Lalande | To successfully fight Trump, Canada needs one thing: more Canadians

Certainly, not as many as the CI advocates. Competitiveness is real, and depends less on population growth than smart economic and immigration policies. The grave mistake was CI’s early advocacy for a larger population, Barton’s recommendations, and the Liberal government’s not thinking critically about what that would mean for housing, healthcare and infrastructure:

Time discovers truth.

In this case, it’s a brutal one.

The federal government’s decision to cut immigration targets by 21 per cent in 2025 and 24 per cent in 2026 was a grave mistake. Alarmingly, the consequences are rearing their ugly head at the worst possible time.

By reducing immigration levels, Canada is facing the economic fight of our lives with one arm tied behind our back. This is a moment when we should be projecting strength and growth — yet, instead, we have chosen to shrink. And unfortunately for us, this policy shift is occurring at the same time as another major demographic headwind: the retirement of five million Canadians by the end of the decade.

The economic impacts of these reductions are dire. A new Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) report examined the impact of reduced immigration levels and found that by 2027, Canada will see 1.3 billion fewer hours worked and a $37 billion reduction in nominal GDP, on average, over the next three years. These economic impacts will cripple Canada’s tax base, erode our economic resilience and reduce access to public services that Canadians rely upon.

We also haven’t yet factored in the proverbial elephant in the room that is the ongoing threat of tariffs and trade warfare. When we accept the true extent of economic volatility on the horizon, it becomes clear that Canada is in the midst of an economic emergency.

It’s one made considerably worse by the fact we have undermined our own bargaining power. The Conference Board of Canada has warned of a $6.9 billion reduction in real consumer spending in 2025, growing to $10.8 billion in 2026 — a consequence of both fewer workers, fewer people and a contracting market.

Understanding how we got here is critical. The absence of a national strategy for population and economic growth has left us vulnerable. The only way out is through a renewed focus on Canada’s competitiveness.

First, let’s radically improve our business climate so we can meaningfully diversify the Canadian economy and sharpen the tools in our economic toolbox. Trade wars may be a race to the bottom, but we can at least position ourselves as a stronger and more diversified, self-reliant economic competitor.

In 2023, Canada earned $152 billion from oil and gas exports to the United States, dwarfing all other sectors. Auto manufacturing, by comparison, only accounted for $51 billion worth of exports in 2023. We are doing ourselves a disservice by relying disproportionately on oil and gas exports at the expense of other industries, which can also be sources of innovation, investment and prosperity.

We also need to invest in a pro-growth agenda at lightning speed, attracting entrepreneurs and making it easier for large capital projects to set up shop in Canada and seize our early advantage in burgeoning industries such as artificial intelligence. Highly skilled immigrants are a key part of the equation, bringing entrepreneurial ambition and foreign investment capital with them. This pro-growth agenda must focus not only on attracting new businesses but retaining them for the long-term.

Second, let’s focus on talent.

With U.S. immigration tightening, Canada has a golden opportunity to attract workers — but only with a compelling pitch. Instead of vague promises, we must offer a clear vision: strong job prospects, affordability, accessible health care, and inclusive communities. This pitch should target highly skilled American workers facing growing uncertainty about their residency status, but also prioritize workers for industries where we have shortages such as construction, trades, green economy, and health care.

To win the war for talent, Canada must modernize its immigration points system to prioritize high-demand skills. And we must invest in housing, transit, health care and child care to ensure newcomers don’t just arrive, but stay.

These aren’t new solutions — experts have pushed for them for years. But the current threat of tariffs and trade warfare makes action not only more urgent than ever, but possible. This is a rare political moment where everyone’s attention is focused on Canada’s economic future. Whatever happens in the coming months, we should not look away from the threat.

For once, the political necessity to act is matched by the political will to act. So let’s seize this moment.

Source: Opinion | To successfully fight Trump, Canada needs one thing: more Canadians