Policy making suffering in Canada without the long-form census

Unfortunately, the Government will not take advice to reinstate the Census:

Perhaps the biggest casualty of the switch to the new survey is the ability to analyze trends over time – among the most critical components of any research tool. The household survey and the long-form census are so different that we are no longer able to compare different periods in a statistically rigorous way.

We see nothing wrong in requiring Canadians by law to complete a survey as important as this one. Even in the U.S., where trust in government is not exactly high, the American Community Survey is mandatory. The authorities have reasoned – and few citizens have objected – that a mandatory response is the only way to ensure adequate data quality.

If the government in Ottawa can be persuaded to bring back the mandatory long-form survey for the next census, due in 2016, we will have a gap of 10 years since the last such exercise.

That may not be ideal, but it would be acceptable. The full census was conducted at 10-year intervals prior to the introduction of the current five-year cycle in 1986. Indeed, a 10-year break would be less disruptive than continuing with the new household survey, which leaves us with a complete break in historical data.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said recently that “you can’t manage what you can’t measure.” His comments were made in the context of child and maternal health, but they apply equally to other areas of policy making, and drive better performance in business planning and economic analysis.

My experience in working with the NHS and in talking to those more experienced than me, confirms these weaknesses of the NHS compared to the Census.

A short-sighted and ideological move that weakens evidence-based policy for governments and needed information for business decisions.

Policy making suffering in Canada without the long-form census – The Globe and Mail.