action:

To help accomplish its aim of mass deportations, the Trump administration is tapping into numerous federal, state, and local databases at an unprecedented scale, and making more of them interoperable. The reach into and communication between information storehouses—including ones containing sensitive information about all U.S. residents’ taxes, health, benefits receipt, and addresses—allows U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other authorities to harvest, exchange, and share a vast trove of data. The aim of tapping government and commercial databases appears twofold: attempt to secure large-scale arrests and deportations of removable noncitizens, and instill a sense of fear so that others “self deport.”

The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), launched by Elon Musk, has played an oversized role in this data-leveraging mission, accessing sensitive databases across government agencies and breaking down long-standing silos erected for operational and privacy reasons. And the software company Palantir, a longtime ICE contractor, has been awarded a new contract initially for $30 million to build a “streamlined” database to aid immigration enforcement.

Palantir’s Immigration Lifecycle Operating System (ImmigrationOS) will add to an already formidable arsenal of data available to ICE, including from the private sector. The agency is believed to be among the largest government purchasers of commercial credit, utility, motor vehicle agency, and other information—including airline passenger data, according to recent reporting. By one estimate, in 2022 ICE was able to know the addresses of three out of four U.S. adults—citizen and noncitizen alike.

ICE was established as part of the U.S. counterterrorism and homeland security machinery that was expanded in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. While the post-9/11 enterprise was aimed at foreign terrorists, today’s principal enforcement mission across a range of government agencies is to assist the Trump administration’s quest to carry out 1 million deportations annually.

The government’s tapping into databases with sensitive personal information—including databases never before used for large-scale immigration enforcement, such as voter information—has raised alarm among civil libertarians and security experts, who fear the potential for privacy violations for all U.S. residents and possible exploitation by nefarious actors.

This article looks at the recent efforts to expand ICE’s domestic surveillance and arrest capabilities by giving it access to new databases to build a vast, interoperable data network that can be used for immigration enforcement purposes, with the possibility of future implications for U.S. citizens. It places the current moves within a 25-year legacy of information-sharing initiatives in the immigration realm…

Source: Seeking to Ramp Up Deportations, the Trump Administration Quietly Expands a Vast Web of Data

Shang: America’s talented foreign students could find a home in Canada 

No to tuition-fee discounts, however. Scholarships for the most talented yes. And the scaling back focus is mainly on the college sector, not on the university graduate students that we should aim to attract.

…Canadian policymakers and university administrators need to act boldly, and they need to act now. Outreach will be critical. This is the time to actively promote our universities as not just reputable, but reliable: institutions where academic freedom is protected, immigration pathways are stable, and world-class education leads to long-term opportunity. 

Strategic outreach to high school and university graduates must go beyond general recruitment. Instead, it should signal with clarity and ambition that Canada is ready to welcome the talent that once defaulted to America. Administratively, universities should simplify credit transfer systems for students wishing to shift mid-degree from the U.S. to Canada. Financially, there can be partial scholarships or tuition-fee discounts for U.S.-based international students affected by policy changes. This requires a rethink of our immigration policies, given that Canada has been scaling back student visas. The federal government, the provinces and university administrators should work together to fast-track visas for talented students. 

Recruiting efforts should not only be limited to students. Many world-renowned researchers and professors are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the instability and politicization of academia in America, and some have already chosen to move to Canadian institutions. Canadian universities can create new and accelerated tenure-track positions and lab relocation grants for such researchers.

An influx of world-class international students and academics would not only strengthen our research institutions but also bolster long-term innovation, entrepreneurship, and workforce competitiveness. Their integration into Canadian society contributes to demographic renewal, economic growth, and the global standing of our universities.

Source: America’s talented foreign students could find a home in Canada

Trump’s $5 million Gold Card offers the rich a fast lane to residency

Good assessment of this harebrained scheme, unlikely to attract the worthy. Lack of details on how it would work also cause for concern. Silver’s comment at the end sounds about right:

Lawyers’ phones are ringing with wealthy foreigners wanting to know more about how to score a “Gold Card” – a glorified green card that would allow them to live and work in the U.S. without going through the usual hassle or red tape. Apparently, the card’s $5 million price tag is not scaring off the jet-setters looking to make the U.S. home. Or at least one of their homes.

“$5 million to these people is jet fuel cost. It means nothing to them,” says Matthew Kolken, an immigration lawyer from Buffalo, NY, who has Canadian clients asking about the Gold Card. The clients declined to comment, but Kolken says he thinks the Gold Card is underpriced, if anything, considering the time and hassle it would save foreign multi-millionaires.

“It allows them to potentially buy their way into the United States,” says Kolken. “They would just be able to throw down their Amex Black Card.”

And plenty are interested.

“I have one from India, one from Pakistan, and two from Egypt. And a colleague who has a few [clients] from Russia,” says immigration attorney Mona Shah. Most are drawn to the offer of an express lane to permanent residency, plus more favorable tax implications; foreign nationals living in the U.S. on a Gold Card would only be taxed on their U.S. earnings.

Shah says the security — and the status — of being able to flash that “Gold Card” to get waved into the U. S. is also a big draw, as well as what Trump has described as “privileges – plus.” The president hasn’t elaborated on what that means, but Shah says clients are imagining VIP perks that range from easy loans to a special fast-track lane through Customs at U.S. airports.

“They seem to believe that this is going to be some kind of separating first class from economy class, and that this is some kind of ‘red carpet’ visa and they will be treated like a VIP everywhere,” says Shah.

But whether any such perks – or obligations – will come with the Gold Card remains far from clear, and the administration is not offering any more details some three months after President Donald Trump first started hyping the idea.

“It’s a great thing, the Gold Card. Remember the words ‘the Gold Card!'” he proclaimed to reporters in the Oval Office in February. “Wealthy people will be coming into our country by buying this card. They’ll be wealthy and they’ll be successful and they’ll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people. And we think it’s going to be extremely successful, never been done before anything like this.”

Trump added that he’d be happy to call it the “Trump Gold Card.” In fact officials say a government website is now using the name TrumpCard.gov, and Trump has since revealed a sample card with a picture of his face on the front.

Trump has said the proceeds of the Gold Card would go to help pay down the budget deficit, and possibly even chip away at the massive $36.2 trillion national debt.

“We’ll be able to sell maybe a million of these cards, maybe more than that,” Trump said. “A million cards would be worth $5 trillion. And if you sell 10 million of the cards, that’s a total of $50 trillion. We have $35 trillion in debt. That’d be nice.”

But most immigration experts and attorneys see that figure as wildly unrealistic. They expect sales to be in the low thousands.

Immigration lawyer Darren Silver says he’s received a flurry of calls about the Gold Card, but interest wanes as soon as he explains this program is not like the existing EB-5 visa program, which requires an investment of something closer to $1 million in a business that creates jobs or $800,000 for investments in a lower-income ‘targeted employment area.’

Silver says his clients are surprised when he tells them the Gold Card is not an investment that might offer any returns. It’s effectively just a donation.

“I had to explain to them, ‘you’re gifting the U.S. government $5 million. That’s all you’re doing.'” says Silver. “And once I explain that to them, they’re out.”

Source: Trump’s $5 million Gold Card offers the rich a fast lane to residency