Hopeful immigrants to Canada are learning French after other paths to permanent residency prove difficult

2024/09/14 Leave a comment

Not entirely unexpected as many applicants will explore different options. Some of the individual cases cited suggest a level of determination and work ethic that make them likely to be successful immigrants:

…Some economists have criticized prioritizing French-language skills for immigrant selection, saying it affects Canada’s ability to attract top talent.

University of Waterloo’s Prof. Skuterud points out that giving priority to French-language speakers with lower scores means that a large number of applicants with scores above 500 – who have the potential of making higher incomes but don’t speak French – aren’t invited to apply.

“This is the trade-off we have: computer science students at the University of Waterloo are getting frustrated and saying I’m going somewhere else,” Prof. Skuterud said. “This is a huge problem if what you care about is productivity, which is what everybody is talking about now.”

It comes down to the society’s priority whether it’s for labour market success or letting in immigrants that will assimilate into Francophone culture, said Philip Oreopoulos, an economics professor at the University of Toronto.

Prof. Oreopoulos agrees that the new category doesn’t maximize chances for immigrants’ productivity. “I don’t think outside of Quebec, favouring more points for knowing French would lead to better labour market success than, say, favouring graduate education,” he said.

Jeffrey MacDonald, a communications adviser at the Ministry of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, points out that supporting francophone immigration is part of an obligation Canada made in its Official Languages Act. And, he added in an e-mail, the new French-language category “will contribute to stronger and more prosperous Francophone communities for generations to come.”

Source: Hopeful immigrants to Canada are learning French after other paths to permanent residency prove difficult

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COVID-19 Immigration Effects – July 2024 update

2024/09/14 Leave a comment

Highlights:

  • Permanent residents admissions: PR Admissions: Increase from 44,530 in June to 47,770 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022 in parentheses): Economic – PNP 34.9% (15.0%), Economic – Federal 11.7% (0.7%), Family 2.8% (-2.1%), Refugees 14.4% (30.8%)
  • TR2PR (Those already in Canada): Increase from 19,170 in June (43% of all PRs) to 22,100 in July (46.3% of all PRs). July year-over-year change (change from 2022): 10.6% (32.5%)
  • TRs-IMP: Decrease from 70,435 in June to 61,510 in July. July year-over-year (change from 2022): Agreements: 205.6% (-32.8%), Canadian Interests: -27.7% (29.9%), Other IMP Participants -56.1% (430.3%), Not stated -18.0% (-17.7%)
  • TRs-TFWs: Decrease from 19,230 in June to15,330 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): Caregivers -18.8% (0.0%), Agriculture -23.0% (-19.5%) and Other LMIA -9.4% (79.4%).
  • NEW: TRs by occupation code (June, will be updated quarterly): 58 % low-wage (D), year-over-year change (change from 2022) 18.5% (571.3%): 
  • Students: Increase from 29,420 in June to 35,105 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2023): -35.4% post-secondary -41.5% (-5.1%). Year-to date 2024 compared to 2023 decline of 4 percent 
  • Asylum Claimants: Stable, from 14,485 in June to 14,825 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): 23.4% (90.1%)
  • Citizenship: Increase from 33,179 in June to 36,070 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): 15.4% (25.0%). Year-to date 2024 compared to 2023 increase of 16 percent
  • Visitor Visas: Increase from 118,402 in June to 127,399 in July. July year-over-year change (change from 2022): -19.7% (37.6%).Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.

https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/canadian-immigration-tracker-key-slides-july-2024-pdf/271760138

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LILLEY: Poilievre promises to cap immigration, tie it to housing

2024/09/13 Leave a comment

The devil, as in all areas of policy, and particularly in immigration and citizenship policy, will lie in the details and how a Conservative government deals with pressures from the business community and provincial governments:

Part of Pierre Poilievre’s plan to deal with Canada’s housing crisis will be to cap immigration. The Conservative leader said if he wins the next election, he’ll bring sanity back to Canada’s immigration system.

Poilievre was speaking with reporters ahead of Parliament’s return from the summer break. He said that when MPs return to Ottawa next Monday, he will try and defeat the government and force an election as soon as possible.

If he wins the election, he promises across-the-board changes on immigration.

“We will cap population growth so that the housing stock always grows faster than the population,” Poilievre said.

In the middle of a housing crisis, at a time when we are bringing in more than 1 million people per year, his statement sounds like common sense. While Poilievre said exact numbers would come before the next election, he said this policy idea is really about math, not immigration.

“We’re building like 240,000 homes, that’s like a 1.4% increase in our housing supply. You can’t grow the population faster than that, unless you’re going to have worse housing shortages,” he said.

“Under Trudeau and the NDP, we’ve been growing the population by almost 3%, but we grow the housing stock by 1.4%. No wonder we’re running out of homes.”

He also said he’d scale back the international student program.

“We’re going to bring home the international student system we had before Justin Trudeau. Which was a modest number of young people who were extremely promising could come here and study, and if they excel, they followed the law, they learned English or French, they could join the Canadian family,” Poilievre said.

He noted stories showing more than 20 international students living in the basement of one home in Brampton as an example of how off the rails the program has become the last few years. There were just over 350,00 foreign students in Canada when the Trudeau Liberals took over in 2015, but more than 1 million last year.

It’s not just the housing market that is also being impacted by the massive swell in immigration, both permanent and temporary. The most recent unemployment report from Statistics Canada showed unemployment growing from 6.4% in July to 6.6% in August, and a big part of that was population growth driven by immigration.

We added 96,400 people to the working age population, meaning those 15 and older. That’s a massive number in just one month, but it’s been going on like this for the last couple of years.

While there were some new jobs added, they were mostly part-time and didn’t keep pace with population growth. There were 44,000 full-time jobs lost last month, and we added 60,000 people to the unemployment rolls.

Statistics Canada has been warning about this for more than a year, noting time and again that job growth is not keeping pace with population growth.

“Given this pace of population growth, employment growth of approximately 50,000 per month is required for the employment rate to remain constant,” the agency warned a year ago.

We haven’t been hitting those numbers, and that’s why our unemployment rate has gone from 5% to 6.6%.

“That’s not even a question of whether you support or not immigration, it’s a question of whether you support mathematics,” Poilievre said when speaking about the housing crunch, but it applies to the impact on the job market as well.

Last April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that we were bringing in people faster than we could absorb them. Since he made those comments, we’ve added more than 500,000 people to Canada.

How does it make sense to keep immigration levels where they are when we are facing a housing shortage, a housing affordability crisis due to a lack of housing and growing unemployment.

It simply doesn’t and to carry on isn’t fair to anyone.

The Trudeau Liberals made this mess; they don’t seem to be in a hurry to fix it. Maybe it’s time to give Poilievre a turn.

Source: LILLEY: Poilievre promises to cap immigration, tie it to housing

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U.S. border patrol reports record number of encounters with migrants at the Canadian border

2024/09/13 Leave a comment

Quite a shift from most coming North to many going South:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection says it recorded a record-high number of encounters with migrants between border posts on the Canada-U.S. border between October 2023 and July of this year.

It’s a pattern experts say could be a problem for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government as the question of illegal immigration heats up in a close-fought U.S. election.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) records an “encounter” in its database when it comes across someone who is inadmissable to the U.S., or when border patrol officers find someone who has illegally crossed the border into the U.S. between border posts.

CBP reported encountering 19,498 migrants between border posts on the northern border between October 2023 and July 2024 — 15,612 of them in the Swanton Sector, which runs along the Quebec’s border with New York and Vermont.

While the numbers still pale in comparison with the U.S southern border, that’s more than twice as many as the 7,630 encountered between border posts during the same time period the previous year.

The year before that, CBP reported encountering only 2,238 migrants between border posts at the northern border.

U.S. news coverage of the surge in migration over its northern border intensified over the summer. In an interview with Fox News on Aug. 22, after complaining about illegal migration over the southern border, former president Donald Trump said the U.S. now had a problem on the northern border with migrants coming in from Canada.

Kelly Sundberg of Mount Royal University said the matter could become a political hot potato for the Trudeau government, regardless of who becomes the next president of the United States.

“I hate to admit it, but I think that Donald Trump is right on this, that there is a need to focus north,” said Sundberg, who worked for many years as an enforcement officer with the Canada Border Services Agency.

“But it’s not just the Trump campaign. The [Kamala Harris] campaign has indicated also that they have acknowledged that there’s concerns on the northern border.”

RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier said “there isn’t a day or night where there isn’t a crossing.” In Quebec alone, the RCMP intercepts an average of more than 100 people per week on the Canadian side of the border and Poirier said that’s only a portion of those headed for the U.S….

Source: U.S. border patrol reports record number of encounters with migrants at the Canadian border

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Europe’s largest economy just enacted border closures. Will others follow?

2024/09/13 Leave a comment

Of note, undermining Schengen:

The German government says it is cracking down on irregular migration and crime following recent extremist attacks, and plans to extend temporary border controls to all nine of its frontiers next week.

Last month, a deadly knife attack by a Syrian asylum-seeker in Soligen killed three people. The perpetrator claimed to be inspired by the Islamic State group. In June, a knife attack by an Afghan immigrant left a police officer dead and four other people wounded.

The border closures are set to last six months and are threatening to test European unity. Most of Germany’s neighbors are fellow members of the European Union, a 27-country bloc based on the principles of free trade and travel. And Germany – the EU’s economic motor in the heart of Europe – shares more borders with other countries than any other member state.

The Polish prime minister on Tuesday denounced the closures as “unacceptable” and Austria said it won’t accept migrants rejected by Germany….

Source: Europe’s largest economy just enacted border closures. Will others follow?

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Chris Selley: Canada’s ‘immigration consensus’ endures, despite Ottawa’s worst efforts

2024/09/12 Leave a comment

Correct interpretation IMO. However, the current government’s approach undermines public trust in government competence in immigration and other areas, even as some corrective action is taking place:

….Environics also inquired as to why the shift occurred. And it’s very obviously for one major reason: The housing crisis. In 2022, 15 per cent of respondents agreed that “immigrants drive up housing prices (and lead to) less housing for other Canadians”; in 2023, 38 per cent agreed.

And they’re right. Add demand for a scarce product and prices go up. Canada absolutely should be able to cope with current or higher levels of immigration, and indeed thrive off of it. We’re not exactly short on land or high on population density. But our politicians have never been more motivated to address housing scarcity, and the results have been utterly dismal. For heaven’s sake there were fewer home starts in June 2024 than in June 2022, according to CMHC data.

On the issues more typically associated with anti-immigration sentiment per se, the Environics data show no alarming spikes at all. Only four per cent of respondents cited “security risk” as a factor influencing their desire for less immigration. One-quarter said “immigrants are a drain on public finances (or) cost too much,” or are “bad for (the) economy (and) take jobs from other Canadians” — up from 23 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, which is hardly any change at all in the polling world.

In 2022 and 2023 alike, just 19 per cent of respondents told Environics there were “already too many people in Canada” — the strongest suggestion, I submit, that what we’re seeing here isn’t a backlash against immigration, let alone against individual immigrants and immigrant populations, but a call for some restraint until we get our crap together. Just nine per cent of respondents told Environics they thought immigrants make their community worse; 42 per cent said they make it better.

For 30 years, Environics has asked Canadians whether they think “there are too many immigrants coming into this country who are not adopting Canadian values” — something you hear often from people who could fairly be called anti-immigration. In 1993, 72 per cent of Canadians agreed with that proposition. Three decades later, amid this so-called “backlash,” the figure was 48 per cent.

Especially at a time when Canadians seem more angst-ridden about the country’s economic future than I can ever remember — potentially fertile soil for xenophobic sentiments, as history shows — these don’t strike me as alarming numbers at all. That’s especially true considering we’ve been admitting more immigrants per capita than at any time since the Hungarian Revolution in 1956, and watching tens of thousands of people traipse illegally across the Canada-U.S. border claiming asylum, and been lectured about racism and intolerance by a government that has basically conceded all of its opponents’ points on the immigration file.

Wanting less immigration isn’t inherently a “backlash” unless the optimal number of immigrants is infinite, which it obviously is not. We have enough problems to deal with without inventing new ones. The immigration consensus lives, despite the federal government’s worst efforts.

Source: Chris Selley: Canada’s ‘immigration consensus’ endures, despite Ottawa’s worst efforts

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How did a Toronto terror suspect enter Canada? Immigration minister offers first details

2024/09/12 Leave a comment

Note of realism in terms of border security but will still raise questions about vetting of international students and where extra vetting may be warranted:

…“I think our American partner would be highly disappointed to see elected officials firing their mouths off about and speculating about this case and its outcome,” Miller said. “We owe it to Canadians to keep them safe, to actually let the process unfold.”

Miller also said that borders cannot be made 100 per cent secure.

“No one can pretend and stand honestly in front of you and say that a well determined actor can’t come to this country, and that’s why we have the security apparatuses that we have in this country,” Miller said.

Source: How did a Toronto terror suspect enter Canada? Immigration minister offers first details

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Angus-Reid – Temporary Foreign Workers: Canadians support reduced program; few want workers to have path to citizenship

2024/09/11 Leave a comment

Although not covered in the summary, the data tables highlight that non-white are more critical than white (I would have preferred an immigrant, born in Canada comparisons):

Part One: Views of Temporary Foreign Workers program

  • Canadians say they hear more negative things than positive ones
  • Most say number of workers too high
  • Plurality say program should continue with changes

Part Two: Who benefits and loses from TFW program

  • Most see a boon for business at the cost of labour market and housing
  • Liberal supporters most positive, cross-partisan concern about impact on housing

Part Three: Concerns about treatment of workers, but little support for citizenship

  • Majority say businesses that can’t afford to pay wages Canadians will take should close
  • Many also say Canadians don’t want to do the jobs TFWs perform
  • Majority say businesses treat TFWs unfairly; half say government exploits them
  • Citizenship for TFWs not supported by many

Source: Temporary Foreign Workers: Canadians support reduced program; few want workers to have path to citizenship

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Tao | Canada is scapegoating migrants. Believe us, migrants are feeling it

2024/09/10 Leave a comment

It is more anti impact of immigration numbers than anti immigration per se, but not surprising that some perceive it that way with the resulting impact on mental health:

…We seem to have forgotten, over the course of Canadian history, the separation of loved ones by explicit and implicit race-based laws. Today’s social media algorithms shield us from a history replete with narratives of turning away boats and refoulement to torture and punishment and the destruction of migrant businesses and communities. Less viscerally, exclusionary bars were placed on individuals that had the direct impact of separating families, still today healing from the trauma of generations past. 

This collective amnesia, with an election looming and amidst shifting global political tides, has seemingly replaced the amnesty we were initially proposing for those who had served as guardian angels in times of need. In January, the federal government set an intake cap on international student permit applications, limiting the number of approvals to 360,000, down 35 per cent from 2023. Just last week, the government announced it will be reducing the number of temporary foreign workers and that it is considering the number of permanent residents Canada accepts each year. Surgery is indeed being done with a hammer, and with not enough consultation of those migrants that the changes impact.

The “low skilled” workers, who on one hand have been found to work in slavelike conditions and on the other hand are being told they are taking Canadian jobs and homes with that slavelike salary, have received a clear message of: “we don’t need you anymore.” 

As the dialogue shifts more toward displacement and deportation, and as descendents of migrants and those who work in migrant spaces, we want to highlight the harmful impacts that this culture of scapegoating, meme-ing, and generally, mobbing is having on the mental health of migrants.  

We have seen firsthand the mental health impacts that Canada’s move toward anti-immigration policy and sentiment is having on individuals and families, especially our clients, within the context of this dialogue where immigrants are cited as the source of many societal woes. …

Will Tao is a Canadian Immigration and Refugee Lawyer (J.D., LLM Student) and the son of first-generation immigrants to Canada. Karina Juma is an articling student (J.D./MA) and daughter of first generation immigrants to Canada.

Source: Opinion | Canada is scapegoating migrants. Believe us, migrants are feeling it

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Tens of thousands of international students who spent years finding a pathway to permanent residency are out of options

2024/09/10 Leave a comment

Major and inhumane policy failure, whipsawing international students between government encouraged expectations and subsequent government imposed reality:

…That same year, a series of policy reversals and changes began to take place. Ottawa stopped granting extensions to PGWPs and noted that granting permanent residency to temporary residents in bulk was a one-time emergency pandemic measure. The government also abruptly changed its criteria for permanent resident (PR) selection in the Express Entry system – a score-based application process that determines eligibility for permanent residency. It began prioritizing French speakers and people with job experience in health care, skilled trades, agriculture, transportation and STEM – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – fields as opposed to those with Canadian-specific education and experience.

“Nobody knows the probability of a successful permanent residency transition now because the PR selection system has become highly non-transparent and unpredictable,” explained Mikal Skuterud, an economist at the University of Waterloo. “What we do know is that the government is not going to grant extensions to expiring visas so there will now be many, many people in situations where they either remain in Canada undocumented or leave.”

There is no precise data that reflect exactly how many foreign graduates currently holding PGWPs will see their visas expire this year. The Naujawan Support Network – a labour advocacy organization based in Brampton, Ont. – estimates that approximately 70,000 PGWP holders will not obtain permanent residency before their visas expire and be forced to leave Canada in 2024 and 2025.

Prof. Skuterud estimates that approximately 131,000 permits could expire this year – if one were to assume that most PGWPs issued had three-year durations. But he noted that an exact figure was tough to determine….

Source: Tens of thousands of international students who spent years finding a pathway to permanent residency are out of options

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