Donald Trump’s latest anti-immigration policies may drive migrants to Canada. But are they welcome here?

2025/12/10 Leave a comment

Not with open arms given overall public opinion on immigration having risen too much before the recent reductions:

Since late last month, Toronto resident Hazat Wahriz has been approached by Afghan friends and acquaintances in the U.S. desperately asking about refuge in Canada.

With Washington pausing and reviewing the entire asylum system and immigration processing of applicants from certain countries including Afghanistan, he said his compatriots south of the border are fearful of losing their already precarious status and being deported to the embrace of the Taliban.

“Just imagine you belong to a community that is inadmissible there and is not welcome,” said Wahriz, a former university professor and diplomat in Afghanistan, who came to Canada for asylum in 2013 and is a citizen. “Now the U.S. is not a safe country for them. Deportation for most of these people is going to be a sentence to death.”…

Montreal immigration lawyer Marc-André Séguin said it’s too early to predict how Trump’s policies would affect the refugee flow to Canada, but Ottawa’s stronger border enforcement — and slashing of immigration levels — sends a strong message to would-be claimants abroad. 

“Canada is certainly trying to make it more challenging for asylum seekers to seek refuge on Canadian soil,” said Séguin, who practises American and Canadian immigration law, and has been retained by U.S. clients concerned about their status there.   

“Canada in the recent past has done a lot to to make itself less attractive. To what extent will that play a role in possible demand? It’s hard to say at the moment.”…

Source: Donald Trump’s latest anti-immigration policies may drive migrants to Canada. But are they welcome here?

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More Canadians, including children, detained in U.S. for immigration violations, new data show

2025/12/10 Leave a comment

Not surprising, inevitable result of sweeping crackdowns:

A sweeping immigration crackdown in the United States is increasingly ensnaring Canadians who don’t have criminal records – including at least six children – new U.S. government data show. 

An estimated 207 Canadians have now been held in Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody at some point since January, when President Donald Trump took office. The total number of Canadians held in 2024 was 130.

Earlier this year, an initial Globe and Mail analysis revealed that ICE had detained two Canadian toddlers in May at a remote facility in Texas. The analysis also showed that Canadians held by ICE were more likely to have criminal records than many other nationalities swept up in the White House’s mass deportation campaign, which has primarily targeted immigrants from Latin America. 

In the first half of 2025, almost 70 per cent of Canadians placed in immigration detention had criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. 

Now, a growing number of Canadian detainees are being held on immigration violations alone, updated enforcement data covering late July to mid-October show.

Of the Canadians detained during this period, some 44 per cent had no criminal records or pending charges against them, The Globe has found. The detainees include four children ranging in age from under two years old to about 16 years old.

Source: More Canadians, including children, detained in U.S. for immigration violations, new data show

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The median entry wage of new immigrants decreased by 10.6% in 2023 but remained above its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level

2025/12/09 Leave a comment

Of note:

The median wage earned by new immigrants in Canada one year after admission can be a good predictor of their future economic outcomes. The real median entry wage (after adjusting for inflation) of newcomers decreased by 10.6% from 2022 to 2023, the largest decline since 1991.

This drop among immigrants from 2022 to 2023 occurred amid a 1.1% increase in the overall real median wage of Canadians over this period. While entry wages decreased across most immigrant categories, the overall decline is partly related to the fact that the proportion of immigrants admitted as principal applicants under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), who typically have a higher entry wage, reached an all-time high in 2021, but fell below 2019 pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels in 2022.

This Daily release explores the economic outcomes of recent immigrants in the 2024 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). It outlines variations in the economic outcomes of newcomers by admission category, pre-admission experience and province. The IMDB is the result of a collaboration between Statistics Canada, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), and the provinces.

Infographic 1 
Median entry wage of immigrants and percentage change from previous year, tax year 1990 to 2023

Thumbnail for Infographic 1: Median entry wage of immigrants and percentage change from previous year, tax year 1990 to 2023

The median entry wage for new immigrants decreases more in 2023 than in 2020, but remains higher than every other year prior to 2021

The median entry wage of immigrants steadily increased from 2010 to 2022, except in 2020 when wages were impacted by the pandemic.

From 2020 to 2021, the real median entry wage of immigrants rose by over one-fifth (+21.2%), increasing from $34,400 to $41,700. It then rose a further 6.7% year over year to $44,500 in 2022. In 2023, the median entry wage of immigrants declined by 10.6% to $39,800 but remained higher than the median entry wage in 2020 ($34,400) and every other year prior to 2021.

This was a relatively large decline, given that the overall real median wage of Canadians increased by 1.1% to $47,650 in 2023.

The decrease in the number of Canadian Experience Class principal applicants admitted in 2022 may contribute to the overall decline of the median entry wage of new immigrants in 2023

In 2023, immigrants from each of the main admission categories saw their median entry wage decline compared with the previous year. Specifically, the median entry wage declined for spouse and dependent economic immigrants (-7.3% year over year to $34,400), for immigrants sponsored by family (-4.1% to $30,300) and for refugees (-1.9% to $25,900).

Economic principal applicants, who are selected for their ability to contribute to Canada’s economic development, had the highest median entry wage among the four main admission categories at $51,500 in 2023. While this was a 5.5% decline from the previous year, each of the specific programs within the economic principal applicant stream experienced smaller decreases or even increases in entry wage.

In 2023, CEC principal applicants, who are selected based on their Canadian work experience, remained the admission category with the highest median entry wage. Their median entry wage rose 3.4% to $60,600 in 2023, following a decline in 2022 from its peak in 2021 ($71,000).

In 2023, principal applicants from the skilled worker and skilled trades (-4.4% to $56,000) and provincial/territorial nominee (-3.8% to $47,700) programs saw their entry median wages decrease from a year earlier. Business (-2.4% to $24,900) and caregiver (+4.9% to $38,500) principal applicants had the lowest entry income among economic principal applicants.

The decreases in the median entry wages by admission categories in 2023 were mostly smaller than what was observed for the overall immigrant population (-10.6%). This discrepancy is likely related to changes in the makeup of the immigrant population and their admission categories.

In 2021, IRCC specifically invited express entry candidates, who were more likely to be physically located in Canada and therefore less impacted by pandemic-related border restrictions, to apply for permanent residency. This was done, in part, by increasing the number of immigrants admitted through the CEC program, the category with the highest median entry wage. Specifically, the share of immigrants aged 15 years and older admitted as CEC principal applicants increased from 12% in 2020 to 27% in 2021. This change contributed to the growth of the entry wage of all new immigrants in 2022. With the removal of border restrictions in 2022, CEC principal applicants were less targeted, and their share declined to 5% in that year. This, in addition to the other factors at play during the post-pandemic period, contributed to the overall reduction in the entry wages of new immigrants in 2023….

Source: The median entry wage of new immigrants decreased by 10.6% in 2023 but remained above its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level

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StatsCan: Portrait of the South Asian populations in Canada

2025/12/09 Leave a comment

Another in StatsCan population portraits:

South Asian populations in Canada nearly quadrupled from 1996 to 2021

In 2021, South Asian populations were the largest racialized group in Canada, numbering nearly 2.6 million people and representing 7.1% of Canada’s total population. This was nearly four times as large as the size of the South Asian populations 25 years earlier, in 1996, when they numbered 669,060 people and made up 2.4% of the population.

According to the latest population projections, South Asian populations in Canada could reach 4.7 million to 6.5 million people by 2041, which would make up 11.0% to 12.5% of the total population.

India is the most common place of birth of South Asian populations in Canada

Overall, approximately 6 in 10 South Asians in Canada in 2021 were born in Southern Asia, 3 in 10 were born in Canada and 1 in 10 were born in other regions of the world.

The most common country of birth for South Asian populations was India (44%), while the other main places of birth in South Asia were Pakistan (9%), Sri Lanka (5%) and Bangladesh (3%).

Other places of birth outside Canada included countries in other regions of Asia (such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan), Africa (such as Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda), the Caribbean and Central and South America (mainly Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago), Europe (mainly the United Kingdom), Oceania (mainly Fiji) and the United States (Table 1).

Among the 29% of South Asians who were born in Canada, the largest group was that of people whose parents were both born in India, followed by those whose parents were both born in Pakistan, both born in Sri Lanka and both born in Canada.

The majority of South Asian immigrants who immigrated from 1980 to 2021 are economic immigrants

Among South Asian immigrants living in Canada in 2021 who immigrated during the period from 1980 to 2021, the majority were economic immigrants (54%). This share was larger among those who had immigrated from 2011 to 2021 (69%) than among those who had immigrated from 1981 to 1990 (36%).

From 1980 to 2021, economic immigrants made up the majority of South Asian immigrants across many places of birth, including India (57%), Pakistan (56%) and Bangladesh (61%) (Chart 1). Meanwhile, South Asians born in Sri Lanka were mostly a mix of refugees (42%), immigrants sponsored by family (33%) and economic immigrants (21%)….

Source: Study: Portrait of the South Asian populations in Canada

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HESA: New Statscan Data on Students and Academic Staff

2025/12/09 Leave a comment

Of interest. College sector and business programs were the main abusers:

The student data is the slightly more interesting of the two, because it (finally) shows the system essentially at the height of the international student boom in the late fall of 2023 (Statscan student data is based on an October/November snapshot and therefore does not quite capture the full craziness of what went on in Ontario colleges, where most all international students were on an 8-month schedule with starts happening every four months and so therefore did not necessarily show up on Statscan scans). 

Unsurprisingly, total enrolments in Canadian postsecondary went up. A lot. 140,000 or so, which in absolute terms is the biggest single-year increase in post-secondary enrolments in Canadian history. But as figure 1 shows, that increase was a) highly concentrated in the college sector and b) largely due to international students.

Figure 1: Increase in Post-Secondary Enrolments by Sector and Source, Canada, 2023-24

Figure 2 breaks down the college increase by field of study.  Again, not a huge surprise: the biggest source of increase was business programs (cheap to deliver, required level of English not all that high); if anything, though I am surprised that so many programs saw an increase in enrolments: this result is actually substantially less business-centric than I would have expected.

Figure 2: Increase in College Enrolments by Field of Study, 2023-24

Source: New Statscan Data on Students and Academic Staff

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2025 is not 1984: Bob Rae Notes on President Trump’s “National Security Strategy”

2025/12/08 Leave a comment

Money quote:

…2025 is not 1984. War is not peace. Freedom is not slavery. Ignorance is not strength. 2 plus 2 does not equal 5. And we still choose not to love Big Brother. It will be a world of difficult choices, but our moral integrity and our determination to make our way in the world make subjugation and acquiescence an unacceptable choice. 

Source: 2025 is not 1984: Bob Rae Notes on President Trump’s “National Security Strategy”

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Young Canadians increasingly tie immigration to home affordability problems, survey finds

2025/12/08 Leave a comment

Link to report below to this insightful report. Really good analysis across different aspects:

Canadians’ attitudes toward immigration are the most negative they have been since the early 1990s, driven particularly by young people linking high migrant inflows to the affordability crisis and a housing shortage.

A new report from the Institute for Research on Public Policy, written by University of Toronto researchers, shows just how suddenly and dramatically sentiment toward immigration has changed in recent years. The report is based on 26 surveys produced by the Environics Institute between 1981 and 2024. 

Environics surveys the Canadian public annually on a variety of topics. Recent survey results have particularly stood out because of a pointed negative shift in attitudes toward immigration, after more than two decades of mostly pro-immigration sentiment across the country. This prompted the researchers to conduct a historical analysis of immigration attitudes in Canada to gauge when, previously, Canadians held such negative views. 

“Such drastic changes in public opinion are not common,” wrote Randy Besco and Natasha Goel, political science academics at the University of Toronto. “Public attitudes are usually subject to short-term shifts, only when there are major events or sustained media coverage, and such swings usually reverse quickly,” they said. …

Source: Young Canadians increasingly tie immigration to home affordability problems, survey finds

Report: Who Changed Their Minds? Two Shifts in Canadian Public Opinion on Immigration: 1995-2005 and 2023-24

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Diversity of candidates is fundamental to trust in political leadership

2025/12/08 Leave a comment

I think her arguments overstate concerns over candidate selection by ignoring the fact that the vast majority of candidates selected by the three major parities is visible minority majority ridings (i.e., those ridings with visible minorities forming more than 50 percent of the population) are in fact visible minorities themselves, over 80 percent in ridings with 70 percent visible minorities, over 40 percent in ridings with between 50 and 70 percent. Even in ridings with between 20 and 50 percent visible minorities, over 20 percent are visible minority candidates.

Of course, just like women candidates, visible minority candidates are more likely in non-competitive ridings:

…Party networks and the limits of recruitment

Part of the job of political parties is to select candidates who will win their seats and thus aid in the party’s quest for power.

However, party recruiters tend to select candidates from their own networks, which are mainly comprised of people like themselves. If recruiters are mostly white men – and that’s been the case historically – then most candidates will likely be white men. Changing this trend requires changing both the recruiter and their networks.

Some parties have tried to combat this by insisting that riding associations look harder for more diverse candidates. The New Democrats are notable here.

But local executives can undermine these efforts even once a candidate has been chosen. For example, a Black lesbian candidate told me that her Liberal riding association said it didn’t have a lot of money for her campaign, yet had no trouble finding more cash for the white men who ran before and after her. These actions can send the message that only white men should apply to be candidates.

Social media scrutiny as a new barrier

In addition, social media scandals are an emerging barrier to candidacy. They first became an issue earlier this century when several federal and provincial candidates were forced to step down after problematic posts came to light. Negative headlines led parties to tighten candidate vetting as a result.

But heightened scrutiny runs the risk of excluding Indigenous, queer and feminist individuals who definitely don’t share the party’s views on everything or whose views may have changed over the years, yet their original posts can still be found online. This could also deter some young people from running because many of them have documented their lives and views online since adolescence.

Scrub one’s social media sites, you say? That doesn’t always work. It’s not uncommon for party operatives to document the online accounts of people they expect to run for office in the future – both to protect themselves and to inflict reputational harm on their opponents. The inability to fully erase one’s online presence means candidate vetting will likely get tougher.

This reality might make it even harder for diverse candidates to make it to the electoral starting line. If so, white men’s dominance in our legislatures and leadership positions will continue.

Barriers such as these make it harder for Canadians of all backgrounds to contribute to our collective governance. More importantly, ongoing resistance to diverse candidates can undermine political trust. If political parties don’t trust diverse people to hold power, why should diverse Canadians trust politicians to govern on their behalf?

Dr. Angelia Wagner is an assistant lecturer and adjunct professor in the department of political science at the University of Alberta. 

Source: Diversity of candidates is fundamental to trust in political leadership

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StatsCan: The diverse volunteering contributions of racialized Canadians, 2023

2025/12/08 Leave a comment

Interesting findings:

In 2023, 70% of racialized Canadians gave their time, expertise and skills to a range of benevolent causes in the previous 12 months.

Most of this help was arranged informally, mirroring overall patterns in volunteering. In 2023, 64% of racialized Canadians reported helping people directly or improving the community on their own. Meanwhile, 29% of racialized Canadians reported volunteering through a charitable organization or group.

In recognition of International Volunteer Day, Statistics Canada is releasing a new study examining the volunteering contributions of racialized Canadians, entitled ”The diverse volunteering contributions of racialized Canadians.” This study uses data from the 2023 Survey on Giving, Volunteering and Participating, which was held from September 15, 2023, to March 30, 2024. This marks the first time this survey has collected data on racialized groups, allowing for an in-depth look at volunteering among these populations in Canada.

Particular attention is paid to differences in volunteering patterns between racialized Canadian-born and racialized immigrant populations given that three-quarters of racialized individuals were born outside Canada.

Among racialized individuals, those born in Canada are most likely to volunteer

Racialized populations in Canada are diverse in terms of their ethnic and cultural origins and their immigrant status. Some people are newcomers, others long-established residents, and many were born in Canada. These differences are reflected in volunteering patterns.

Overall, in 2023, volunteering was more common among racialized individuals born in Canada (79%) compared with racialized immigrants (67%), both recent (66%) and established (67%) immigrants. The volunteering rate for Canadian-born racialized individuals (79%) also surpassed the volunteering rates for non-racialized, non-Indigenous populations born in Canada (74%) and those born outside of Canada (70%).

This higher rate of volunteering among Canadian-born racialized individuals was seen across all racialized groups. For example, among South Asians—who had one of the highest volunteering rates—82% of those born in Canada volunteered in the 12 months prior to the survey, compared with 69% of South Asian immigrants.

Religious and social services are the most common sectors receiving help from racialized volunteers

When racialized Canadians volunteered on behalf of an organization or group in the 12 months prior to the 2023 survey, the religious and social service sectors emerged as the most common areas of involvement. Overall, 25% of racialized volunteers gave their time to religious organizations. This proportion is similar to that of racialized volunteers who provided support to social services (24%), which can include organizations providing services for families, emergency and relief, and income support.

Among racialized volunteers, the level of volunteering was greatest in the religious sector, with the total number of volunteering hours in this sector surpassing that of all other sectors. This contrasts with the patterns observed for non-racialized, non-Indigenous volunteers, for whom the total hours dedicated to the religious sector did not significantly differ from that of other sectors.

The greater involvement of racialized volunteers in the religious sector was driven by racialized immigrant volunteers (28%), who were more likely than racialized Canadian-born volunteers (19%) to dedicate time to this sector. Meanwhile, Canadian-born racialized volunteers were more likely than racialized immigrant volunteers to dedicate time to the education and research sector (23% compared with 11%) and the sports and recreation sector (17% compared with 10%).

Contributing to the community is a leading reason for volunteering 

When asked about the reasons for volunteering on behalf of an organization or group in the 12 months preceding the 2023 survey, contributing to the community (87%) and wanting to use one’s skills and experience (74%) were the top reasons given by racialized volunteers. Networking and meeting new people were other common motivations, reported by 52% of racialized volunteers, with there being no difference by place of birth (in or outside of Canada). One difference, however, was the higher likelihood of volunteering to improve job opportunities among Canadian-born racialized individuals (48%) than among racialized immigrants (28%).

Chart 1 
Top five reasons for formal volunteering among racialized volunteers, 2023

Chart 1: Top five reasons for formal volunteering among racialized volunteers, 2023

As for barriers to volunteering, Canadian-born racialized individuals (particularly Chinese and Black populations) were slightly more likely (95%) to report facing at least one challenge, compared with racialized immigrants (92%). There were no other differences across other population groups.

Not having enough time was the leading barrier to volunteering across all groups, though this barrier was more often reported by racialized individuals born in Canada (82%) than by racialized immigrants (74%). Knowledge, access and information barriers were more commonly reported by racialized immigrants (42%) than by racialized individuals born in Canada (36%).

Source: Study: The diverse volunteering contributions of racialized Canadians, 2023

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Trump official signals potential rollback of changes to census racial categories

2025/12/08 Leave a comment

Not unexpected but still shortsighted and further demonstration of an age of ignorance:

A Trump administration official on Friday signaled a potential rollback of the racial and ethnic categories approved for the 2030 census and other future federal government forms.

Supporters of those categories fear that any last-minute modifications to the U.S. government’s standards for data about race and ethnicity could hurt the accuracy of census data and other future statistics used for redrawing voting districts, enforcing civil rights protections and guiding policymaking.

Those standards were last revised in 2024 during the Biden administration, after Census Bureau research and public discussion.

A White House agency at the time approved, among other changes, new checkboxes for “Middle Eastern or North African” and “Hispanic or Latino” under a reformatted question that asks survey participants: “What is your race and/or ethnicity?” The revisions also require the federal government to stop automatically categorizing people who identify with Middle Eastern or North African groups as white.

But at a Friday meeting of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics in Washington, D.C., the chief statistician within the White House’s Office of Management and Budget revealed that the Trump administration has started a new review of those standards and how the 2024 revisions were approved.

“We’re still at the very beginning of a review. And this, again, is not prejudging any particular outcome. I think we just wanted to be able to take a look at the process and decide where we wanted to end up on a number of these questions,” said Mark Calabria. “I’ve certainly heard a wide range of views within the administration. So it’s just premature to say where we’ll end up.”

OMB’s press office did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for comment.

Source: Trump official signals potential rollback of changes to census racial categories

Filed under Multiculturalism, Trump administration Tagged with ,

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