Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

2024/12/03 Leave a comment

Setting up expectations, dealing with the reality. We shall see:

Republican lawmakers are plotting a major revamp of immigration law and border restrictions, in a bid to deliver on one of President-elect Donald Trump’s signature issues. So far, their odds of going as big as conservatives want are looking bleak.

Despite controlling the House and Senate, the GOP faces major political hurdles down every possible path for enacting the illegal immigration crackdown that was one of their big election promises.

Immigration hardliners and those Republicans who have raised concerns about far-reaching restrictions on asylum or deportations are at odds over just how far to go on border security issues. The GOP will likely have a slim House majority — potentially with no room for error — to pull off immigration changes and will struggle to win over Senate Democrats who could filibuster legislation from the minority. Republicans have a potential procedural tool for sidestepping the filibuster — a process known as budget reconciliation — but it appears that rules governing the maneuver may prevent them from including a big revamp of immigration policy.

“We’re going to need a little time to figure out what shakes out,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican who has clashed with more hard-line conservatives over the issue. “What does a conference in the House want? What does the conference in the Senate want? What does President Trump want? And then that’s when we have a short window to be able to jam that all through.”

The looming struggle over immigration underscores the huge challenges Republicans face in delivering on their policy promises next year with a narrow margin in the House, the chaotic influence of Trump and internal divides even on issues that otherwise appear to unite the party….

Source: Why the House GOP’s big immigration crackdown may be doomed

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Nicaraguans stripped of citizenship live in limbo, scattered across the world

2024/12/03 Leave a comment

Of note:

Sergio Mena’s life dissolved in hours.

After years resisting President Daniel Ortega, the rural activist fled Nicaragua in 2018, joining thousands of protesters fleeing a yearslong crackdown on dissent.

Mena returned from exile in neighboring Costa Rica in 2021 to continue protesting, only to be thrown in a prison where he said jailers hung prisoners by their feet and shocked them with electricity.

“We were tortured all the time, physically and psychologically, from the moment we arrived until the very last day,” said Mena, 40.

Now in exile in Guatemala, Mena may be out of prison but he’s far from free. Upon their release, he and hundreds of religious leaders, students, activists, dissidents and journalists were rendered “stateless” – stripped of their citizenship, homes and government pensions.

The United Nations says that they’re among 4.4 million stateless people worldwide who struggle to find jobs, education and healthcare or even open bank accounts or marry without valid ID documents.

“Statelessness is torture,” said Karina Ambartsoumian-Clough executive director of United Stateless, a U.S.-based organization advocating for the stateless. “You just legally cease to exist, even if you’re here physically as a human.”

Free but unfree

In September, Ortega’s government loaded Mena and 134 other prisoners onto the flight that took them to Guatemala. They joined 317 others whom the government has deemed adversaries who no longer deserve legal Nicaraguan identities.

The Associated Press spoke to more than 24 Nicaraguan exiles who have been stripped of their citizenship and are trying to chart paths forward. They’re scattered across the United States, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Mexico and Spain in limbo as they struggle to recover from physical and psychological trauma, extending the torture many suffered in Nicaragua.

The Ortega government did not respond to a request for comment by the AP.

The agony of statelessness

The majority of stateless people worldwide are born to refugees and migrants in countries that don’t offer birthright citizenship, the right to become a citizen if you’re born within a country’s territory.

Many Nicaraguans struggle to scrape together enough money to feed themselves. Others hide away in fear that the Nicaraguan government will someday come for them. Many more reel from watching their lives go up in smoke. For those stranded in the U.S. or seeking respite there, President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to crack down on immigration and asylum have added more uncertainty.

Intensifying repression

Ortega’s government began stripping people of their citizenship early last year.

It was in that crackdown that Mena, the member of a rural activist movement, said he was imprisoned. The government claimed that he had participated in drug trafficking and organized crime, which he denies.

In February 2023, the government broke international law when it began sending prisoners to the U.S and most recently to Guatemala. Others in exile were stripped of their citizenship without ever having been jailed.

Torment beyond borders

The Nicaraguan government has not explained why it released Mena and other people from prison, although experts have speculated about the desire to duck international criticism and the costs involved while continuing to maintain a grip on enemies.

Mena lives in a hotel in Guatemala City, where he flips through photos of a crumbling jail, scraps of food and his bruised, beaten body – indelible memories of more than two years in prison. His life is painted by constant fear.

“The tentacles of (the Nicaraguan government) still reach here,” he said with tears in his eyes.

The Biden administration has offered the Nicaraguans temporary protections and Mena hopes the U.S. government will grant him asylum, but such protections are likely to vanish or be severely restricted under Trump. The Spanish government has offered to provide nationality to some of the stateless exiles, but few have the resources needed to build a new life in Spain, or are confused about the process.

Source: Nicaraguans stripped of citizenship live in limbo, scattered across the world

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Watt | The border wake-up call is ringing — bring on the drones, helicopters and patrols

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Just as there is a risk in understating the expected income, there is a similar risk in overstating, as some premiers and commentators have done. But the times provide an opportunity to fix some of the things that need fixing from a Canadian perspective, recognizing that some is substantive and some performative:

…Because for all the supposed people or illicit goods that might flow between our borders, America can handle our “problem,” our traffic — we, on the other hand, cannot even begin to dream of sufficiently handling a mass influx of migrants across our border and into our cities.

We don’t have the resources, space, or public appetite. Moreover, right now, we don’t have clear and focused public discourse on this issue.

We don’t need a sober “reality check” when it comes to this debate. What should be — but evidently is not — abundantly clear to our political class is that Donald Trump will say anything — fact or fiction — to improve his bargaining position and get his way. What we need is a strong plan to reinforce our border. Because that is the only way to prepare and do what we need to do — kill two birds with one stone.

First, to show Trump we’re making progress on a critical political priority for his administration: border security. Second, to prepare for the potential influx of migrants that will look to head to Canada the minute he takes office.

That plan should consist of more drones, helicopters and patrols as the RCMP and our border agency has asked for — but it also must include stricter punishments for the phoney, unauthorized immigration consultants and human traffickers that prey on people’s lives and livelihoods.

Borders are lines in the sand. Symbolic by nature. That’s precisely why they’re such fertile ground for politicians to grandstand, to deceive, to promise then, let down.

It’s also why reinforcing them with action, not words, is what the Canadian public must demand.

Source: Opinion | The border wake-up call is ringing — bring on the drones, helicopters and patrols

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Ibbitson: Sir John A. Macdonald & The Apocalyptic Year 1885 places the former PM’s many imperfections within the context of the times

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Of note. The importance of historical context:

…First Nations in the West were starving in the 1870s and 80s. The bison on which they depended had been hunted almost to extinction. Many native people fled into Canada to escape a hostile American government that provided no aid.

Macdonald, Dutil demonstrates, did everything in his power to prevent starvation, making himself minister of Indian affairs to co-ordinate relief efforts. He provided supplies and instructors to encourage Indigenous farming and offered rations to thousands in need.

“The whole theory of supplying the Indians is that we must prevent them from starving,” Macdonald declared. Spending on relief efforts became one of the largest items in the federal budget – twice what was spent on agriculture, immigration, penitentiaries or the post office.

“There is no evidence that food was withheld to kill Indigenous people, as some would charge 150 years later,” Dutil concludes. The very opposite is true: “Even with the financial crash in the fall of 1883 and the economy in deep depression, Macdonald spent aggressively on food.” His government was harshly criticized by the Liberal opposition for what that party considered lavish overspending on First Nations relief.

The Macdonald government initiated the infamous residential-school system. There is no question that the prime minister sought to assimilate First Nations within the settler culture. There is also no question that this attitude enjoyed near-unanimous support among non-Indigenous Canadians. Macdonald and his peers believed assimilation offered the most hopeful future for the first peoples.

“Canada joined the rest of the American hemisphere as it opened a shameful chapter in its history, despite its good intentions,” Dutil writes….

Source: Sir John A. Macdonald & The Apocalyptic Year 1885 places the former PM’s many imperfections within the context of the times

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Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years 

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Some useful data that helps understand USA concerns and provides shared incentives for better managing the border.

…While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet committed to a plan for increasing Canadian border security, Quebec’s Premier François Legault has called for one.“I think now’s not the time to play at whether it’s true or not that our borders are not secure. I think it’s important that a plan be tabled,” Premier Legault told reporters.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said Trump’s concerns with the U.S.-Canada borders are well founded. Her government may be sending law enforcement to the province’s shared border with Montana to develop a “specialized border patrol.”“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

“Saying we’re not as bad as [Mexico] is not going to fly in this case,” Premier Smith told CTV News.

Border crossings 

In fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 to September 2024), the number of U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) encounters at America’s northern border with Canada was nearly 200,000. Those at the U.S. border with Mexico, meanwhile, were 2.1 million.

There were just over 10 U.S. Border Patrol encounters along the Mexico-U.S. border for every one encounter along the Canada-U.S. border.

Encounters occur when the USBP locates individuals attempting to enter the country, either illegally between border posts or at official crossings without necessary paperwork like visas. It also includes those turned away because of public health rules, such as those put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Between 2022 and 2024, USBP encounters at the U.S.-Canada border nearly doubled, increasing 81 percent. Meanwhile, those at the Mexican border declined by 10 percent.

At both borders, single adults are the vast majority of those attempting to enter the U.S. At the U.S.-Canada border in 2022, single people numbered 92,737 or 84 percent of all USBP encounters. In 2024 they numbered 155,214 or 78 percent.

Families attempting to enter the U.S. unlawfully have increased remarkably.

At the Mexico-U.S. border, between 2022 and 2024, families rose from 23 to 41 percent of USBP encounters. At the Canadian border in 2022, they were just 13 percent of all encounters. This year they rose to 21 percent.

Who’s coming?

What’s also increased is both individuals and families travelling first to Canada, with the ultimate plan of making it across our southern border to the United States.

“When you see that, increasingly, the open border policies of Justin Trudeau [are] leading to people coming to Canada as a staging area to enter into the United States, to such a point that it has caught [the United States’] attention, we need to address those issues,” said Premier Smith this week.

The increase of USBP encounters at the northern U.S. border, compared to those in the U.S. south, gives some weight to this idea that migrants are increasingly using Canada’s less defended border as a first step to illegally enter the U.S.

As U.S.-Mexico border security has become tighter, human smugglers have increasingly advised clients to travel to the U.S. through the U.S.-Canada border, according to CBC reporting. Taxis services to drive migrants to New York City have reportedly boomed in New York State border towns.

In 2023, Indians were the single largest national group for attempts to cross the Canada-U.S. border, numbering 30,000.

From 2022 to 2023, USBC encounters with Venezuelans along our border increased the most relatively, from 201 to 1,375; followed by Peruvians from 148 to 662; and Mexicans from 3,221 to 11,121. Each relative increase was remarkably higher compared to those at the Mexico-U.S. border.

Other Central and South American nationals like Nicaraguans, Colombians, and Brazilians–whose countries are said to be facing a migration crisis–top the list for 2022 to 2023’s increased USBP encounters at the Canada-U.S. border. In 2023, encounters with Mexican, Nicaraguan, and Brazilian nationals at the Mexico-U.S. border actually declined, as those at Canada’s border rose remarkably.

Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, said Canada’s U.S. border presently represents an “extreme national security” vulnerability for his country….

Source: Although Canada’s U.S. border has one unlawful crossing for every 10 at the Mexico-U.S. border, our crossings have nearly doubled in the last two years

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The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

Good long read and overview. Excerpt some of the most interesting comments:

…In the rush to find ways of taming Mr. Trump’s sudden fury about the Canadian border, experts are now calling for the revival of obscure and long-dormant bilateral bodies. Former public safety minister Marco Mendicino said one way to “send a very strong signal to the president-elect” is to immediately reconvene a meeting of the Canada-U.S. Cross-Border Crime Forum, which was revived after several years in abeyance last year.

The forum, composed of Canada’s public safety and justice ministers, and the U.S. secretary of homeland security and attorney-general, is a ready-made platform for sharing intelligence and addressing concerns about human and drug smuggling across the border.

“Being pro-active is crucial, because we want to transmit that we are in total alignment when it comes to shoring up the integrity of the border,” Mr. Mendicino said.

If Canadians often thought of their border with the U.S. as a kind of decorative ticker tape, the Trump administration appears to believe the border is more like a fishing net that is full of holes. And some of the numbers do suggest that our shared border is becoming more porous to migrants and drugs, as Mr. Trump alleged in his social media post.

Statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show that roughly twice as many suspected terrorists have tried to cross from Canada into the U.S. as have from Mexico in recent years.

The data are deeply concerning for Americans in the post-9/11 era and should be taken seriously and investigated by Canadian officials, said Michael Barutciski, a York University professor of international affairs.

As recently as September, he pointed out, a Pakistani man living in the Toronto area was arrested near the border in Ormstown, Que., in September on allegations he was plotting an Islamic State-inspired mass shooting on a Jewish centre in New York. The man entered Canada on a student visa last year.

“It doesn’t look good,” said Prof. Barutciski. “It’s a very sensitive issue and they often turn to Canada as sort of a weak point and they’re paranoid about that and we can’t deny that once in a while we do give them reasons to be afraid.”

Former Conservative public safety minister Peter Van Loan thinks the fear of Canadian terror strikes in the U.S. is overblown and that the perception is worth combatting while the issue is front and centre. After all, the data on terrorists reflect those who tried to enter the country and were prevented from doing so.

“It has been a long running misunderstanding among Americans that Canada has been a source of terrorists,” he said. “None of the 9/11 terrorists came from Canada. I continually ran into American politicians who believe they did come in through Canada, and the fact is, they did not. So Canada has a bit of a public relations issue there.”

The border is certainly under growing strain from irregular migrants – although the perception that they are more likely to be criminals has been harshly scrutinized. A recent U.S. study found that undocumented immigrants in Texas, at least, had lower rates of violent crime than U.S.-born citizens….

Source: The undefended Canada-U.S. border gets renewed scrutiny as Trump’s win revives historic anxieties

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Bill C-71 – The need for a timeframe limit: My submission to the Senate’s SOCI

2024/12/02 Leave a comment

The Senate will be starting its review of Bill C-71, the government bill replacing the first generation cut-off for citizenship transmission, by a residency test for the second generation born abroad. The Senate will conduct its review this week prior to the House of Commons given that the House is effectively shut down.

I will be testifying on December 4th.

Please find attached my written submission, arguing for a same time limit of five years to meet the 1,095 day residency requirement as is the case for permanent residents applying for citizenship, and for IRCC to prepare and share its analysis of the likely number of persons affected and the operational impacts along with associated costs. (My own analysis is included in the submission).

I hope you find it interesting.

Citizenship C-71 SOCI Submission – 29 November 2024Download

Meeting notice: The subject matter of Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024)

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Québec exige la fin de l’exemption religieuse pour la propagande haineuse

2024/11/30 Leave a comment

Thorny issue, given some of the examples where appears needed and others where more questionable:

Ottawa a démontré peu d’ouverture à une demande du ministre de la Justice du Québec, Simon Jolin-Barrette, qui ne veut plus que le Code criminel permette à des individus de se livrer à de la propagande haineuse « sous le couvert de la foi ». Pour toute réponse, le gouvernement Trudeau a suggéré au ministre québécois de collaborer à l’avancement d’un projet de loi fédéral sur « les préjudices en ligne ».

Le ministre Jolin-Barrette a envoyé une lettre jeudi à son homologue canadien, Arif Virani, afin de lui demander d’abroger deux articles du Code criminel qui contreviennent, selon son interprétation, au principe de laïcité de l’État.

Ces articles — 319 (3) (b) et 319 (3.1) (b) — font partie d’une courte de liste d’exceptions pouvant être évoquées face à des accusations d’avoir fomenté volontairement la haine ou l’antisémitisme. Ils permettent à un accusé de se défendre en faisant valoir le fait d’avoir, « de bonne foi, exprimé une opinion sur un sujet religieux ou une opinion fondée sur un texte religieux auquel il croit », ou d’avoir « tenté d’en établir le bien-fondé par argument ».

De l’avis du ministre Jolin-Barrette, « cette justification est actuellement exploitée pour légitimer des propos discriminatoires ou incendiaires sous le couvert de la foi ». « Ce genre de discours contribue à un climat toxique, menaçant la sécurité et le bien-être des personnes visées », a-t-il écrit au ministre Virani.

Le cabinet du ministre Virani a fait suivre une réponse au Devoir. La directrice adjointe aux communications, Chantalle Aubertin, y a écrit qu’en guise d’« action décisive », Ottawa avait présenté la Loi sur les préjudices en ligne, « une mesure globale visant à lutter contre la propagation des discours haineux, tant en ligne que dans nos communautés ».

« Nous apprécions les observations du ministre Jolin-Barrette et restons déterminés à travailler ensemble pour trouver des solutions », a-t-elle ajouté. « Nous l’encourageons à collaborer avec les parlementaires afin de soutenir l’avancement de la Loi sur les préjudices en ligne en comité, garantissant ainsi que nous disposons des outils nécessaires pour combattre efficacement la haine », a ensuite suggéré Mme Aubertin….

Source: Québec exige la fin de l’exemption religieuse pour la propagande haineuse

Ottawa has shown little openness to a request from Quebec’s Minister of Justice, Simon Jolin-Barrette, who no longer wants the Criminal Code to allow individuals to engage in hateful propaganda “under the guise of faith”. For any response, the Trudeau government suggested that the Quebec minister collaborate in the progress of a federal bill on “online damage”.

Minister Jolin-Barrette sent a letter on Thursday to his Canadian counterpart, Arif Virani, asking him to repeal two articles of the Criminal Code that, according to his interpretation, contravene the principle of secularism of the State.

These articles – 319 (3) (b) and 319 (3.1) (b) – are part of a short list of exceptions that can be raised in the face of accusations of having voluntarily fomented hatred or anti-Semitism. They allow an accused to defend himself by asserting the fact that he has, “in good faith, expressed an opinion on a religious subject or an opinion based on a religious text in which he believes”, or that he has “tried to establish its merits by argument”.

In the opinion of Minister Jolin-Barrette, “this justification is currently exploited to legitimize discriminatory or incendiary remarks under the guise of faith”. “This kind of speech contributes to a toxic climate, threatening the safety and well-being of the people targeted,” he wrote to Minister Virani.

Minister Virani’s office forwarded a response to the Duty. Assistant Director of Communications, Chantalle Aubertin, wrote that as a “recisive action,” Ottawa had introduced the Online Injuries Act, “a comprehensive measure to combat the spread of hate speech, both online and in our communities.”

“We appreciate Minister Jolin-Barrette’s comments and remain determined to work together to find solutions,” she added. “We encourage her to work with parliamentarians to support the progress of the Online Damages Act in committee, thus ensuring that we have the necessary tools to effectively combat hatred,” Ms. Aubertin then suggested.

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Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

2024/11/30 Leave a comment

Of note:

Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorships from groups of five or more people and community organizations to help clear a backlog of applications.

The notice was published on the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada website today.

The pause is effective immediately and runs until Dec. 31, 2025.

The government says applications received annually far outpace the number of spaces for private refugee sponsorships.

The government has set a target of admitting 23,000 privately sponsored refugees in its 2025-27 immigration plan, while the total refugee target for next year is just over 58,000 people…

Source: Canada is pausing private refugee sponsorship applications until 2026

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McKinnon: The age of Canada’s exorbitant privilege is ending. Now we have to secure our future

2024/11/30 Leave a comment

From one of my former GAC colleagues and nice to see his thoughtful contribution. Immigration excerpt:

…A stark example of our broken approach to policy making was the decision to dramatically increase immigration levels to maintain economic growth, which seemed like a seemingly painless way (as opposed to serious policy choices) to do so. Ultimately, it failed even at this, as modest headline economic growth masked declining per-capita incomes. It also enabled provinces to underfund higher education by relying on foreign students paying high fees without guaranteeing them quality education. It has had unintended consequences in areas such as productivity, national security and health care. And now, support for large-scale immigration is at risk as Canadians doubt government control over borders and question the ability of governments to meet existing housing, health and education needs.

Our culture of political expediency sees immigration and, by extension, foreign policy, through largely a vote-gathering lens, rather than through the national interest. Thankfully, Canadians have largely avoided xenophobic anti-immigrant populism to date, but that could change if we do not return to an approach that benefits all of Canada. If we discourage a thoughtfully targeted migration approach, we undermine the innovation needed for our success.

That diversity is central to our prosperity, so long as diversity is not seen simply as an end in itself. The advantage of diversity is in the varying knowledge and experiences that can be brought together to find creative, productive and enduring solutions to the challenges we face. But a diverse society still needs to achieve belonging, which comes from finding common ground – not from hype about what divides us.

…It is a sad commentary on the dearth of major Canadian policy innovation and nation building that has taken place in recent decades that we must go back 40 years for inspiration, but so it is.

Back to now. Profound change in the relatively comfortable and undemanding world in which Canada has prospered has been a long time coming, but events in recent years have catalyzed the shift, meaning many Canadians are only now beginning to realize how much has changed. Action is urgently needed. But it is hard to see it happen if we do not find some common ground to bring us together to address the challenges at hand.

We have done it before. We can do it again.

Source: The age of Canada’s exorbitant privilege is ending. Now we have to secure our future

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