USA: The Right-Wing Dream of ‘Self-Deportation’

Of interest:

In his presidential campaign, Donald Trump has doubled down on bashing migrants crossing the southern border. They are criminals who are “poisoning the blood of our country,” he says. The Republican National Convention was full of talk of surging “migrant crime,” even though such a rise does not exist

The number of Americans who think the immigration level is too high has sharply risen since the last presidential contest in 2020, and as Americans move to the right on the issue, Trump plans to go much further than President Biden’s executive order in June, which closes the border when crossings surge. Trump has said he would build “vast holding facilities” — detention camps — to lock people up as their cases progress; end birthright citizenship, even though the Constitution protects it; and bring back a version of the travel ban from his first term, which barred visitors from several mostly Muslim countries. Another Trump promise, mass deportations, hasn’t been tried since the 1950s; now, polls show majority support for it, including among Latinos.

But there is one anti-immigration proposal on the right that Trump doesn’t talk about publicly. It’s a spin on “self-deportation.” The term — for provoking immigrants to leave of their own volition — has gone out of fashion but the idea continues to lurk. This time, instead of directly pressuring undocumented adults to flee, some immigration opponents are threatening access to school for their children. It’s a nuclear option — requiring the reversal of a Supreme Court ruling that has been a linchpin of educational rights for four decades — that some of Trump’s allies on the right are quietly building support for.

In February, the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing Washington think tank that’s become central to mapping out policy objectives for the next Republican administration, recommended requiring public schools to collect data on immigration status when students enroll. Heritage also said schools should charge tuition for children who are undocumented or who have a parent who lacks legal status.

About 600,000 undocumented children live in the country, and another 4.5 million have a parent who is here illegally. To ensure that parents can send their children to school without fear of immigration agents, the Biden administration declared in 2021 that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement could take no actions of any kind at schools and other locations where young people gather, like universities and day care centers. It’s easy to see why schools are such a sensitive site of immigration enforcement. Barring children from the classroom punishes them for their parents’ decisions and disrupts families’ daily rhythm. Most searingly, perhaps, it undermines the hope of bettering the lives of the next generation — a reason for coming to the United States in the first place.

It has always been difficult to deter people from migrating to the United States, given instability in their home countries and the lure of economic opportunity at American businesses that depend on cheap labor. But there is a grim logic to the strategy of keeping children out of school in the United States — that if you go so far as to take away a right fundamental to the American dream, people will leave.

The Long Shadow of Prop. 187

During the 2012 presidential campaign, the Republican Mitt Romney was roundly mocked for saying that the solution for illegal immigration was to encourage people to “self-deport” rather than for the government to remove them. Newt Gingrich, the former Republican House speaker, called the idea a “fantasy.” Trump, then the host of “The Apprentice,” called the notion “crazy” and claimed it cost Romney the Latino vote — and the election.

But the concept is an old one, dating back to at least the 19th century. In 1882, Congress passed the Chinese Exclusion Act, the first law to bar the entry of workers based on their nationality. For decades afterward, people in segregated Chinatowns lived in the shadows, shuttering businesses, ducking corrupt immigration officers and hiding from mobs. “From 1890 to 1920, a period of mass migration from all over the world, the Chinese population in the United States declined by more than 40 percent,” the historian Adam Goodman wrote in his journal article “The Long History of Self-Deportation.”

A century later, states introduced policies designed to motivate immigrants to move elsewhere. Proposition 187, a proposal to bar undocumented people from using social services, including public health care and education, went on the ballot in California in 1994. A satirical group, Hispanics Against Liberal Take Over, started calling for the self-deportation of all undocumented immigrants in joke ads during the campaign.

Within days after Prop. 187 passed, a federal judge found the law unconstitutional and prevented it from going into effect. Nonetheless, researchers saw immediate, measurable impacts. One study showed that undocumented patients in California with tuberculosis were far more likely to delay seeking care. “Life as an undocumented immigrant is so delicate when it comes to interacting with public institutions,” said Tom K. Wong, a political science professor and founding director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Center at the University of California, San Diego. “The chilling effects are broad.”

The results of Prop. 187 drew the interest of Kris Kobach, then a law professor who pushed for states to play a greater role in immigration enforcement. In 2008, Kobach published an influentialarticle titled “Attrition Through Enforcement” that praised a new Arizona law requiring employers to verify the legal status of workers. He argued that while most “garden-variety illegal aliens” could easily live and work in the United States, they began “self-deporting by the thousands” from Arizona. As a result, Kobach noted, costs dropped for Arizona public schools. He acknowledged that some people were moving to neighboring states but claimed that many returned to Mexico.

In 2011, Kobach became Kansas’ secretary of state. Because of his legal expertise, he was tapped to help write an Alabama bill with the harshest set of immigration restrictions in the country at the time. The law included a mandate that schools collect data on citizenship and immigration status when students enroll, as Heritage now proposes. The Monday after the Alabama bill passed, school officials reported, thousands of students didn’t attend school. Absentee rates remained high. Families fled the state. “It was like a disease,” the owner of a grocery store in Albertville toldNBC News. “Everyone was panicking and leaving.”

Kobach celebrated. “It’s self-deportation at no cost to the taxpayer,” he said.

Though other parts of Alabama’s law were enforced for a time, after only a few weeks, a federal appeals court blocked the provision that required schools to ask about students’ immigration status. This ruling rested on a Supreme Court decision from 1982, Plyler v. Doe, a high-water mark for judicial protection of civil rights. Plyler isn’t nearly as famous as Brown v. Board of Education, the 1954 case that called for the desegregation of public schools. But in the current political landscape, Plyler is both increasingly significant and increasingly vulnerable.

The case began in 1977, when Tyler Independent School District in Texas expelled dozens of undocumented children after the state cut funding for those students. Alfredo Lopez, who was 10 at the time, was one of the students sent home. His family joined four others who sued the state. They went to their first court hearing with their car packed, ready to flee if immigration agents forced them to do so.

But the families won in the lower courts. Texas appealed to the Supreme Court. At oral arguments, the state’s lawyer argued that by blocking funds for their education, Texas “prevents a substantial number of these children from coming in,” which would in turn save the state more money. In other words, the state could refuse to pay for school to create the conditions for self-deportation.

In a 5-to-4 decision, the court rejected Texas’ appeal based on the promise of equal protection in the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. “Directing the onus of a parent’s misconduct against his children does not comport with fundamental conceptions of justice,” Justice William Brennan wrote for the majority. “Education has a fundamental role in maintaining the fabric of our society.”

‘The Times Are Different’

Today, there’s a clear path for challenging the precedents of a previous, more liberal era of the Supreme Court. Heritage spelled it out in February: If a state were to require schools to collect data on students’ immigration status or to charge tuition to immigrant families, “such legislation would draw a lawsuit from the left, which would likely lead the Supreme Court to reconsider its ill-considered Plyler v. Doe decision,” the Heritage document said.

The same tactic led to the end of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority could follow the script in Chief Justice Warren Burger’s dissent in Plyler in 1982: “Were it our business to set the nation’s social policy, I would agree without hesitation that it is senseless for an enlightened society to deprive any children — including illegal aliens — of an elementary education,” Chief Justice Burger wrote. “However, the Constitution does not constitute us as ‘Platonic guardians,’ nor does it vest in this court the authority to strike down laws because they do not meet our standards of desirable social policy, ‘wisdom’ or ‘common sense.’”

If the Supreme Court were to overturn Plyler and allow states to revoke access to public school for undocumented children, it would fall to legislatures to enact such policies. Many states have constitutions or laws that grant a right to public education, and some would not block children from going to school simply because it is cruel. That makes it far more likely that immigrants would move to one of those states rather than leave the country altogether. But that may be sufficient for some politicians.

When he ran for re-election two years ago, Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas, talked about mounting a challenge to Plyler v. Doe. “I think we will resurrect that case and challenge this issue again, because the expenses are extraordinary and the times are different,” he said on a conservative radio program, according to The Austin American-StatesmanA bill along those lines died in the Texas Legislature in 2023. But a proposal to end paying for the enrollment of undocumented children in public schools, posed to voters on the ballot for the Republican primary in Texas in March, had more than 87 percent support.

Heritage is trying to build support for its proposals by focusing on the cost of educating immigrant children. The organization says that enrolling the minors who crossed the border without authorization in 2023 would cost $2 billion a year. (Some of those minors work, despite child labor laws, and may not attend school.) Repeating that number at a House subcommittee hearing in June, Representative Aaron Bean, Republican of Florida, said that educating undocumented children was “wreaking havoc on our school systems across America.”

If such attacks succeed in a second Trump term, it will be a measure of how the political climate has shifted. In 2017, Stephen Miller, a hard-right immigration opponent and Trump adviser, pushed for the Education Department to issue a guidance memo telling states that in spite of Plyler, they could block immigrant children from attending public school, according to Bloomberg News.

Betsy DeVos, then the secretary of education, “would never consider” issuing such a memo, a spokesperson for the department said at the time. So Miller’s plan died. But DeVos, who resigned citing Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, has little chance of serving in a second Trump term. Miller, however, is poised to play a prominent role. Last fall, the Trump campaign referred reporters’ questions about Trump’s second-term immigration agenda to Miller. He promised a “blitz” of restrictions that he expected to be challenged in court — the route to challenging Plyler.

Will the argument for self-deportation have more success in 2024 than it did when Mitt Romney suggested it? Alabama wound up watering down its 2011 restrictions in part because of an outcry from businesses about the loss of workers. Crops rotted in the field. Investment in the state stalled. Depriving children of education would unleash real effects, on them and their families, and over time perhaps on economic prosperity. It’s the kind of policy that all but the harshest immigration opponents might come to regret.

Source: The Right-Wing Dream of ‘Self-Deportation’

U.S. Senators sound alarm over Canada’s acceptance of Gaza refugees

Not totally surprising, given potential security risks:

Canada’s acceptance of Palestinian refugees from Gaza is setting off alarm bells south of the border.

In a letter Wednesday to U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, United States Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) expressed concern over the program, which he warned could lead to an increased risk of allowing individuals with ties to terror groups easy access to the United States.

“On May 27, 2024, the Government of Canada announced its intent to increase the number of Gazans who will be allowed into their country under temporary special measures,” Rubio wrote in his letter, which was signed by five other Republican senators.

“We are deeply concerned and request heightened scrutiny by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security should any of them attempt to enter the United States at ports of entry as well as between ports of entry.”

Cosigning the letter were fellow senators Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Mike Braun, Joni Ernst and Josh Hawley.

Last month, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced a five-fold increase in the number of Gazan refugees let into Canada, upping the program’s cap to 5,000 people.

The government’s initial cap on Palestinian refugees was 1,000.

As well, Palestinian refugees will be able to apply for work and study permits without charge….

Source: U.S. Senators sound alarm over Canada’s acceptance of Gaza refugees

USA: Noncitizens are less likely to participate in a census with citizenship question, study says

Of note, the main impact being on those ineligible to have a social security number. Non-issue in Canada where the census has for many years included a citizenship question (with increased disaggregation):

Not Adding a citizenship question to the census reduces the participation of people who aren’t U.S. citizens, particularly those from Latin American countries, according to a new research paper that comes as Republicans in Congress are pushing to add such a question to the census form.

Noncitizens who pay taxes but are ineligible to have a Social Security number are less likely to fill out the census questionnaire or more likely to give incomplete answers on the form if there is a citizenship question, potentially exacerbating undercounts of some groups, according to the paper released this summer by researchers at the U.S. Census Bureau and the University of Kansas.

Other groups were less sensitive to the addition of a citizenship question, such as U.S.-born Hispanic residents and noncitizens who weren’t from Latin America, the study said.

The paper comes as Republican lawmakers in Congress push to require a citizenship question on the questionnaire for the once-a-decade census. Their aim is to exclude people who aren’t citizens from the count that helps determine political power and the distribution of federal funds in the United States. The 14th Amendment requires that all people are counted in the census, not just citizens.

In May, the GOP-led House passed a bill that would eliminate noncitizens from the tally gathered during a census and used to decide how many House seats and Electoral College votes each state gets. The bill is unlikely to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate. Separately, the House in coming weeks is to consider an appropriations bill containing similar language seeking to omit people in the country illegally from the count used to redraw political districts.

During debate earlier this month at a House appropriations committee meeting, Democratic U.S. Rep. Grace Meng of New York described the efforts to exclude people in the country illegally as “an extreme proposal” that would detract from the accuracy of the census.

“Pretending that noncitizens don’t live in our communities would only limit the crucial work of the Census Bureau and take resources away from areas that need them the most,” Meng said.

But Republican U.S. Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia argued that including people in the country illegally gives state and local governments an incentive to attract noncitizens so that they can have bigger populations and more political power.

“Every noncitizen that is included actually takes away from citizens’ ability to determine who their representatives are,” Clyde said.

The next national head count is in 2030.

Source: Noncitizens are less likely to participate in a census with citizenship question, study says

Krugman: Trump’s Cynical Attempt to Pit Recent Immigrants Against Black Americans

Indeed. But continue to see from time-to-time articles from Black Americans arguing the same.

Obviously, the big political news of the past couple of days has come from the Democratic side. But before last week’s Republican National Convention fades from view, let me focus instead on a development on the G.O.P. side that may, given everything else that has been happening, have flown under the radar: MAGA rhetoric on immigration, which was already ugly, has become even uglier.

Until now, most of the anti-immigration sloganeering coming from Donald Trump and his campaign has involved false claims that we’re experiencing a migrant crime wave.

Increasingly, however, Trump and his associates have started making the case that immigrants are stealing American jobs — specifically, the accusation that immigrants are inflicting terrible damage on the livelihoods of Black workers.

Of course, the idea that immigrants are taking jobs away from native-born Americans, including native-born Black Americans, isn’t new. It has, in particular, been an obsession for JD Vance, complete with misleading statistical analysis, so Trump’s choice of Vance as his running mate in itself signals a new focus on the supposed economic harm inflicted by immigrants.

So, too, did Trump’s acceptance speech on Thursday, which contained a number of assertions about the economics of immigration, among them, the notion that of jobs created under President Biden, “107 percent of those jobs are taken by illegal aliens” — a weirdly specific number considering that it’s clearly false, because native-born employment has risen by millions of jobs since Biden took office.

What seems relatively new, however, is the attempt to pit immigrants against Black Americans. True, Trump prefigured this line of attack during his June debate with Biden, when he declared that immigrants are “taking Black jobs,” leading some to mockingly question which jobs, exactly, count as “Black.”

But the volume on this claim has been turned way up.

At the Republican convention, former Trump adviser Peter Navarro, someone very likely to have a role in the next administration if Trump wins, spoke of “a whole army of illiterate illegal aliens stealing the jobs of Black, brown and blue-collar Americans.”

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek published last week, Trump went even bigger, declaring that “The Black people are going to be decimated by the millions of people that are coming into the country.” He continued, “Their wages have gone way down. Their jobs are being taken by the migrants coming in illegally into the country.” He went on to say, “The Black population in this country is going to die because of what’s happened, what’s going to happen to their jobs — their jobs, their housing, everything.”

Trump’s diatribe forced Bloomberg to add this, parenthetically, as a fact check: “According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the majority of employment gains since 2018 have been for naturalized U.S. citizens and legal residents — not migrants.”

There was a time when a rant like this would have signaled that a politician lacked the emotional stability and intellectual capacity to hold the highest office in the land. Alas.

Also, it’s hard to overstate the cynicism here. Trump has a history of associating with white supremacists, not to mention his longstanding obsession with crime in urban, often predominantly Black precincts. Still, he clearly perceives an opportunity to peel away some Black voters by playing them off against immigrants.

But again, even if we ignore the cynicism, this new line of attack on immigration is just wrong on the facts.

If immigrants are taking away all the “Black jobs,” you can’t see it in the data, which shows Black unemployment at historic lows. If Black wages have, as Trump claims, gone way down, someone should tell the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which says that median Black earnings, adjusted for inflation, are significantly higher than they were toward the end of Trump’s term. (You should ignore the spurious bump during the pandemic, which reflected composition effects rather than genuine wage gains.)

You might ask why, given we have indeed seen a surge in immigration, that we aren’t seeing signs of an adverse, let alone cataclysmic, impact on Black wages or employment. After all, many recent immigrants, especially undocumented immigrants, lack college degrees and maybe even high school education. So aren’t they competing with native-born Americans who also lack college or high school degrees?

The answer, which we’ve known since the 1990s, is that immigrant workers bring a different set of skills to the table than native-born workers, even when those workers have similar levels of formal education. And yes, I mean skills: If you think of workers without a college degree as “unskilled,” try fixing your own plumbing or doing your own carpentry. It shouldn’t need to be said, but a lot of blue-collar work is highly skilled and highly specialized. As a result, immigrants tend to take a very different mix of jobs than native-born workers do — which means that there’s much less head-to-head competition between immigrant and native-born workers than you might think, or what Trump and Vance want you to think.

The bottom line is that the attempt to portray immigration as an apocalyptic threat to Black Americans is refuted by the facts. Will it nonetheless work politically? I have no idea.

Source: Trump’s Cynical Attempt to Pit Recent Immigrants Against Black Americans

Key Takeaways From the Republican Convention’s Message on Immigration

Useful summary:

Former President Donald J. Trump and Republicans are in lock step on the issue of immigration, further evidence that he has cemented his grip on the party during his third run for the White House.

At the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week, the rhetoric and the party platform match his vision of isolationism and border security, and his suspicion of the people crossing the 2,000-mile line dividing Mexico and the United States, as they have since his first run for president in 2016. But the broadsides have become darker and the language more conspiratorial.

Here are four immigration takeaways from the convention.

In panels and speeches at the convention, falsehoods about noncitizens’ voting have become more pervasive and central to Mr. Trump’s lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him.

Mark Morgan, a former top Trump immigration official, claimed without evidence that Democrats were encouraging illegal immigration for political reasons, in order to bring more people into their party. Kari Lake, a Trump acolyte and Republican nominee for Senate in Arizona, falsely accused her Democratic opponent of voting “to let the millions of people who poured into our country illegally cast a ballot in this upcoming election.”

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said Democrats “wanted votes from illegals more than they wanted to protect our children.” Senator Rick Scott of Florida recalled a nightmare, he said, in which “Biden and the Democrats flew so many illegals” into the United States that it “was easy for Democrats to rig the elections.”

Voter fraud is extraordinarily rare, and allegations that widespread numbers of undocumented immigrants are unlawfully voting have been consistently discredited. But Mr. Trump’s false claim, which is being used to disenfranchise Americans, has almost universally been adopted by his party.

Kate Steinle. Laken Riley. Rachel Morin. Republican political candidates and leaders are invoking the names of women, many of them young and white, who authorities have said were killed by undocumented immigrants. Their deaths have been used to amplify calls for mass deportations and other hard-line immigration restrictions.

On Tuesday, Mr. Cruz drew shudders from some audience members as he described sitting in homes with the grieving families of some the women. “Tonight, I speak for Kate and Laken and Rachel,” he said.

A day later, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas named 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray, who was killed in Houston. Two undocumented Venezuelan men have been charged in her strangling. “She’s one of thousands whose lives have been destroyed by Joe Biden’s open border policies,” he said.

There is little comprehensive data on the crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. But many studies show that crime has gone down while illegal immigration has increased, and that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than are people born in the United States. Republicans say that any crime committed by a person not lawfully in the country is one too many.

Source: Key Takeaways From the Republican Convention’s Message on Immigration

What Would It Take to Deport Millions of Immigrants? The G.O.P. Plan, Explained

Good long read on the practicalities and virtual impossibilities of doing so. Any such efforts would of course be divisive, disruptive, costly and likely only partially successful (like the partially completed wall in his presidency):

When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, he vowed to build a wall to seal the border and keep criminals from entering the country. This campaign season, his immigration agenda has a new focus: a mass deportation program unlike anything the country has seen.

His party’s platform, ratified at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, promises the “largest deportation effort in American history,” and immigration was the theme of Tuesday’s gathering.

What would it take to deport millions of people? Is it even possible?

There were 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States in 2022, according to the latest government estimates, and more than eight out of 10 have been in the country for more than a decade. Mr. Trump said during the debate last month that there were 18 million, which is unsubstantiated.

Fleeing political and economic turmoil, migrants from countries like Venezuela have crossed the border in record numbers during the Biden administration.

Mr. Trump and the Republican platform have made broad declarations but thus far offered scant details about their intended operation.

The former president has suggested that any undocumented immigrant is subject to removal.

The party platform states that “the most dangerous criminals” would be prioritized.

It also said: “The Republican Party is committed to sending illegal aliens back home and removing those who have violated our laws.”

The consensus among immigration experts and former homeland security officials is that logistical, legal, bureaucratic and cost barriers would make it virtually impossible to carry out the mass deportations Mr. Trump seeks in the span of a four-year presidential term.

“It’s enormously complicated and an expensive thing to decide to deport people who have been here years,” said Laura Collins, an immigration expert at the George W. Bush Institute in Dallas.

Currently, ICE agents focus on locating and deporting convicted criminals, such as child molesters and others suspected of being a threat to public or national security.

Some one million immigrants with final removal orders living in the country could be a targeted group.

“Let’s say you find these people. You then have to detain them,” said Mr. Neifach. “How are you going to expand detention in a way that won’t blow the bank?”

Every potential deportee is held in a detention facility, and in the current fiscal year, Congress funded the detention of 41,500 immigrants daily at a cost of $3.4 billion, which would need to increase exponentially.

And many immigrants hail from countries that do not have diplomatic ties with the United States or that refuse to take back their nationals. They cannot be immediately flown out of the country, and the Supreme Court has ruled that people cannot remain detained for limitless periods awaiting removal.

The ICE budget for transportation and deportation in fiscal 2023 was $420 million, and the agency deported 142,580 people that year.

Another Trump administration could speed up deportations by terminating programs that the Biden administration has introduced.

For example, since 2022, some 500,000 people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela have been allowed to fly to the United States and live and work for two years, provided they have a financial sponsor. Mr. Biden has also allowed nearly 700,000 migrants who make an appointment on a mobile app to cross the border through an official port of entry and receive work permits.

“Trump could flick the switch and revoke it,” said Mr. Neifach. But, he added, many of the migrants could make asylum claims and become part of the clogged courts.

Expedited removal at the border enables the swift deportation of migrants without a hearing, unless they convince an agent that they would face the threat of violence back home, and Mr. Biden in June issued an executive order currently being challenged in court to amplify use of this tool.

Mr. Trump could try to extend it to the interior, though he would likely face court challenges.

Mr. Trump has not addressed whether he would exercise any discretion, or make any exceptions.

More than one million Americans are married to an undocumented person, and a large share of undocumented immigrants have children who are U.S. citizens.

“When you are talking those kinds of numbers and law enforcement presence, you have to think at the end — what does that do to the atmosphere in the country?” said Ms. Napolitano, the former Homeland Security secretary.

Source: What Would It Take to Deport Millions of Immigrants? The G.O.P. Plan, Explained

New Report: 9 Million Immigrants Eligible to Become Citizens in 2024

Impossible, however, that such a large number can be processed within the next few months:

The Biden administration has made significant progress in streamlining the naturalization process. By the end of May 2024, the average processing time for citizenship applications had decreased to five months (or less depending on the city), a 15% reduction from the previous year and a more than 50% decline from 2022. This improvement means that eligible green card holders who apply for citizenship in July 2024 could conceivably be approved in time to participate in the presidential election, depending on where they live.

High Concentration in Key States

According to the report, California, New York, Texas, and Florida are the states with the largest population of lawful permanent residents eligible to become U.S. citizens. These states account for nearly 60% of all eligible residents, These states account for nearly 60% of all eligible residents, highlighting where voter registration efforts could be most impactful.

Backlog Reduction

USCIS, the federal agency responsible for processing citizenship applications, has made notable progress in reducing its backlog. In 2023, the backlog of citizenship applications fell to 416,034, a 44% decrease from the high of 942,669 in 2020. This is the lowest backlog since 2015, signaling a more efficient processing system.

Potential Policy Changes

The report also highlights the potential impact of the upcoming election on immigration policies. While the Biden administration has made naturalization more accessible, a shift in administration could reverse these gains. Former President Donald Trump has already stated his intention to end birthright citizenship and deport millions of undocumented immigrants if re-elected.

Source: New Report: 9 Million Immigrants Eligible to Become Citizens in 2024

USA: Newly naturalized citizens could theoretically swing the election: Report

Tends to assume that new voters are potentially monolithic in their voting intentions:

The number of foreign nationals in the U.S. currently eligible for naturalization outnumbers the 2020 presidential margin of victory in five battleground states.

A report released by the American Immigration Council (AIC) on Thursday concluded that if some or all of the country’s 7.4 million not-yet-naturalized-but-eligible residents got their citizenship before November, they could swing the 2024 election.

That’s unlikely to happen, as the naturalization process for eligible foreign nationals takes roughly eight months from application to receiving a certificate of citizenship.

But the report highlights the disconnect between the size of immigrant communities, their economic impact and their political power.

It says immigrants make up 13.8 percent of the U.S. population, but only 10 percent of eligible voters.

And potential citizens could in theory sway both battleground states and a couple of key red ones.

The researchers found that 574,800 immigrants in Florida are likely eligible to naturalize, while former President Trump’s margin of victory there was 371,686 votes.

In Texas, the naturalization-eligible population is estimated at 789,500, and the 2020 presidential margin of victory was 631,221.

The margin of victory in some battleground states pales in comparison to the number of potential new voters.

In Arizona, 164,000 people can apply for citizenship, and the vote difference was 10,457, about a 16-to-1 ratio; in Georgia, the ratio is about 13-to-1.

Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin all show up on the list, with naturalization-eligible resident to 2020 victory margin ratios of around 8-to-1, 3-to-1, 2-to-1, and 5-to-2, respectively.

The report also found that immigrants paid 16.2 percent of all taxes paid by U.S. households in 2022, despite having less political representation.

Source: Newly naturalized citizens could theoretically swing the election: Report

Emigration to the U.S. hits a 10-year high as tens of thousands of Canadians head south

The ration of emigration to the USA to immigration has, however, remained relatively constant: under 30 percent. So while concerning, the rate of churn does not appear to have changed significantly. The respective percentages of born in Canada, born in USA or born elsewhere (the immigrant/emigrant churn) do not appear to have changed significantly even has the overall numbers grew in 2022:

Tens of thousands of Canadians are emigrating to the United States and the number of people packing up and moving south has hit a level not seen in 10 years or more, according to data compiled by CBC News.

There’s nothing new about Canadians moving south of the 49th parallel for love, work or warmer weather, but the latest figures from the American Community Survey (ACS) suggest it’s now happening at a much higher rate than the historical average.

The ACS, which is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, says the number of people moving from Canada to the U.S. hit 126,340 in 2022. That’s an increase of nearly 70 per cent over the 75,752 people who made the move in 2012.

Of the 126,340 who emigrated from Canada to the U.S. that year, 53,311 were born in Canada, 42,595 were Americans who left here for their native land, and 30,434 were foreign-born immigrants to Canada who decided to move to the U.S. instead.

That Canadian-born figure is notably higher now than it has been in the past. It’s up roughly 50 per cent over the average number of Canadians born in Canada who left for the U.S. in the pre-COVID period.

United Nations data compiled by Statistics Canada and shared with CBC News shows the U.S. is by far the most common destination for Canadian emigrants.

There were about 800,000 Canadians living in the U.S. as of 2020, eight times more than the 100,000 who live in the U.K., according to the latest UN figures.

A number of Facebook groups have popped up to help Canadians make the move. Recent arrivals use them to share tips on how to secure a visa or green card, where to live and what to do about health insurance.

One group called “Canadians Moving to Florida & USA” has more than 55,000 members and is adding dozens of new members every week.

The real estate agents and immigration lawyers who help Canadians make the move say the surge is being driven partly by a desire for a more affordable life.

But there are also people who say they have lost faith in Canada under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership and want to pursue the American dream instead, these agents and lawyers said.

Marco Terminesi is a former professional soccer player who grew up in Woodbridge, Ont. and now works as a real estate agent in Florida’s Palm Beach County with a busy practice that caters to Canadian expats.

‘I hate the politics here’

Terminesi said his phone has been ringing off the hook for the last 18 months with calls from Canadians wanting to move to sunny Florida.

“‘With Trudeau, I have to get out of here,’ that’s what people tell me. They say to me, ‘Marco, who do I have to talk to to get out of here?'” Terminesi told CBC News.

“There’s a lot of hatred, a lot of pissed-off calls. It was really shocking for me to hear all of this.

“And I’m not sure all of these people are moving for the right reason. People are saying, ‘I hate the politics here, I’m uprooting my whole family and moving down,’ and I say, ‘Well, that problem could be solved in a year or two.'”…

Source: Emigration to the U.S. hits a 10-year high as tens of thousands of Canadians head south

House passes bill to add citizenship question to U.S. Census

While a citizenship question, like we have in Canada, makes sense,  the blatant politicisation and political purpose of the initiative does not given how it would further reinforce the political weight of rural states compared to more urban ones:

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill Wednesday that would add a citizenship question to the next U.S. Census in 2030, preventing non-citizens or illegal immigrants from being counted toward the allocation of representatives and federal electors in each state.

The Equal Representation Act passed the House by a vote of 206 to 202, along party lines. It now moves to the Senate.

Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., who introduced the bill in January, called it “commonsense” that only U.S. citizens be counted when it comes to representation. Currently, anyone who participates in the census every 10 years — including non-citizens and undocumented immigrants — is counted for redistricting.

“One of the lesser acknowledged, but equally alarming, side effects of this administration’s failure to secure the southern border is the illegal immigrant population’s influence in America’s electoral process,” Edwards said on the House floor Wednesday.

“Though commonsense dictates that only citizens should be counted for apportionment purposes, illegal aliens have nonetheless recently been counted toward the final tallies that determine how many House seats each state is allocated and the number of electoral votes it will wield in presidential elections,” Edwards added.

The White House has been “strongly opposed” to putting a citizenship question on the census, saying it would be too costly.

“The bill would increase the cost of conducting the census and make it more difficult to obtain accurate data,” the White House’s Office of Management and Budget said in a statement this week.

“It would also violate the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, which requires that the number of seats in the House of Representatives ‘be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state,'” the White House added.

“It is unconscionable that illegal immigrants and non-citizens are counted toward congressional district apportionment and our electoral map,” said Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn.

“While people continue to flee Democrat-run cities, desperate Democrats are back-filling the mass exodus with illegal immigrants so that they do not lose their seats in Congress or their electoral votes for the presidency, hence artificially boosting their political power and in turn diluting the power of Americans’ votes.”

Before Wednesday’s vote, Democrats blasted the effort as unconstitutional and a waste of time given its prospects in the Senate.

“This bill is an affront to the great radical Republicans who wrote the original Constitution and the 14the Amendment, which has always made persons, not voters, the basis for reapportionment,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. “This bill would destroy the accuracy of the census, which may have something to do with its real legislative motivation.”

Source: House passes bill to add citizenship question to U.S. Census