USA: The Right-Wing Dream of ‘Self-Deportation’

Of interest:

In his presidential campaign, Donald Trump has doubled down on bashing migrants crossing the southern border. They are criminals who are “poisoning the blood of our country,” he says. The Republican National Convention was full of talk of surging “migrant crime,” even though such a rise does not exist

The number of Americans who think the immigration level is too high has sharply risen since the last presidential contest in 2020, and as Americans move to the right on the issue, Trump plans to go much further than President Biden’s executive order in June, which closes the border when crossings surge. Trump has said he would build “vast holding facilities” — detention camps — to lock people up as their cases progress; end birthright citizenship, even though the Constitution protects it; and bring back a version of the travel ban from his first term, which barred visitors from several mostly Muslim countries. Another Trump promise, mass deportations, hasn’t been tried since the 1950s; now, polls show majority support for it, including among Latinos.

But there is one anti-immigration proposal on the right that Trump doesn’t talk about publicly. It’s a spin on “self-deportation.” The term — for provoking immigrants to leave of their own volition — has gone out of fashion but the idea continues to lurk. This time, instead of directly pressuring undocumented adults to flee, some immigration opponents are threatening access to school for their children. It’s a nuclear option — requiring the reversal of a Supreme Court ruling that has been a linchpin of educational rights for four decades — that some of Trump’s allies on the right are quietly building support for.

In February, the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing Washington think tank that’s become central to mapping out policy objectives for the next Republican administration, recommended requiring public schools to collect data on immigration status when students enroll. Heritage also said schools should charge tuition for children who are undocumented or who have a parent who lacks legal status.

About 600,000 undocumented children live in the country, and another 4.5 million have a parent who is here illegally. To ensure that parents can send their children to school without fear of immigration agents, the Biden administration declared in 2021 that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement could take no actions of any kind at schools and other locations where young people gather, like universities and day care centers. It’s easy to see why schools are such a sensitive site of immigration enforcement. Barring children from the classroom punishes them for their parents’ decisions and disrupts families’ daily rhythm. Most searingly, perhaps, it undermines the hope of bettering the lives of the next generation — a reason for coming to the United States in the first place.

It has always been difficult to deter people from migrating to the United States, given instability in their home countries and the lure of economic opportunity at American businesses that depend on cheap labor. But there is a grim logic to the strategy of keeping children out of school in the United States — that if you go so far as to take away a right fundamental to the American dream, people will leave.

The Long Shadow of Prop. 187

During the 2012 presidential campaign, the Republican Mitt Romney was roundly mocked for saying that the solution for illegal immigration was to encourage people to “self-deport” rather than for the government to remove them. Newt Gingrich, the former Republican House speaker, called the idea a “fantasy.” Trump, then the host of “The Apprentice,” called the notion “crazy” and claimed it cost Romney the Latino vote — and the election.

But the concept is an old one, dating back to at least the 19th century. In 1882, Congress passed the Chinese Exclusion Act, the first law to bar the entry of workers based on their nationality. For decades afterward, people in segregated Chinatowns lived in the shadows, shuttering businesses, ducking corrupt immigration officers and hiding from mobs. “From 1890 to 1920, a period of mass migration from all over the world, the Chinese population in the United States declined by more than 40 percent,” the historian Adam Goodman wrote in his journal article “The Long History of Self-Deportation.”

A century later, states introduced policies designed to motivate immigrants to move elsewhere. Proposition 187, a proposal to bar undocumented people from using social services, including public health care and education, went on the ballot in California in 1994. A satirical group, Hispanics Against Liberal Take Over, started calling for the self-deportation of all undocumented immigrants in joke ads during the campaign.

Within days after Prop. 187 passed, a federal judge found the law unconstitutional and prevented it from going into effect. Nonetheless, researchers saw immediate, measurable impacts. One study showed that undocumented patients in California with tuberculosis were far more likely to delay seeking care. “Life as an undocumented immigrant is so delicate when it comes to interacting with public institutions,” said Tom K. Wong, a political science professor and founding director of the U.S. Immigration Policy Center at the University of California, San Diego. “The chilling effects are broad.”

The results of Prop. 187 drew the interest of Kris Kobach, then a law professor who pushed for states to play a greater role in immigration enforcement. In 2008, Kobach published an influentialarticle titled “Attrition Through Enforcement” that praised a new Arizona law requiring employers to verify the legal status of workers. He argued that while most “garden-variety illegal aliens” could easily live and work in the United States, they began “self-deporting by the thousands” from Arizona. As a result, Kobach noted, costs dropped for Arizona public schools. He acknowledged that some people were moving to neighboring states but claimed that many returned to Mexico.

In 2011, Kobach became Kansas’ secretary of state. Because of his legal expertise, he was tapped to help write an Alabama bill with the harshest set of immigration restrictions in the country at the time. The law included a mandate that schools collect data on citizenship and immigration status when students enroll, as Heritage now proposes. The Monday after the Alabama bill passed, school officials reported, thousands of students didn’t attend school. Absentee rates remained high. Families fled the state. “It was like a disease,” the owner of a grocery store in Albertville toldNBC News. “Everyone was panicking and leaving.”

Kobach celebrated. “It’s self-deportation at no cost to the taxpayer,” he said.

Though other parts of Alabama’s law were enforced for a time, after only a few weeks, a federal appeals court blocked the provision that required schools to ask about students’ immigration status. This ruling rested on a Supreme Court decision from 1982, Plyler v. Doe, a high-water mark for judicial protection of civil rights. Plyler isn’t nearly as famous as Brown v. Board of Education, the 1954 case that called for the desegregation of public schools. But in the current political landscape, Plyler is both increasingly significant and increasingly vulnerable.

The case began in 1977, when Tyler Independent School District in Texas expelled dozens of undocumented children after the state cut funding for those students. Alfredo Lopez, who was 10 at the time, was one of the students sent home. His family joined four others who sued the state. They went to their first court hearing with their car packed, ready to flee if immigration agents forced them to do so.

But the families won in the lower courts. Texas appealed to the Supreme Court. At oral arguments, the state’s lawyer argued that by blocking funds for their education, Texas “prevents a substantial number of these children from coming in,” which would in turn save the state more money. In other words, the state could refuse to pay for school to create the conditions for self-deportation.

In a 5-to-4 decision, the court rejected Texas’ appeal based on the promise of equal protection in the 14th Amendment of the Constitution. “Directing the onus of a parent’s misconduct against his children does not comport with fundamental conceptions of justice,” Justice William Brennan wrote for the majority. “Education has a fundamental role in maintaining the fabric of our society.”

‘The Times Are Different’

Today, there’s a clear path for challenging the precedents of a previous, more liberal era of the Supreme Court. Heritage spelled it out in February: If a state were to require schools to collect data on students’ immigration status or to charge tuition to immigrant families, “such legislation would draw a lawsuit from the left, which would likely lead the Supreme Court to reconsider its ill-considered Plyler v. Doe decision,” the Heritage document said.

The same tactic led to the end of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority could follow the script in Chief Justice Warren Burger’s dissent in Plyler in 1982: “Were it our business to set the nation’s social policy, I would agree without hesitation that it is senseless for an enlightened society to deprive any children — including illegal aliens — of an elementary education,” Chief Justice Burger wrote. “However, the Constitution does not constitute us as ‘Platonic guardians,’ nor does it vest in this court the authority to strike down laws because they do not meet our standards of desirable social policy, ‘wisdom’ or ‘common sense.’”

If the Supreme Court were to overturn Plyler and allow states to revoke access to public school for undocumented children, it would fall to legislatures to enact such policies. Many states have constitutions or laws that grant a right to public education, and some would not block children from going to school simply because it is cruel. That makes it far more likely that immigrants would move to one of those states rather than leave the country altogether. But that may be sufficient for some politicians.

When he ran for re-election two years ago, Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas, talked about mounting a challenge to Plyler v. Doe. “I think we will resurrect that case and challenge this issue again, because the expenses are extraordinary and the times are different,” he said on a conservative radio program, according to The Austin American-StatesmanA bill along those lines died in the Texas Legislature in 2023. But a proposal to end paying for the enrollment of undocumented children in public schools, posed to voters on the ballot for the Republican primary in Texas in March, had more than 87 percent support.

Heritage is trying to build support for its proposals by focusing on the cost of educating immigrant children. The organization says that enrolling the minors who crossed the border without authorization in 2023 would cost $2 billion a year. (Some of those minors work, despite child labor laws, and may not attend school.) Repeating that number at a House subcommittee hearing in June, Representative Aaron Bean, Republican of Florida, said that educating undocumented children was “wreaking havoc on our school systems across America.”

If such attacks succeed in a second Trump term, it will be a measure of how the political climate has shifted. In 2017, Stephen Miller, a hard-right immigration opponent and Trump adviser, pushed for the Education Department to issue a guidance memo telling states that in spite of Plyler, they could block immigrant children from attending public school, according to Bloomberg News.

Betsy DeVos, then the secretary of education, “would never consider” issuing such a memo, a spokesperson for the department said at the time. So Miller’s plan died. But DeVos, who resigned citing Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, has little chance of serving in a second Trump term. Miller, however, is poised to play a prominent role. Last fall, the Trump campaign referred reporters’ questions about Trump’s second-term immigration agenda to Miller. He promised a “blitz” of restrictions that he expected to be challenged in court — the route to challenging Plyler.

Will the argument for self-deportation have more success in 2024 than it did when Mitt Romney suggested it? Alabama wound up watering down its 2011 restrictions in part because of an outcry from businesses about the loss of workers. Crops rotted in the field. Investment in the state stalled. Depriving children of education would unleash real effects, on them and their families, and over time perhaps on economic prosperity. It’s the kind of policy that all but the harshest immigration opponents might come to regret.

Source: The Right-Wing Dream of ‘Self-Deportation’

A GOP plan for the census would revive Trump’s failed push for a citizenship question

Of note (the usual suspects):

A coalition of conservative groups is preparing for a chance to shape the country’s next set of census results in case a Republican president returns to the White House in 2025.

Their playbook includes reviving a failed push for a citizenship question and other Trump-era moves that threaten the accuracy of the 2030 national head count.

The plan also calls for aligning the mission of the government agency in charge of the next tally of the country’s residents with “conservative principles.” Many census watchers, including a former top Trump administration official, tell NPR they find this position particularly alarming.

The policy proposals — led by The Heritage Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank — are part of a broader “Project 2025” plan for dismantling aspects of the U.S. government. “For too long, conservative presidents’ agendas have been stymied by liberal bureaucrats who put their own agenda over that of the President, whom they serve,” Paul Dans, a former Trump appointee who is Project 2025’s director, claims in a statement.

Since the plan’s release in April, most public attention has focused on its climate policy and calls to expand the president’s power over federal agencies. But 2025 marks a pivotal year for one particular and often-neglected agency — the Census Bureau.

The federal government’s largest statistical agency is about to start a critical planning period for the upcoming once-a-decade count. Decisions expected to be made during the next administration, including what census questions to ask and how, will have long-lasting effects on the statistics used to divvy up congressional seats and Electoral College votes, redraw voting districts for every level of government, inform policymaking and research, and guide more than $2.8 trillion a year in federal money for public services across the country.

If former President Donald Trump or another Republican candidate is elected in 2024, many census watchers are bracing for a potential sequel to the years of interference that muddled the last tally in 2020.

Why do these conservative groups want a citizenship question?

It’s not clear exactly why these conservative groups want the next census to ask for the U.S. citizenship status of every person living in every household in the United States.

Research by the bureau has shown that including the question “Is this person a citizen of the United States?” on forms is likely to discourage many households with Latino or Asian American residents from getting counted in official population totals.

The bureau’s annual American Community Survey already produces estimates of U.S. citizens, which are used to help enforce the Voting Rights Act.

And a future Republican administration could, as the Trump administration tried to, seek citizenship data from an alternate source — government records. The agency’s researchers said those would be more accurate and less costly to use than people’s self-reported answers. (President Biden stopped that work in 2021.)

Still, Thomas Gilman — a former Chrysler executive who, during the Trump administration, served as chief financial officer for the bureau’s parent agency, the Commerce Department — writes in the Project 2025’s policy guide: “Any successful conservative Administration must include a citizenship question in the census.”

Gilman declined NPR’s interview requests through a Heritage Foundation spokesperson and did not respond to written questions. The Heritage Foundation also did not make any representatives available to be interviewed for this report.

During the Trump administration, a citizenship question was part of a secret strategy to alter a key set of census numbers, the 2020 release of a presidential memo and, later, internal documentsconfirmed. Those numbers are used every 10 years to reapportion each state’s share of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Electoral College.

According to the 14th Amendment, the congressional apportionment numbers must include the “whole number of persons in each state.” But Trump officials wanted to make the unprecedented move of excluding unauthorized immigrants.

In public, however, the Trump administration claimed to want a citizenship question to better enforce the Voting Rights Act’s protections against the discrimination of racial and language minorities — a justification the Supreme Court found appeared to be “contrived.”

In court, groups that sued over the proposed question pointed to another reason that remains a potential motivating factor for a future GOP administration — neighborhood-block level citizenship data that could be used to draw voting districts that a Republican redistricting mastermind said would be “advantageous to Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites.”

That kind of data would be key to a legal dispute that the Supreme Court left unresolved in 2016: whether it is legal for states to redraw legislative districts based on the number of citizens old enough to vote rather than of all residents in an area.

Would Trump, if reelected, try again for a citizenship question?

It’s an open question whether Trump, if reelected, would make another go for a citizenship question. His campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Hermann Habermann — a former deputy director of the bureau who testified in court against the Trump administration’s citizenship question push — sees echoes of that failed effort embedded within the Project 2025 plan. It repeats a misleading Trump-era talking point that appears to reference the United Nations Statistics Division’s census recommendations: “Asking a citizenship question is considered best practice even by the United Nations.”

“I don’t think they’ve read properly what it says there,” says Habermann about how Project 2025 interprets recommendations he helped write while serving as the director of the U.N. Statistics Division. “It doesn’t say thou shalt do this. It recommends that citizenship be one of the areas that is looked at. The U.S. does look at citizenship at the block-group level through the American Community Survey. So we do it. We just don’t do it at the block level. And so the question always became, why is that necessary?”

How a Republican administration answers that question could be the focus of another round of lawsuits, says Thomas Saenz, president and general counsel of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, which represented some of the groups that sued the Trump administration over its citizenship question push.

“I’ve never heard articulated a justification for the citizenship question that is not fairly obviously a veil to disguise racial and partisan intent,” Saenz says.

Still, in the Biden years, GOP calls to add a census citizenship question and alter the congressional apportionment numbers have not gone away. In July, House Republicans released a draft funding bill that would have banned the bureau from using the money to include unauthorized immigrants in future counts used to divide up House seats.

These conservative groups also have a “conservative agenda” for the Census Bureau

While the Project 2025 plan also outlines garden-variety presidential transition moves such as reviewing budgets and eliminating duplicative census operations, there are other proposals that many census watchers find troubling.

They call for more political appointee positions at the bureau, which has largely been run by career civil servants.

“Strong political leadership is needed to increase efficiency and align the Census Bureau’s mission with conservative principles,” Gilman, the former Commerce Department CFO, writes, adding there’s a need to have “both committed political appointees and like-minded career employees” in place to “execute a conservative agenda” as soon as the next Republican president takes office.

During its final months in office, the Trump administration installed four additional political appointees without any past experience at the agency or obvious qualifications for joining the highest ranks. In a 2020 email, the bureau’s top civil servant raised concerns that the appointees showed an “unusually” high level of “engagement in technical matters, which is unprecedented relative to the previous censuses.” After an investigation, an official from the Government Accountability Office told Congress that the appointees ultimately “did not have undue influence into the operations of the census.” Their exact responsibilities, however, remain murky.

Habermann, the former deputy director at the bureau, sees any similar return of this Trump-era move as “the first step to having a set of statistics which the people, the nation will not trust.”

“Some of us would believe that the function of statistics is, if you will, the lifeblood of a democracy,” Habermann adds. “The idea of statistics agencies is to produce reliable, unbiased, trustworthy information that the nation can use in making its decisions and in understanding itself. They want the statistics agency to be a mouthpiece, if you will, for the Republican administration.”

Their plan includes delaying potential changes to how the census asks about race and ethnicity

The plan also criticizes an ongoing review by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget of how the census and federal government surveys ask about people’s racial and ethnic identities. Ahead of the 2020 census, Trump officials stalled that process, which has been driven by years of research by the bureau into how to better reflect the country’s ever-shifting diversity.

The bureau has found that many people of Middle Eastern or North African descent do not identify as white, which is how the federal government officially categorizes them. The agency has also been tracking the rise of a catch-all checkbox known as “Some other race,” now the second-largest racial category in the U.S. after “White.” It’s mainly the result of the difficulty many Latinos face when answering a census question about their race that does not include a checkbox for “Hispanic” or “Latino,” which the government considers to be an ethnicity that can be of any race.

Based on their testing, the bureau’s researchers have recommendedcombining the questions about race and ethnicity into one and adding a checkbox for “Middle Eastern or North African.” OMB is expected to announce decisions on those proposals by summer 2024.

Project 2025’s plan, however, calls for a Republican administration to “take control of this process and thoroughly review any changes” because of “concerns among conservatives that the data under Biden Administration proposals could be skewed to bolster progressive political agendas.”

Meeta Anand, senior program director of census and data equity at The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, says any attempts to modify or roll back changes would be a movement away from accuracy and “truly understanding who we are as a nation.”

“If you were to have a stop and say, ‘Let’s review the questions again. Let’s conduct another research test,’ we would need to see appropriations for the Census Bureau to be able to do that. They would need to mount another test all over again. And there’s no way it would be done in time for 2030,” Anand adds. “Census advocates were trying to get revisions in place for the 2020 census, and that just never happened.”

The plan’s emphasis on a “conservative” approach to the census is raising concerns, including from a former top Trump official

Terri Ann Lowenthal, a former staff director of the House oversight subcommittee for the census who served on former President Barack Obama’s presidential transition team on census issues, sees the plan’s call to get rid of at least one of the bureau’s committees of outside advisers as a way to reduce transparency about how the agency produces the country’s statistics.

“This really is sort of undermining all of the principles and practices that federal statistical agencies should be following. And that is extremely troubling,” says Lowenthal, who is now a census consultant.

For Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, one of the few vocal census advocates in Congress, Project 2025’s proposals run counter to his attempts to shield the bureau from further interference through new legislation.

“This is a clear partisan effort to force an undercount of communities of color. It’s unlawful and unconstitutional,” Schatz says in a statement.

The plan’s call to carry out a “conservative agenda” at the bureau is also catching public criticism from a less likely source: former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.The former top Trump administration official pushed for a citizenship question while overseeing the bureau, and an investigation by the Commerce Department’s Office of Inspector General found that Ross “misrepresented the full rationale” for adding a citizenship question when testifying before Congress in 2018. During the Trump administration, the findings were presented to the Justice Department, which declined to prosecute Ross.

“I think that the job of the census is to provide data. If the elected officials want to interpret that one way or another, well, that’s OK. That’s their prerogative. I don’t think the census should try to shade things in any political direction,” said Ross, who declined to answer questions about a citizenship question but said he believes it is “a valid question.”

On whether there should be more political appointees at the bureau, Ross said it’s not a question he has “really thought about” but noted: “To the degree that the implication was that the census should be more politicized, I do not agree with that.”

Ross said that until NPR contacted him, he was not aware of Project 2025’s census proposals written by Gilman, who served under Ross as the Commerce Department’s CFO.

“I’m frankly a little bit surprised that he regards himself as an expert on what actually happens in terms of the census. I don’t recall him being that involved in the whole process,” Ross said.

For Lowenthal, the census consultant who is a longtime watcher of the national head count, Project 2025’s census recommendations mark a notable shift in the right wing’s approach.

“I have not seen anything remotely like these proposals in this document coming out of previous Republican administrations,” Lowenthal says. “I think that the author or authors of this document clearly understand that if you control the production and flow of information, you can control how people view their government, the actions their government is taking or not taking and their view of the world around them. These proposals should raise alarm bells, I think, for anyone worried about the future.”

Source: A GOP plan for the census would revive Trump’s failed push for a citizenship question