Canada’s ‘leaky bucket’ of immigration? More newcomers are choosing to leave Canada for greener pastures

Flip side of immigration levels, the number of immigrants leaving. Important new analysis:

More recent immigrants are leaving Canada for greener pastures, a new study says.

The findings suggest the phenomenon is especially prevalent between four and seven years after newcomers have received their permanent residence.

Although the number and ratio of people leaving each year varied, over the course of 25 years, accumulatively about 20 per cent of immigrants in each cohort ultimately left Canada, said the report, “The Leaky Bucket: A Study of Immigrant Retention Trends in Canada.”

However, the so-called onward migration rate spiked to 31 per cent in 2019 when 67,000 departures were reported.

“While the fairy tale of Canada as a land of opportunity still holds for many newcomers, this study points to burgeoning disillusionment,” said the report released Tuesday by the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC) and the Conference Board of Canada.

“After giving Canada a try, growing numbers of immigrants are saying ‘no thanks,’ and moving on.”

As Canadians turn their attention to the number of immigrants welcomed to Canada amid worries over housing costs, access to health care and other government services, the report sheds light on what researchers call “onward migration,” where people leave their home country, settle in a second and then move again.

Based on the 2021 longitudinal immigration database, which links immigration data with tax data, the study tracks immigrants’ departures by using their lack of fiscal activity, such as income, as a proxy for an individual’s presence or absence in Canada.

Those included in the study were granted permanent residence between 1982 and 2018, and must have been at least 18 years of age when they came to Canada and filed income taxes here at least once since their arrival.

Averaging across each of the 1982-2018 cohorts, it found that onward migration in the first year sits just below the average annual rate of 0.9 per cent. However, the rate rises quickly and peaks around year five, with an average of 1.33 per cent of the arrival cohort leaving that year. It then declines steadily, falling back below 0.9 per cent by year 11.

However, the annual first-year onward migration rate spiked from 0.8 per cent in 2016 to 1.18 per cent in 2019, representing a significant surge compared to the average 0.9 per cent.

“The trend has been toward an increased onward migration rate,” said 18-page report. “More recent cohorts have sustained elevated onward migration rates for a greater number of years. This has led to higher cumulative onward migration for recently arrived cohorts.”

The extent of onward migration does ebb and flow. Over a 15-year period, those who arrived in the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the ones who came in 2004 — the last cohort where the 15-year post-arrival data was available — all had a higher rate of departures.

The average cumulative onward migration rate, for example, was 18 per cent for cohorts who arrived in the 1980s, compared to the 21 per cent among those who were granted permanent residence in the first half of the 1990s.

The report findings are in line with a conservative estimate by Statistics Canada that found 15 to 20 per cent of immigrants leave the country within 10 years after arrival and a recent Star story that found more recent immigrants are contemplating leaving.

Generally speaking, said the ICC and Conference Board report, the benefits of immigration can only be realized over time, when newcomers stay, thrive and contribute to the country.

“Retention should be a key performance indicator for Canada’s immigration strategy, given the central role that immigration is meant to play in supporting population and economic growth,” it said.

Researchers agreed the longitudinal immigration database is not perfect, because it wasn’t designed to measure onward migration and may not capture those who don’t file income taxes for whatever reason and who are not linked properly with the tax data.

There could be many reasons why newcomers choose to leave Canada, whether it’s due to challenges they face in their economic integration, their lack of sense of belonging, opportunities arising in other countries or even individual or family preferences.

“Many of these are beyond the control of Canadian policymakers,” the report said. “But policymakers can influence immigrants’ experiences in Canada.”

It recommends the federal government closely monitor onward migration among newcomers, invest in settlement services and programs to support immigrant integration, help employers hire and retain immigrant workers, and put money in infrastructure to meet population growth.

Source: Canada’s ‘leaky bucket’ of immigration? More newcomers are choosing to leave Canada for greener pastures