Long-form census: Internal survey blasts feds for missing database

2014/05/12 Leave a comment

No surprise that there are continued complaints regarding the quality of data when the government replaced the mandatory census with the voluntary national household survey.

One would hope that the abuse of the Temporary Foreign Worker program, in part due to policy choices but also due to incomplete labour market information would teach the government the consequences of quality data:

Last year, the department consulted more than 80 users in four cities about the website and its trove of newly released digital information — and heard widespread feedback about data missing because of the demise of the mandatory long-form census.

“At four of the five meetings, large numbers of stakeholders raised concerns about the termination of the mandatory long form census,” says a report on the consultations, obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.

The complaints echo an audit last week from the auditor general of Canada, who found the voluntary National Household Survey in 2011 cost taxpayers $22 million more than the mandatory long-form census it replaced — and produced far less reliable data.

‘Large numbers of stakeholders raised concerns about the termination of the mandatory long form census.’

Statistics Canada eventually withheld the release of survey data for one of every four municipalities and other census sub-divisions because of the poor quality of the numbers.

“As a result of data not being released due to quality concerns, potential users of this data for approximately 25 per cent of geographic areas do not have reliable National Household Survey data available for their use,” said Michael Ferguson’s report.

Long-form census: Internal survey blasts feds for missing database – Politics – CBC News.

Filed under Public Policy Tagged with ,

Job-vacancy rate plunges as Tories drop Kijiji data – Evidence vs Anecdote

2014/05/06 1 Comment

A reminder that bad and incomplete data can lead to bad policy decisions and arguments, as exemplified by the over-stating of labour shortages and justification for programs like Temporary Foreign Workers.

Employment and Social Development Canada recently revised its Employment Insurance, Monitoring and Assessment report to take out weak data from on-line sites like Kijiji (see earlier post How Kijiji’s data threw off Ottawa’s math on skills shortages – The Globe and Mail):

“There’s isn’t really any good data out there. Online postings are online postings. How well can you clean those up?” he [Mostafa Askari] asked, pointing out the need to avoid double counting jobs or counting jobs that have been filled but were not taken offline. He said the solution would be to give Statistics Canada more money to improve its research on job vacancies, which are based on surveys of employers.

“I think Statscan can definitely provide better data if they have the means to,” he said. “I assume they are obviously under budget constraints as well. So they have to put that as a priority but they won’t do it unless there’s pressure on them to provide that kind of information.”

Job-vacancy rate plunges as Tories drop Kijiji data – The Globe and Mail.

Konrad Yakabuski’s take on the problem with big data and lack of rigour in analysis:

Yet, if Mr. Kenney and his advisers are guilty of anything, it is of falling victim to the same social media hype that has led many data enthusiasts to spurn official statistics as oh-so yesterday. Want to know if the flu is headed your way or the housing market is set to take off? Why, go to Google Trends. Forget the official unemployment rate. Just track “lost my job” on Twitter.

The idea that the trillions of bytes of data we generate on social media are equipping policy-makers with vast new predictive powers is all the rage these days. Official statistics, the kind compiled by bureaucrats through scientifically tested surveys and representative samples, seem to bore the geeks. But they get all hot and bothered at the mere mention of the word algorithm….

This is but one example of how big data can lead to misguided policy. Mr. Kenney’s Kijiji snafu is another. You’d think this would make people cautious. But in our insatiable desire to make sense out of an increasingly complex world, we are turning evermore to big data to sort it out.

The latest trend is “data journalism” with The New York Times and several upstart media outlets hiring an army of twentysomething computer geeks to massage the numbers in order to spot trends, predict elections and provide funky, counterintuitive insights in the vein of Freakonomics.

The problem is that much of what they report is probably wrong, or at least tendentious. The Upshot, The Times feature launched April 22, has come under fire for stories that either read too much into the data or leave too much out. “First-rate analysis requires more than pretty graphs based on opaque manipulations of data unsuited to address the central substantive points,” prominent U.S. political scientist Larry Bartels wrote in response to one piece on Southern politics.

The most common sin in data journalism is making spurious correlations. Just because Google searches of the term “mortgage” have closely tracked Canadian housing sales in the past two years means nothing on its own.

Big data’s noise is drowning out the signal

A final irony, the final report of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Committee on the Public Service comes out at the same time as these news reports, affirming the need for outside information and discounting the value of more objective surveys:

New sources of information and data have shaken up the process of providing advice to government, he [David Emerson] said, and the public service is adapting to accept data from outside Statistics Canada or other traditional sources.

“I think we made some real progress in helping public servants to open up and I think political staff now have access to a lot of that same information, so there are checks and balances that I think are a little sharper-edged than they were perhaps in the past,” he said.

While I don’t disagree with opening up, we also need to learn the lessons from Kijiji jobs data, ensure better quality control and analysis, and strengthen the role of official statistics and Statistics Canada.

PS thinking more about the digital revolution: Emerson

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with , ,

Canada hires rookie groups to lead Ukraine election observers

2014/05/01 Leave a comment

While not clear why the Government chose inexperienced organizations to lead Canada’s team of observers to Ukrainian elections compared to Canadem (public service advice was clear), the size of the delegation reflects diaspora politics. Understandable that governments want more visibility than contributions to international organizations, but still questionable:

Canada’s assignment of such large numbers of bilateral observers — the Liberals did it first in 2004, and the Conservatives have followed suit — has continued despite internal warnings.

One such warning came from Bob Johnston, a regional director general with the former Canadian International Development Agency, in a January 2012 memo.

Johnston recommended Canada channel its election observation efforts through the internationally recognized leader in the field, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE.

However, Johnston noted the government may want to send in short-term bilateral observers “to demonstrate Canada’s commitment to Ukraine’s democratic development” — a message that Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his cabinet have repeatedly emphasized.

“If this option is selected, Canadem would again be the only possible partner,” Johnston wrote.

Johnston’s boss, then CIDA president, Margaret Biggs, agreed.

“Canadem, a Canadian NGO with a long track record of recruiting, training, and deploying election observers, is the proposed implementing organization,” Biggs wrote in a July 2012 memo. CIDA has since been merged into Foreign Affairs….

Veteran Canadian election observers, who have served on numerous international missions, criticized the government for sending such large numbers of bilateral observers when no other country does so. They agreed to speak on the condition they not be identified because all are independent contractors who rely on international work for their livelihoods.

They say the government is sending large numbers of observers to win votes at home because there are an estimated 1.2 million people of Ukrainian descent in Canada.

“You’ve got the gold standard with the OSCE, and we’re sending the maximum contribution we can send anyway. On top of that, for domestic political reasons we’re sending another however-many-Canadians for no reason at all,” said one observer.

Canada hires rookie groups to lead Ukraine election observers.

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with ,

The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest

2014/04/24 Leave a comment

Understandably, the Government has claimed credit for Canada now having a higher middle class income than the US (any government would do the same, even though this is a 30-year trend involving many governments).

I recall during the 1990s the then Mulroney government had a “prosperity initiative” that included studies by Michael Porter who was then a major figure on theories and factors involved in growth (and has broadened his focus since then: see We’re Not No. 1! We’re Not No. 1! – Porter’s Social Competitiveness Report). At the time, one of the talking points was that Canada was a Honda Civic nation, the US was a Honda Accord. Times have changed.

And the most interesting part is the explanation, which has public policy implications:

Three broad factors appear to be driving much of the weak income performance in the United States. First, educational attainment in the United States has risen far more slowly than in much of the industrialized world over the last three decades, making it harder for the American economy to maintain its share of highly skilled, well-paying jobs.

Americans between the ages of 55 and 65 have literacy, numeracy and technology skills that are above average relative to 55- to 65-year-olds in rest of the industrialized world, according to a recent study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an international group. Younger Americans, though, are not keeping pace: Those between 16 and 24 rank near the bottom among rich countries, well behind their counterparts in Canada, Australia, Japan and Scandinavia and close to those in Italy and Spain.

A second factor is that companies in the United States economy distribute a smaller share of their bounty to the middle class and poor than similar companies elsewhere. Top executives make substantially more money in the United States than in other wealthy countries. The minimum wage is lower. Labor unions are weaker.

And because the total bounty produced by the American economy has not been growing substantially faster here in recent decades than in Canada or Western Europe, most American workers are left receiving meager raises.

American Incomes Are Losing Their Edge, Except at the TopInflation-adjusted, after-tax income over time

Finally, governments in Canada and Western Europe take more aggressive steps to raise the take-home pay of low- and middle-income households by redistributing income.

The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest – NYTimes.com.

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with , , ,

Andrew Coyne: Free speech withers when we abandon judgment, proportion, open-mindedness and tolerance

2014/04/23 Leave a comment

Andrew Coyne’s more balanced take on recent free speech controversies:

People arbitrarily declaring issues “settled” about which there remains room for doubt, or at least for honest error, or trying to open issues that really are settled. How should we tell the difference? There are rules of thumb — whether it involves modelling highly complex phenomena decades into the future, like global warming, or whether, like evolution, it involves explanations of the existing order that have been tested and refined over 150 years. But mostly it is a matter of judgment.

Judgment, proportion, humility, open-mindedness, tolerance for human frailty: these are the soil in which free speech flourishes. Where we abandon them, it withers.

Andrew Coyne: Free speech withers when we abandon judgment, proportion, open-mindedness and tolerance | National Post.

Filed under Other, Public Policy Tagged with ,

Decision-Making: Refugee claim acceptance in Canada appears to be ‘luck of the draw’ despite reforms, analysis shows

2014/04/17 Leave a comment

Interesting from a decision-making perspective.

Reading this reminded me of some of Daniel Kahneman’s similar work where he showed considerable variability in decision-making, even depending on the time of day. A reminder of the difficulty of ensuring consistent decision-making, given that people are people, automatic thinking, reflecting our experiences and perceptions, is often as important as more deliberative thinking. No easy solutions but regular analysis of decisions and feedback may help:

There are legitimate reasons why decisions by some adjudicators lean in one direction, such as adjudicators specializing in claimants from a certain region. (Someone hearing cases from Syria will have a higher acceptance rate than someone hearing claims from France.) Some members hear more expedited cases, which are typically urgent claims with specific aggravating or mitigating facts.

“My view is that even when you try to control for those sorts of differences, a very large difference in acceptance rates still exists,” said Mr. Rehaag. “You get into the more idiosyncratic elements of individual identity.”

These may reflect the politics of the adjudicator or impressions about a country. If adjudicators have been on a relaxing holiday in a country they may be less likely to accept a claimant faces horrors there.

Refugee claim acceptance in Canada appears to be ‘luck of the draw’ despite reforms, analysis shows | National Post.

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with , ,

How politics makes us stupid – Vox

2014/04/09 Leave a comment

Interesting research on how we make decisions based on our pre-conceptions and our group identity/ideology:

[Yale Law professor Dan] Kahan doesn’t find it strange that we react to threatening information by mobilizing our intellectual artillery to destroy it. He thinks it’s strange that we would expect rational people to do anything else. “Nothing any ordinary member of the public personally believes about the existence, causes, or likely consequences of global warming will affect the risk that climate changes poses to her, or to anyone or anything she cares about,” Kahan writes. “However, if she forms the wrong position on climate change relative to the one that people with whom she has a close affinity — and on whose high regard and support she depends on in myriad ways in her daily life — she could suffer extremely unpleasant consequences, from shunning to the loss of employment.”

Kahan’s research tells us we can’t trust our own reason. How do we reason our way out of that?

Kahan calls this theory Identity-Protective Cognition: “As a way of avoiding dissonance and estrangement from valued groups, individuals subconsciously resist factual information that threatens their defining values.” Elsewhere, he puts it even more pithily: “What we believe about the facts,” he writes, “tells us who we are.” And the most important psychological imperative most of us have in a given day is protecting our idea of who we are, and our relationships with the people we trust and love.

How politics makes us stupid – Vox.

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with , ,

Daniel Kahneman Testimonials

2014/04/05 Leave a comment

For policy wonks and “nudge nerds”, a good collection of testimonials to the impact of Daniel Kahneman’s work, summarized in his best-selling book, Thinking Fast and Slow. One example from Richard Thaler and Sendhil Mullainathan:

Kahneman and Tversky’s work did not just attack rationality, it offered a constructive alternative: a better description of how humans think. People, they argued, often use simple rules of thumb to make judgments, which incidentally is a pretty smart thing to do. But this is not the insight that left us one step from doing behavioral economics. The breakthrough idea was that these rules of thumb could be catalogued. And once understood they can be used to predict where people will make systematic errors. Those two words are what made behavioral economics possible.

Consider their famous representativeness heuristic, the tendency to judge probabilities by similarity. Use of this heuristic can lead people to make forecasts that are too extreme, often based on sample sizes that are too small to offer reliable predictions. As a result, we can expect forecasters to be predictably surprised when they draw on small samples. When they are very optimistic, the outcomes will tend to be worse than they thought, and unduly pessimistic forecasts will lead to pleasant but unexpected surprises. To the great surprise to economists who had put great faith in the efficiency of markets, this simple idea led to the discovery of large mispricing in domains that vary from stock markets to the selection of players in the National Football League.

ON KAHNEMAN | Edge.org.

Filed under Public Policy Tagged with , ,

We’re Not No. 1! We’re Not No. 1! – Porter’s Social Competitiveness Report

2014/04/05 2 Comments

Interesting, and a reminder that GDP, while important, is one indicator among many. I remember Porter’s earlier work which was very influential in the 80s and 90s. Canada scored 7th, the highest among G7 countries:

The Social Progress Index is a brainchild of Michael E. Porter, the eminent Harvard business professor who earlier helped develop the Global Competitiveness Report. Porter is a Republican whose work, until now, has focused on economic metrics.

“This is kind of a journey for me,” Porter told me. He said that he became increasingly aware that social factors support economic growth: tax policy and regulations affect economic prospects, but so do schooling, health and a society’s inclusiveness.

So Porter and a team of experts spent two years developing this index, based on a vast amount of data reflecting suicide, property rights, school attendance, attitudes toward immigrants and minorities, opportunity for women, religious freedom, nutrition, electrification and much more.

We’re Not No. 1! We’re Not No. 1! – NYTimes.com.

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with , ,

Donald Savoie: Why Canada’s public service is declining and why it matters

2014/04/04 Leave a comment

Good short interview with Donald Savoie:

Show me a weak country and I will show you a country with a weak public service. Every country needs a referee and the referee has to be the public service. No country can operate without a referee. You take the public service out of Canadian society and you will have chaos. We all need to recognize the public service is going through an extremely difficult period. There are three fundamental phases to the public service. The first one was when they put the infrastructure in place in the early days, canals, roads, railways. The second was post-world-war Keynesian economics – the government decided it could do everything in every sector. It grew by leaps and bounds, young university graduates flocked to it. It was the happy phase. We are now into the third phase, saying ‘oh, we overshot.’ We got government into things that government ought not to have been into. So how do we fix things?

Donald Savoie: Why Canada’s public service is declining and why it matters – The Globe and Mail.

Filed under Government, Public Policy Tagged with ,

← Older posts

Newer posts →