ICYMI – Don Kerr: The Liberals utterly failed to control Canada’s population growth. Here’s what the next government can do better
2025/02/05 Leave a comment
Solid analysis but skimpy on what a population policy should look like:
…Although this estimate is preliminary and has yet to be finalized by Statistics Canada, this is likely close to what our population size would be if in fact the federal government meets its 2024 targets on both immigration and NPRs. In working with this estimate for Jan. 1st, 2025, this implies an annual population growth of about 780,000 persons in 2024, or a growth rate of 1.9 percent (see Figure 1). While down from the astronomical heights of 2023 (3.2 percent), this is still close to twice the historical norm for Canada.
In my view, it is almost an understatement to suggest that the federal government “opened the taps,” but then failed to close them quickly enough. As I have argued elsewhere, in policy terms, a steady, gradual upturn in population growth is far better for planning future labour force, housing, and infrastructure needs.
With this in mind, the government moving forward might be well advised to develop a population policy, in order to avoid this sort of situation in the future. The Canadian population would be well served by a government that could quickly accommodate unexpected challenges while maintaining a predictable and relatively stable rate of population growth.
