Could Alberta pass Quebec to become the second-largest province? – Macleans.ca

From the latest Statistics Canada population projections for the next 25 years:

The Atlantic provinces aren’t likely to fare well. The population in Newfoundland is likely to drop over the next 25 years. P.E.I. should continue to grow, but most of the growth scenarios StatsCan ran on New Brunswick and Nova Scotia showed the provinces shrinking by 2038.

Under every growth scenario, Ontario will remain the country’s largest province, driven largely by immigration.

Quebec’s population would grow over the next 25 years under all the scenarios, with most of the gains coming from immigration, but because its rate of growth is almost certain to come in lower than the Canadian average, its demographic weight, or share of the total Canadian population, will slide.

Under most scenarios, Alberta’s population will surpass that of British Columbia by 2038. It’ll be the youngest population, too, with the lowest proportion of seniors in the country.

Jason Kirby’s unscientific projections show Alberta’s population possibly becoming larger than Quebec’s some time in the early 2050s.

Economically, this shift will happen sooner:

But population growth is one thing. When people talk about provincial rankings, there’s a good chance they’re referring to the size of their economies, as opposed to how many folks live where. It’s certainly the metric any politician boasts about first, come election time. So, to take our Quebec-Alberta match to the next level, here’s another look into the future, this time using 10-year GDP growth rates. Will Alberta’s economy overtake that of Quebec? Barring some pretty massive changes in provincial fates, that could happen as early as 2016, some three decades before Alberta’s population ever catches up to Quebec’s—which pretty much says everything you need to know about how grim the economy is in la belle province.

Could Alberta pass Quebec to become the second-largest province? – Macleans.ca.