PBO: Projecting the Cost of the Interim Federal Health Program
2026/02/14 2 Comments
Informative PBO Report:
Highlights
- The Interim Federal Health Program (IFHP) provides limited and temporary healthcare coverage to some groups of foreign nationals who are not eligible for health insurance from provinces or territories.
- PBO estimates that total IFHP costs will reach almost $1.0 billion in 2025‑26 and rise to over $1.5 billion by 2029‑30. PBO projects that annual growth in IFHP costs will average well below the average growth observed over the past five years, reflecting both a moderated increase in the number of beneficiaries and a more gradual rise in average annual costs.
- Budget 2025 indicated that a “modest co-payment model” will be introduced to the Interim Federal Health Program for supplemental health products or services. This change to the program is not reflected in our projection. Including this new measure would reduce our estimate of the total cost for the IFHP program.
Summary
The Interim Federal Health Program (IFHP) provides “limited and temporary healthcare coverage to some groups of foreign nationals who are vulnerable and disadvantaged, and who are not eligible for health insurance from provinces or territories.”
Between 2020-21 and 2024-25, the cost of the program grew from $211 million to $896 million as both the number of beneficiaries and the cost per beneficiary increased significantly. PBO estimates that total IFHP costs will reach almost $1.0 billion in 2025‑26 and rise to over $1.5 billion by 2029‑30 (Table S-1).Table S-1Projected IFHP cost, millions of dollars
| 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cost | 989 | 1,104 | 1,232 | 1,376 | 1,522 |
We project that average annual growth for IFHP costs will be 11.2 per cent between 2025‑26 and 2029‑30, well below the 33.7 per cent average growth observed over the past five years. This slower growth reflects both a moderated increase in the number of beneficiaries and a more gradual rise in average annual costs.
Budget 2025 indicated that a “modest co-payment model” will be introduced to the Interim Federal Health Program for supplemental health products or services. This change to the program is not reflected in our projection. Including this new measure would reduce our estimate of the total cost for the IFHP program.
Source: Projecting the Cost of the Interim Federal Health Program
Toronto Sun commentary: LILLEY: False asylum claims drive refugee health-care program toward $1B price tag
About Andrew
Multicultural Meanderings 
Incentive compatibility is one way to prevent abuse of the Interim Federal Health System. Thus, the co-pays. With respect to the “regular” provincial healthcare systems, such as OHIP, there is no incentive compatibility, but the presumption is that the social fabric of Canada is strong enough that most people don’t want to consume excess healthcare. My impression is that there is little abuse of the provincial systems, after you account for the fact that a large fraction of healthcare system expenditures are associated with the last year of the patient’s life.
Think you are correct in this. Most people don’t want to go to the hospital unless an emergency or otherwise necessary, and haven’t seen much commentary from family doctors of this being a concern.