Has Canada overshot its mark in cutting international student enrolment? What the latest study permit data shows

2025/01/24 Leave a comment

But actual study permits finalized (new and renewals/extensions) shows a decline of 36 percent from 2023 full year to November 2024, or on target. So not overshooting if one includes all study permits, both new and renewals/extensions:

Ottawa issued 45 per cent fewer new study permits in 2024 according to the latest immigration data, a much steeper cut than it had planned when it unleashed policy changes a year ago to reduce international students in Canada.

The government’s measures were meant to primarily target post-secondary international students in what Immigration Minister Marc Miller has called “diploma mill” colleges, but the changes and messaging around its study permit scheme have had spillover impacts on all levels of studies.

Based on study permit processing and approval data from January through October 2024 — the peak of student intake — a new report by ApplyBoard projected Canada’s yearly study permit approvals would decline by 45 per cent from 2023, resulting in a maximum of just 280,000 admissions across all study levels from K-12 to postgraduate studies….

Source: Has Canada overshot its mark in cutting international student enrolment? What the latest study permit data shows

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‘Everything’s on the table,’ minister says about Canada’s response to Trump’s order on gender

2025/01/24 Leave a comment

Probably not:

Gender Equality Minister Marci Ien says that President Donald Trump’s executive order that the U.S. government will only recognize male and female genders from now on is “highly disturbing,” with worrying implications for members of the transgender community.

Ms. Ien said she will be meeting with Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly on Thursday to discuss how the order will affect Canada, including whether a travel advisory should be issued to warn gender-diverse Canadians planning to visit the United States.

The two ministers will also talk about whether Canada should create a special carve-out in the Safe Third Country Agreement with Washington, so that transgender asylum seekers who come to Canada’s border would not be automatically sent back to the U.S.

Asylum seekers coming to either Canada or the United States must make a refugee claim where they first arrive, but human-rights and refugee advocates argue that the U.S. can no longer be considered safe for trans people.

“Everything’s on the table,” Ms. Ien said in an interview. “Canada already opens its doors to 2SLGBTQI+ people who are fleeing aggression. Canada already does that, and I don’t see why we stop doing that. Did we ever think that the United States would be one of those countries? I don’t know about that. That’s new.”

Her remarks contrast with those of Immigration Minister Marc Miller, who in an interview on Tuesday said that despite Mr. Trump’s measures, he still regards the U.S. as a safe place under the agreement….

Source: ‘Everything’s on the table,’ minister says about Canada’s response to Trump’s order on gender

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Ottawa using AI to tackle Phoenix backlog as it tests replacement pay system

2025/01/24 Leave a comment

Needed. But again, a major part of the challenge is the multiple HR classifications, complex rules among other aspects, with major simplification and streamlining unlikely to be pursued as messy, time consuming and of little interest to the political level:

…Benay says AI is automating repetitive tasks, speeding up decision making and providing insights into human resources and pay data.

He says the government is testing the use of its AI assistant tool for three types of transactions – acting appointments, leave without pay and executive acting appointments – and is planning to launch automated “bulk processing” in these areas in April.

The government plans to expand AI-use to more transaction types over the course of next year, according to Benay, and could eventually use it to help with all types of cases, like departmental transfers and retirements.

There will always be an aspect of human verification, Benay says, as the tool was developed to keep humans in the loop.

“One thing we will not do is just turn it over to the AI machine,” says Benay.

The Government of Canada website says the backlog of transactions stood at 383,000 as of Dec. 31, 2024, with 52 per cent of those over a year old.

The government has said that it doesn’t want any backlog older than a year being transferred into a new system.

“A human only learns so fast, and the intake is continuing to come in,” Benay says. “The reason the AI work that we’re doing is so crucial is we have to increase (the) pace.”

Benay says the government has launched two boards that will oversee the use of AI and is looking at a third-party review of the AI virtual assistant tool over the course of the winter, with results to be published once it’s completed….

Source: Ottawa using AI to tackle Phoenix backlog as it tests replacement pay system

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How the modern Supreme Court might view the 14th Amendment and birthright citizenship

2025/01/24 Leave a comment

More good commentary:

…No current cases would support Trump’s position on birthright citizenship. Yet traces of his rhetoric about immigrants “invading” America surfaced last year in an opinion by US Appeals Court Judge James Ho that could, perhaps, eventually be used to advance the president’s stance.

In a concurring opinion in a dispute unrelated to birthright citizenship, Ho, a 2018 Trump appointee on the federal appellate court covering Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, was receptive to arguments that illegal immigration at the Texas border could constitute an “invasion.” That language could evoke an exception to the established 14th Amendment interpretation, for children of invading armies.

Judge Ho has often reinforced emerging conservative theories. Before joining the bench, however, he wrote an essay directly addressing birthright citizenship and said the 14th Amendment and Wong Kim Ark case protected children of undocumented immigrants.

“All three branches of our government – Congress, the courts, and the Executive Branch – agree that the Citizenship Clause applies to the children of aliens and citizens alike,” he said in a 2006 essay in The Green Bag.

Ho concluded with a warning if a move were made to withdraw birthright citizenship: “Stay tuned: Dred Scott II could be coming soon to a federal court near you.”

Chief Justice Roberts received no questions about the Wong Kim Ark case during his 2005 Senate confirmation hearings. But Dred Scott was raised, and Roberts responded by calling it, “perhaps the most egregious examples of judicial activism in our history … in which the Court went far beyond what was necessary to decide the case.”

“And really, I think historians would say that the Supreme Court tried to put itself in the position of resolving the dispute about the extension of slavery, and resolving it in a particular way that it thought was best for the Nation,” he added. “And we saw what disastrous consequences flowed from that.”

Since then, Roberts has also alluded to Dred Scott in terms of his own legacy.

“You wonder if you’re going to be John Marshall or you’re going to be Roger Taney,” he said in 2010, contrasting the great 19th century chief justice with the chief justice who wrote Dred Scott.

“The answer is, of course, you are certainly not going to be John Marshall,” Roberts said. “But you want to avoid the danger of being Roger Taney.”

Source: How the modern Supreme Court might view the 14th Amendment and birthright citizenship

Filed under Birthright Citizenship, Citizenship Tagged with ,

‘A cat-and-mouse game of epic proportions’: What Trump’s mass deportations and immigration enforcement mean to Canada

2025/01/23 Leave a comment

Will see extent to which this affects asylum claimants through monthly statistics…

In 2023, during the Biden administration, Canada and the U.S. updated the Safe Third Country Agreement to essentially ban anyone crossing anywhere along the land border from making asylum claims in the other country. The initial ban had applied only at the official ports of entry and prompted irregular migrants to sneak through unguarded entry points such as Roxham Road in Quebec.

Despite the expanded asylum ban and Ottawa’s new border surveillance and enforcement effort to appease Trump — who has threatened crippling tariffs on Canadian goods — desperate migrants won’t be deterred because they are not going to return to the Global South, said immigration lawyer Chantal Desloges.

The removal of legal pathways for migrants to seek protection in the U.S. — suspending the refugee resettlement program and shutting down the app for migrants to make an appointment to legally enter the U.S. for asylum — won’t help, she noted.

“This is going to feed human smugglers and it’s going to make people take risks,” said Desloges. “More people are going to die when attempting these crossings.”

While it’s yet to be seen whether the White House can secure the funding to build 100,000 additional detention beds and how it will boost enforcement, refugee lawyer Adam Sadinsky said Trump’s rhetoric about the planned raids in major metropolitan areas and holding migrants in jail for the maximum time is enough to instil fear among migrants in the U.S.

“All of this language is used to make America look as inhospitable to refugees as possible,” said Sadinsky, a spokesperson for the Canadian Association of Refugee Lawyers.

“Our government is maybe falling into the same sort of rhetoric that refugees are a burden and a problem and something we need to protect against rather than a population that we need to protect.”

There’s a provision in the revised Safe Third Country Agreement that allows irregular migrants to seek asylum in Canada or the U.S. if they managed to cross an unguarded land border and remain undetected for 14 days — a clause that Ottawa is said to want to remove from the deal, to tighten asylum eligibility and reduce refugee backlogs.

However, critics said it’s not a real solution because it would simply move the backlog from the refugee board to the Immigration Department, which would be required to assess if potential deportees are safe to be sent back to their country of origin or to the U.S. However, Ottawa announced just this week it will cut 3,300 immigration staff.

“We are going to see a cat-and-mouse game of epic proportions between asylum seekers trying to sneak in and border agents trying to keep them out,” said refugee lawyer Max Berger. “If scrapped, it will not deter asylum seekers from sneaking to avoid deportation from the U.S. … but just drive them further underground.”

On Tuesday, Public Safety Minister David McGuinty said that so far, Canada hasn’t seen any increase in the number of irregular migrants, but officials are monitoring it closely. He also cautioned that anyone considering crossing Canada’s border illegally would be putting themselves at risk.

“One of the messages we’re imparting to folks who are in the United States is it’s illegal to cross between border crossings,” he said. “It’s also unsafe.”

Source: ‘A cat-and-mouse game of epic proportions’: What Trump’s mass deportations and immigration enforcement mean to Canada

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Tasha Kheiriddin: Trump’s agenda poses risks for Canada far beyond tariffs [DEI]

2025/01/23 Leave a comment

Likely one of the lessor risks compared to many other executive orders and probably overstated. Canadians pursuing economic opportunities in the USA have more pressing reasons to do so than DEI:

…The second impact will come from the death of DEI. Even prior to Trump’s return to office, American companies were dumping DEI in droves: Amazon, Meta, Walmart, McDonald’s, Boeing, Ford and John Deere all scrapped their programs in the last six months. On Monday, Trump revoked all “radical and wasteful” federal DEI programs by executive order.

This will affect Canadian companies in several ways. American parent companies may feel pressured to dump DEI policies in their Canadian subsidiaries, so as not to run afoul of the new American ethos, and to remain competitive.

Trump could also turn these policies into a bargaining chip in his trade and tariff negotiations. And they could spur a new brain drain: Canadian talent who want to operate in a non-DEI environment may choose to head south, where they will have greater opportunities for advancement….

Source: Tasha Kheiriddin: Trump’s agenda poses risks for Canada far beyond tariffs

Trump administration puts federal diversity, equity and inclusion staff on leave

The Trump administration is moving to put employees in federal diversity, equity and inclusion programs on paid leave by 5 p.m. Wednesday.

The move, which calls for agencies to develop a “reduction-in-force action” against the employees, comes after Trump signed executive orders ending DEI programs in the federal government.

In one of the orders, entitled “Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing,” Trump accused former President Joe Biden of encouraging discrimination in “virtually all aspects of the federal government” by promoting diversity programs….

Source: Trump administration puts federal diversity, equity and inclusion staff on leave

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Change to Birthright Citizenship Would Affect Visa Holders, Too

2025/01/23 Leave a comment

One of the better overviews, covering the politics, legal aspects and operational practicalities (some familiar to Canadian issues under the Conservative government in 2012):

President Trump’s executive order on birthright citizenship declares that babies born to many temporary residents of the United States — not just those in the country illegally — must be denied automatic citizenship, a dramatic rejection of rights that have been part of the Constitution for more than 150 years.

If the courts do not block the order, babies born to women living legally, but temporarily, in the United States — such as people studying on a student visa or workers hired by high-tech companies — will not automatically be recognized by the federal government as U.S. citizens if the father is also not a permanent resident.

Aides to Mr. Trump had told reporters on Monday morning that the order would apply to “children of illegal aliens born in the United States.” In fact, the language in the order Mr. Trump signed, titled “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship,” goes much further.

“It’s a shocking attack on people in this country who are here lawfully, played by the rules and are benefiting the country,” said David Leopold, the chair of the immigration practice at the law firm UB Greensfelder. “We’re talking about people who are doing cutting-edge research in the United States, researchers, people who are here to help us.”

The order was part of a barrage of actions that Mr. Trump authorized on Monday to carry out his vision of a country with far less immigration. Despite claims he repeated on Monday that “I’m fine with legal immigration; I like it,” the president’s new orders would also severely curtail the options of those looking to enter the United States legally.

Many of the president’s closest advisers, including Stephen Miller, his deputy chief of staff and the architect of his immigration policy, have urged a tough line on birthright citizenship. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Miller and other aides pushed to make sure that immigrants could no longer establish what they call an “anchor” in the United States by having a baby who automatically becomes an American citizen.

In addition to targeting birthright citizenship, Mr. Trump on Monday barred asylum for immigrants seeking to cross the southern border, imposed an indefinite suspension of the legal refugee system, terminated several legal pathways for immigrants put in place by the Biden administration and declared the existence of an “invasion” from immigrants aimed at giving the federal government broad powers to stop all kinds of people from entering.

The executive order regarding birthright citizenship says that right will be denied for babies born to parents who are not citizens or permanent residents with green cards, including women who are “visiting on a student, work or tourist visa” if the father is not a citizen or a legal permanent resident. In that case, the order says, “no department or agency of the United States government shall issue documents recognizing United States citizenship.”

There are serious questions about how Mr. Trump’s administration would impose such a dramatic change in policy.

Currently, the citizenship of babies born in the United States is documented in a two-step process.

First, the state or territorial government will issue a birth certificate confirming where and when the birth took place. The birth certificate does not include any information about the immigration status of the baby’s parents.

Second, when that baby (or the parents, on the child’s behalf) applies for a passport, the birth certificate showing that the baby was born on U.S. soil is enough to prove citizenship. No other documentation is required.

Mr. Trump’s executive order indicates that in 30 days, all federal agencies will be required to confirm the immigration status of the parents before issuing documents like a passport.

Left unclear, however, is how that would be put into practice.

One option would be for state agencies to check the immigration status of parents and include that information on birth certificates. Then, when passports are requested, the federal government would be able to determine which babies qualify for automatic citizenship.

It could take years, however, for states to put in place a system that checks the immigration status of all parents — assuming they are willing to do so. The federal government could establish guidelines for the required information, but it would most likely be up to the states to decide how and whether to gather that data from parents when they issue a birth certificate.

If the states do not overhaul the birth certificate process, the federal government could seek to enforce Mr. Trump’s order by requiring people applying for passports to present both a birth certificate and proof of their parents’ citizenship status when they were born.

That could become extremely cumbersome, legal experts said, particularly for people with complicated family dynamics or missing legal documents.

Several White House officials did not respond to questions seeking clarification about how the order might be carried out.

Legal scholars and immigration advocates said on Tuesday that they were stunned by the breadth of the order.

Advocates are hoping that judges will step in and put it on hold before it is set to take effect on Feb. 20. The American Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit in federal court in New Hampshire on Monday night challenging the order, just hours after the president signed it.

And on Tuesday, attorneys general from 22 states and two cities sued Mr. Trump to block the executive order. Rulings by either judge could temporarily suspend the order, prompting what could be a monthslong legal battle that could end up before the Supreme Court.

“It’s very clear that they mean to double down on their nativistic anti-immigrant agenda, and that denying citizenship to children born in the U.S. has got to be a core part of their plan,” said Anthony Romero, the executive director of the A.C.L.U. “If we were to repeal birthright citizenship, it would create a legal vehicle for intergenerational stigma and discrimination that would undo the very core of this grand American experiment.”

Birthright citizenship in the United States was put in place after the Civil War to allow Black people to be citizens. The 14th Amendment says that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.” Before the amendment was ratified in 1868, even free Black men and women could not become citizens.

Mr. Trump argues that his administration is within its rights to interpret what the writers of the amendment meant.

“The 14th Amendment has never been interpreted to extend citizenship universally to everyone born within the United States,” his executive order said.

Many lawyers say that is flatly wrong. In their legal brief, the A.C.L.U.’s lawyers argued that the meaning of the 14th Amendment had been settled law for more than 125 years. They cited an 1898 case called United States v. Wong Kim Ark, in which they said the Supreme Court “emphatically rejected the last effort to undercut birthright citizenship.”

“The executive order is certainly unconstitutional,” said Cecillia Wang, the A.C.L.U.’s national legal director. “It’s fair to say that if the court were to uphold Trump’s birthright citizenship executive order, it would lose all legitimacy in the eyes of the people and in the history books.”…

Source: Change to Birthright Citizenship Would Affect Visa Holders, Too

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$4.1 million fines for violations of Canada’s temporary foreign worker program a ‘drop in the bucket’

2025/01/23 Leave a comment

Of note, an increase but still small number:

The federal government issued more than $4.1 million in penalties to employers violating the rules of the temporary foreign worker program in 2024, according to data from Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada. This is a 55 per cent increase from the $2.67 million handed out in 2023.

Ottawa levied 154 fines against non-compliant companies over the last calendar year, averaging $26,917 per decision, according to the Star’s analysis of the data — almost double the $13,917 average in 2023.

Use of the temporary foreign worker program by Canadian businesses has surged in recent years, particularly in low-wage sectors like construction and hospitality. Along with the increase, there have also been growing allegations of worker exploitation and abuse.

A Toronto Star investigation into the program’s application process found that in January 2022, the government directed staff to implement “streamlining measures” when evaluating the legitimacy of applications by employers seeking temporary foreign workers. Routine checks meant to ensure the system is not abused by unscrupulous employers were suspended in an effort to process applications faster.

“Workers in Canada deserve and expect to feel safe and protected in the workplace. That’s why we’re taking steps to further protect temporary foreign workers and hold bad actors accountable,” said Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon in a statement last week.

From April to September, Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) — responsible for processing applications for temporary foreign workers — said it conducted 649 employer compliance inspections. Of these, 11 per cent were found to be non-compliant. 

Inspections in this six month period also resulted in 20 employers being banned from the temporary foreign worker program, a fivefold increase compared to the same time the previous year, ESDC said.

“Eleven per cent — one in 10 companies misusing the program — is extremely high,” said Catherine Connelly, a professor at McMaster University’s DeGroote School of Business, and an expert on the temporary foreign worker program.

The government’s data underscores the need for stronger oversight of the program and for more investigations and greater deterrents than current fines, Connelly says, noting that several employers remain listed as having an “unpaid monetary penalty.”

Source: $4.1 million fines for violations of Canada’s temporary foreign worker program a ‘drop in the bucket’

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Seuils d’immigration et logement | Les fonctionnaires d’Immigration Canada ont sonné l’alarme dès 2022

2025/01/23 Leave a comment

Although not new (see Ottawa was warned two years ago high immigration could affect housing costs, documents show), bears repeating:

« En tant que responsables de la gestion de l’immigration, les décideurs politiques doivent être conscients du désalignement entre la croissance démographique et l’offre de logements, ainsi que de la manière dont l’immigration permanente et temporaire influence la croissance démographique », relève Matthew Saayman, analyste en politiques au ministère Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada, dans un document coécrit avec ses collègues chercheurs au même ministère, Sébastien Vachon et Dan Hiebert (ce dernier à titre d’universitaire en résidence).

Intitulé Population Growth and Housing Supply (en français, « Croissance démographique et offre de logements »), ce document a été rendu public après une demande d’accès à l’information de Richard Kurland, un avocat spécialisé en droit de l’immigration en Colombie-Britannique.

La croissance rapide du nombre d’arrivants, « en particulier des étudiants internationaux, n’a pas été anticipée et les modèles n’ont pas été ajustés assez rapidement pour prendre en compte ces nouvelles tendances », peut-on aussi lire dans l’étude.

Les auteurs précisent que « les indicateurs du marché immobilier montrent à quel point le Canada se classe parmi les pires de ses pairs. Entre 2005 et le quatrième trimestre 2021, le ratio entre les prix des logements et les revenus des ménages au Canada a augmenté de 163 %, la hausse la plus importante parmi les pays du G7, indiquant que le logement est devenu moins abordable ».

Au surplus, insistent les fonctionnaires, « la demande [en logements] pourrait être sous-estimée : la taille moyenne des ménages canadiens a diminué au cours du siècle dernier. En général, cela a entraîné une augmentation de la demande de logements par habitant au Canada ».

Aussi, « l’offre pourrait être surestimée : il y a eu une augmentation du nombre de logements qui ne sont pas réellement occupés ».

Dans quelle mesure la crise du logement affecte-t-elle la réputation du Canada quand une personne se cherche un pays d’accueil ?

L’étude ne s’attarde pas trop sur cette question, mais souligne tout de même à quel point l’accession à la propriété d’un nouvel arrivant est considérée comme un « jalon important dans son établissement et son intégration au Canada ».

Les nouveaux arrivants « recherchent des logements dans toute la gamme des prix, des unités locatives les plus abordables jusqu’aux maisons de luxe les plus chères. Pratiquement tous les segments du marché sont affectés ».

Dans les échanges de courriel aussi obtenus par une demande d’accès à l’information, il est mentionné que le document sera aussi envoyé à la Société canadienne d’hypothèques et de logement.

Les seuils revus à la baisse

Me Richard Kurland indique qu’il lui a fallu beaucoup de temps pour obtenir sa réponse à sa demande d’accès à l’information et ainsi recevoir le rapport et les échanges de courriels entre fonctionnaires.

Selon lui, ces documents démontrent que « les fonctionnaires étaient au fait de la crise du logement causée par Immigration [Canada]. Ils ont servi des avertissements, qui ont été ignorés. Un mea culpa d’un ministre ne va pas diminuer le coût des loyers ni enlever le mal qui a été causé aux familles canadiennes ».

Le nombre d’immigrants a continué de croître après 2022, donnant lieu à un bras de fer entre Justin Trudeau et les premiers ministres des provinces, notamment François Legault.

En avril 2024, Justin Trudeau a fini par admettre que l’immigration temporaire des dernières années avait atteint un rythme « bien supérieur à ce que le Canada a été en mesure d’absorber » (la « capacité d’absorption » étant précisément le thème abordé en 2022 par les analystes d’Immigration Canada).

Ce n’est qu’en octobre 2024 que le gouvernement Trudeau a consenti à revoir ses seuils d’immigration à la baisse.

À partir de 2025, le nombre de résidents permanents acceptés au pays passera de 485 000 en 2024 à 395 000 en 2025.

En plus d’accentuer la crise du logement, l’arrivée massive d’immigrants s’est fait sentir dans les écoles, entre autres sur l’île de Montréal.

Selon le bilan démographique de l’Institut de la statistique du Québec publié jeudi, Montréal a accueilli 91 300 personnes supplémentaires entre 2023 et 2024, soit une augmentation de 4,2 %. Ce taux représente la plus forte croissance jamais enregistrée pour une région du Québec.

Source: Seuils d’immigration et logement | Les fonctionnaires d’Immigration Canada ont sonné l’alarme dès 2022

“As immigration managers, policymakers must be aware of the misalignment between population growth and housing supply, as well as how permanent and temporary immigration affects population growth,” notes Matthew Saayman, a policy analyst at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, in a document co-written with fellow researchers at the same department, Sébastien Vachon and Dan Hiebert (the latter as an academic in residence).

Entitled Population Growth and Housing Supply, this document was made public after a request for access to information from Richard Kurland, a lawyer specializing in immigration law in British Columbia.

The rapid growth in the number of arrivals, “especially international students, has not been anticipated and the models have not been adjusted quickly enough to take into account these new trends,” we can also read in the study.

The authors state that “the real estate market indicators show how much Canada ranks among its worst peers. Between 2005 and the fourth quarter of 2021, the ratio between housing prices and household incomes in Canada increased by 163%, the largest increase among G7 countries, indicating that housing has become less affordable.”

Moreover, officials insist, “demand [for housing] could be underestimated: the average size of Canadian households has decreased over the last century. In general, this has led to an increase in the demand for housing per capita in Canada.”

Also, “the supply could be overestimated: there has been an increase in the number of homes that are not really occupied”.

To what extent does the housing crisis affect Canada’s reputation when a person is looking for a host country?

The study does not dwell too much on this issue, but nevertheless underlines the extent to which the ownership of a newcomer is considered an “important milestone in his establishment and integration in Canada”.

Newcomers “look for housing in the full range of prices, from the most affordable rental units to the most expensive luxury homes. Virtually all market segments are affected.”

In email exchanges also obtained by a request for access to information, it is mentioned that the document will also be sent to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Thresholds revised downwards

Richard Kurland indicates that it took him a long time to get his response to his request for access to information and thus receive the report and the exchanges of emails between officials.

According to him, these documents show that “civil servants were awere of the housing crisis caused by Immigration [Canada]. They served warnings, which were ignored. A mea culpa by a minister will not reduce the cost of rents or remove the harm that has been caused to Canadian families.”

The number of immigrants continued to grow after 2022, giving rise to a tug-of-war between Justin Trudeau and provincial prime ministers, including François Legault.

In April 2024, Justin Trudeau finally admitted that temporary immigration in recent years had reached a pace “much higher than what Canada was able to absorb” (the “absorption capacity” being precisely the theme addressed in 2022 by Immigration Canada analysts).

It was only in October 2024 that the Trudeau government agreed to revise its immigration thresholds downwards.

From 2025, the number of permanent residents accepted in the country will increase from 485,000 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025.

In addition to exacerbating the housing crisis, the massive arrival of immigrants was felt in schools, including on the island of Montreal.

According to the demographic assessment of the Institut de la statistique du Québec published on Thursday, Montreal welcomed an additional 91,300 people between 2023 and 2024, an increase of 4.2%. This rate represents the highest growth ever recorded for a region of Quebec.

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Trump’s executive orders on immigration could prompt rise in asylum claims in Canada, experts say

2025/01/22 Leave a comment

Changes do raise question regarding underlying premise of Safe Third Country Agreement along with specific implications for non-binary and trans persons. Monthly asylum claims data will provide confirmation or not, as well as extent:

U.S. President Donald Trump’s raft of policy changes on his first day in office, including rolling back rights of transgender people and ending citizenship as a birthright in the United States, are expected to lead to a rise in claims for asylum in Canada, immigration experts say.

He signed a suite of executive orders on Monday evening tightening up immigration rules, including to bolster the U.S.’s southern border. The White House confirmed that he plans to suspend refugee resettlement in the U.S., end asylum for illegal border crossers, and enhance vetting and screening of foreign nationals.

Among the slew of executive orders is one reversing a policy that means anyone born in the U.S. automatically becomes an American citizen. Citizenship as a birthright is guaranteed by a constitutional amendment and is one of the measures in the President’s program expected to prompt legal challenges. Speaking to reporters as he signed the orders Monday evening, the President said he thought the orders would withstand such challenges.

Canadian immigration lawyer Yameena Ansari said the change to the birthright rule, if implemented, would mean that some children born to immigrants in the U.S. may be stateless, which she said breached international law. She predicted that such a policy could lead to more minors turning up at the Canadian border to seek a safe haven.

“Trump is breaching the U.S.’s own international-rights commitments by making large swaths of the population stateless,” she said.

In his inaugural address on Monday, Mr. Trump said the U.S. government would also adopt a policy of recognizing only male and female genders. He signed an executive order on Monday night effectively reversing the gender-related policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

In 2022, the Biden administration permitted U.S. citizens to select a gender-neutral “X” on passports.

Mr. Trump is expected to direct the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security to ensure that official government documents, including passports and visas, only recognize twogenders.

Canadian immigration lawyer David Garson said since Mr. Trump’s election victory he has received multiple inquiries from non-binary and transgender Americans, as well as U.S. parents of transgender children, about moving to Canada.

He said the policy changes are likely to spark more asylum claims at the Canadian border from anxious people, including transgender U.S. citizens fearful of infringement of their rights. He also predicted an increase in asylum claims from pregnant, undocumented migrants who fear not just deportation, but that their child could be stateless if born in the U.S.

Mr. Trump’s executive orders would mean “more people coming to Canada or the Canadian border over all,” Mr. Garson said.

Executive orders rolling back transgender rights and further tightening up asylum in the U.S. could also have an impact on its Safe Third Country Agreement with Canada, experts predict.

Under the agreement, most foreign nationals claiming asylum at the border are automatically returned to the U.S., but immigration experts say Mr. Trump’s policies may lead to a reassessment of whether the U.S. is now safe for particular groups.

The changes in the U.S. could lead to the consideration of more “carve-outs,” meaning that some groups – as currently with unaccompanied minors – are not sent back to the U.S.

Immigration lawyer Maureen Silcoff said that under refugee law, Canada has an obligation to consider whether there are marked differences between Canadian and American standards of protection.

“Legally speaking. it could mean that the Governor in Council might decide to de-designate the U.S. as a safe third country,” she said….

Source: Trump’s executive orders on immigration could prompt rise in asylum claims in Canada, experts say

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