How Canada’s study permit cap will change where international students are coming from
2024/02/24 2 Comments
We shall see in the next few months through web, application and study permits issued data. To a certain extent, depending whether Ontario cracks down on the private colleges and public satellite colleges (where most of the abuse is), the effect on India may be relatively greater than for some other countries:
Canada’s new restrictions on study permits will change colleges’ and universities’ admission strategy, blunting the country’s recent effort to diversify its international student body, experts warn.
Canada has sought to bring in students from a host of countries to avoid having all its eggs in one basket should relations with one particular nation suddenly deteriorate. It has also been part of an effort to enrich the learning experience on campuses by bringing in diverse perspectives.
With the federal government reducing incoming international student intake by 35 per cent this year, post-secondary institutions, especially those in Ontario, are going to bet on recruiting students from countries with high study permit approval rates historically, to ensure admitted students can come, fill the class and pay tuition fees.
“Whoever colleges and universities are giving their letter of acceptance to, they are going to get the maximum enrolment and tuition dollar,” said immigration lawyer Zeynab Ziaie, whose firm handles a high international student caseload.
“The ways to minimize risk would be to, for the most part, avoid countries that are going to be typically high-risk.”
Under the cap, Ottawa will only process a limited number of study permit applications from institutions in each province. If an application is refused because officials don’t believe the applicant is genuine or has enough money to complete the study, that potential enrolment spot will be wasted.
Those high-risk applications are primarily from African countries, which have also seen the fastest international enrolment growth in Canada in recent years.
Immigration department data obtained by ApplyBoard showed Indian and Chinese students, accounted for 41 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, of the one million study permit holders in Canada in 2023.
For years, the Canadian government as well as colleges and universities have invested in diversifying where students are coming from to lower the risks of suddenly losing enrolments due to geopolitical events, such as during Canada’s diplomatic spats with Saudi Arabia in 2018 and India in 2023….
Source: How Canada’s study permit cap will change where international students are coming from

The source countries are already highly concentrated. It may become more diverse because of the other measures, such as no work permits for spouses, no PGWP for ppp students, and increased financial requirements
Perhaps going out on a limb but I would expect Indian students to decline given their preponderance in private colleges and satellite campuses. Will be tracking