Dispatch from the Front Lines: Peace, order and really bad governmenting [sic, immigration]

2024/11/19 Leave a comment

Hard to disagree “The upshot of all this is that Canada’s immigration system is no longer the prized coconut of old. Today, it’s more like a post-Halloween pumpkin — rotten all the way through.:”

…Eight years later, it is all in tatters. After letting in record numbers of immigrantspost-pandemic, the federal government has lost almost complete control of who comes into the country, and who stays. Unsurprisingly, for the first time in a quarter century, popular opinion has turned sharply against our still-high immigration levels. And a populist policy backlash is brewing in the form of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives or, worse, Donald Trump’s MAGA crazies. 

And so after nine years of smugly lecturing the world and their fellow Canadians about their superior virtue, it seems to be slowly dawning on the Liberals just how badly they have screwed things up. But as night follows day, as sunshine follows rain, as the Leafs lose in the first round of the playoffs, everything the Liberals do to fix the problem only makes things worse. 

In October, the government turned on a dime and realised that maybe their target of 500,000 newcomers per year for the next two years might be a bit more than the system could take. So they cut that figure by about a fifth, targeting 395,000 permanent residents in 2025, with that number dropping to 365,000 by 2027. 

This came after an announcement earlier in the year that Ottawa would be capping international student visas, which come with a highly prized post graduate work permit. While there was no guarantee this would lead to permanent residency, the promise that this would be the case was pretty much implicit. Come here and study, stick around and work, bring your family over and stay — that was the Canadian dream for hundreds of thousands of foreign students, encouraged ad nauseaum by federal politicians. But in September, Ottawa announced that it would not be renewing the work permits for current permit holders, with 200,000 of those set to expire by the end of 2025. 

Anyone think those 200,000 former students are going to just pack up and head home next year? Don’t make us ell oh ell. 

Indeed, count us amongst the ranks of the completely unsurprised when it was reported this week that so far this year, 14,000 people here on international student visas had filed refugee claims between January 1 and September 1 of this year. It was already a record, surpassing the 12,000 asylum claims filed in 2023. And the final 2024 number will be almost an order of magnitude higher than the 1,800 such claims that were filed in 2018. 

Immigration minister Marc Miller was quick to denounce these as largely false claims, filed in bad faith by students advised to do so by unscrupulous consultants. Well, maybe. But hey, if they are false claims, the feds can always just deny them and send these fraudsters home, no?

Well, no. Because in addition to losing control of the immigration system, Ottawa has also lost control of the refugee claimant system. As the Globe writes in an excellent editorial this weekend, when the Liberals came to power in 2015, the backlog of refugee claimants was a hair under 10,000 claims. Today, there are well over a quarter of a million (!!!) pending cases, and the IRB is losing ground every day, not gaining. The wait for a refugee hearing is now in the ballpark of four years, during which claimants are entitled to both work and study. And on the off chance Ottawa denies your claim four years from now, what are the odds you will actually get put on a plane and sent home? Almost zilch. The result is a vicious cycle where the more claims that are made, the longer they will take to be processed, which raises the incentive for making a claim, and so on. 

The upshot of all this is that Canada’s immigration system is no longer the prized coconut of old. Today, it’s more like a post-Halloween pumpkin — rotten all the way through.  

It’s not clear what is to be done about this, short of simply closing the border for a few years until we get things under control. One possibility would be for Canada to declare something like immigration bankruptcy: Every non citizen in the country on a certain date, regardless of the status as a student, immigrant, or refugee claimant, gets permanent residency. After that, visa requests and refugee claims get processed as they come in under a new set of hard and transparent rules.

More than likely, though, the Liberals will keep muddling along, making the problem worse and worse and worse as they continue to play whack a mole with each new unintended side effect of their ad hoc policy making. You can be sure the Trump people are paying close attention….

Source: Dispatch from the Front Lines: Peace, order and really bad governmenting

Filed under Immigration Tagged with ,

Judge James Ho Kicks Off The Auditions For Trump’s Next Supreme Court Pick [birthright citizenship]

2024/11/19 Leave a comment

The malleability of legal reasoning and principles (or lack thereof) never ceases to amaze me:

The audition process for potential open Supreme Court seats is off and running, thanks to the possibility that conservative justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas could decide to retire during Donald Trump’s second term.

First out of the gate is the hard-right Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals Judge James Ho. In an interview with the conservative lawyer Josh Blackman, Ho, who was appointed to his current job by Trump, redefined his position on one of the most controversial issues likely to arise in Trump’s second term — and one of the few points on which he and Trump had disagreed — in order to ingratiate himself with the incoming president.

That issue is the 14th Amendment’s grant of birthright citizenship to (almost) all children born on U.S. soil.

Trump has promised to end birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants, but as it now stands, that would be in plain violation of the Constitution and of the judiciary’s interpretation of the 14th amendment going back to 1898.

Previously, Ho endorsed the widely accepted view that birthright citizenship for everyone born on U.S. soil, except for the children of foreign diplomats. In a 2006 paper titled “Defining ‘American’: Birthright Citizenship And The Original Understanding Of The 14th Amendment,” Ho made an originalist defense of the judiciary’s long-standing interpretation of birthright citizenship while arguing that the only way it could be restricted would be through a constitutional amendment — a much higher bar than Trump, acting on his own, could clear.

With Trump’s imminent return to the White House, Ho has now endorsed a tortured revision of his previous position that rests on endorsing Trump’s view that immigrants constitute an invasion.

“Anyone who reads my prior writings on these topics should see a direct connection between birthright citizenship and invasion,” Ho said in the interview with Blackman.

“Birthright citizenship is supported by various Supreme Court opinions, both unanimous and separate opinions involving Justices Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and others. But birthright citizenship obviously doesn’t apply in case of war or invasion. No one to my knowledge has ever argued that the children of invading aliens are entitled to birthright citizenship. And I can’t imagine what the legal argument for that would be.”

Source: Judge James Ho Kicks Off The Auditions For Trump’s Next Supreme Court Pick

Filed under Birthright Citizenship, Citizenship Tagged with ,

Haitian immigrants flee Springfield, Ohio, in droves after Trump election win

2024/11/19 Leave a comment

More anecdotal than hard numbers but likely:

From a tiny office behind a Haitian grocery store on Springfield’s South Limestone Street, Margery Koveleski has spent years helping local Haitians overcome bureaucratic red tape to make their lives in the Ohio city a little bit easier.

But Koveleski – whose family is Haitian – has noticed a major change recently.

Haitians are now coming to her to figure out how to leave.

“Some folks don’t have credit cards or access to the internet, and they want to buy a bus ticket or a plane ticket, so we help them book a flight,” she told the Guardian recently. “People are leaving.”

Koveleski, leaders in Springfield’s Haitian community, and others have relayed reports of Haitians fleeing the city of 60,000 people in recent days for fear of being rounded up and deported after Donald Trump’s victory in the 5 November presidential election.

“The owner of one store is wondering if he should move back to New York or to Chicago – he says his business is way down,” Koveleski remarked.

Trump has repeatedly said he would end immigrants’ temporary protected status (TPS) – the provision through which many Haitians are legally allowed to live and work in the US – and deport Haitians from Springfield once in office.

For many, the threats are real.

A sheriff in Sidney, a town 40 miles (64km) north-west of Springfield that is home to several dozen Haitian immigrants, allegedly told local police in September to “get a hold of these people and arrest them”.

“Bring them – I’ll figure out if they’re legal,” he said, referencing Haitian immigrants in the area.

As Jacob Payen, a co-founder of the Haitian Community Alliance who runs a business that includes helping Haitians in Springfield to file tax returns, said: “People are fully aware of the election result, and that is why they are leaving; they are afraid of a mass deportation.

“Several of my customers have left. One guy with his family went to New Jersey; others have gone to Boston. I know three families that have gone to Canada.”

Some are thought to have moved to nearby cities such as Dayton, where they believe they would be less visible to law enforcement. Others who had temporary asylum in Brazil are pondering going back to the South American country, community leaders say.

Springfield’s Haitian community has been in the spotlight since Trump falsely accused immigrants here of eating pets during a presidential debate in September. Since then, the city has seen false bomb threats and marches by neo-Nazi groups after having experienced a revival in recent years in large part because of Haitians who took jobs in local produce packaging and machining factories that many previously there found undesirable….

Source: Haitian immigrants flee Springfield, Ohio, in droves after Trump election win

Filed under Multiculturalism Tagged with ,

Canadian citizen sparks outrage with claim that Indian women fly to Canada for free births, citizenship at taxpayer cost

2024/11/19 Leave a comment

This is getting a lot of coverage in Indian media despite being more an anecdote than buttressed by data. Expect to have updated non-resident self-pay data from CIHI, the best approximation of birth tourism data available shortly.

Unfortunately,this does not capture country of origin and there is no equivalent to Richmond General which had a highly visible cottage industry catering to birth tourists for Chinese women:

A video by Canadian citizen claimed pregnant Indian women were flooding Canadian maternity wards to secure citizenship for their babies, sparking heated debate.

Amid growing diplomatic tensions between India and Canada, a viral video has added fuel to the fire, further igniting the ongoing debate about immigration and healthcare policies. The video, shared by Canadian user Chad Eros on X, claims that Canadian maternity wards are being flooded by pregnant Indian women who are flying to Canada to give birth and secure Canadian citizenship for their babies. This provocative statement has captured the attention of many, adding another layer to the already heated discourse surrounding the two nations.

A heated rant over healthcare and citizenship

In his video, the Canadian citizen expresses frustration over what he perceives as an abuse of Canada’s healthcare system. He claims that these women are taking advantage of the country’s maternity services to ensure that their children are granted Canadian citizenship, all at the expense of Canadian taxpayers.

Chad goes on to share a personal story about his niece, who recently gave birth in a Canadian maternity ward. According to Chad, a nurse told his niece that the ward was full of foreign Indian women coming to Canada for the sole purpose of delivering their babies. Chad argues that while Canadian hospitals are obligated to provide care to all, these women are occupying valuable space in maternity wards that could be used by Canadian citizens.

Source: Canadian citizen sparks outrage with claim that Indian women fly to Canada for free births, citizenship at taxpayer cost


Filed under Birthright Citizenship, Citizenship Tagged with

Angus Reid: Great Expectations or Bleak House? Most Canadians are happy, but life outlooks have worsened over past decade

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Interesting insight but intuitively makes sense:

Notably, there does appear to be a correlation between one’s time in Canada and levels of satisfaction, which also relates to ethnicity. White Canadians and those born in Canada are more likely to say they’re happy overall. Those who have been in Canada for two decades or less are close to twice as likely as others to say they’re not happy at all:

Income plays a significant role in happiness, with those in the lowest income group twice as likely as those in the highest to say that they’re “not happy at all”. Half of this lower income group are happy (50%), while half are not (47%). Seven-in-10 (69%) in the highest income group say they’re happy, more than twice as many as say they are not (29%)…

Source: Great Expectations or Bleak House? Most Canadians are happy, but life outlooks have worsened over past decade

Filed under Immigration Tagged with ,

Ham: Canada’s immigration crackdown could make for a more willing partner in Trump

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Perhaps but would not count on it. More likely that it will make it easier for a Conservative government as the Liberals will no longer be able to play the xenophobia card.:

…However, recent immigration crackdowns in Canada could move the close allies even closer, making for a more robust and bountiful relationship during Trump’s second four-year term. Recent moves by Ottawa on immigration could be the North Star that guides and even informs a nascent framework, still in the developmental stages, by an incoming administration bent on taking a hardline approach to the challenging issue.

Canada has turned away nearly 4,000 people per month(opens in a new tab) on average in 2024, a 20 per cent  increase over the 3,271 average in 2023. Moreover, immigration officials have refused more visitor visa applications per month than it has accepted.

In fact, in July of 2024, Ottawa turned away 5,853 foreign travellers; the most rejections since January 2019. Data also shows a sharp decline in approved visitor visas(opens in a new tab) as well as study and work permits, which had previously reached record highs in 2022 and 2023. With such an about face on immigration shown by Canada, the incoming Trump administration should be a more welcome and willing partner towards its northern neighbour. ..

Eric Ham is a bestselling author and former congressional staffer in the U.S. Congress. He served as a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He resides in Washington, DC.

Source: Canada’s immigration crackdown could make for a more willing partner in Trump

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Permit processing setback for Indian students in Canada

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Of note, primarily colleges (where the excesses and abuses largely occurred:

…Introduced in 2018, SDS enabled students from select countries, including India, to fast-track their applications if they fulfilled certain requirements, including securing a Canadian Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) valued at CA$20,635 (US$14,731) and submitting English or French language test scores. 

It notably shortened the waiting time for permits, allowing successful applicants to obtain visas within weeks, in contrast to the average processing time of eight weeks for Indian applicants under the standard application process.

The changes came into effect on 8 November, but students who submitted applications before that date will still be processed through the expedited stream. Indian students will now have to apply for study permits through Canada’s standard study permit stream. 

Originally accessible to applicants from China, India, and the Philippines, the programme subsequently broadened its scope to include additional countries, including Antigua and Barbuda, Brazil, Colombia, and Morocco, among others.

Canadian immigration authorities state the discontinuation of the SDS and NSE programmes is aimed at “strengthening programme integrity”, and is designed to create “a more equitable process” for international students, ensuring fair treatment for applicants from all countries.

Prioritising university applicants

Students from Punjab are more likely to be impacted as they enrol in Canada’s community colleges, while Canadian universities attract more students from large cities elsewhere in India, education agents said. 

“With Canada’s new cap of 437,000 study permits for 2025, I think this signals a clear shift toward prioritising degree-seeking students over diploma programmes,” said Maria Mathai, director of New Delhi-based education consultancy MM Advisory Services.

Mathai told University World News that the most immediate impact will be felt in the college sector, which accounted for 75% of SDS applications post-pandemic. She noted it could lead to an overall drop in approval rates.

In 2023, 60% of the 400,000 Indian students seeking to study in Canada applied through the SDS programme, which had a significantly higher approval rate – over 70% of applicants from India received study permits. 

In contrast, those applying through the regular study permit stream experienced much lower approval rates, at just 10%.

“Students pursuing diploma programmes, particularly from Punjab, will indeed face processing times which will increase from 1-3 weeks to 4-8 weeks,” said Mathai, adding it was to be expected as the original programme was launched to promote college applications….

Source: Permit processing setback for Indian students in Canada

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Public service job cuts loom as Ottawa misses spending and deficit targets

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Will likely be brutal with a change in government:

…Some argue part of the problem is today’s bureaucrats aren’t used to austerity and have only known growth for the past decade.

Today’s leaders may have been in the public service during the Harper government’s downsizing, but few were in senior positions directly responsible for managing those cuts. Back then, the government did regular strategic reviews, which were key to identifying budget cuts and the thousands of jobs that were eliminated. The Liberals had pledged a similar strategic review in their election platform, but it has yet to materialize, leaving some to question how prepared departments are to tackle current fiscal pressures.

It’s unclear what progress the government had made on these reductions. In fact, a PBO report that tracked the Liberals various spending reviews flagged the difficulty tracking the “overall plans, progress, and results” because there is no central document publicly available…

“There’s a coming squeeze here…and something has to give,” said Khan. A Liberal or a Conservative government in the future is “going to face the same stark choice. Before you cut programs that people want or need, the outsized growth of the public service has to be on the table. The unions will face this no matter who’s in power. It’s not going to go away.”

Source: Public service job cuts loom as Ottawa misses spending and deficit targets

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects – September 2024 Third Quarter

2024/11/18 Leave a comment

Highlights (some data not yet posted on open data)

  • Permanent residents admissions: Increase January-September from 370,000 in 2023 to 379,000 in 2024 or 2.3 percent.   
  • TR2PR (Those already in Canada): Increase January-September from 199,000 in 2023 to 205,000 in 2024 or 3.3 percent. 
  • TRs-IMP: Decrease January-September from 681,000 in 2023 to 584,000 in 2024 or -14.2 percent.
  • TRs-TFWP: Decrease January-September from 160,000 in 2023 to 153,000 in 2024 or -4.0 percent.
  • Students: Decrease January-September from 544,000 in 2023 to 428,000 in 2024 or -21.3 percent. 
  • Asylum Claimants: Increase January-September from 100,000 in 2023 to 135,000 in 2024 or 34.6 percent.
  • Citizenship: Increase from 33,179 in June to 36,070 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): 15.4% (25.0%). Year-to date 2024 compared to 2023 increase of 16 percent OPEN DATA NOT UPDATED FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER
  • Visitor Visas: Increase from 118,402 in June to 127,399 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): -19.7% (37.6%). OPEN DATA NOT UPDATED FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/canadian-immigration-tracker-key-slides-september-2024/273373580

Filed under Citizenship, Immigration Tagged with , ,

PBO: Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap 

2024/11/16 Leave a comment

Good assessment, particularly with projected outflows of temporary residents. Key findings:

  • Assuming that the population evolves in line with the Government’s projection, we estimate that the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan will reduce Canada’s housing gap in 2030 by 534,000 units (45 per cent). After accounting for the Government’s new immigration plan, we estimate Canada’s housing gap in 2030 to be 658,000 units.
  • Combined with our updated baseline outlook of 1.7 million net housing completions, closing the housing gap in Canada would require a total of 2.3 million housing completions by 2030, which would translate into 390,000 total units completed annually, on average, over 2025 to 2030.
  • We judge that there is significant risk to the demographic projection presented in the Government’s new immigration plan—particularly to the projected outflow of non-permanent residents. Our estimated reductions in household formation and the housing gap are uncertain and likely represent upper-bound estimates.

On October 24, the Government released its 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP), which included permanent resident targets and, for the first time, temporary resident targets for international students and temporary foreign workers. For permanent residents, the plan highlights a decrease in permanent resident admissions from 464,265 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. For non-permanent residents (NPRs), the plan presents arrival targets set with the goal of reducing the number of NPRs to 5 per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

Given the immigration targets announced in this plan, the Government projects that the Canadian population will decline by 0.2 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, before returning to population growth of 0.8 per cent in 2027. If the population evolves as the Government projects, it will be the first time Canada experiences an annual decline in its population. Although the ILP projects fewer permanent resident admissions and fewer NPR arrivals, the projected decline in the population will be driven by large outflows of NPRs. Excluding individuals who will transition to permanent residency, the plan assumes that 2.8 million temporary residents will leave the country over the next 3 years—equivalent to 93 per cent of the current NPR population….

Source: Impact of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan on Canada’s Housing Gap

Filed under Immigration Tagged with ,

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