Updated Citizenship Statistics: Different Numbers, Same Trend

Further to my presentation at Metropolis in March and the media and other commentary the citizenship statistics generated, CIC has provided updated numbers for the full 2014 year, in contrast to the January-October numbers I used.

CIC was also able, for landing years 2005-8, separate out the take-up percentages six years after landing, to provide a more consistent measure (each additional year automatically means more citizens).

But while the number and slope of the curve have changed, the trend of a decline has not.

A longer time series for six years after landing would of course be preferable.

Again, the main reasons for the decline:

• the processing difficulties and backlog in citizenship processing (currently being addressed so this should be a one-time occurrence, and the difference between the October and full year numbers suggests that is the case);
• the more difficult citizenship test and higher failure rates (although 2014 January-September numbers show an increase in the overall pass rates to 90.5 percent from an average overall pass rate of 82.7 percent during 2010-13);
• more rigorous language assessment; and,
• anti-fraud and misrepresentation measures, including the residency questionnaire, leading to longer processing times.