Poilievre tentatively courts Canada’s rising dissatisfaction with immigration

2025/03/27 Leave a comment

Not too much new in terms of the general points. More use of Century Initiative as punching ball, particularly given Mark Wiseman, one of the main persons behind CI2100, being appointed an advisor to PM Carney.

My earlier assessment of what to expect under a Conservative government largely still holds with the exception that the changes by former immigration minister Miller have paved the way for further restrictions:

After years of avoiding any clear position on the subject of immigration levels, the Conservatives have opened the 2025 campaign with a hard pledge to “slow immigration down” to sustainable levels.

“I want people to come here (in) numbers that can actually be housed, employed, and cared for,” Poilievre told a reporter on Monday, adding that he would directly tie immigration levels to homebuilding.

“So we’re always going to be adding homes faster than we add people,” he said.

Poilievre also lashed out again at the Century Initiative, a pro-immigration non-profit which advocates for Canada to have a population of 100 million by 2100.

The Conservative leader framed the group as advocating a “radical, crazy idea” to “bring in people from poor countries in large numbers, to take away Canadian jobs, drive wages down and profits up.”

It’s not the first time that Poilievre has criticized Liberal handling of immigration. A common refrain of Poilievre in the House of Commons was that the Liberals had “lost control of immigration.”

Last summer, he told a press conference that “we have to have a smaller population growth.” In a podcast interview with psychologist Jordan Peterson, Poilievre said “we’re not interested in the world’s ethno-cultural conflicts.”

At a Holocaust commemoration ceremony in January, Poilievre said Canada needs to start deporting immigrants involved in hate crimes.

“We must deport from our country any temporary resident that is here on a permit or a visa that is carrying out violence or hate crimes on our soil,” he said.

But this usually stopped short of any specific promises on immigration levels, visa quotas or screening procedures.

In fact, Poilievre’s ambiguity on immigration issues has been slammed by both the Liberals and by his critics on the conservative fringes.

At a media roundtable in Brampton, Ont., earlier this year, then immigration minister Marc Miller defended his government’s sudden turn towards reduced immigration levels, including non-renewal for the visas of more than two million temporary migrants in the country who might have expected permanent residency.

Source: FIRST READING: Poilievre tentatively courts Canada’s rising dissatisfaction with immigration

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Open letter to the next prime minister: We need a royal commission on Canada’s future

2025/03/27 2 Comments

Yet another call:

There is no longer any room for doubt. Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is a seismic shift for the entire world. 

However, the liberal international order that Trump threatens and that benefited Canada so greatly for so long has been unraveling for more than two decades. As a result, Canadian policies and mindsets rooted in the late 20th century are hopelessly outdated.

The time for complacency is over. Canada must wake up, adapt and steel itself for the harsh realities of today. In short, we need a royal commission on securing Canada’s future. 

The world in which Canada operates has fundamentally changed in the last 20 years. It began with the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  Afterward, security trumped trade in the U.S. New and enhanced security measures led to a “thicker” border. More rules, regulations, paperwork and scrutiny caused delays and increased costs. Canada-U.S. trade suffered as a result. 

This shift further illustrated the risks of Canada’s deep economic dependence on its southern neighbour, but our reaction was to work even more closely with the U.S. to keep the border open to trade. Since then, the escalating climate crisis, the rapid digital transformation, the global financial crisis, China’s economic and political rise, Russia’s authoritarian resurgence and U.S. fears of hegemonic decline have only intensified America’s focus on national security as a defining feature of its economic relations, pushing other countries to do he same.

The policies and governance mechanisms that underpin Canada’s society, economy and security were not designed for the current illiberal international landscape.   …

Source: Open letter to the next prime minister: We need a royal commission on Canada’s future

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USA: A new study quantifies how a #citizenship question would likely hurt census accuracy

2025/03/27 Leave a comment

Contrast with Canada where citizenship has been part of the census for many years. But in current US political context, understandable how this would affect response rates:

Adding a citizenship question to U.S. census forms — a change that many Republicans in Congress and President Trump have wanted — would likely undermine the accuracy of the country’s population counts, a new peer-reviewed study shows.

The findings, published last week in the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, build on earlier research by the Census Bureau and quantify longstanding concerns among opponents of the question, who fear it could derail the once-a-decade tally of U.S. residents that’s used to redistribute political representation and federal funding to communities.

Census participation levels have long varied among different demographic groups. For example, in the 2020 census, those differences helped drive the overcounting of people who identify as white and not Hispanic and the undercounting of Latinos.

Source: A new study quantifies how a citizenship question would likely hurt census accuracy

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Trump overhauls US elections in new executive order, including proof of citizenship

2025/03/27 Leave a comment

Expect court challenges:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed a sweeping executive action to overhaul U.S. elections, including requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and demanding that all ballots be received by Election Day. The order calls on states to work with federal agencies to share voter lists and prosecute election crimes. It threatens to pull federal funding from states where election officials don’t comply.

The Republican National Committee launched a massive effort to probe voter registration lists nationwide.

Trump often claims elections are being rigged, even before the results are known, and has waged battles against certain voting methods since he lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden and falsely blamed it on widespread fraud.

Source: Trump overhauls US elections in new executive order, including proof of citizenship

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Lawyers advise Canadians working in U.S. to avoid travel amid border crackdown

2025/03/27 Leave a comment

Of note (one of our children is working in the USA and hearing from others whose travel plans being affected):

U.S. immigration lawyers are warning foreigners working and studying in America – including Canadians – to refrain from international travel, saying that crossing the U.S. border has become significantly more unpredictable since U.S. President Donald Trump took office and that they run the risk of being detained or refused entry.

The Trump administration has issued a series of broad executive orders over the past two months that aim to “secure” the American border by expediting the removal of undocumented migrants. But immigration lawyers say the overall hostile tone from the White House toward non-U.S. citizens is emboldening border agents to become more heavy-handed with travellers leaving and entering the country, even those who hold valid work and study visas.

In some cases lawyers are advising clients to prepare for increased scrutiny of their personal histories, including possible searches of their cellphones for evidence of their political leanings.

Earlier this month, New York-based immigration law firm Dyer Harris LLP, which helps foreigners secure work visas in the U.S., sent an e-mail to their clients residing and working in the country recommending that they hold off on international travel altogether, unless in an emergency.

“The hostile chaos emanating from the White House should make everyone cautious on international travel for the time being,” the e-mail read. “Make arrangements with family and friends to be in touch on a daily basis [if crossing the border]. It is crucial someone knows where you are, and that action is taken if you are taken into custody.”

Recently, there have been multiple incidents of business travellers and tourists arbitrarily being stopped at U.S. border crossings and sometimes held for weeks at U.S. immigration detention centres….

Source: Lawyers advise Canadians working in U.S. to avoid travel amid border crackdown

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As Trump cuts university research, American scholars look north

2025/03/26 Leave a comment

Encouraging that Canadian universities are actively engaged in such recruitment:

In the early days of the second Trump administration, Frédéric Bouchard, dean of arts and sciences at University of Montreal, told his faculty’s two dozen department chairs to keep an eye out for talented researchers in the United States who might be looking for a change of scenery.

If they knew of anyone unsettled by funding cuts and political moves in the U.S., particularly if that person had a connection to Canada, Prof. Bouchard wanted to be notified immediately.

He has already had calls from colleagues, he said.

“Any time the market for talent is rattled it makes our jobs easier recruiting the best that are out there,” Prof. Bouchard said. “It’s still early. Right now we are just discussing with various potential people, seeing whether they’re interested or not.”

Prof. Bouchard said private donors have even expressed an interest in supporting recruitment.

“Without me asking them they told me that if we found somebody, and we needed additional resources to bring them to Canada, that I should give them a call,” Prof. Bouchard said.

At the University of Toronto, department of immunology chair Jen Gommerman said she has already had researchers in the U.S. contact her about opportunities in Canada. Many are feeling demoralized, she said.

“It’s a fearful time for everyone in academia,” Prof. Gommerman said. “There’s uncertainty. There’s this feeling of loss.”

In the first weeks of the Trump administration, a series of executive orders and policy decisions has destabilized research agencies and universities. The National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have all been targeted for cuts, which the White House has said are aimed at saving money and improving efficiency…

Source: As Trump cuts university research, American scholars look north

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HESA: EDI and the Measurement of Merit

2025/03/26 Leave a comment

Good primer on EDI/DEI considerations:

…Now it is not obvious (to me at least) that the overall results of such a system are any worse than the overall results of the current system. You gain a little bit of equity in one direction and (perhaps) lose it in another. But there are winners and losers when switching from one system to another and the losers tend to scream louder than the winners.

In an ideal world, of course, one would be able to measure everyone individually by distance travelled, without the use of proxies. That way, “elites” from disadvantaged groups would not be unduly rewarded, and financially disadvantaged whites’ underprivileged position would be recognized. There would still be screaming, of course—people who were in danger of losing their position of privilege would still claim that a context-free, single-point-in-time definition of merit is “better” and “more objective” than a context-dependent one (this is more or less the position taken by the Students for Fair Admissions in the Harvard admissions case decided by the US Supreme Court in 2023). But it would have fewer drawbacks than other schemes which measure disadvantage via proxies.

Why don’t we do that? Well, I would argue it is for two reasons. The first is simply that using proxies to measure disadvantage is a whole heck of a lot cheaper than measuring it at an individual level. With proxies, you can reduce disadvantage to a set of categories that can be indicated by a tick in a box, something that reduces complexity and obviates the need to treat each case individually.

But the second and probably more important reason is that distance travelled is not an entirely straightforward and measurable proposition. It is by no means impossible to create methodologies to look for it: the Loran Scholarships and McGill’s McCall-MacBain scholarships both train assessors to look for precisely this (which is a very good reason why the former is so good at picking future Rhodes Scholars). But the problem is that there is no hard-and-fast algorithm here. You have to put selectors in a position where they can exercise judgment. And frankly, in an increasingly low-trust society, that’s hard to do (Phillip K. Howard’s Everyday Freedom: Designing the Framework for a Flourishing Society is very good on the unfree consequences of depriving administrators of the ability to exercise judgement).

And so here’s the thing: if you don’t want to measure disadvantage individually because you are too cheap to do so, and/or you can’t allow people freedom of judgement in assessing disadvantage for the purpose of measuring distance travelled, then what you’re left with as options are measurement by proxy, or settling for a definition of merit that unabashedly favours the members of the lucky sperm club. There is not really a fourth option.

Source: EDI and the Measurement of Merit

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L’exode américain LGBTQ+ vers le Canada a commencé

2025/03/26 Leave a comment

To note (early signs from immigration lawyers):

Pendant que Donald Trump courtise les millionnaires pour leur offrir une carte dorée d’immigration à 5 millions de dollars, un exode certain des familles LGBTQ+ a déjà commencé. Les demandes d’Américains souhaitant déménager ont explosé depuis son retour à la Maison-Blanche, selon des avocats et des organisations, et le Canada s’impose comme une destination de choix.



« Je n’ai jamais rien vu de tel », admet d’emblée David LeBlanc, avocat en immigration et directeur de Ferreira-Wells Immigration. Il dit recevoir une centaine de demandes par semaine.



La forte hausse se dessinait déjà à la veille de l’élection décisive de novembre dernier, mais il constate que les gens sont maintenant prêts à bouger réellement, et vite.

Jusqu’à 90 % de ses clients admissibles à un programme d’immigration au Canada ont déjà commencé le processus, affirme-t-il.

Cette firme, basée à Toronto, se considère comme une « pionnière » dans l’immigration des personnes issues des communautés LGBTQ+ depuis trois décennies. Plusieurs se demandent s’ils peuvent en fait demander l’asile au Canada, rapporte-t-il, ce qui est pour l’instant improbable. « Ça devient vite le sujet le plus chaud de notre profession en ce moment », dit M. LeBlanc.


En ce moment, parmi ceux qui sont le plus susceptibles de passer de l’idée à la réalisation, les familles LGBTQ+ sont les numéros 1 », confirme aussi depuis Toronto Evan Green, avocat spécialisé en immigration et associé principal de la firme Green and Spiegel. Son équipe reçoit « considérablement plus » de demandes depuis le retour de l’équipe Trump au pouvoir, même en comparaison avec son mandat précédent, et « l’urgence » est beaucoup plus palpable.

Aucun État ne semble épargné : « Même ici, en Californie, le climat politique est de plus en plus hostile avec des attaques claires contre les droits trans de tous les ordres de gouvernement », remarque Kathie Moehlig, directrice générale de TransFamily Support Services, un organisme basé à San Diego. La plupart des familles sont trop « tétanisées » pour parler aux médias, rapporte-t-elle. Seules les plus fortunées ou privilégiées peuvent aussi entamer les démarches, notamment vers le Canada, rappelle-t-elle.

Celles dont l’un des parents possède la nationalité canadienne sont les plus rapides à pouvoir franchir la frontière, dit M. Green….

Source: L’exode américain LGBTQ+ vers le Canada a commencé

While Donald Trump is courting millionaires to offer them a $5 million golden immigration card, a certain exodus of LGBTQ+ families has already begun. Requests from Americans wishing to move have exploded since his return to the White House, according to lawyers and organizations, and Canada is emerging as a destination of choice.

“I have never seen anything like this,” admits David LeBlanc, immigration lawyer and director of Ferreira-Wells Immigration. He says he receives a hundred requests a week.

The sharp increase was already emerging on the eve of last November’s decisive election, but he notes that people are now ready to move really, and quickly.

Up to 90% of his clients eligible for an immigration program in Canada have already started the process, he says. This Toronto-based firm has considered itself a “pioneer” in the immigration of people from LGBTQ+ communities for three decades. Many are wondering if they can actually seek asylum in Canada, he reports, which is unlikely at the moment. “It quickly becomes the hottest subject of our profession at the moment,” says Mr. LeBlanc.

At the moment, among those who are most likely to move from idea to realization, LGBTQ+ families are number 1, “also confirms from Toronto Evan Green, immigration lawyer and principal partner of the firm Green and Spiegel. His team has received “significantly more” requests since the Trump team’s return to power, even compared to his previous mandate, and “the urgency” is much more palpable.

No state seems to be spared: “Even here in California, the political climate is increasingly hostile with clear attacks on trans rights of all levels of government,” notes Kathie Moehlig, executive director of TransFamily Support Services, a San Diego-based organization. Most families are too “tetanized” to talk to the media, she reports. Only the most wealthy or privileged can also start the steps, especially to Canada, she recalls.

Those whose parents have Canadian citizenship are the fastest to cross the border, says Mr. Green.

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Kelly: Wayne Gretzky should not be the target of Canada’s discussion about the U.S.

2025/03/26 Leave a comment

Valid points and nice use of the term “Canadians of convenience:”

…If you are a Canadian who worries about what’s going to happen to this country, the only people you can count on live on your street. They take the bus with you. They go to your school.

You share something far more important than a passport with them – mutual self-interest.

We’re not getting anywhere if we keep letting outsiders influence, even pervert, our planning. It’s just we ourselves now. The sooner we can accept it, the sooner we can start making hard choices.

Wayne Gretzky was a great Canadian. Past tense. He chose another side. He’s free to do as he likes as long as he’s not hurting anyone.

But when Canada gets together for an important discussion nowadays, we need to stop inviting Gretzky and all the other Canadians of convenience. Even as fall guys.

Source: Wayne Gretzky should not be the target of Canada’s discussion about the U.S.

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Candidate nominations by party websites

2025/03/24 Leave a comment

Another indicator of party preparedness (as of 8 pm 23 March). Not all candidates have bio information available yet:

  • CPC: 266
  • LPC: 185
  • NDP: 111
  • Bloc: 71 (out of 78 ridings)
  • Green: 40
  • PPC: 284

Jerome Black and I are in the process of analyzing candidate diversity in terms of gender, indigenous, visible minority, religious minority, immigration history, LGBTQ and whether new or previous federal candidates.

Expect that virtually all candidates will be nominated by the end of the month that will allow us to do the initial analysis.

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