How AI is helping Canada keep some people out of the country. And why there are those who say it’s a problem

2023/06/05 Leave a comment

Well, that’s what filtering, whether human or AI-based does. With high levels, AI needed to maintain applicant service. Yes, more transparency and accountability needed, but this applies to both human and artificial intelligence and decision-making:

Artificial intelligence is helping authorities keep some people out of Canada.

“Project Quantum,” as it’s been dubbed, is a largely unknown AI-assisted pilot project that’s been undertaken by the Canada Border Services Agency.

It essentially screens air travellers before they take off for Canada. In thousands of cases in recent years, it has led the CBSA to recommend a traveller be stopped before even getting on their flight.

Authorities say the program is meant to flag people who could be a threat to this country.

But just who the government is stopping at international airports — and the criteria used to select them — isn’t clear. That has led critics to question how we know the AI-assisted program is targeting the right people, and that discrimination isn’t somehow baked into its process.

Language on the CBSA’s website also says the program is meant to address the issue of irregular migration. Some are concerned it’s having the effect of making asylum — already restricted under Canada’s Safe Third Country Agreement with the U.S.— even harder to gain in this country.

Officials say the pre-departure risk-assessment matches passengers’ personal information from commercial air carriers with pre-established indicators of risk identification models that are designed by border officials.

The risk identification models have been developed, they say, based on passenger information sent from commercial carriers to CBSA.

Between its inception in 2019 and the end of last year, Project Quantum referred 13,863 travellers to its overseas liaison officers for further assessments. In total, CBSA recommended to air carriers that they refuse boarding 6,182 travellers on flights to Canada.

The program comes against the backdrop of increasing constraints on irregular migration to Canada. Earlier this year, Ottawa and Washington expanded a bilateral agreement to deny foreign nationals access to asylum across the entire Canada-U.S. border — not just at the official ports of entry. As a result, the number of irregular migrants to Canada has plummeted.

Given Canada’s unique geography and how it is buffered by the U.S., the new interdiction tool against air travellers further limits asylum seekers’ options.

“The objective of this strategy is to push the border out as far as possible, ideally outside of Canada, to where a person lives,” contends University of New Brunswick law professor Benjamin Perryman, who represents two Hungarian Roma families in fighting the CBSA cancellation of their electronic travel authorizations.

“This new technology comes with substantial risks of human rights violations. We’ve seen that in other areas. When we don’t have transparency and oversight in place, it raises some pretty big concerns.”

The CBSA, established in 2003 as the immigration enforcement arm, is the only public safety department without an outside civilian oversight body, despite the border officers’ power to carry firearms, arrest and detain — authorities similar to those of police officers.

Since being elected in 2015, the Liberal government has promised to establish a watchdog for the CBSA, but a bill has yet to be passed to set up such an infrastructure for accountability.

In an email to the Star, CBSA spokesperson Jacqueline Roby said the pilot program seeks to “detect illicit migration concerns” for air travellers at the earliest point.

“It is a targeting approach, i.e. an operational practice, that supports and guides the CBSA officers to identify high-risk and potential illegal activity,” Roby explained.

Those activities, she added, include terrorism or terror-related crimes, human-smuggling or trafficking and other serious transnational crimes.

However, advocates are concerned that the risk indicators of these models could be rife with unintended biases and that they are being used to detect and interdict undesirable travellers, including prospective asylum seekers in search of protection in Canada.

‘Based on quantum referral’

Gabor Lukacs, founder and president of Air Passenger Rights, an advocacy group for travellers, says there’s been very little public information about the pilot program. He only came across Project Quantum through a recent court case involving two Roma travellers who were refused boarding an Air Transat flight in London.

Immigration documents showed the couple were flagged “based on quantum referral.”

The two were to visit a family member in Canada, who arrived previously and sought asylum and who is now a permanent resident. Both travellers had their valid electronic travel authorization — an entry requirement for visa-exempt visitors — cancelled as a result.

The case raises questions, in Lukacs view, of whether an ethnic name, such as the Roma’s, or information about connections to a former refugee in Canada, were among the indicators used by the program to flag passengers. The CBSA declined to answer questions about these concerns, saying to do so could compromise the program’s integrity.

“The problem with AI is it has very high potential of unintended racial and ethnic biases. It’s far from clear to me if there’s a proper distinction in the training of this software between refugee claimants and criminals,” he noted.

Lukacs’s concern is partly based on a written presentation in 2017 by the immigration department about the application of advanced and predictive analytics to identify patterns that enable prediction of future behaviours, and how combinations of applicant characteristics correlate with application approvals, refusals and frauds.

“In the future, we aim to predict undesirable behaviours (e.g. criminality or refugee claims),” said the document released in response to an access-to-information request by Perryman.

The border agency would not say whether potential refugees are flagged, but it said Project Quantum is part of its National Targeting Program, which identifies people and goods bound for Canada that may pose a threat to the country’s security and safety.

Assisted by human intelligence, it uses automated advance information sources from carriers and importers to identify those risks.

The number of quantum referrals for assessments has grown with the number of “flights” tested with the modelling — from 18 in 2019 to 32 by February 2022. The border agency would not say if the “flight” refers to route or participating air carrier, but said the pilot project is “ongoing.”

The National Targeting Centre will alert the relevant CBSA liaison officer abroad to assess the referral if a traveller matches the criteria set out in the risk identification models. The officer, if warranted, engages with the air carrier and/or traveller before making a “board” or “no-board” recommendation.

Opened in Ottawa 2012, the targeting centre, among other responsibilities, runs the liaison officer network, which started with more than 60 officers in 40 countries.

Roby declined to reveal how the flights or routes were selected, in what regions the modelling assessment was deployed or what indicators travellers were measured against, saying that “would compromise the integrity of the program.”

Critics call the lack of information and transparency troubling, given the complaints of alleged ethnic profiling against CBSA in recent years, including an ongoing court case by a Hungarian couple, who were denied boarding to visit family members who were former refugees.

“If CBSA considers association with refugees an indicator of the person allegedly intending to do something nefarious like overstaying or worse, that’s in and of itself a problem,” said Lukacs.

“The bigger issue is what data sets and indicators have been used for teaching and training the algorithms to decide who to flag.”

Roby of the CBSA says the agency takes these concerns seriously in developing a new targeting tool to ensure compliance with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

“The Agency works to eliminate any systemic racism or unconscious bias in its operations, its work and policies, which includes addressing instances where racialized Canadians and newcomers have faced additional barriers, and ensuring that minority communities are not subject to unfair treatment,” she said.

Officials must follow strict guidelines to protect the privacy of passengers and crew members and the data is stored in a secure system accessible only by authorized personnel, she added. The use of this data is subject to an audit process and users are liable for any misuse.

However, Project Quantum is not governed by the federal oversight required under the directive on automated decision-making.

The Treasury Board’s “Algorithmic Impact Assessment (AIA) would not apply here. The CBSA relies on the knowledge, training, expertise, and experience of border officers to make the final determination on what or who should be targeted,” Roby explained in an email.

“The CBSA provides advice to an air carrier, however, it is then up to the air carrier to decide whether or not to follow the recommendation.”

The initiative also raises legal questions about Canadian officials’ authority to engage in extraterritorial enforcement and their compliance with the Charter of Rights and international human rights law, said Perryman.

Perryman said he’s open to claims by law enforcement that certain aspects of the CBSA investigation techniques need to be kept confidential to be effective but said there needs to be sufficient transparency and oversight.

“This claim of racial profiling as a legitimate technique is something that we’ve seen police rely on initially in Canada. And when the full spectrum of that racial profiling became public, we decided as a society that it was not a legitimate law enforcement tool,” he said.

“We’ve taken steps to end that type of racial profiling domestically. I’m not completely hostile to that argument, but I think it’s one that has to be approached with some degree of scrutiny and care.”

The border agency said travellers who are refused boarding may file a complaint in writing using the CBSA web form or by mail to its recourse directorate.

Source: How AI is helping Canada keep some people out of the country. And why there are those who say it’s a problem

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The Economist: A new wave of mass migration has begun

2023/06/05 Leave a comment

In contrast to their earlier long-term prognosis (with a shout-out to Newfoundland and Labrador):

Last year 1.2m people moved to Britain—almost certainly the most ever. Net migration (ie, immigrants minus emigrants) to Australia is twice the rate before covid-19. Spain’s equivalent figure recently hit an all-time high. Nearly 1.4m people on net are expected to move to America this year, one-third more than before the pandemic. In 2022 net migration to Canada was more than double the previous record and in Germany it was even higher than during the “migration crisis” of 2015. Listen to this story.

The rich world is in the middle of an immigration boom, with its foreign-born population rising faster than at any point in history (see chart 1). What does this mean for the global economy? 

Not long ago it seemed as if many wealthy countries had turned decisively against mass migration. In 2016 Britons voted for Brexit and then Americans for Donald Trump, political projects with strong anti-migrant streaks. In the global wave of populism that followed, politicians from Australia to Hungary promised to crack down on migration. Then covid closed borders. Migration came to a standstill, or even went into reverse, as people decided to return home. Between 2019 and 2021 the populations of Kuwait and Singapore, countries that typically receive lots of migrants, fell by 4%. In 2021 the number of emigrants from Australia exceeded the number of immigrants to the country for the first time since the 1940s.

The surge in migration has brought back a sense of normality to some places. Singapore’s foreign workforce recently returned to its pre-pandemic level. In other places it feels like a drastic change. Consider Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada’s second-smallest province by population. Long home to people of Irish-Catholic descent—with accents to match—net migration to the province is running at more than 20 times the pre-pandemic norm. St John’s, the capital, feels more like Toronto every time you visit. Heart’s Delight, a small rural settlement, now has a Ukrainian bakery, Borsch. The provincial government is setting up an office in Bangalore to help recruit nurses. 

The new arrivals in Newfoundland are a microcosm of those elsewhere in the rich world. Many hundreds of Ukrainians have arrived on the island—a tiny share of the millions who have left the country since Russia invaded. Indians and Nigerians also appear to be on the move in large numbers. Many speak English. And many already have family connections in richer countries, in particular Britain and Canada. 

Some of the surge in migration is because people are making up for lost time. Many migrants acquired visas in 2020 or 2021, but only made the trip once covid restrictions loosened. Yet the rich world’s foreign-born population—at well over 100m—is now above its pre-crisis trend, suggesting something else is going on. 

The nature of the post-pandemic economy is a big part of the explanation. Unemployment in the rich world, at 4.8%, has not been so low in decades. Bosses are desperate for staff, with vacancies near an all-time high. People from abroad thus have good reason to travel. Currency movements may be another factor. A British pound buys more than 100 Indian rupees, compared with 90 in 2019. Since the beginning of 2021 the average emerging-market currency has depreciated by about 4% against the dollar. This enables migrants to send more money home than before. 

Many governments are also trying to attract more people. Canada has a target to welcome 1.5m new residents in 2023-25. Germany and India recently signed an agreement to allow more Indians to work and study in Germany. Australia is increasing the time period some students can work for after graduating from two to four years. Britain has welcomed Hong Kongers fleeing Chinese oppression—well over 100,000 have arrived. Many countries have made it easy for Ukrainians to enter. Even those countries hitherto hostile to migration, including Japan and South Korea, are now looking more favourably on outsiders as they seek to counteract the impact of ageing populations.

Economies that welcome lots of migrants tend to benefit in the long run. Just look at America. Foreign folk bring new ideas with them. In America immigrants are about 80% likelier than native-born folk to found a firm, according to a recent paper by Pierre Azoulay of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues. Research suggests that migrants help to build trading and investment links between their home country and the receiving one. A slug of young workers also helps generate more tax revenue. 

Some economists hope that the wave of migration will have more immediate benefits. “High immigration is helpful for the Fed as it tries to cool down the labour market and slow down inflation,” says Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management, an asset manager, expressing a common view. Such arguments may be a little too optimistic. Having more people does increase the supply of labour, which, all else being equal, reduces wage growth. But the effect is pretty small. There is little sign that the countries receiving the most migrants have the loosest labour markets. In Canada, for instance, pay is still rising by about 5% year on year (see chart 2). 

Your people shall be my people

Migrants also lift demand for goods and services, which can raise inflation. In Britain new arrivals appear to be pushing up rents in London, which already had a constrained supply of housing. A similar effect is apparent in Australia. Estimates by Goldman Sachs, a bank, imply that Australia’s current annualised net migration rate of 500,000 people is raising rents by around 5%. Higher rents feed into a higher overall consumer-price index. Demand from migrants may also explain why, despite higher mortgage rates, house prices in many rich countries have not fallen by much. 

Over the next year or so migration may come down a bit. The post-pandemic “catch-up” will end; rich-world labour markets are slowly loosening. In the very long term, a global slump in fertility rates means there may be a shortage of migrants. Yet there is reason to believe that high levels of new arrivals will remain raised for some time. More welcoming government policy is one factor. And migration today begets migration tomorrow, as new arrivals bring over children and partners. Before long the rich world’s anti-immigrant turn of the late 2010s will seem like an aberration. 

Source: A new wave of mass migration has begun

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Globe editorial: Canada’s much-touted labour shortage is mostly a mirage

2023/06/03 Leave a comment

Good to see some serious (and belated) questioning by the Globe. Unlikely that the government will change its approach of appeasing business and other interests rather than focussing on medium- and longer-term impacts on productivity:

No one takes orders at the Burger King in the rest stop off of Ontario’s Highway 401 near Port Hope. Instead, there’s a large touch screen that customers use to select and pay for their Whoppers and fries.

…

Source: Canada’s much-touted labour shortage is mostly a mirage

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Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

2023/06/03 Leave a comment

Useful reminder that expanded immigration is unlikely to be a viable long-term strategy:

In the roughly 250 years since the Industrial Revolution the world’s population, like its wealth, has exploded. Before the end of this century, however, the number of people on the planet could shrink for the first time since the Black Death. The root cause is not a surge in deaths, but a slump in births. Across much of the world the fertility rate, the average number of births per woman, is collapsing. Although the trend may be familiar, its extent and its consequences are not. Even as artificial intelligence (ai) leads to surging optimism in some quarters, the baby bust hangs over the future of the world economy.Listen to this story.

In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling. The largest 15 countries by gdp all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes America and much of the rich world, but also China and India, neither of which is rich but which together account for more than a third of the global population.

The result is that in much of the world the patter of tiny feet is being drowned out by the clatter of walking sticks. The prime examples of ageing countries are no longer just Japan and Italy but also include Brazil, Mexico and Thailand. By 2030 more than half the inhabitants of East and South-East Asia will be over 40. As the old die and are not fully replaced, populations are likely to shrink. Outside Africa, the world’s population is forecast to peak in the 2050s and end the century smaller than it is today. Even in Africa, the fertility rate is falling fast.

Whatever some environmentalists say, a shrinking population creates problems. The world is not close to full and the economic difficulties resulting from fewer young people are many. The obvious one is that it is getting harder to support the world’s pensioners. Retired folk draw on the output of the working-aged, either through the state, which levies taxes on workers to pay public pensions, or by cashing in savings to buy goods and services or because relatives provide care unpaid. But whereas the rich world currently has around three people between 20 and 64 years old for everyone over 65, by 2050 it will have less than two. The implications are higher taxes, later retirements, lower real returns for savers and, possibly, government budget crises. 

Low ratios of workers to pensioners are only one problem stemming from collapsing fertility. As we explain this week, younger people have more of what psychologists call “fluid intelligence”, the ability to think creatively so as to solve problems in entirely new ways . 

This youthful dynamism complements the accumulated knowledge of older workers. It also brings change. Patents filed by the youngest inventors are much more likely to cover breakthrough innovations. Older countries—and, it turns out, their young people—are less enterprising and less comfortable taking risks. Elderly electorates ossify politics, too. Because the old benefit less than the young when economies grow, they have proved less keen on pro-growth policies, especially housebuilding. Creative destruction is likely to be rarer in ageing societies, suppressing productivity growth in ways that compound into an enormous missed opportunity. 

All things considered, it is tempting to cast low fertility rates as a crisis to be solved. Many of its underlying causes, though, are in themselves welcome. As people have become richer they have tended to have fewer children. Today they face different trade-offs between work and family, and these are mostly better ones. The populist conservatives who claim low fertility is a sign of society’s failure and call for a return to traditional family values are wrong. More choice is a good thing, and no one owes it to others to bring up children. 

Liberals’ impulse to encourage more immigration is more noble. But it, too, is a misdiagnosis. Immigration in the rich world today is at a record high, helping individual countries tackle worker shortages. But the global nature of the fertility slump means that, by the middle of the century, the world is likely to face a dearth of young educated workers unless something changes.

What might that be? People often tell pollsters they want more children than they have. This gap between aspiration and reality could be in part because would-be parents—who, in effect, subsidise future childless pensioners—cannot afford to have more children, or because of other policy failures, such as housing shortages or inadequate fertility treatment. Yet even if these are fixed, economic development is still likely to lead to a fall in fertility below the replacement rate. Pro-family policies have a disappointing record. Singapore offers lavish grants, tax rebates and child-care subsidies—but has a fertility rate of 1.0. 

Unleashing the potential of the world’s poor would ease the shortage of educated young workers without more births. Two-thirds of Chinese children live in the countryside and attend mostly dreadful schools; the same fraction of 25- to 34-year-olds in India have not completed upper secondary education. Africa’s pool of young people will continue to grow for decades. Boosting their skills is desirable in itself, and might also cast more young migrants as innovators in otherwise-stagnant economies. Yet encouraging development is hard—and the sooner places get rich, the sooner they get old. 

Eventually, therefore, the world will have to make do with fewer youngsters—and perhaps with a shrinking population. With that in mind, recent advances in ai could not have come at a better time. An über-productive ai-infused economy might find it easy to support a greater number of retired people. Eventually ai may be able to generate ideas by itself, reducing the need for human intelligence. Combined with robotics, ai may also make caring for the elderly less labour-intensive. Such innovations will certainly be in high demand.

If technology does allow humanity to overcome the baby bust, it will fit the historical pattern. Unexpected productivity advances meant that demographic time-bombs, such as the mass starvation predicted by Thomas Malthus in the 18th century, failed to detonate. Fewer babies means less human genius. But that might be a problem human genius can fix. 

Source: Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences

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Connelly: Even high-wage temporary foreign workers are at risk of exploitation

2023/06/03 Leave a comment

Haven’t seen much written one the higher-wage Temporary Foreign Workers or the kind of anecdotes and studies that we see on agricultural and other lower-wage workers.

So the extent to which this is more theoretical (same general points apply to all TFWs), or a real issue is unclear (and Connelly doesn’t indicate that any surveys or other assessment of on-the-ground reality was undertaken which may have been included in her book):

When we think of temporary foreign workers, we usually think of agricultural workers and nannies: vulnerable workers at risk of exploitation. But not every temporary foreign worker does this kind of work. What about software engineers, accountants, and technicians? Unfortunately, they are also at risk.

Many Canadians assume that high-wage temporary foreign workers are less vulnerable because they have more resources at their disposal. But their high incomes and education levels are not enough to protect them.

Temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream are vulnerable to exploitation because they have closed work permits. With only a few exceptions, they are only allowed to work for the company that hired them. Even when they are aware of their employment rights, they are often reluctant to do anything that they believe could jeopardize their employment, such as complaining to their boss, their HR department, or the government. Most high-wage temporary foreign workers are hoping to apply for permanent residency through a provincial nominee program, and they are concerned that any complaints will be held against them. And even though many high-wage temporary foreign workers eventually become permanent residents, they still have closed work permits while they navigate this process. And in the meantime, they may endure a lot.

High-wage temporary foreign workers are lucrative targets. Because their wages are relatively high, unscrupulous companies have a financial incentive to pay them less than their contracted wage. For example, instead of paying them the agreed-upon $30 per hour, a company may decide to only pay them only $27 per hour: a 10 per cent discrepancy. This pay cut of course violates the temporary foreign worker guidelines, which stipulate that all temporary foreign workers must be paid the agreed-upon wage for the duration of their contracts. They also must be paid at least the local median wage for their occupation.

Three dollars in wage theft may not sound like much, but it adds up. If that employee works 40 hours per week, this represents a savings to the employer of about $6,240 per year, per employee.

Because high-wage workers are so qualified, they are frequently asked to perform extra tasks that are not in their contracts. For example, they may be asked to manage a team or take on more important or complicated responsibilities with less supervision. Many temporary foreign workers are overqualified for their positions, so some companies use this as an opportunity to require them to do extra work without compensation, even though this violates the rules of the temporary foreign worker program.

Companies that have difficulty retaining Canadians because of poor management skills may turn to temporary foreign workers specifically to lower rates of staff turnover. While Canadians and foreign workers recruited through the International Mobility Program (e.g., from a country that has a free trade agreement with Canada) can quit, high-wage temporary foreign workers, who might be doing the exact same job, do not have the same options. In addition to wage theft and unrealistic performance expectations, high-wage temporary foreign workers frequently have to deal with abusive supervisors. 

The solution is to harmonize the high-wage temporary foreign worker program with the International Mobility Program to ensure that these workers all have the same rights. That is, high-wage temporary foreign workers would receive open work permits that would enable them to change employers more easily. A further advantage of open permits is that companies could then promote high-wage temporary foreign workers, or move them to where they are needed.

One could argue that open permits would be inconvenient for employers, because mistreated high-wage temporary foreign workers may quit if their work permits do not force them to stay with their employer. However, employers could adopt the same management strategies that they use to prevent their Canadian or International Mobility Program employees from quitting: careful recruitment, fair treatment, and reasonable wages.

In discussions about temporary foreign workers, those in the high-wage stream are often overlooked. There are not so many of them: only 45,867 were approved to come to Canada in 2022. But as Canadian companies address ongoing labour market challenges, more are likely to be hired. High-wage temporary foreign workers are an important part of the Canadian workforce, and they need the same protections as Canadians.

Catherine Connelly is a Canada Research Chair in organizational behaviour at the DeGroote School of Business at McMaster University, and the author of Enduring Work: Experiences with Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program, published by McGill-Queen’s University Press.

Source: Even high-wage temporary foreign workers are at risk of exploitation

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Meggs: Au-delà de l’Initiative du siècle

2023/06/02 Leave a comment

Good commentary on how the steep rise in temporary residents, particularly students, has effectively resulted in Canada and Quebec no longer managing levels and pace of immigration, with a sharper disconnect between Quebec, given relatively lower permanent residency levels, than in the rest of Canada:

On a tendance à interpréter la hausse comme étant une politique délibérée et idéologique, mais il y a aussi le concours de circonstances qui a fait en sorte que les propositions de l’Initiative du siècle, alignées certes avec le discours d’ouverture et de diversité du Parti libéral du Canada, sont tombées à un moment où Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada (IRCC) commençait à perdre le contrôle sur l’immigration canadienne. 

C’était inévitable. Le Canada ne pouvait augmenter sans limites son immigration temporaire, invitant en particulier les étudiantes et étudiants étrangers à venir et à rester, sans augmenter ses seuils d’immigration permanente.

Politiquement, il ne peut renvoyer les personnes diplômées au pays et ayant contribué à l’économie canadienne pendant plusieurs années. D’où les programmes spéciaux récents et annoncés de régularisation des personnes à statut temporaire, ainsi que des personnes non documentées, un autre phénomène qui augmente avec l’immigration temporaire. 

Le gouvernement de la CAQ affectionne plutôt le Programme de travailleurs étrangers temporaires (PTET)⁠1. Au Canada, au 31 décembre 2022, les titulaires de permis de ce programme représentaient 7,5 % de l’ensemble des titulaires de permis des trois programmes d’immigration temporaire. Au Québec, ils en constituaient 17,5 %. Comme le Canada, le Québec augmente le nombre de travailleurs temporaires, mais, contrairement au Canada, le Québec refuse d’augmenter ses seuils d’immigration permanente. 

Des résultats chaotiques

Ultimement, les résultats sont chaotiques et marqués par l’improvisation : 

– les délais de traitement des demandes de certificat de sélection du Québec (CSQ) s’étirent pour l’ensemble des catégories permanentes – économique, familiale et humanitaire. Ce document est délivré par le ministère de l’Immigration, de la Francisation et de l’Intégration (MIFI) et est préalable à la résidence permanente au Québec ; 

– le Québec ralentit sa sélection pour ne pas dépasser les seuils permanents planifiés ; 

– IRCC ralentit aussi la délivrance des visas de résidence permanente pour les détenteurs du CSQ pour ne pas dépasser les seuils établis par le Québec ; 

– de plus en plus de personnes immigrantes francophones⁠2 – temporaires au Québec et permanentes de l’étranger – décident de faire leur demande de résidence permanente dans une autre province. (Un cadeau au fédéral qui veut augmenter l’immigration francophone hors Québec.)

Jetant la responsabilité des délais de traitement des demandes de résidence permanente sur IRCC et la pandémie, Jean Boulet, ancien ministre du MIFI, a négocié avec le fédéral un permis de travail temporaire ouvert dans le cadre du Programme de mobilité internationale. On l’appelle le PMI+. Ce permis, aussi délivré par le fédéral, est offert aux personnes avec un CSQ en attente de leur résidence permanente. Il permet à celles déjà au Québec de continuer à travailler ici et à celles à l’étranger de venir s’établir en sol québécois. 

Mais si le Québec refuse d’augmenter ses seuils d’immigration permanente, ses gens vont demeurer avec un statut temporaire très longtemps.

Le prochain phénomène qu’on risque de voir sera celui des personnes francophones sélectionnées par le Québec et travaillant au Québec avec un permis PMI+ qui décident de déménager et de faire une nouvelle demande de résidence permanente dans une autre province parce qu’elles se lassent de l’attente et qu’elles veulent pouvoir planifier leurs vies. 

Le gouvernement a beau promettre de sélectionner 100 % d’immigration francophone, les délais pour obtenir la résidence permanente font perdre au Québec des personnes immigrantes francophones au profit d’autres provinces ou territoires. Où est la logique ? Si ces personnes souhaitent s’établir au Québec, elles peuvent y venir à la suite de leur admission au Canada, car il n’y a pas d’obstacles à la mobilité des résidents permanents. Mais cela a pour effet de laisser au fédéral et aux autres provinces la sélection. 

Les consultations organisées par le MIFI qui auront lieu dans les prochains mois établiront les paramètres de l’immigration au Québec pour au moins trois ans sans pour autant fournir une vision d’avenir. Ce n’est pas de la planification, mais plutôt de la gestion réactive dont les résultats continueront d’être chaotiques. Il ne suffit pas de dire où l’on ne veut pas aller en dénonçant l’Initiative du siècle. Il s’agit de répondre à une autre question : où va-t-on, et surtout, où veut-on aller ? 

Il est crucial que le gouvernement soit entièrement transparent sur l’ensemble des enjeux, tant envers la population d’accueil sur la façon dont il propose de gérer le nombre et le rythme des arrivées qu’envers les personnes qui arrivent sur les dures réalités de leur statut. La question de l’immigration temporaire sans limites présente trop d’enjeux négatifs pour être exclue du débat. L’objectif est un retour à un système d’immigration permanent fonctionnel. 

Source: Au-delà de l’Initiative du siècle

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Les tests de français «made in France» seront adaptés au contexte québécois

2023/06/02 Leave a comment

Following the backlash:

La ministre de l’Immigration, Christine Fréchette, convient qu’il faut « mieux adapter » au contexte québécois les tests de français pour les immigrants, mais elle ne compte pas pour autant exiger que ces examens soient conçus au Québec.

« Il faudrait à tout le moins que les tests soient mieux adaptés au contexte québécois. Il y a des références au Québec qui ont déjà été introduites dans plusieurs des tests standardisés. On veut que ça se poursuive, comme travail », a déclaré la ministre mercredi, lors de la période des questions.

Elle était interrogée par la députée Ruba Ghazal, de Québec solidaire, au sujet d’un dossier du Devoir qui révèle les écueils des tests pour l’immigration. Ceux-ci sont conçus en France et sont truffés de références européennes.

La ministre Fréchette a refusé de s’engager à confier la production des tests à une organisation québécoise, comme le lui suggérait Mme Ghazal. « On va continuer à procéder à ces analyses-là jusqu’à ce qu’elles soient complètes, et on verra quelles sont les pistes d’action », a-t-elle affirmé.

« Bonne chance de demander à des Français d’adapter le test à notre réalité québécoise avec notre accent québécois. J’ai hâte de voir ça », a répondu avec ironie sa collègue solidaire.

Des changements demandés

En matinée, les partis d’opposition ont pressé Québec de faire mieux. « Il est temps que ces tests-là soient revus, a lancé André Fortin. Je pense qu’on est capables de fournir [aux immigrants] un bien meilleur accueil et de leur présenter notre langue sous un bien différent angle. »

« Franchement, les tests de français pour les immigrants devraient être faits au Québec, a lâché Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, de Québec solidaire. Pour bien mesurer l’intégration d’un immigrant au français québécois, il faut avoir des outils québécois. François Legault se présente comme le chevalier du français. Ça fait dur, là, d’utiliser des tests faits en France. »

Le député péquiste Pascal Bérubé a déclaré que les tests devraient être « adaptés à notre réalité ». « Et on a une expertise pour ça », a-t-il précisé.

Les deux instances françaises, dont France Éducation international, assurent que les tests ont déjà été adaptés. La Chambre de commerce et d’industrie de Paris Île-de-France, qui en fait passer deux sur huit, affirme avoir reçu « une demande forte de la part du ministère de l’Immigration, de la Francisation et de l’Intégration d’inclure davantage de référents culturels québécois ». Elle avance aussi que l’accent québécois « est présent à 35 % environ dans l’épreuve de compréhension orale ».

Le Devoir a cependant constaté, en allant passer le test, que cette proportion est nettement surévaluée : seuls quatre enregistrements sur plus d’une quarantaine présentent un accent québécois. Ces enregistrements sonores permettent aux participants de répondre à 51 questions.

Source: Les tests de français «made in France» seront adaptés au contexte québécois

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Canada launches new immigration program to fill ‘in-demand’

2023/06/02 Leave a comment

As expected:

Immigration applicants with experience in any of five sectors could be selected for permanent residence through a new system designed to better align newcomers with Canada’s labour market needs.

On Wednesday, Immigration Minister Sean Fraser launched the highly anticipated “category-based selection” — better known as the “targeted draw” of skilled immigrants — which was first announced last June.

In additional to focusing on picking those with strong French language proficiency, the new tool will target those in the talent pool with a background in five key occupational sectors:

  • Health care;
  • Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) professions;
  • Trades, such as carpenters, plumbers and contractors;
  • Transport; and
  • Agriculture and agri-food.

“Everywhere I go, I’ve heard loud and clear from employers across the country who are experiencing chronic labour shortages. These changes to the Express Entry system will ensure that they have the skilled workers they need to grow and succeed,” Fraser said in a news release.

“We can also grow our economy and help businesses with labour shortages while also increasing the number of French-proficient candidates to help ensure the vitality of French-speaking communities. Put simply, Canada’s immigration system has never been more responsive to the country’s social or economic needs.”

The job categories have been determined following public consultations, as well as a review of labour market needs. A complete list of eligible jobs for the new categories is available on the immigration department website.

Currently, applicants for skilled immigration programs enter into the Express Entry pool, where they are given points and ranked based on attributes such as age, educational achievements, language proficiency, work experience and availability of a job offer.

Regular draws are conducted to invite those with the highest scores to apply for permanent residence. However, the system doesn’t allow the immigration department to overrule the ranking system and pick a candidate in an “in-demand” profession if the person’s score doesn’t meet the thresholds of those draws.

According to Statistics Canada, the number of job vacancies in the fourth quarter of 2022 decreased by 78,600 or 8.2 per cent to 876,300, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline.

The number of unfilled jobs fell in 16 of 20 broad industrial sectors, particularly in accommodation and food services (-21,400) and administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (-15,800).

Job vacancies also fell in seven of 10 broad occupational groups, including trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (-22,200) and sales and service occupations (-20,100).

There were 147,300 job vacancies in health occupations in the fourth quarter, little changed from the record high reached in the third quarter.

Fraser said further details on the timing of invitations for individual categories and how to apply will be announced in the coming weeks.

Source: Canada launches new immigration program to fill ‘in-demand’ jobsCanada launches new immigration program to fill ‘in-demand’ jobs

And criticism from labour economists:

MIKAL SKUTERUD, the director of the Canadian Labour Economics Forum, took issue with a minister meddling in a system for grading talent that is supposed to be apolitical. He wrote that he was concerned the immigration system will fall unduly under the influence of business lobbyists.

“If the objective of the policy is to target skilled candidates with work experience in the sectors listed in the news release, why were these applicants unable to satisfy the selection criteria of the existing Express Entry system?” he wrote to PTM. 

“The only possible answer I can think of is that this reform seeks to bypass the [Comprehensive Ranking System] which, in effect, means providing eased pathways to PR status for immigrants with lower skill levels and lower expected earnings.”

The Comprehensive Ranking System is the existing method by which the government scores the workforce potential of prospective economic immigrants.

Bringing in immigrants who earn less than would otherwise be the case could inhibit GDP per capita and standard of living growth, wrote Skuterud. 

CHRISTOPHER WORSWICK, who teaches the economics of immigration at Carleton University, wrote: 

“I am generally not in favour of this novel, category-based selection method. It would be better to focus on improving the Comprehensive Ranking System. This seems like a step backward from what had been a human capital-based (or expected earnings-based) selection process. I suspect this is designed to allow the government to choose less-skilled applicants to satisfy the demands of different business lobby groups.”

Worswick wrote that he suspected that some of the newly prioritized industries and occupations in trades contracting, transport, and agriculture could lead to an influx of low-earning immigrants.

“If we bring in workers whenever employer groups say there is a ‘labour shortage,’ we risk keeping wages low and hurting lower-wage workers in Canada who may need wage growth, especially given our challenges with inflation. We should focus on bringing in economic immigrants with the highest human capital (as measured by expected earnings),” he wrote.

Source: https://hilltimes.us10.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a90bfb63c26a30f02131a677b&id=0071de5ea4&e=685e94e554

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Jedwab: Immigration versus the protection of French in Quebec 

2023/06/01 Leave a comment

Jack’s commentary:

There now appears to be a political consensus in Quebec that the greater the number of immigrants that come here the more the French language is threatened. That’s the inevitable takeaway from a unanimous motion recently adopted by the National Assembly declaring that the federal government’s plan to admit 500,000 newcomers to Canada each year is incompatible with the protection of the French language. Such declarations by elected officials risk encouraging even more Quebecers to regard immigrants as a threat.

While the motion targets immigrants and the federal government, it would seem to be directed toward those Quebecers who are repeatedly reminded that French is under siege and being told who to blame. While politicians might do such things, Quebec’s Ministry of Immigration, Francisation and Integration conveys a very different message. In its proposed immigration level plan for 2023, the minister,  Christine Fréchette, states:

“Immigration remains part of the answer to the sociolinguistic, demographic and labour force issues facing Quebec. Immigrants bring a diversity of talents to Quebec and everything must be done to facilitate their integration. Your government wants immigration to contribute to the dynamism of the Quebec economy in all its regions and to the vitality of the French language.”

It adds: “Immigrants of all origins can find their place in Quebec society and contribute to the survival of the French language, to the prosperity of our regions and to a harmonious and diversified community.”

The motion from the National Assembly serves to reiterate the frequent call to repatriate immigration powers from Ottawa that presumably prevent Quebec from fully controlling its immigration policies and programs. But the ministry points to the considerable authority the government has when it comes to immigration and newcomer integration. The existing “Canada-Quebec immigration agreement,” it says, “allows Quebec to fully assume its responsibilities with respect to immigration levels planning, selection, francization and integration of immigrants.

The ministry goes on to note that, under the agreement, “Quebec is responsible for the selection of economic immigrants, refugees abroad and applications processed on humanitarian or public interest grounds.”

Quebec politicians need to be a good deal more specific when they talk about the immigration powers they must acquire to counter the grave threat to French that newcomers purportedly constitute. It’s true the processing of refugee claims made domestically is the exclusive responsibility of Ottawa. Are we to believe the few thousand vulnerable persons who annually seek asylum and end up in Quebec are the source of the threat to the French language?

In the aftermath of the election of the Coalition Avenir Québec in 2018, the government reduced the numbers of immigrants who were to be admitted to Quebec, demonstrating that the projected annual immigration levels targeted by the federal government do not directly bear on Quebec’s desired yearly intake.

The ministry goes on to note that, under the agreement, “Quebec is responsible for the selection of economic immigrants, refugees abroad and applications processed on humanitarian or public interest grounds.”

Quebec politicians need to be a good deal more specific when they talk about the immigration powers they must acquire to counter the grave threat to French that newcomers purportedly constitute. It’s true the processing of refugee claims made domestically is the exclusive responsibility of Ottawa. Are we to believe the few thousand vulnerable persons who annually seek asylum and end up in Quebec are the source of the threat to the French language?

In the aftermath of the election of the Coalition Avenir Québec in 2018, the government reduced the numbers of immigrants who were to be admitted to Quebec, demonstrating that the projected annual immigration levels targeted by the federal government do not directly bear on Quebec’s desired yearly intake.

Quebec needs immigrants and it is perfectly legitimate for the government to make efforts to attract the maximum number of French-speakers. But, ideally, it needs to explain the challenges associated with doing so rather than sounding the alarm for political ends.

Jack Jedwab is president and CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute.

Source: Immigration versus the protection of French in Quebec

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Trudeau can’t keep juicing the economy with more spending

2023/05/31 Leave a comment

Some interesting nuggets in this op-ed by Argitis and Asselin, suggesting that some of their “cheerleading” of increased immigration may be undergoing a rethink. Needed greater emphasis on productivity and per capita GDP is an implicit admission that their support for the government’s permanent and temporary immigration has run counter to increased productivity.

And their suggestion for a slowdown in immigration, albeit not for economic class, to give housing a chance to “catch up” again is an implicit admission that their focus on levels (“more”) neglected the very real impacts on housing (in addition to healthcare and infrastructure).

Further (needed) cracks in the overall consensus?

The unexpected pick up in Canadian inflation last month — even if it turns out to be a blip — is a fresh reminder that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is facing a more perilous economic policy landscape going forward, with difficult trade-offs on the horizon.

The natural economic instinct of this government has been generous budget spending and open international migration.

Yet, Trudeau doesn’t need to look much further than Statistics Canada’s inflation numbers or last week’s call from the G7 for global “de-risking” to see how things are changing.

With the world entering a period of scarcity — from more expensive money to supply constraints — the rationale to juice the nation’s economy is weakening.

The housing crisis is a manifestation of that, as are broader price pressures and the Bank of Canada’s historically aggressive run of interest rate hikes.

Trudeau came to power in 2015 on an anti-austerity platform to reverse his Conservative predecessor’s sluggish growth record which, as the Liberals were quick to remind Canadians at the time, was the weakest since R.B. Bennett was prime minister in the 1930s.

The economics were sound at the time, even if the growth dividend didn’t pay off.

Canada’s economy was demand deficient early in Trudeau’s mandate as commodity prices slumped, while the extra spending helped ease financial stability risks by taking some pressure off the Bank of Canada to stoke growth.

Higher international migration drove gains in labour income and provided support to a housing market that was still largely within reach of affordability. Inflation wasn’t a worry. In fact, the concern for policymakers was it may not have been high enough.

New social programs, meanwhile, allowed the government to make significant strides on equality and redistribution — particularly with respect to lowering poverty.

The Trudeau administration’s weighty policy objectives were synergetic to the economic environment. Policies were rowing more or less in the same direction.

The current post-pandemic environment, though, is no longer as accommodating.

While many policymakers and economists still buy into a moderately optimistic outlook, with continued growth and inflation brought into check, less favourable outcomes are increasingly plausible.

There is a real possibility that inflation and interest rates will remain well above pre-pandemic levels, growth becomes more anemic, budget dynamics worsen and the climate transition proves costly.

Instead of working in concert, the government’s three core economic policy objectives — growth, equity and price stability — could become increasingly in conflict.

For example, increasing immigration is a long-term positive for an economy threatened by aging demographics. And more social spending is typically associated with less inequality.

But higher borrowing costs stoked by large increases in population and government spending will impact disproportionately lower income Canadians and young families, potentially creating divisions and threatening new sorts of inequality.

Add energy transition to the mix and national security issues and the landscape becomes a minefield.

The policy arena will be more ambiguous and the government pulled in multiple directions. Policy paralysis, wasted effort and poor allocation of resources are real risks.

There are certain fundamentals and policy guardrails, however, that can help the government navigate this challenge.

First, policymakers should prioritize growing GDP on a per capita basis and increasing productivity over expanding the overall aggregate economy. Both are important, but the former is where true prosperity lies and where Canada is failing. Masking underlying weakness with gains in national income is just a recipe for stagnant wages. Enhanced productivity also helps dampen inflationary pressures.

Second, toolkits and policy precision matter.

For example, supply side solutions are critical to productivity, but policymakers also need to be cognizant of short-term impacts in an inflationary world. Focusing more on economic migration and temporarily slowing the pace of new entrants to allow housing supply to catch up appears a reasonable solution to the current housing crisis.

Another example is industrial policy, which needs to become more sophisticated. Advanced economies will compete in advanced industries, where there is a concentration of R&D and skilled workers. Quick fixes through corporate subsidies, however, are not the answer. Canada needs a modern science and technology architecture that translates ideas into economic outputs, higher wages and better living standards.

The third guardrail is the most Canadian: be reasonable and pragmatic.

This seems obvious but we should not take this principle for granted, particularly as we rush (rightly) to meet ambitious climate targets. Canada remains a resource economy. The sector pays a lot of bills, keeps our currency stable and government finances flush with cash.

It’s also where any global power we may have as a nation lies. That makes an orderly climate transition paramount.

Theo Argitis is managing director at Compass Rose Group. Robert Asselin is senior vice-president, policy at the Business Council of Canada.

Source: Trudeau can’t keep juicing the economy with more spending

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