Kelly: Fix, don’t gut, the temporary foreign worker program

The CFIB view. Like Century Initiative and others, having to adjust to the new public opinion environment that their previously successful lobbying and pressures helped create.

It will be interesting to see how far a future Conservative government would restrict access to low-wage temporary workers given their sympathies with SMEs (large companies not so much):

…Canada needs to have an adult conversation about the labour market and admit that there are many jobs and locations where there aren’t enough Canadians to fill the gaps. TFWs can help supplement the Canadian labour force and protect Canadian jobs. I’ve spoken to several restaurant owners who have said they can find Canadian young people willing to work as servers in the front of house, but can find no one willing to staff in the kitchen. Hiring a couple of experienced cooks from overseas helps them ensure there is work for their Canadian crew.  

As for taking jobs away from students, we need a big reality check. While students may be available for work during July and August, how does the business owner staff a day shift in September or October without people available for work year-round? 

There are legitimate criticisms of the program. Temporary workers are often hired by employers who really need permanent staff. But this is where there is large agreement between employers and migrant groups—and even the United Nations report. Creating greater pathways between the TFW program and permanent residency is a way to fix many of the programs’ defects. For years, the CFIB has lobbied government to shift elements of the TFW program to an Introduction to Canada program where TFWs can shift to permanent status after one-to-two years in Canada. This would allow the worker to learn the job, put down some roots in an area of Canada they may not have otherwise, and then have full labour-market mobility at the end. We see this as a way to balance the relationship between workers and employers. 

The vast majority of employers use the TFW program as a last resort in their hiring process and treat their workers—both Canadian and foreign—well. I’ve spoken to many employers who have built fantastic relationships with their foreign workers, and provided help to give them a great start in Canada. Shrinking the program is unlikely to help any Canadian looking for work, but will certainly add to the immense pressures already facing many of Canada’s small businesses.

Dan Kelly is the president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

Source: Kelly: Fix, don’t gut, the temporary foreign worker program

The quiet technocrat who steered Biden’s effort to tighten the border

Of interest:

The lead architect of President Joe Biden’s border strategy is not Vice President Kamala Harris, despite persistent Republican claims to the contrary. That role belongs to a bookish, little-known policy adviser named Blas Nuñez-Neto.

A data-driven technocrat, Nuñez-Neto has helped engineer Biden’s pivot toward tougher border enforcement and sweeping restrictions on asylum — moves that contributed to a nearly 80 percent drop in illegal crossings since December.

The transformation is shoring up one of Democrats’ biggest vulnerabilities ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election and potentially defusing a top-polling issue for Republican nominee Donald Trump. After three years of record crossings, the U.S.-Mexico border is quieter and more controlled today than at any point since late 2020, before Trump left office.

Nuñez-Neto pulled that off by steering the administration back to a border policy framework Democrats used to embrace more easily, according to current and former administration officials. The formula: Be generous and welcoming to immigrants seeking to come lawfully, but stingy and firm with those who don’t.

The White House declined to make Nuñez-Neto available for an interview. Biden officials said the administration’s border policy moves have been shaped by senior White House officials and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, whom Nuñez-Neto worked for before being promoted to the White House in June.

In a statement, White House spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández said Biden “believes it is a false choice to say we have to walk away from being an America that embraces immigration in order to secure our border.”

“We must enforce our laws at the border and deliver consequences to those who do not have a legal basis to remain in the United States, and we must expand lawful pathways,” Fernández Hernández said.

Southwest border apprehensions by month

Illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have declined in 2024, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.

Nuñez-Neto’s policy approach embodies the political calculus that while most Americans remain favorably disposed toward immigrants, few things erode the welcoming spirit faster than an out-of-control border. The growing U.S. economy needs workers, too, and immigrants help offset declining U.S. birth rates. But how they arrive matters.

Relying heavily on the president’s executive powers to grant entry using an authority known as parole, the Biden administration has been allowing nearly 75,000 migrants to enter each month through legal channels.

Republican critics denounce those pathways as a “shell game,” arguing the administration is facilitating mass migration through doors that should not be opened in the first place. But the expansion — paired with the most severe restrictions on asylum eligibility at the border from a Democratic administration in decades — has corralled the disorder.

Trump has largely ignored the change, displaying at his rallies a chart that shows record illegal crossings during Biden’s first three years and cuts out data showing the 2024 decline. He continues to label Harris, his Democratic opponent in the upcoming election, as the “border czar,” though she never held such a role. Biden tasked Harris with leading the administration’s plan to reduce Central American emigration by promoting investment and job creation, not to deal with immigration enforcement at the southern border.

That task — arguably one of the least-desirable in a Democratic administration — would become Nuñez-Neto’s.

A change in direction

The Argentine-born Nuñez-Neto was working on border security issues at the Rand Corporation in early 2021 when DHS policy adviser David Shahoulian — one of the few voices in the administration urging tougher measures at the border — recommended him for a job. He became chief operating officer for U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Trump’s rhetoric and harsh policies in the White House had galvanized immigration advocacy groups and many Democrats against enforcement and the very idea of deterrence as an element of border security. Biden loosened restrictions, fueling a perception that the border was more open even as officials — including Harris — told would-be migrants “do not come.”

Shahoulian soon left the administration in frustration. In late 2021, Nuñez-Neto took over his role shaping border policy at DHS.

More than a year later, as the administration ended the pandemic-era Title 42 border restrictions, Biden officials increasingly sought help from Mexico, Panama and other nations in the region to help contain migration and cooperate with U.S. policies. Nuñez-Neto took on a second role as DHS’s top international envoy. He became a major diplomatic asset: a bilingual U.S. official capable of explaining policy to Spanish-language media and speaking directly to Latin American officials.

Nuñez-Neto developed an especially close partnership with Roberto Velasco, the top official at Mexico’s Foreign Ministry for North American affairs, according to current and former senior officials from both nations. Mexican authorities this year have arrested record numbers of migrants traveling through the country toward the U.S. border, a crackdown that Biden officials credit with sharply curtailing illegal crossings.

Angela Kelley, a senior adviser at DHS until June 2022, said the Biden administration has worked to craft a careful balance of incentives and penalties — carrots and sticks. She had been a longtime advocate for asylum seekers, and worked to resist Trump’s policies. Nuñez-Neto was laser-focused on border crossings, checking enforcement data daily.

“He’s more of a sticks guy, given his background,” said Kelley, now chief policy adviser at the American Immigration Lawyers Association.

Nuñez-Neto was promoted to the White House as the president announced strict new emergency measures that have upended decades of asylum law, closing the border when crossings are high and essentially barring access to U.S. courts for migrants who enter the country illegally.

The restrictions were made possible by a breakthrough agreement Nuñez-Neto helped negotiate with Velasco and other senior Mexican officials. It allows the United States to return large numbers of non-Mexican migrants back across the border — a crucial tool for agencies that have struggled to send deportees to Venezuela and other nations whose relations with Washington are strained.

As the deterrence policies took shape, the number of migrants released into the United States with a pending asylum claim — the procedure decried as “catch and release” — plummeted. It was Nuñez-Neto, not someone from Harris’s team, who fielded questions about the measures from reporters and on Capitol Hill.

“Those of us who follow the inside baseball of immigration know he’s the person that has become the de facto border czar,” said one policy adviser close to the administration who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe informal conversations with top officials.

Nuñez-Neto has done so with a quiet, disciplined manner that is the stylistic opposite of swaggering Trump-era border officials. Some immigration advocates and activists have come to view him with scorn, as a border-cop-in-sheep’s-clothing who speaks of migrants sympathetically while orchestrating the kind of crackdown immigration hard-liners have only dreamed of.

The sharp drop in illegal crossings has allowed the Harris campaign to go on offense. She blames Trump for sinking a bipartisan Senate bill last winter that would have provided billions in new funding for more border agents, detention capacity, deportation flights and other enforcement tools. She has called for Congress to pass the bill, and says she would sign it into law if she’s elected.

But several of its toughest provisions — in particular the emergency asylum restrictions — are already in place…

Source: The quiet technocrat who steered Biden’s effort to tighten the border

Report highlights strained relationship between public servants and ministers

Of interest:

A recent report analyzing what makes a strong public service found that governments worldwide are grappling with building respect between ministers and bureaucrats. A former clerk of the Privy Council and an expert on parliamentary democracy and governance say the issue is prevalent in Canada.

The Global Government Forum report, “Making Government Work: Five pillars of a modern, effective civil service“, interviewed the top public servants from 12 countries, including Canada’s John Hannaford, to pinpoint five pillars of a successful civil service. One of those pillars involved a healthy relationship between ministers and senior officials — something Michael Wernick, a former clerk of the Privy Council, said was an “enduring” issue in Ottawa.

“The best you get is benign neglect and the worst you get is spirited hostility,” he said of how politicians treat public servants.

The report said its interviews with international leaders revealed “the growing challenge of aligning the immediate demands of political agendas with the long-term stewardship entrusted to civil servants” and highlighted “a lack of trust and understanding among ministers about the civil service’s fundamental role.”

While Hannaford declined a request for an interview, a report by deputy ministers on public service values and ethics prepared for the clerk highlighted the division between public servants and politicians. It said that participants from more than 90 conversations across the public service raised concerns about political interference in the public service.

“Some participants expressed concern with their ability to maintain political neutrality when dealing with political staff in a minister’s office,” the report said. “Striking a balance between political neutrality and providing expert advice, as well as the faithful implementation and delivery of programs and policies, can be challenging.”

It noted that there had been changes in the relationship between ministers and their offices given the “significant growth in political staff across the system.”

Wernick said the challenge of relationships between ministers and officials was not unique to the current government.

“There’s not really any sustained interest in the public service,” Wernick said, noting a pattern under both Liberal and Conservative governments. “I tabled four annual reports on the public service as clerk, and the number of times I was invited to a parliamentary committee to talk about it over those years was zero.”

Politicians, he said, are only interested in the public service when there’s a scandal.

“I’m sure there’s lots of cases every day and every week where ministers and their departments work effectively together … but the broad trend line seems to be that there’s an erosion of that relationship and the more populist sort of style of politics is about going for conflict.”

Wernick said the lack of respect between politicians and officials was most apparent during Parliamentary committee meetings.

“This incredibly disrespectful treatment of witnesses of parliamentary committees is just one symptom,” Wernick said, adding that officials were often “used as props” for social media posts and fundraising videos.

The report said one solution could be better training for ministers, political staff and officials to “bridge knowledge gaps” between their operations.

“If we were serious, there’d be an ongoing professional development, support for ministers and MPs and staffers,” Wernick said, adding that public servants could learn how to better support politicians and staffers.

Lori Turnbull, a professor in Dalhousie University’s faculty of management, whose research focuses has been on parliamentary democracy and governance, said the relationship between politicians and officials was always affected by the political climate at the time, noting that the current government is almost nine years old and has seen a lot of change in leadership.

“People know that this government is not doing well in the polls and, unless all the polls are getting it wrong, whenever this election is held, Pierre Poilievre is going to form a government,” Turnbull said, adding that in Canada there’s an expectation for the public service to be loyal to the government of the day until the moment it changes.

“Over time, there’s always going to be chafing in that relationship and there’s always going to be some trickiness when you get to that late stage of a government’s life where conflicts are going to come up, there’s going to be trust that is broken.”

Turnbull said the government’s reliance on contracting out advice and services was likely also causing distrust among public servants.

“Not that they ever have a monopoly on giving advice to the government, but it seems like this government has really gone out of its way to pull in advice and support from non-public-service entities,” Turnbull said. “Those sorts of things send a message to the public service that, ‘We don’t want you as you are.’”

Turnbull said ministers, political staff and senior public servants needed to be better educated when they took on a role on what it meant to have a healthy tension between the two sides based on trust.

“Our system needs trust or else it won’t work, but now we’re seeing that trust break down,” Turnbull said.

Source: Report highlights strained relationship between public servants and ministers

Yakabuski | Réparer ses dégâts

Strongly worded and valid:

S’il y a une critique qui revient sans cesse à propos du gouvernement du premier ministre Justin Trudeau, c’est qu’il met trop l’accent sur les annonces et pas assez sur la mise en oeuvre des programmes qui en découlent. C’est un gouvernement qui néglige de façon quasi systématique les conséquences inattendues de ses initiatives, se concentrant plutôt sur le message qu’il souhaite envoyer à certaines clientèles politiques visées. Il ne semble pas apprendre de ses erreurs, ou, quand il le fait, il est trop tard pour réparer les dégâts déjà causés.

La preuve de cela demeure sa gestion du système canadien d’immigration. Faisant jadis l’envie du monde entier, ce système était fondé sur des critères de sélection précis permettant au Canada de classer des demandeurs pour que seuls les plus qualifiés parmi eux obtiennent la résidence permanente, peu importe leur pays d’origine. Les libéraux avaient déjà commencé à déroger à ce principe avant la pandémie en créant des exceptions pour certaines catégories d’immigrants. À partir de 2021, toutefois, le gouvernement Trudeau a complètement chamboulé le système en rehaussant les seuils d’immigration permanente et temporaire afin de doper la croissance économique et de combler la pénurie de travailleurs dans certains secteurs de l’économie.

Non seulement le Canada allait accepter davantage de résidents permanents — en fixant une cible de 500 000 en 2025 —, mais ces derniers allaient de plus en plus provenir de bassins de centaines de milliers de résidents temporaires déjà basés au pays grâce à l’expansion massive des programmes fédéraux des travailleurs étrangers temporaires et d’éducation internationale. Les critères de sélection établis avaient été contournés pour favoriser ceux qui avaient déjà une expérience de travail au Canada, même s’il s’agissait d’un emploi à bas salaire ne requérant ni de compétences précises ni de diplôme de niveau supérieur. Mais en procédant ainsi, Ottawa pouvait se vanter d’accélérer l’octroi des permis de résidence permanente et de répondre aux demandes de main-d’oeuvre des employeurs.

Or, on sait ce qui s’est passé depuis. La crise du logement n’est que la pointe de l’iceberg, la conséquence la plus visible de cet abandon par les libéraux des principes qui avaient guidé tous les gouvernements fédéraux précédents en matière d’immigration depuis plus de cinq décennies. Le taux de chômage des jeunes de 15 à 24 ans s’est établi à 14,2 % en juillet, selon Statistique Canada, une hausse de 3,6 points de pourcentage depuis un an et le niveau le plus élevé depuis 2012. Chez les jeunes hommes, le taux de sans-emploi a grimpé à 16 %. La situation est encore pire chez les jeunes immigrants qui sont au Canada depuis moins de cinq ans, dont le taux de chômage s’est élevé à 22,8 % en juillet, en hausse de 8,6 points de pourcentage depuis le même mois en 2023. L’économie canadienne a beau continuer de croître, la création d’emplois demeure bien en deçà de l’augmentation de la population en raison de l’immigration permanente et temporaire. Qu’arriverait-il si jamais une récession ou un ralentissement économique prononcé frappait le pays ? Une « tempête parfaite ».

Cette semaine, le gouvernement Trudeau a enfin annoncé son intention de resserrer les critères d’admissibilité du Programme des travailleurs étrangers temporaires, pas dans un lointain avenir comme il l’avait plusieurs fois suggéré, mais à partir du mois prochain. Entre autres, la durée des permis sera réduite à un an plutôt que deux, et la proportion maximale de travailleurs temporaires au sein d’une même entreprise sera de nouveau à 10 % plutôt qu’à 20 %. Mais avec près de 2,8 millions de résidents non permanents au pays, plus du double du nombre de 2021, des experts s’attendent avec raison à ce que des milliers d’entre eux choisissent de vivre dans la clandestinité plutôt que de quitter le Canada lors de l’expiration de leur permis de séjour. Après tout, la plupart d’entre eux sont venus au Canada sur une base temporaire en espérant obtenir la résidence permanente par la suite, grâce aux changements de critères d’admissibilité introduits par les libéraux en 2021. Or, le ministre Marc Miller a laissé entendre cette semaine qu’Ottawa examine aussi maintenant la possibilité de réduire les seuils d’immigration permanente.

Le ministère de l’Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada et l’Agence des services frontaliers du Canada (ASFC) sont déjà aux prises avec un fardeau de travail qui dépasse l’entendement. Ils n’ont ni l’effectif ni les ressources pour s’assurer que tous ces travailleurs étrangers temporaires et tous ces étudiants internationaux quitteront le pays dès l’expiration de leur permis. Et on peine à croire que les libéraux, aussi dépensiers soient-ils, vont rehausser le budget de l’ASFC pour déporter tous les nouveaux sans-papiers qui ne quitteront pas volontairement le Canada. Le gouvernement est déjà accusé d’avoir fermé les yeux sur l’exploitation des travailleurs étrangers temporaires par certains employeurs sans scrupule. Procéder à la déportation de milliers d’ex-travailleurs étrangers temporaires forcés de vivre dans la clandestinité lui vaudrait d’être affublé de l’étiquette « trumpiste ».

Le recul du gouvernement Trudeau cette semaine ne sera pas suffisant pour remettre le système d’immigration canadien sur les rails avant plusieurs années et fera gonfler les rangs des sans-papiers au pays, avec toutes les répercussions sociales et économiques que cela implique. Il est difficile d’imaginer que ce scénario du pire surviendra dans un pays qui faisait autrefois l’envie du monde en matière d’immigration.

Source: Chronique | Réparer ses dégâts

Computer translation

If there is a criticism that comes up constantly about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, it is that it puts too much emphasis on the announcements and not enough on the implementation of the resulting programs. It is a government that almost systematically neglects the unexpected consequences of its initiatives, focusing instead on the message it wishes to send to certain targeted political clienteles. He doesn’t seem to learn from his mistakes, or, when he does, it’s too late to repair the damage already caused.

Proof of this remains its management of Canada’s immigration system. This system was once envied by the whole world, was based on specific selection criteria allowing Canada to classify applicants so that only the most qualified among them obtain permanent residence, regardless of their country of origin. Liberals had already begun to derogate from this principle before the pandemic by creating exceptions for certain categories of immigrants. Starting in 2021, however, the Trudeau government completely turned the system upside down by raising the thresholds for permanent and temporary immigration to boost economic growth and fill the shortage of workers in certain sectors of the economy.

Not only would Canada accept more permanent residents — with a target of 500,000 in 2025 — but Canada would increasingly come from pools of hundreds of thousands of temporary residents already based in the country through the massive expansion of the federal temporary foreign worker and international education programs. The established selection criteria had been circumvented to favour those who already had work experience in Canada, even though it was a low-wage job requiring neither specific skills nor a higher-level diploma. But by doing so, Ottawa could boast of accelerating the granting of permanent residence permits and responding to employers’ demands for labour.

However, we know what has happened since then. The housing crisis is just the tip of the iceberg, the most visible consequence of this abandonment by the Liberals of the principles that had guided all previous federal governments on immigration for more than five decades. The unemployment rate of 15-24-year-olds stood at 14.2% in July, according to Statistics Canada, an increase of 3.6 percentage points in a year and the highest level since 2012. Among young men, the unemployment rate rose to 16%. The situation is even worse among young immigrants who have been in Canada for less than five years, whose unemployment rate was 22.8% in July, up 8.6 percentage points since the same month in 2023. The Canadian economy may continue to grow, but job creation remains well below population growth due to permanent and temporary immigration. What would happen if a recession or a pronounced economic slowdown ever hit the country? A “perfect storm”.

This week, the Trudeau government finally announced its intention to tighten the eligibility criteria for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, not in the distant future as it had repeatedly suggested, but starting next month. Among other things, the duration of permits will be reduced to one year instead of two, and the maximum proportion of temporary workers within the same company will again be 10% instead of 20%. But with nearly 2.8 million non-permanent residents in the country, more than double the number in 2021, experts rightly expect thousands of them to choose to live in hiding rather than leave Canada when their residence permits expire. After all, most of them came to Canada on a temporary basis in the hope of obtaining permanent residence afterwards, thanks to the changes in eligibility criteria introduced by the Liberals in 2021. However, Minister Marc Miller suggested this week that Ottawa is also now considering the possibility of reducing permanent immigration thresholds.

The Department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) are already struggling with a workload beyond comprehension. They do not have the staff or the resources to ensure that all these temporary foreign workers and all these international students leave the country when their permit expires. And it is hard to believe that the Liberals, no matter how spendthrift they are, will increase the CBSA budget to deport all the new undocumented who will not voluntarily leave Canada. The government is already accused of turning a blind eye to the exploitation of temporary foreign workers by some unscrupulous employers. Deporting thousands of former temporary foreign workers forced to live in hiding would ear him the “Trumpist” label.

The Trudeau government’s retreat this week will not be enough to get Canada’s immigration system back on track for several years and will swell the ranks of undocumented people in the country, with all the social and economic repercussions that this entails. It is difficult to imagine that this worst-case scenario will occur in a country that was once the world’s desire for immigration.

Gee: High-ranking Toronto cop who cheated in the name of equity received too light a penalty 

Undermines trust and efforts to improve representation:

…Even if she did not act for personal gain, the adjudicator said, her conduct fell “far below the standard expected of a police officer.” Ms. Clarke effectively admitted as much when she pleaded guilty last fall to a series of violations of the Police Services Act, among them discreditable conduct and breach of confidence.

She is lucky she was not dismissed from the force altogether. That she will be allowed to continue in the senior role of inspector is difficult to understand.

Police, quite obviously, exist to enforce the rules. When they themselves break those rules, however pure their motives, it undermines public confidence that the law will be applied fairly and evenly. That takes us into dangerous waters. If people start doubting the police, they are less likely to report crime and more likely to take justice into their own hands.

Those who campaign for racial justice know this better than anyone. It is strange to see some of them making a hero of Ms. Clarke.

Source: High-ranking Toronto cop who cheated in the name of equity received too light a penalty

TFWP: Setting the baseline to evaluate government changes

Just as the impact of the caps on international students is becoming apparent through monthly and quarterly numbers for post-secondary study permits, one can expect the government’s restrictions on low-wage temporary workers to start have an impact in the October-December quarter.

To better monitor and assess the impact, I prepared some charts on Temporary Foreign Workers by NOC Code. For those unfamiliar with the codes A 0 or 1: university degree, B 2 or 3: community college, apprenticeship, more than 2 years on the job, occupations with supervisory responsibilities or significant health and safety responsibilities, C 4 or 5: some secondary education, up to two years on-the-job training or equivalent, D 6 or 7: on-the-job training.

The following slides highlight the shift over the past five years. This provides a good overview and the context for articles like The sudden rise of temporary foreign workers in entry-level office jobs.

Starting with two views by NOC level, the numbers and the percentage shares which show the dramatic increase, both absolute and in percentage, of the low wage and low skilled temporary workers. Interestingly, there has been a squeezing of level C workers:

The next two slides provide the breakdown by NOC sector where sales & service and natural resources & agriculture have increased the most:

And lastly, looking at June year-over-year change and two year change, as well as from pre-pandemic 2018, showing again the greatest increase in level D occupations and, in terms of sectors, Business & Administration and Health, the latter from a low base:

Note to media: avoid year-to-date analysis in drawing conclusions as happened with Postmedia and other publications and focus on quarterly year-over-year changes.

Poilievre says he would cut population growth after Liberals signal immigration changes coming

Ironically, by reversing some of their ill-advised policies that resulted in overly rapid increases in the number of temporary workers and students and, arguably, Permanent Residents levels, the Liberals have provided a pathway for a more robust discussion of immigration. Given that this is based upon the impact on housing, healthcare and infrastructure, not xenophobia and fear of the other, immigration is not really much of a “third rail,” Telling that Abacus Data didn’t include immigration in their polling on third rail issues.

In case you missed it, my earlier analysis of what one might expect under a Poilievre government,What changes a Conservative government might make to Canada’s immigration policies. In retrospect, my assessment may have been too cautious as these policy reversals by the government make further restrictions more politically acceptible:

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said Thursday he would rein in Canada’s population growth if elected, claiming the Liberal government has “destroyed our immigration system” and insisting on cuts to the number of people arriving in order to preserve a program that was once widely supported.

Speaking to reporters on Parliament Hill, Poilievre said immigration was “not even a controversial issue” before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was elected, but a surge in international students and low-wage temporary foreign workers has ruined the “multigenerational consensus” that bringing more people to live here is a good thing.

“The radical, out-of-control NDP-Liberal government has destroyed our system,” Poilievre said. “We have to have a smaller population growth.”

Poilievre said a future Conservative government would tie the country’s population growth rate to a level that’s below the number of new homes built, and would also consider such factors as access to health-care and jobs.

That’s an imprecise metric that makes it difficult to pinpoint just how many permanent residents or non-permanent residents such as temporary foreign workers, international students and refugees would be admitted on Poilievre’s watch.

Poilievre has previously said immigration levels should be tied to housing starts. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported roughly 255,000 housing starts in July.

The federal government has already said it will admit about 485,000 permanent residents — immigrants who intend to settle here on a permanent basis — to Canada this year, with the target rising to 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.

In an apparent reference to research from Mike Moffatt, the senior director of policy at the Smart Prosperity Institute who has studied immigration and housing, Poilievre said Canada “cannot grow the population at three times the rate of the housing stock, as Trudeau has been doing.”

The government hasn’t offered a hard target for the non-permanent resident streams but has already announced an initiative to rein in the number of international students and, at the Liberal cabinet retreat in Halifax earlier this week, announced a crackdown on low-wage temporary foreign workers (TFWs).

The number of non-permanent residents has been growing at a breakneck pace in the post-COVID era after the federal government relaxed regulations around TFWs and allowed Canada’s colleges and universities to dramatically expand the international student body.

Non-permanent resident population more than doubles in 3 years

In the last three years, the number of non-permanent residents — a category that includes TFWs, international students and asylum seekers — has more than doubled from about 1.3 million in 2021 to nearly 2.8 million in the second quarter of this year, according to data compiled by Statistics Canada.

Of that figure, 1.3 million people are in Canada on work permits, a category that includes TFWs.

The low-wage TFW sector, which has admitted workers in food services but also in sectors such as construction and hospitals, has grown from 15,817 such workers in 2016 to 83,654 in 2023, according to federal data.

The forthcoming changes to the low-wage stream will reduce the number of TFWs by about 65,000, the government has said, which brings it back to pre-pandemic levels.

Poilievre said the government has “destroyed” the TFW program by dropping a number of regulations that were designed to limit foreign workers to certain industries in areas with low unemployment.

The agricultural sector has long relied on TFWs to grow and harvest the food the country eats and exports, and Poilievre said he would preserve the program for that purpose.

But he also said he wants to “block temporary foreign workers where they are taking jobs from Canadians.”

He said he would only admit international students if they have a place to live and the means to pay for it, and possess “a real admission letter to a real educational institution.”

Trudeau said Monday the government is considering reducing the number of permanent residents Canada accepts each year — a potentially major policy change after years of increasing immigration levels on the Liberal government’s watch.

Unemployment high among newcomers

Talk of an immigration cutback comes as unemployment rates among immigrants and young people have crept up to concerning levels in recent months, according to federal data.

According to the Bank of Canada’s recent monetary report, the “newcomer” or immigrant unemployment rate now stands at 11.6 per cent — well above the overall unemployment rate of 6.4 per cent that was recorded in June.

Asked by CBC News if the government is considering broader changes to the immigration system beyond cuts to TFWs at a time of higher unemployment, Trudeau said the government is going to review its immigration levels this fall.

Asked if a reduction in the number of permanent residents is on the table, Trudeau suggested it’s an issue he takes “extremely seriously” and said that topic would be discussed among cabinet ministers.

“We’re making sure that the entire package makes as much sense as possible for the needs of Canadians and for the needs of our economy,” Trudeau said.

“We’ll be looking at unemployment rates and opportunities to make further adjustments over the course of this fall as we come forward with comprehensive level plans that will respond to the reality that Canada’s facing now and in years and decades to come,” he said.

He said immigration needs to be “done right,” and that changes may be forthcoming so that “Canada remains a place that is positive in its support for immigration but also responsible in the way we integrate and make sure there’s pathways to success for everyone who comes to Canada.”

Immigration Minister Marc Miller also said “all options are on the table” when it comes to addressing immigration levels.

He acknowledged that some people have expressed concern to him about the current pace of population growth, which is among the highest in the developed world.

Source: Poilievre says he would cut population growth after Liberals signal immigration changes coming

Brest and Levine: D.E.I. Is Not Working on College Campuses. We Need a New Approach.

Good thoughtful discussion:

With colleges and universities beginning a new academic year, we can expect more contentious debate over programs that promote diversity, equity and inclusion. Progressives are doubling down on programs that teach students that they are either oppressed peoples or oppressors, while red states are closing campus D.E.I. programs altogether.

For all of the complaints, some of these programs most likely serve the important goal of ensuring that all students are valued and engaged participants in their academic communities. But we fear that many other programs are too ideological, exacerbate the very problems they intend to solve and are incompatible with higher education’s longstanding mission of cultivating critical thinking. We propose an alternative: a pluralist-based approach to D.E.I. that would provide students with the self-confidence, mind-sets and skills to engage with challenging social and political issues.

Like many other universities, our university, Stanford, experienced a rise in antisemitic incidents after the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and Israel’s response. We were appointed to the university’s Subcommittee on Antisemitism and Anti-Israeli Bias, which was charged with assessing the nature and scope of the problem and making recommendations. The upshot of hearing from over 300 people in 50 listening sessions is that many Jews and Israelis have experienced bias and feel insecure on our campus.

A parallel committee formed to address anti-Muslim, Arab and Palestinian bias reached similar conclusions for those groups.

These findings are discouraging, given that institutions of higher learning have spent several decades and vast sums of money establishing institutional infrastructures to promote diversity, equity and inclusion. Discouraging, but not surprising — because our inquiries revealed how exclusionary and counterproductive some of these programs can be.

Our committee was pressed by many of those we interviewed to recommend adding Jews and Israelis to the identities currently recognized by Stanford’s D.E.I. programs so their harms would be treated with the same concern as those of people of color and L.G.B.T.Q.+ people, who are regarded as historically oppressed. This move would be required of many California colleges and universities under a measure moving through the California Legislature. But subsuming new groups into the traditional D.E.I. regime would only reinforce a flawed system.

D.E.I. training originated in the corporate world of the 1960s and migrated to universities in subsequent decades, initially to rectify the underrepresentation of minority groups and then to mitigate the tensions associated with more diverse populations. In recent years, the goals of diversity and inclusion have become the bête noire of the political right, in part to avoid reckoning with our nation’s history of slavery and discrimination in ways that might cause, as some state laws have put it, “discomfort, guilt or anguish.” We do not share this view. We believe that fostering a sense of belonging among students of diverse backgrounds is a precondition for educational success. That said, many D.E.I. training programs actually subvert their institutions’ educational missions.

Here’s why. A major purpose of higher education is to teach students the skill of critical inquiry, which the philosopher and educator John Dewey described as “the active, persistent, and careful consideration of any belief or supposed form of knowledge in the light of the grounds that support it.” Conscientious faculty members teaching about race and gender require their students to critically consider differing views of the status and history of people of color, women and L.G.B.T.Q.+ people. Teaching critical thinking about any topic is challenging and humbling work.

While issues of diversity, equity and inclusion are sometimes addressed in rigorous classroom courses, university-based D.E.I. programs tend to come in two basic forms: online or off-the-shelf trainings that are more suitable for airline safety briefings than exploring the complexities of interracial relations, and ideological workshops that inculcate theories of social justice as if there were no plausible alternatives. The Intergroup Dialogue, developed at the University of Michigan and used on many campuses around the country, “assist[s] participants in exploring issues of power, privilege, conflict and oppression.” The program’s success is measured by students’ acknowledgment of pervasive discrimination and their attribution of inequalities to structural causes, such as deeply rooted government policies.

D.E.I. programs often assign participants to identity categories based on rigid distinctions. In a D.E.I. training program at Stanford a few years ago, Jewish staff members were assigned to a “whiteness accountability” group, and some later complained that they were shot down when they tried to raise concerns about antisemitism. The former D.E.I. director at a Bay Area community college described D.E.I. as based on the premises “that the world is divided into two groups of people: the oppressors and the oppressed.” She was also told by colleagues and campus leaders that “Jews are ‘white oppressors,’” and her task was to “decenter whiteness.”

Rather than correcting stereotypes, diversity training too often reinforces them and breeds resentment, impeding students’ social development. An excessive focus on identity can be just as harmfulas the pretense that identity doesn’t matter. Overall, these programs may undermine the very groups they seek to aid by instilling a victim mind-set and by pitting students against one another.

Research shows that all students feel excluded from academic communities at one point or another, no matter their backgrounds. The Stanford psychologists Geoffrey Cohen and Greg Walton have found that “belonging uncertainty”— the “state of mind in which one suffers from doubts about whether one is fully accepted in a particular environment or ever could be” — can afflict all of us. From our perspective, if one student is excluded, all students’ learning is diminished. Belonging is a foundation for the shared pursuit of knowledge and the preparation of students as citizens and leaders of a diverse society.

American campuses need an alternative to ideological D.E.I. programs. They need programs that foster a sense of belonging and engagement for students of diverse backgrounds, religious beliefs and political views without subverting their schools’ educational missions. Such programs should be based on a pluralistic vision of the university community combined with its commitments to academic freedom and critical inquiry.

An increasing number of educators are coming to this conclusion. Musa al-Gharbi, a sociologist at Stony Brook University, presents a holistic approach to diversity. Conflicting viewpoints must be “brought into conversation with one another in a constructive way — to form a picture that is more complete and reliable than we would have were we to look at only the dominant perspective or only at subaltern perspectives,” he has written. Danielle Allen, a professor of political philosophy, ethics, and public policy at Harvard, champions “confident pluralism,” in which we “honor our own values while making decisions together.” And the philosopher Susan Neiman invokes a tradition of universalism that allows for — indeed requires — empathy with others rather than a competition among sufferings. “If you don’t base solidarity on deep principles that you share, it’s not real solidarity,” she has said. The group Interfaith America, which promotes interfaith cooperation, has developed a comprehensive Bridging the Gap curriculum that offers a practical guide for discourse across differences.

At the core of pluralistic approaches are facilitated conversations among participants with diverse identities, religious beliefs and political ideologies, but without a predetermined list of favored identities or a preconceived framework of power, privilege and oppression. Students are taught the complementary skills of telling stories about their own identities, values and experiences and listening with curiosity and interest to the stories of others, acknowledging differences and looking for commonalities.

Success would be an academic community of equally respected learners who possess critical thinking skills and are actively engaged in navigating challenging questions throughout the curriculum — an approach that teaches students how to think rather than what to think.

Pluralism does not ignore identity or pervasive structural inequalities. Rather, it provides a framework in which identity is construed broadly and understood as a starting point for dialogue, rather than the basis for separation and fragmentation. It commits questions about the causes and persistence of inequalities to the classroom, where they can be examined through the critical, evidence-based methods at the root of a university education. Respecting the diverse perspectives of one’s fellows and adhering to norms such as active listening, humility and generosity enable classroom conversations about contentious social and political issues.

Nonprofit and religious leaders are translating these ideas into an emerging movement. A collaborative of philanthropic funders called New Pluralists is organizing and supporting groups that are putting pluralism into practice. Such efforts face headwinds both from conservatives who are suspicious of all efforts to foster inclusion and from groups that believe they benefit from the current system. And it will require heavy lifting by educators to work together with their students to create the preconditions for authentic critical engagement.

The current system is not good for Jews at Stanford and other universities. It’s not good for Muslims, either. And it’s certainly not good for society as a whole.

Paul Brest is former dean and professor emeritus at Stanford Law School. Emily J. Levine is associate professor of education and history at Stanford.

Source: D.E.I. Is Not Working on College Campuses. We Need a New Approach.

Canada’s immigration system is failing recent immigrants themselves

Of note:

The unemployment rate for immigrants who arrived within the past five years rose to nearly 13 per cent in July, which was seven percentage points higher than the unemployment rate for workers born here. Aside from the early months of COVID-19, that’s the largest unemployment gap for recent immigrants in more than a decade, Bank of Montreal senior economic Robert Kavcic wrote in a research note.

“The reality now is that the current rate of inflow is not getting readily absorbed, which is doing no favour to the domestic job market (see youth unemployment), and no favour to those coming to Canada,” he wrote.

It’s a stark reversal from what had been a shining feature of the Canadian immigration experience. Starting in the early 2010s the unemployment rate for newcomers who arrived within the previous five years began to fall faster than the unemployment rate for Canadian-born workers, which itself was also on the decline. In fact, by 2018 immigrants who’d arrived within the previous five years were more likely to be employed than native-born Canadians.

A similar though less pronounced improvement unfolded for immigrants who’d landed five to 10 years earlier, which has since reversed. Meanwhile, by the time immigrants are here for more than a decade, their unemployment rate is largely indistinguishable from that of native-born workers.

Source: Canada’s immigration system is failing recent immigrants themselves

Majority of Canadians believe Liberals’ immigration targets are set too high: poll

Worth reading (link to ppt: https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Leger-X-National-Post_Politics-August-26th-2024-002.pdf). Helps understand the ongoing backtracking of the government on many of its earlier and often misguided policies:

Most Canadians believe the Trudeau government’s immigration plan is admitting too many people, but they’re less clear on the temporary foreign worker program, according to new polling.

Leger conducted the new survey, exclusively for the National Post, that showed 65 per cent of Canadians believe the Liberals’ current immigration targets are too high. The government has a target to bring in 500,000 newcomers in both 2025 and 2026.

The poll found 20 per cent of Canadians believe the target is the right number, while three per cent believe it is not enough.

Andrew Enns, an executive vice-president with Leger, said attitudes toward immigration have been hardening over the past few years.

“What’s starting to happen now is that we’re starting to see Canadians, rightly or wrongly, are connecting a few issues to immigration,” he said.

Enns’ polling shows that 78 per cent of respondents believe high immigration levels are contributing to the housing shortage, while 76 per cent said they are having an impact on health care.

The polling also reveals that 72 per cent believe Canada’s immigration policy is too generous and only 26 per cent of Canadians believe the government does a good job vetting new immigrants.

While the governing Liberals have so far left permanent resident immigration untouched, they have indicated there will be changes to the number of temporary residents such as international students and temporary foreign workers who can come to Canada.

The Liberals moved this week to cut the number of temporary foreign workers and said for the first time there will be overall caps on the number of temporary residents let into Canada in a plan promised later this year.

Enns polled on the temporary foreign worker program and found most people (57 per cent) were not familiar with it. Only 43 per cent said they were familiar with it.

Despite the gap in knowledge, 48 per cent of respondents said they thought the program was positive, while 38 per cent said it was negative.

There was considerable support for the program in Quebec, with 61 per cent of respondents agreeing it was positive.

“People just aren’t sure about the program or how it works, so you see that sort of split when it comes to the impression of the program itself,” said Enns.

The program grew considerably over the past two years when the Liberals eased some of the restrictions. The government rolled back the changes this week after the spike in numbers.

Enns said there are parts of the country where business groups have lobbied hard for the program and put forward the message that Canadians don’t want many of these jobs. Enns said that message might have had some impact, but Canadians may have come to their own conclusions about low-wage work.

“I do wonder whether or not there’s also a reflection in the population that there’s some jobs that are just hard to fill.”

Leger’s poll was an online sample of 1,602 Canadians conducted between Aug. 23 and 25.

The sample is weighted to reflect Canada’s demographic makeup, but a similar random sample would produce a margin of error of 2.45 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Source: Majority of Canadians believe Liberals’ immigration targets are set too high: poll